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The 2014 season will be a big one for some of these managers and general managers entering the final years of their current contracts.  For a few, it's just a matter of time until they get extensions; for others, 2014 is their last chance to prove they belong in their current jobs.  This post may not include every eligible skipper or GM, as some clubs don't make management contract terms available to the public.  Thanks to the invaluable Cot's Baseball Contracts for providing many of the contract details.

* Angels.  There were rumors throughout the summer that GM Jerry Dipoto or manager Mike Scioscia could be fired given the Halos' underachieving performance in both 2012 and 2013, but both men will be back in 2014.  Scioscia, of course, is under contract through 2018 but Dipoto is entering the last guaranteed year of his deal.  The Angels have options for both 2015 and 2016 on Dipoto's services, though if the team doesn't contend this season, it seems very likely that Dipoto won't be retained.

* Mariners.  GM Jack Zduriencik had his contract extended through the 2014 season, a move that angered some Seattle fans given the club's run of four consecutive losing seasons.  The team's pursuit of free agent sluggers has been described as "desperate" by some industry sources, which is a long-term danger for a team being led by a general manager who is only focused on his short-term job security.  Zduriencik will be judged harshly if he doesn't obtain a top hitter, but the Mariners simply need to top (or at least approach) the .500 mark for Zduriencik to have any chance to continuing in his current role.  The recent retirement of Mariners president and COO Chuck Armstrong also hints at larger changes coming to the franchise's management structure.

* Astros.  GM Jeff Luhnow and manager Bo Porter both signed multiyear deals when they were respectively hired after the 2011 and 2012 seasons, and those deals could almost be up since the lengths of the contracts aren't known.  It's almost impossible to believe that the club would abandon its vaunted long-term rebuilding plan by letting Luhnow go, of course, and ditching Porter after two years would also seem like an odd move.  Wins and losses won't dictate Porter's fate, as he'll be judged by how the Astros' young talent continues to develop at the Major League level.

* Rangers.  Ron Washington is entering his last year under contract but GM Jon Daniels wants to keep his manager in the fold beyond 2014.  Washington has previously signed a pair of two-year extensions with Texas, though those deals weren't signed until Washingon had already completed his final season.  It's possible the Rangers could again wait to extend their skipper, and despite Daniels' comments, the club might consider a change if it again fails to make a significant postseason run.  Then again, the "wait-and-see" strategy with Washington in the past could have been inspired by former club president Nolan Ryan, and with Ryan gone and Daniels now with more power in the organization, the Rangers may not wait to extend Washington.

* White Sox.  Speaking of "wait-and-see," Robin Ventura took that same tack himself when he turned down a contract extension during Spring Training.  The Pale Hose manager wants to complete his original three-year deal before discussing his future with the team, though Ventura says he's eager to return.  Another 99-loss season, of course, will likely inspire GM Rick Hahn to make a change in the dugout.

* Indians.  This is another situation where details are murky, as GM Chris Antonetti is known to have had his contract extended beyond his original five-year deal with the Tribe that ran out in 2012.  His extension could possibly be up this season, though the odds are Antonetti was locked up for more than just two extra years.  In any case, it's a moot point since Cleveland's playoff appearance last season has certainly given Antonetti more job security.

* Royals.  GM Dayton Moore is entering the final year of his contract and he could be an extension candidate this winter given that the club is coming off its first winning season of Moore's tenure.  The Royals have long been aiming to become legitimate contenders in 2014, so it's possible upper management will see what Moore does this offseason and perhaps what the team does over its first couple of months before locking the general manager up to a new deal.  There's quite a bit of pressure on Moore this season since another dip below the .500 mark could cost him his job.

* Twins.  Terry Ryan's contract specifics aren't known, the Minnesota GM has been rumored to have virtually unlimited job security.  You'd wonder if another 66-96 season would test that security, as the Twins have posted identical losing records in the two full seasons since Ryan returned as the club's general manager.  Given the strong state of the Twins' minor league system, I'd guess that Ryan will be given more time (if he even is a contractual lame duck) to rebuild the franchise even if the Major League team isn't doing well, though the signing of Ricky Nolasco is a sure indicator that Ryan wants better results.

* Blue Jays.  There was speculation that John Gibbons would be fired even before the midway point of the Jays' disappointing 2013 campaign, and while he's still in charge in Toronto, another poor season will surely lead the team to decline their 2015 option for the manager.  GM Alex Anthopoulos' contract status isn't confirmed but he's rumored to be locked up beyond 2014 — if not, however, he could also be facing some heat if the Jays don't contend.

* Red Sox.  Ben Cherington is another GM whose contract tenure isn't known, though in the wake of a World Series title, Boston isn't going to let him go anywhere.

* Yankees.  Brian Cashman is entering one of the most important offseasons of his tenure as New York's general manager, and the fact that Cashman is entering the last year of his deal only adds to the pressure.  Brian McCann is the first major signing of what should be a busy winter for the Yankees, though if Cashman's additions don't get the Yankees back into the playoffs, his job will be in serious jeopardy.

* Braves.  Both manager Fredi Gonzalez and GM Frank Wren are entering the final year of their contracts.  Consecutive playoff appearances bode well for one or the both of them to receive contract extensions before Opening Day.

* Mets.  Sandy Alderson is facing pressure to upgrade the Mets lineup this offseason, though any hopes of contending in 2014 probably went down the drain thanks to Matt Harvey's Tommy John surgery.  The Mets hold an option on Alderson for 2015 that I'd expect them to exercise (perhaps as soon as this winter) given his reputation in baseball, though adding a big bat or two would certainly cement Alderson's case.

* Pirates.  The club holds options on both manager Clint Hurdle and GM Neal Huntington for 2015, which will surely be exercised in the wake of Pittsburgh's breakthrough playoff season.  You can probably expect discussions about longer-term deals for both men as well this winter.

* Reds.  Dusty Baker's firing hints at some impatience in Cincinnati, as the Reds failed to advance past the NLDS in 2010 and 2012, and then lost the NL wild card game last season after spending just under $107MM in payroll (a club record).  With one change already made at manager, you wonder if GM Walt Jocketty could also be on the hot seat as he enters the final year of his deal.

* Brewers.  Ron Roenicke is contracted through 2014 and the Brew Crew hold an option on their manager for 2015.  You could argue that the Brewers' poor record last season was due to factors beyond Roenicke's control (i.e. injuries and the Ryan Braun PED suspension) but the club will definitely need to show some improvement if Roenicke is to continue in Milwaukee.

* Diamondbacks.  Kirk Gibson and Kevin Towers share the same contract situation; both the manager and general manager are signed through 2014 with club options for 2015 and 2016, and the D'Backs have reportedly declined to pick up those options.  While the options could be exercised at a later date, between that news and the shakeup of Arizona's coaching staff, it appears as if Towers and especially Gibson have little wiggle room.  Both men need the Snakes to take a step forward after finishing with consecutive 81-81 records.     

* Dodgers.  It's been a roller-coaster season for Don Mattingly, who was seemingly on the verge of being fired in June before the Dodgers went on an incredible hot streak to win the NL West and advance to the NLCS.  That NLCS appearance triggered a vesting option that gave Mattingly another year under contract for 2014, though the manager has been quite open about his desire for a long-term commitment.  While Mattingly and the club are negotiating that extension, expectations are high enough in Los Angeles that Mattingly will need at least another NLCS appearance to keep his job past this season.

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Now that the dust has settled, let's take a look around at some reactions to today's important deal sending third baseman David Freese and righty Fernando Salas to the Angels in exchange for center fielder Peter Bourjos and outfield prospect Randal Grichuk. 

• For a broad account of the deal, including some reactions from participants, see this piece from MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch. Cards' GM John Mozeliak emphasized that the club pulled the trigger to add speed and center field capability, while noting that Grickhuk's inclusion was a "critical" factor in getting the deal done.
• Though Mozeliak said that a veteran second bagger could still be brought in, he also indicated that the club was prepared to rely primarily on Kolten Wong. Meanwhile, top prospect Oscar Taveras could see time in right field and play a bench role, leaving the club with what Mozeliak calls "more flexibility moving forward," reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Sulia). 
• While the two sides discussed including shortstop Erick Aybar, writes Goold, the asking price was too steep for Mozeliak to bite. With both the Orioles and now the Angels having dangled a shortstop at St. Louis from a position of strength, and the expected free agent money for the few attractive options going higher by the day, Goold says we are seeing a clear seller's market at the position. His Post-Dispatch colleague Bernie Miklasz says that the Angels were eyeing Shelby Miller, making Mozeliak's refusal understandable.
• Miklasz was among the many who liked this deal for the Cards. As he put it: "Mozeliak did a good job here. It's as simple as that. He received plus value and added youth, speed and defense — and saved payroll – in moving an expendable player in Freese."
• From the Halos' perspective, GM Jerry Dipoto said that his club "feel[s] like we're getting one of the most productive third base bats in baseball over the last three years," tweets the Los Angeles Times' Bill Shaikin. As Shaikin later noted, Freese does rank tenth in composite OPS out of the 21 players with at least 1,000 hot corner plate appearances since 2011. Dipoto also said that Freese "knows how to drive in the important run" and "provides what we think is a more-than-acceptable solution" to the team's third base hole, as MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez reports in his write-up of the deal. Looking back, Mozeliak explained that Freese's magical 2011 run of success raised expectations to an unsustainable point and makes a fresh start a good idea, MLB.com's Gonzalez reports via Twitlonger.
• With relatively little open salary space and a major starting pitching void in Anaheim, Shaikin indicates that this deal carries a lot of risk for Dipoto. Other trade candidates like Mark Trumbo and Howie Kendrick have not sparked interest from other teams that would consider parting with young starting pitching, Shaikin says, and Aybar was not enough (yet, at least) to get St. Louis to budge on one of its prime young arms. Yet by sending out Bourjos, whose low cost, good defense, and fairly high floor would have appealed to a wide range of other clubs, the Angels have parted with a player that could have been a significant piece in a deal for a new arm.
• Even while casting doubt on Bourjos's ability to replicate his 2011 campaign at the dish, ESPN.com's Keith Law (Insider link) likes it for the Cards, though he notes that Freese has enough power upside that the deal could ultimately turn out well for the Halos.
• For Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, who rates Bourjos as at least a three-win player while noting that his career Isolated Slugging mark is higher than that of Freese, the swap is a clear win for St. Louis. His takeaway: "The Angels needed a third baseman, I guess, but they traded a good player for a worse player who costs more."
• MLBTR's Steve Adams nicely summed up the trade: "All told, the Angels are dealing three years of Bourjos and one of their top prospects for two years of Freese and three years of Salas in addition to agreeing to take on roughly $4MM in additional salary in the 2014 season." From that perspective, particularly given that the Cards got the younger players, it is tough not to like it for St. Louis — even if you are relatively high on Freese as a bounceback player and think that Bourjos has a limited ceiling. (For what it's worth, 2014 Steamer projections expect 2.3 WAR for Freese over 535 plate appearances and 2.6 WAR over 493 plate appearances for Bourjos.) It is worth noting that the low likely starting point for Bourjos's arbitration salary, along with his generally meager home run and RBI output, mean that he will very likely be on a lower arbitration salary arc than Freese for the rest of his years of eligibility.

MLBPA executive director Michael Weiner has died of brain cancer, Diamondbacks pitcher Brad Ziegler tweets. Weiner was 51.

Weiner joined the union staff as a lawyer in 1988 and replaced Don Fehr as its executive director in 2009. In 2011, Weiner led the union to agree to the Collective Bargaining Agreement that currently governs Major League Baseball. Weiner will likely be remembered in part for paving the way for punishments for the use of PEDs throughout the game. But he also helped negotiate the addition of a second Wild Card team, the move of the Houston Astros to the American League, the expansion of instant replay, and changes in team compensation for departing free agents.

In August 2012, it was reported that Weiner was being treated for a brain tumor, which turned out to be inoperable. He continued to work despite the diagnosis, keeping a full schedule even during the 2013 season. Weiner is survived by his wife, Diane, and three daughters.

Former MLB first baseman Tony Clark was Weiner's deputy executive director. He will become MLBPA's acting executive director.

Many players were added to 40-man rosters with yesterday's deadline, as seen here.  Current counts by team:

AL East

• Orioles: 36
• Red Sox: 39
• Yankees: 39 (does not include Brendan Ryan)
• Rays: 37
• Blue Jays: 39

AL Central

• White Sox: 39
• Indians: 40 (does not include David Murphy)
• Tigers: 39
• Royals: 40 (does not include Jason Vargas)
• Twins: 39

AL West

• Astros: 37
• Angels: 40
• Athletics: 39
• Mariners: 38
• Rangers: 38

NL East

• Braves: 40
• Marlins: 39
• Mets: 40
• Phillies: 38 (does not include Carlos Ruiz)
• Nationals: 40

NL Central

• Cubs: 39
• Reds: 40 (does not include Skip Schumaker)
• Brewers: 40
• Pirates: 40
• Cardinals: 36

NL West

• Diamondbacks: 40
• Rockies: 39 (does not include LaTroy Hawkins)
• Dodgers: 34
• Padres: 40
• Giants: 40 (does not include Javier Lopez)

2:28pm: Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal reports that once the umpires' and players' unions approve the system, a separate vote to enact the rule changes will take place when the owners meet in January.

The new challenge system will be verbal. Beyond that, if managers walk on the field to protest a call, they will no longer be able to challenge it. Costa quotes Manfred: "What we'd like to have is a trade-off. We no longer spend time arguing, and in return, you have a right to challenge. What we want to avoid is arguing for a while and then you challenge."

According to Manfred, umpires will still be able to initiate replays even after a manager has exhausted his challenges. That is still one of the details to be discussed by umpires.

NOV. 14, 11:05am: : ESPN's Jerry Crasnick tweets that MLB owners have approved funding for replay expansion in 2014. The system will still need to be approved by the players' and umpires' unions, though their approval is fully expected, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

MLB COO Rob Manfred confirmed to reporters, including Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, that the new replay system will be based on manager challengers (Twitter link). Rosenthal adds that there will be a maximum of two challenges per team, per game, regardless of inning. Davidi also tweets that managers will lose their second challenge if they are incorrect on the first one.

AUG. 15: Major League Baseball is prepared to move forward with a radical expansion of instant replay, but an official announcement will be delayed until November, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

The new replay policy will allow managers to ask for replay reviews in a style that is similar to the NFL's challenge system. Managers will have three challenges — one in the first six innings of the game and two beyond that. Under the new system, which will be phased in starting next season, 89 percent of plays will be deemed reviewable. Should a manager exhaust his three challenges, the umpiring crew can still convene to conduct their own review of a questionable home run.

MLB vice president Joe Torre, former Braves GM John Schuerholz and advisor Tony La Russa presented the proposal to all 30 owners today. Commissioner Bud Selig told Nightengale that the proposal appeared to be widely accepted, and the commissioner called today a "historic" day for the game of baseball. A formal announcement won't occur until after the quarterly owners' meetings on Nov. 13-14.

Dust off your crystal ball again, it's time for MLBTR's third annual free agent prediction contest! Predict destinations for our top 50 free agents, with the chance to win fantastic prizes and bragging rights over your friends and the MLBTR writing team.  Last year's winner had 20 correct; can you beat that?

How To Play

• Click here to make picks for our top 50 free agents.  For each player you can choose any of the 30 teams, as well as Retirement or Japan.
• A Facebook account is required to participate in this contest.  You can log in with the button up top, or by using the Save Your Picks button at the bottom.
• Feel free to leave your picks incomplete for now, as long as you save them using the button at the bottom.  The contest is open now and runs until 11:59pm central time tonight.  Make sure to have something chosen and saved for all 50 players by the deadline, or else you will not be eligible for the contest.  We suggest you save periodically after every 5-10 picks in case it times out.
• Players on our top 50 that sign before the November 10th deadline are considered freebies, although you still need to go in and make the correct pick.  It's kind of like getting points for putting your name on the test – seems like a no-brainer, but a few people still won't do it.
• The leaderboard will rank contestants by "batting average" on correct picks, once players start signing.  The leaderboard will show everyone's full names and Facebook profile picture.

Rules

• Final picks must be saved by November 10th at 11:59pm central time – no exceptions.
• MLBTR writers are not eligible for prizes.
• One entry per person, please.
• With regard to prizes, ties in batting average will be decided by totaling the ranking number of each correctly-guessed free agent and taking the lowest total, rewarding contestants for being right on better free agents.  If people are still tied after that method is applied, prizes will be distributed at MLBTR's discretion by choosing among tied contestants randomly.
• Prize winners must respond to an email message within 48 hours.

Prizes

• $1,000 in cash prizes to be distributed among the top five finishers
• 2014 Baseball America Handbook
• One-year digital subscription to Baseball America

On Wednesday, I pulled together some salary information from Cot's Baseball Contracts in an attempt to give some context to teams' overall future salary commitments. Check out that post for background, and bear in mind we are only talking about post-2014 payroll. With the benefit of receiving comments and thinking about what I wrote, I decided to utilize the information in a few more ways. 

First, as I noted in a comment, simply summing the future obligations only tells part of the story. A better, more complete analysis would discount later-in-time salary to a present value. Dave Cameron had a great piece recently on Fangraphs discussing the way in which contracts for elite free agents have tended to tack on additional years at the back end rather than increasing average annual value for a shorter term. As he noted, baseball payrolls have grown at about 3.5% on average over the last ten years. That kind of inflation — in concert with the time-value of money — makes a future dollar less valuable than a present one. 

The difficulty remains in arriving at an appropriate rate by which to discount the future obligations. While I am not equipped to undertake that complicated and inexact task, it occurred to me that there is another option: simply chart out the different possible rates to show what would occur at a given percentage. I chose to use a range between zero and ten percent because opening day payrolls have increased by around 5-6% over the last two years and because the reported infusion of TV money could theoretically lead to a jump in salaries. Bear in mind, though, that the higher end of the scale is exceedingly unlikely — it is a ten-year period, after all — and is really included for illustrative purposes.

Here are the results, which show how different discount rates would impact each teams' future obligations. You'll need to open the image to view it. 

[All numbers are in millions. An explanation on the columns: "x% discount" shows the present value of a club's future obligations at a given discount rate; "sum saved" shows the difference between the non-discounted obligations and the value as discounted; and "pct saved" shows the relative impact on each team's obligations at each rate. And I'll note that I updated the information to include the Rangers' recent extension of Martin Perez.]

Remember, there is nothing inherently good or bad about taking on, as opposed to avoiding, future obligations. And there are good reasons to backload, or frontload, those commitments. This is just a tool to help understand the numbers. Click below for a closer look at a few salient aspects of this chart, and some additional team-by-team information and observations.

Read more

By my count, 199 players are currently arbitration eligible and unsigned for 2014.  More than 30 of those can be considered non-tender candidates.  The deadline for teams to decide is December 2nd at 11pm central time.  Non-tendering a player makes him a free agent.  Below is my subjective list of non-tender candidates.  Please note that not all of them will actually be non-tendered.  Click here for MLBTR's projected salaries for these players, if they are tendered contracts.  Click here for our non-tender tracker, and here for our arbitration tracker.

Position Players

Tony Abreu
Darwin Barney
Daric Barton
Tyler Flowers
Sam Fuld
Mat Gamel
Chris Getz
Jesus Guzman
Brett Hayes
Paul Janish
Garrett Jones
Don Kelly
Lou Marson
Michael McKenry
Chris Nelson
Jayson Nix
Justin Ruggiano
Seth Smith
Travis Snider
Chris Stewart
Drew Stubbs 

Pitchers

Scott Atchison
John Axford
Andrew Bailey
Daniel Bard
Mitchell Boggs
Scott Elbert
Tommy Hanson
Frank Herrmann
Daniel Hudson
Kevin Jepsen
Cristhian Martinez
Fernando Rodriguez
Esmil Rogers
Joe Thatcher
Josh Tomlin
Jerome Williams
Blake Wood 

With the 2014 offseason upon us, there will be plenty of discussion of how prospective free agents, arbitration eligibles, and extension candidates fit into their teams' plans. To help assess all manner of prospective moves, I pulled together some of the wealth of data available at Cot's Baseball Contracts with an eye to putting it all in a broader context.

Alas, Wendy Thurm of Fangraphs beat me to the punch with respect to payrolls for the coming year, compiling estimates of each teams' 2014 salary obligations as they stand at present. (Thurm utilizes Cot's information, adds in recent signings, and incorporates the arbitration projections of MLBTR's Matt Swartz, then employs some judgment to reach her figures.) You'll want to give that piece a read.

But with the 2013 season in the books, Thurm's list is now a gauge of present commitments. When considering long-term contracts, possibly including back-loading mechanisms to obtain present production and pay for it later, it is also important to look down the line.

So, I offer the present figures, graphs, and observations to work in conjunction with the aforementioned breakdown. I have included only actual, guaranteed dollars (including buyouts) — i.e., no estimated arbitration obligations or pre-arb salaries. The result is not intended to be a realistic look at teams' complete commitments, but does reflect the amount of financial flexibility that each club has to work with. (After all, if an organization really cannot afford a player eligible for arbitration in, say, 2015, they have the option to trade them or cut them loose by a non-tender.) While I hasten to add that I lack the background to support a true statistical analysis of these numbers, I hope the following will give MLBTR's readers some interesting things to consider.

We'll start with a chart showing the entirety of every team's future guaranteed contract commitments. Deeming 2014 as present obligations, the year range is from 2015 to 2024. In total, MLB teams have signed deals promising players over $4.8 billion to play for them over the decade beginning in 2015. Total commitments* range from $513.82MM (the Dodgers) to $0 (the Marlins). Without further ado (click image to enlarge):

[*Amounts include obligations to players no longer under team control. Bonuses are spread over the life of a contract, as Cot's maintains its figures. The Dodgers' recent signing of Alexander Guerrero is reflected as providing four equal, $7MM salaries for the life of the deal since year-by-year details have not been reported.]

As the chart shows, the Dodgers have guaranteed over $100MM more to their players than any other team in baseball. A few other clubs immediately stand out at the bottom end, with the Athletics leading a group of near-term expected contenders (including the Royals and Pirates) with less than $50MM owed past the current year.

Click below for some more observations and figures …

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