Uncategorized News & Rumors

The Cardinals and Red Sox are among the contenders who may be looking for relief help come July.  Others with bullpen issues at least have designs on contending, even if they're under .500.  Here's a look at some relievers who might be available this summer:

• Fernando Rodney, Kyle Farnsworth, Jamey Wright, Rays.
• Jose Veras and Wesley Wright, Astros.
• Ryan Madson, Scott Downs, Jerome Williams, Angels.
• Steve Cishek, Mike Dunn, Chad Qualls, and Jon Rauch, Marlins.
• Kevin Gregg, James Russell, Carlos Marmol, Cubs.
• Huston Street, Luke Gregerson, Dale Thayer, Padres.
• Frank Francisco, LaTroy Hawkins, Brandon Lyon, Mets.
• Darren Oliver, Blue Jays.
• Jesse Crain, Matt Lindstrom, Matt Thornton, White Sox.
• Oliver Perez, Mariners.
• J.P. Howell, Matt Guerrier, Dodgers.
• Tom Gorzelanny, Mike Gonzalez, Brewers.

A few of these teams might hang on as fringe contenders, others could hang on to their better relievers for credibility's sake, and some may prefer to retain those who are under control beyond 2013 such as Cishek, Gregerson, Dunn, Russell, Lindstrom, and Thornton.  Russell, a lefty with the Cubs, could have particular appeal because he is under team control through 2015 and has been successful so far.

Rentals such as Mike Morse, Kendrys Morales, Matt Garza, Scott Feldman, Ricky Nolasco, Edinson Volquez, and Frank Francisco figure to have their names kicked around the trade market this summer, assuming decent performance from the players and a lack of playoff potential from their employers.  More appealing, however, are players who are under team control beyond this year.  Names to watch:

• David Price, Rays.  Price owns a 6.25 ERA on the season, but his struggles with the longball and hits allowed shouldn't last.  However, his average fastball velocity is at a career-worst 93.3 miles per hour.  The Rays remain a legitimate contender, but if they fall back over the next few months and Price's numbers stabilize, there will be a feeding frenzy.  He's under team control through 2015, though only a few select teams could assemble the necessary package of premium young talent.
• Chase Headley, Padres.  The Padres have talked about making a franchise-record offer to retain Headley, which doesn't mean much since their biggest contract was worth $52MM.  If Headley sticks to his word of not negotiating during the season, the Padres must choose between trading him this summer at peak value, or being forced to deal him during the offseason if talks break down.  The Padres could also look to move controllable players such as Carlos Quentin, Huston Street, Luke Gregerson, and Nick Hundley.
• Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins.  The young slugger is under control through 2016.  He's currently on the DL with a hamstring strain, and the Marlins probably won't want to sell low on the biggest trade chip this summer.  The Marlins may weigh trading Kevin Slowey (under control through next year) or Steve Cishek (through 2017).
• Josh Willingham, Twins.  The Twins are only a game under .500, but if they fall out contention, Willingham could command a premium since he is signed affordably through 2014.  The Twins also have appealing, under-contract relievers in Glen Perkins and Jared Burton.
• Andre Ethier, Dodgers.  The Dodgers could look to unload Ethier's contract, which pays $52MM over 2014-17.
• Jake Peavy, White Sox.  Assuming Peavy's back spasms turn out to be a minor issue, the Sox could market him as something close to an ace.  He's signed through next year but can trigger a player option for 2015 by meeting certain criteria.  Alex Rios and Matt Thornton could be popular as well.
• Tommy Hanson, Angels.  If the Angels aren't contending and feel they might non-tender Hanson after the season, a trade makes sense.  Same goes for the Brewers' John Axford and the Padres' Clayton Richard.
• Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell, Wesley Wright, Justin Maxwell, Chris Carter, Astros.  No one seems off-limits on the Astros, though Jose Altuve would be extremely difficult to pry loose.  Norris is under team control through 2015, Harrell through '17.
• Cliff Lee, Phillies.  Lee is under contract through 2015, with a pricey club/vesting option for '16.  He can block trades to 21 teams each season.  If the Phillies decide to blow up the roster, getting a deal similar to Boston's purge of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett could work.  Lee could serve as the Gonzalez piece, with Ryan Howard tacked on to fill the Crawford role.
• Ike Davis and Jon Niese, Mets.  I generally considered these two as building blocks for the Mets before this season, but if they're playing acceptably this summer I wonder if the team might be willing to discuss them.  Daniel Murphy and Bobby Parnell would hold appeal to other teams as well.
• Alfonso Soriano and David DeJesus, Cubs.  Owing Soriano $18MM for 2014 is generally not viewed as a plus, but he is technically controllable.  With a $6.5MM club option for '14, DeJesus is more appealing.  The Cubs could shop Carlos Villanueva, Scott Hairston, and Nate Schierholtz as well.  It's also worth noting that team ace Jeff Samardzija is under control only through 2015, so if the team can't lock him up and things look bleak for '14, they should entertain offers.
• The Blue Jays are 11-21 on the season and appear likely to become deadline sellers.  While controllable players such as Brandon Morrow and Colby Rasmus would draw interest, it seems more likely to me that the Jays will re-tool and make another push for 2014.  If so, dealing controllable players might not make sense.  I feel similarly about the Brewers.
• The most commonly traded controllable players are, of course, prospects.  We may see names like Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt (Rangers), Nick Castellanos (Tigers), Gregory Polanco (Pirates), Matt Davidson (Diamondbacks), and any number of Cardinals arms bandied about in the coming months.

Catcher Brian McCann will join the Braves tonight in Cincinnati to make his season debut against the Reds.  The 29-year-old missed the first month and change of the 2013 season following August shoulder surgery last year.  It's a big year for McCann, who will be eligible for free agency after the season.  Six other impending free agents project to make their season debuts this month: Corey Hart, Matt Garza, Curtis Granderson, Colby Lewis, Francisco Liriano, and Frank Francisco.  After beginning with all that positive news, here's a look at 2014 free agents currently on the shelf:

• Roy Halladay is likely to hit the DL for a shoulder ailment that dates back to April 24th, which he says is different from last year's malady.  The Phillies' righty will fly to Los Angeles this week to be examined by Dr. Lewis Yocum.  Halladay, 36 this month, has an 8.65 ERA in 34 1/3 innings and seems likely to sign a one-year deal in the offseason.
• The Blue Jays' Josh Johnson is on the DL with triceps soreness, and we haven't heard anything about his timetable.  JJ is headed further downward on our 2014 Free Agents Power Rankings, while Halladay is out of the top ten.
• White Sox righty Gavin Floyd has an appointment this morning with orthopedic surgeon David Altcheck, notes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Tommy John surgery is a strong possibility for Floyd, who would then project to miss at least the first month of the 2014 season under his new contract.
• Speaking of free agents signed coming off Tommy John surgery, the Cubs' Scott Baker resumed his throwing program a week ago.  Baker has had some setbacks after the April 2012 procedure.
• Oakland's Coco Crisp had an amazing start to the season, but hasn't played 140 games in a season since '07.  He's on the DL with a strained hamstring.  That's the same injury affecting Baltimore's Brian Roberts.
• Aside from Granderson, the Yankees have future free agents Derek Jeter, Kevin Youkilis, and Joba Chamberlain on the DL.  Jeter, who fractured his ankle last year, will not reveal his target date for his season debut, but the team expects him out until after the All-Star break.  Jeter will face a $9.5MM player option after the season with a $3MM buyout.  Youkilis has a lumbar spine strain, while Chamberlain strained his right oblique.
• The Mets' Johan Santana is out for the season with shoulder surgery, while the Cardinals can't count on Rafael Furcal (Tommy John) or Chris Carpenter (thoracic outlet syndrome) this year.  The Orioles' Tsuyoshi Wada signed a two-year, $8.14MM deal in December 2011, but had Tommy John surgery in May 2012 and has yet to make his big league debut. 
• Dodgers starters Chris Capuano (strained left calf) and Ted Lilly (strained rib cage muscle) both reside on the DL, at a time when they actually had an opportunity to be in the rotation. 
• The Indians' Brett Myers is weeks away from a return to action after suffering elbow inflammation.  Oakland's Chris Young is battling a strained left quad, while the Tigers' Octavio Dotel has elbow inflammation.

If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, Week In Review posts and Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:

• MLBTR Chats - Join Tim Dierkes every Tuesday at 2pm CDT to chat about the latest trades, signings and rumblings around the Major Leagues.
• Baseball Blogs Weigh In - Every Friday, I feature some of the best writing from baseball blogs around the web. Whether it's opinion, stats or something else entirely, you can connect to the best of the blogosphere once a week on MLBTR. If you want to submit a post of yours, you can reach me at: zachbbwi@gmail.com.
• Week In Review - It's remarkable how much happens in seven days. Every Sunday night, MLBTR summarizes the week's biggest stories in our Week In Review posts.
• MLBTR Originals - Edward Creech gathers all our original analysis and reporting in one place every Sunday night.

Yesterday, Tim Dierkes took a look at the hardest-throwing pitchers in the upcoming 2014 free agent class. While we're dealing with small sample sizes through the season's first month of course, monitoring trends like that throughout the year can help paint a picture of what the offseason will be like. Here's a look at another desirable trend in free agent hurlers — ground-ball rate — with April in the books…

Starters

1. Jake Westbrook — 63.1 percent ($9.5MM mutual option)
2. Jon Garland — 55.2 percent
3. Tim Hudson — 54.6 percent
4. Jason Marquis — 54.2 percent
5. Hiroki Kuroda — 52.4 percent
6. Roberto Hernandez — 52.2 percent
7. Paul Maholm — 51.9 percent
8. Ubaldo Jimenez — 50.7 percent
9. Jon Lester — 49.5 percent ($13MM club option)
10. Andy Pettitte — 49.5 percent

Relievers

1. Scott Downs — 78.1 percent
2. J.P. Howell — 68 percent
3. Derek Lowe — 64.3 percent
4. Matt Lindstrom — 60.7 percent ($4MM club option)
5. Eric O'Flaherty — 60.6 percent
6. Casey Janssen — 57.9 percent ($4MM club option)
7. Chad Qualls — 57.1 percent
8. Matt Albers — 56.5 percent
9. Scott Atchison — 52.8 percent
10. LaTroy Hawkins — 50 percent

Last offseason, Kuroda was the top ground-ball starter, and Sean Burnett topped the charts for free agent relievers. Both were paid well this offseason, with Kuroda receiving $15MM from the Yankees for one year and Burnett signing a two-year, $8MM with the Angels.

Among this year's group of starters, only Jimenez appears on both lists, though he will need to rediscover some semblance of control to establish much of a market for his services. As far as relievers go, Lindstrom and Albers appear on both lists, though grounders are less emphasized than strikeouts among late-inning arms.

We're officially through with one month of the 2013 campaign, meaning we're one month closer to the busiest time of the time of the regular season here at MLBTR. The trade deadline still hasn't quite taken shape, but if May 2012 was any indication, there should still be plenty of noteworthy transactions this month. Here's a look at the notable moves from last May, courtesy of MLBTR's Transaction Tracker…

Extensions

• The Orioles and Adam Jones agreed to a six-year, $85.5MM contract extension.
• The D-backs and Miguel Montero agreed to a five-year, $60MM contract extension.

Trades

• The Angels acquired Ernesto Frieri — currently the team's closer — from the Padres in exchange for infielder Alexi Amarista and right-hander Donn Roach.
• The Marlins acquired Justin Ruggiano from the Astros in exchange for minor league catcher Jobduan Morales.
• The Rays acquired Drew Sutton from the Pirates for cash just one day after the Pirates had acquired Sutton from the Braves (also for cash considerations).
• The Red Sox acquired Scott Podsednik from the Phillies for cash considerations.
• The Cubs acquired Koyie Hill from the Reds for cash considerations.
• The Blue Jays acquired catcher Paul Phillips from the Brewers for cash considerations.
• The Cardinals acquired infielder Jamie Romak from the Royals for cash.
• The Phillies and Rays swapped outfielders Rich Thompson and Kyle Hudson.
• The Pirates acquired first baseman Jeff Larish from the Red Sox for cash considerations.
• The Rangers acquired Ryan Spilborghs from the Indians for cash considerations.

Waiver Claims

• The Yankees claimed Ryota Igarashi from the Blue Jays.
• The Padres claimed Neil Wagner from the Athletics.
• The Rangers claimed John Gaub from the Rays.
• The Brewers claimed Cody Ransom from the Diamondbacks.
• The Yankees claimed Matt Antonelli from the Orioles.
• The Padres claimed Eric Stults from the White Sox (Stults is still a member of San Diego's rotation).
• The Athletics claimed Travis Blackley from the Giants.
• The Yankees claimed Justin Thomas from the Red Sox.
• The Twins claimed Erik Komatsu from the Cardinals.

International Signings

• The Yankees signed Cuban outfielder Adonis Garcia to a one-year minor league deal worth $400K.

Major League Signings

• The Rangers signed Roy Oswalt to a one-year, $5MM deal with another $1MM worth of incentives available. Oswalt, of course, did not sign this offseason either.
• The Dodgers signed Bobby Abreu to a Major League contract following his release from the Angels.

Last offseason, the hardest-throwing free agent based on 2012 velocity data from FanGraphs was reliever Brandon League.  With an average fastball velocity of 95.2 miles per hour, League signed what most considered an above-market three-year, $22.5MM deal with the Dodgers that also has a vesting option for 2016 based on games finished.  League was followed by free agent relievers Matt Lindstrom (94.8), Jonathan Broxton (94.7), and Mark Lowe (93.9).  As you might expect, flame-throwing free agent starters were harder to come by.  Edwin Jackson (93.5), Francisco Liriano (93.0), and Jeremy Guthrie (92.8) led that group.  Which 2014 free agents can boast of the best velocity so far this season?

Relievers

1. Joel Hanrahan – 96.9
2. Fernando Rodney – 95.6
3. Matt Lindstrom – 94.5 (club option)
4. Jesse Crain – 94.3
5. Joba Chamberlain – 94.0
6. Matt Thornton – 93.8 (club option)
7. Boone Logan – 93.3
8. Matt Albers – 93.1
9. Grant Balfour – 93.0
10. Jose Valverde – 92.9

Starters

    1.  Josh Johnson – 92.6
    2.  A.J. Burnett – 92.4
    3.  Jason Hammel and Edinson Volquez – 92.3
    5.  Phil Hughes – 92.0
    6.  Ervin Santana – 91.7
    7.  Gavin Floyd – 91.5
    8.  Mike Pelfrey – 91.3
    9.  Scott Kazmir – 91.2
  10.  Ubaldo Jimenez – 91.2

Average velocity for all qualified starting pitchers this year is 90.4 miles per hour, exactly what you'll find from 2014 free agent Hiroki Kuroda.

More than $1.1 billion across 117 contract years was committed to 32 players with less than six years of Major League service time during the 2010-11 offseason extension period, spanning October 2010 through April 2011.  Ryan Braun, Adrian Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki each signed extensions worth more than $100MM.  Two years removed from this extension period, which contracts now appear the most regrettable?

• Dan Uggla has provided some value over the past two seasons, hitting 36 home runs in 2011 and drawing a good amount of walks last year.  Still, at .223/.326/.416 since the contract was signed, the Braves' second baseman has fallen short of the level of production that compelled the team to commit five years and $62MM.
• Chad Billingsley's three-year, $35MM extension didn't look bad when it was signed in March 2011, but it covers 2012-14 and Tommy John surgery will take a big bite out of the righty's innings for the Dodgers.
• The Marlins' Ricky Nolasco has a career FIP of 3.83 against an ERA of 4.47, so he is probably overvalued by a FIP-based method.  Nolasco is finishing out a three-year, $26.5MM extension, and the Marlins are expected to have to eat money or take back salary in order to move him.
• Cubs reliever Carlos Marmol signed a three-year, $20MM extension.  Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry guaranteed Marmol's final two arbitration years and also bought a year of free agency for $9.8MM.  Perhaps Marmol was an unhittable strikeout machine in 2010, but he'd also shown a penchant for walking six or seven batters per nine innings.  Once Marmol became just a bit more hittable, the wheels fell off.  
• With the player coming off a .254/.324/.350 season, was it really necessary to buy out one of Jason Bartlett's free agent years?  Former Padres GM Jed Hoyer did so at a cost of $5.5MM for 2012, only to release the shortstop in August of that year.

The projected Super Two cutoff is two years and 119 days of Major League service time, according to Ryan Galla of CAA Baseball.  This number is often written as 2.119.  Among the players expected to qualify after the 2013 season: Brandon Belt, Steve Cishek, Andy Dirks, Felix Doubront, Lucas Duda, Tyler Flowers, Charlie Furbush, Eric Hosmer, Lance Lynn, Jake McGee, Michael McKenry, Mike Minor, Chris Nelson, Juan Nicasio, Ben Revere, Pedro Strop, Dayan Viciedo, and Vance Worley.  Lynn's service time will be the same as the projected cutoff, and Doubront will be a day above it.

Players with at least three but less than six years of Major League service are considered arbitration eligible.  Additionally, a player with at least two years but less than three is eligible for arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and ranks in the top 22% in total service in the two-to-three class.  The current collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect December 12th, 2011, raised that Super Two percentage from 17% to 22%.  Bottom line: Super Two players are arbitration eligible four times instead of the usual three.

Previous Super Two cutoffs:

• 2012: 2.139
• 2011: 2.146
• 2010: 2.122
• 2009: 2.139

MLBTR's Non-Tender Tracker lists 37 players who were non-tendered by their teams last offseason. Of those 37 non-tenders, some re-signed with their old teams while others latched on with new clubs. Here's a look at how those who have secured a Major League roster spot are faring in the early stages of 2013…

• Robert Andino, non-tendered by the Mariners, re-signed with the Mariners: Andino is batting just .161/.181/.226 in 33 plate appearances thus far. 
• Scott Atchison, non-tendered by the Red Sox, signed with the Mets: Atchison and LaTroy Hawkins both inked minor league deals with the Mets this winter and broke camp with the team. He's posted a 3.86 ERA in 9 1/3 innings thus far, though he's struck out just four against three walks.
• Ben Francisco, non-tendered by the Rays, signed with the Yankees: Francisco didn't hit much for the Astros or Rays last year, and he's continued that trend by going 2-for-25 to open the season with the Yankees.
• Tom Gorzelanny, non-tendered by the Nationals, signed with the Brewers: Gorzelanny has been solid with the Brew Crew thus far, yielding just two runs in nine innings of work. Despite his notable platoon split, it's actually right-handers who have yet to get a hit off the lefty.
• Jack Hannahan, non-tendered by the Indians, signed with the Reds: Hannahan was the recipient of a surprising two-year deal. He's been terrific in limited time thus far, batting .350/.381/.450 in 21 trips to the plate. He's played both third and first base.
• Rich Hill, non-tendered by the Red Sox, signed with the Indians: Hill has only totaled four innings across five appearances thus far, but he's been reasonably effective in that small sample, allowing just a pair of earned runs.
• Jeff Karstens, non-tendered by the Pirates, re-signed with the Pirates: Karstens technically doesn't fit this list as he's not on the Pirates' Major League roster, but that's only due to injury. He'll join the Buccos' rotation when he's healthy. I was surprised to see him non-tendered and by the lack of interest as a free agent.
• John Lannan, non-tendered by the Nationals, signed with the Phillies: Lannan's first two starts with the Phils went well (four runs in 13 innings), but he was rocked by the Reds in his last outing and landed on the DL with a sprained tendon in his knee. He'll miss another six weeks or so and could lose his rotation spot to Jonathan Pettibone.
• Wil Nieves, non-tendered by the D-backs, re-signed with the D-backs: Nieves signed with the D-backs after getting cut by the Rockies last summer. He's been solid in all 21 games he's appeared for Arizona since August, hitting .311/.340/.400.
• Manny Parra, non-tendered by the Brewers, signed with the Reds: Parra has been pretty brutal for the Reds. He's allowed four hits in three of his six outings and walked the only batter he faced in another. He's been charged with six runs in 6 2/3 innings for an 8.10 ERA.
• Mike Pelfrey, non-tendered by the Mets, signed with the Twins: Kudos to Pelfrey on being ready for Opening Day after Tommy John surgery in May 2012, but the results have been dreadful. He's allowed 15 earned runs in 17 innings with just six strikeouts and 29 hits allowed.
• Mark Reynolds, non-tendered by the Orioles, signed with the Indians: If a "Non-Tendered MVP" award existed, Reynolds would be the front-runner. He's batting .283/.371/.700  with seven homers and has even cut his strikeout rate to a reasonable 22.8 percent.
• Derrick Robinson, non-tendered by the Royals, signed with the Reds: Robinson had never appeared in a Major League game but the Royals chose not to renew his minor league contract. He's 4-for-17 through 20 plate appearances as the Reds' fifth outfielder.
• Nate Schierholtz, non-tendered by the Phillies, signed with the Cubs: It's early but this looks like a great addition by Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein; Schierholtz is hitting .316/.371/.544 with a pair of homers as the Cubs' primary right fielder.
• Geovany Soto, non-tendered by the Rangers, re-signed with the Rangers: Soto has only played four games with iron man A.J. Pierzynski on board as Texas' primary backstop. He's gone just 2-for-13 in 15 PAs during those four games.
• Andres Torres, non-tendered by the Mets, signed with the Giants: Torres was great for the Giants when they won the 2010 World Series, and he's been pretty good in 2013 as well. He's hitting .293/.310/.390 with a pair of steals and his usual great defense through 16 games.

Andino, Francisco and Parra strike me as DFA candidates in the event that their teams make a waiver claim or choose to promote a minor leaguer that isn't on the 40-man roster. Lannan, too, could find himself without a roster spot if Pettibone pitches well while he's on the shelf. Pelfrey seems likely to have a longer leash given his base salary and the fact that he's still shaking off the Tommy John rust, but another handful of poor starts could put him in jeopardy.