Uncategorized News & Rumors

Each year there are dozens of seemingly minor moves made over the course of Spring Training that generate little fanfare. A lot of Spring Training pickups generate more of a negative reaction than a positive one, but here's a look at some of the best minor (and one major) pickups that took place during Spring Training 2013…

• Vernon Wells — Acquired by the Yankees at the end of Spring Training, Wells was regarded as a desperation move by GM Brian Cashman. While that may have been the case, the results have been astounding. He's batting .287/.341/.506 with 10 homers through May 23. Most (myself included) assumed Wells was done after he hit .222/.258/.409 from 2011-12, but Wells has proved to be arguably the best Spring Training pickup of 2013.
• Kyle Lohse – Lohse would be the "major" pickup I referenced earlier, and he's been good for the Brewers through the first two months of his three-year deal. Lohse has a 3.76 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 38.7 percent ground-ball rate through 55 innings. His ERA doesn't look as nice as it did in St. Louis, but in terms of FIP and xFIP he's pretty much right on par with his 2012 numbers.
• Mike Carp — The Red Sox landed Carp for a player to be named later, and he's hit very well in his limited at-bats for Boston. Carp has just 51 plate appearances, but he's triple-slashing .277/.333/.596. Nine of his 13 hits have been for extra bases (five doubles, two triples, two homers).
• Conor Gillaspie — The White Sox picked up Gillaspie in exchange for Jeff Soptic, who has a 6.48 ERA in 25 innings at High-A San Jose for the Giants. Gillaspie, on the other hand, has received regular at-bats against right-handed pitching and posted a .276/.341/.422 batting line against them. He's also been terrific defensively according to UZR/150 (+4.4) and The Fielding Bible (+3).
• Jon Garland — Garland's 5.19 ERA doesn't look like much, but he's posted a 49.2 percent ground-ball rate and been done in by a fluky homer-to-flyball ratio. Pitching at Coors Field doesn't help much, but xFIP pegs him for an ERA around 4.32, which would certainly be serviceable. He's thrown 52 innings thus far, which puts him at nearly six innings per start.
• Lyle Overbay — Overbay turned a four-day tryout with the Yankees into a roster spot and another scrap heap success story for Cashman. He's hitting .250/.286/.467, and the numbers would be a lo prettier if he was just sheltered completely from left-handed pitching. Seven homers and a .217 ISO isn't bad for a minor league signing.
• LaTroy Hawkins — Hawkins made the Mets' 25-man roster out of Spring Training after signing a minor league deal and has a 3.15 ERA, 8.6 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 20 innings of relief. He's 40 years old, but Hawk is showing he's still a valuable bullpen piece.
• Yuniesky Betancourt — I debated whether or not to include Betancourt because of his .232 average and .267 OBP, but he's slugged eight homers and if Overbay is on the list with his low OBP, Betancourt probably should be as well. He's playing poor defense, but Betancourt can be a decent source of pop off the bench once the team is healthy enough to stop giving him regular at-bats. He's certainly been better than detractors thought, though a Major League deal still seems like overkill.

MLBTR's Transaction Tracker was used to create this post. Feel free to point out any that you feel should have been included in the comments section.

The list of starting pitchers eligible for free agency after this season appears unimpressive, in large part due to injuries to key players.  The latest:

• The Cubs' Matt Garza makes his season debut tonight in Pittsburgh.  He last appeared on a Major League mound on July 21st of last year.  Previously a durable pitcher, Garza wasn't even expected to land on the DL after being forced out of that July start with triceps cramps.  The injury was later determined to be a stress reaction in his elbow.  There was talk of Garza being ready for Opening Day, but the supposedly mild lat strain suffered in February will limit him to fewer than 25 starts this year, even if he makes all of them moving forward.
• The Blue Jays' Josh Johnson suffered a triceps injury in late April, but made a solid minor league rehab start yesterday.  For a scouting report on the outing, check out Danny Knobler's latest from CBS Sports.  Barring a setback he should be ready in early June, and he may be auditioning for a July trade if Toronto's fortunes don't turn around.  Garza and Johnson would both benefit greatly from midseason trades, as they'd become ineligible for qualifying offers after the season.
• Rehabbing from July flexor tendon surgery, the Rangers' Colby Lewis was working at 84-86 miles per hour in a rehab start yesterday.  Lewis hopes to return before the All-Star break, but admitted yesterday's velocity "isn't going to cut it."  
• The Giants' Ryan Vogelsong fractured two bones in his right hand after being hit by a pitch yesterday, amid what MLB.com's Chris Haft called a "redemptive pitching effort."  The Giants have a $6.5MM club option on Vogelsong after the season with a $300K buyout.
• The Padres' Tim Stauffer was promoted Friday, fully recovered from flexor tendon surgery in August.  He'll begin in a relief role, but perhaps can be a rotation option down the line.  Stauffer made 31 starts with a 3.73 ERA in 2011.
• The Cardinals' Chris Carpenter, working his way back from a shoulder injury, threw an extended bullpen session on Saturday.  Carpenter's teammate Jake Westbrook is on the DL for elbow inflammation and biceps tendinitis, but according to this report from MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, he's "hopeful that Saturday's start is the last one that he will have to miss."  Westbrook has a $9.5MM mutual option after the season with a $1MM buyout.
• The Indians' Brett Myers, on the shelf since late April with an elbow injury, is set to make what is hopefully his final rehab appearance today.  The Tribe holds a club option on him after the season. 
• After a DL stint for lower back stiffness, the Mariners' Aaron Harang will start tonight in Los Angeles.
• The Orioles' Tsuyoshi Wada will make his second minor league rehab start tonight for the Norfolk Tides, as he tries to recover from Tommy John surgery and provide some value to the O's.
• The Pirates' Jeff Karstens made his second minor league rehab start on Saturday, as he recovers from shoulder inflammation.
• The Rockies' Jeff Francis was placed on the DL last Thursday with a groin strain, but may be able to return when eligible.
• The Yankees' Andy Pettitte hit the DL last week with a strained trapezius muscle.  The 40-year-old is expected to return when eligible.
• After the 2012 season, only four free agent starters were coming off 200-inning seasons.  Currently, 13 impending free agents seem to have a shot: Dan Haren, Tim Hudson, Jon Garland, Joe Saunders, Tim Lincecum, Paul Maholm, Bartolo Colon, Jason Marquis, Ervin Santana, Jason Vargas, Hiroki Kuroda, Bronson Arroyo, and Ricky Nolasco. 

How often are top prospects traded midseason?  Using trade periods of June through August, and Baseball America's preseason top 100 prospect lists, let's take a look at the last four years:

• 2012: 7 (Jacob Turner, Arodys Vizcaino, Jean Segura, Zack Cox, Allen Webster, Nate Eovaldi, Christian Villanueva)
• 2011: 5 (Jonathan Singleton, Alex White, Zack Wheeler, Drew Pomeranz, Jarred Cosart)
• 2010: 3 (Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace, Wilson Ramos)
• 2009: 7 (Brett Wallace, Tim Alderson, Carlos Carrasco, Gorkys Hernandez, Aaron Poreda, Lou Marson, Chris Perez)

If recent history is any indication, we should expect between three and seven top 100 prospects to be traded this summer.  Out of the 22 prospects traded in the last four years, only three were top 30 guys: Smoak, Turner, and Wallace in 2010.  Wallace's 2010 trade was something of a prospect challenge trade, however, and is an exception.  It's fair to expect most traded prospects to be in the 40-100 range on the rankings.  Of those prospects on BA's 2013 list, 33 play for teams currently above .500:

• Red Sox: Matt Barnes, Allen Webster, Henry Owens
• Braves: Julio Teheran, J.R. Graham
• Athletics: Addison Russell
• Pirates: Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson, Luis Heredia
• Rockies: Nolan Arenado, David Dahl, Trevor Story
• Reds: Robert Stephenson, Tony Cingrani, Daniel Corcino
• Yankees: Gary Sanchez, Slade Heathcott, Tyler Austin
• Rays: Taylor Guerrieri, Hak-Ju Lee, Jake Odorizzi, 
• Giants: Kyle Crick
• Nationals: Lucas Giolito, Brian Goodwin
• Diamondbacks: Adam Eaton, Didi Gregorius, Matt Davidson
• Tigers: Avisail Garcia, Bruce Rondon
• Cardinals: Michael Wacha, Kolten Wong
• Rangers: Martin Perez, Leonys Martin

Players like Teheran and Arenado seem less likely to be traded, as they're holding down full-time roles.  Also, since top 100 prospects are created prior to the season, they don't account for prospects whose stock dropped in the minor league season leading up to the trade deadline, such as Turner, Alderson or Cox, or others whose stock rose.  Vizcaino is an example of an injured prospect who was traded, but it seems unlikely in the case of the Rays' Lee, who is probably out for the season due to a knee injury.  

We also have to consider team and GM history.  Even if my brief four-year sample, the Phillies traded four of the 22 prospects in a pair of major trades, but the club may not profile as a buyer in two months.  A player like the D'Backs' Davidson seems to represent the perfect storm of a summer prospect trade: he's a bit of a forgotten prospect, he's blocked at third base, and he plays for a contender.

One other factor is the new CBA.  The inability to spend significantly over slot  in the draft may compel teams to hold onto top prospects more tightly, while the inability to recoup value on a rental in the form of draft pick compensation may limit trades of those players.

Having lost veterans Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty to elbow injuries, the Braves are expected to be in the hunt for a lefty reliever, confirmed Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Rosenthal notes that Miami's Mike Dunn would be ideal; Atlanta traded him to the Marlins in the Dan Uggla deal several years ago.  Dunn, who turns 28 on Thursday, has pushed his walk rate down a bit and is getting more groundballs, which partially explains his 1.74 ERA.  He's under team control through 2016, and the Marlins should be able to command a strong return on the trade market.  Which other lefty relievers might become available this summer?

• Darren Oliver and Brett Cecil, Blue Jays.  Oliver, 42, hasn't been effective against left-handed hitters this year, allowing 14 hits out of 36 batters faced.  Cecil has dominated same-side batters, but he is under team control through 2016 and would be much harder to acquire.
• J.P. Howell, Dodgers.  Howell and his 87 mile-an-hour heater have been extremely effective against lefty hitters.  He has a $2.85MM base salary plus incentives.
• Wesley Wright and Travis Blackley, Astros.  Erik Bedard is another name to watch here, though he's currently in the Astros' rotation and might be needed there.  Wright has been ineffective against lefties, while Blackley has been OK.
• Brian Duensing, Twins.  Glen Perkins could be very popular on the trade market, but he's signed potentially through 2016 and I'm not sure the Twins would be willing to trade their closer.  Duensing has been very good against left-handed hitters and is under team control through 2015.
• James Russell, Cubs.  Russell may be the prize among left-handed relievers.  His numbers have moved in the right direction this year.  He's dominated lefty hitters and is usable against right-handed ones.  He's under team control through 2015, so the Cubs will be in no rush to move him.
• Tom Gorzelanny and Mike Gonzalez, Brewers.  Gorzelanny has a 2.30 ERA on the season, a deceptive number given his low strikeout rate, high walk rate, and proclivity toward the longball.  Signed through 2014, the Brewers would do well to clear his contract.  Gonzalez, also signed as a free agent during the offseason, needs to be kept far away from right-handed hitters.  His 4.5 K/BB ratio against left-handed batters is promising, but he has been hittable.
• Charlie Furbush and Oliver Perez, Mariners.  Walks have been a problem for Furbush, who is under team control through 2017.  Perez has at least limited free passes against lefty batters, whom the impending free agent has dominated.
• Antonio Bastardo, Phillies.  Bastardo has allowed a pair of home runs among his 25 left-handed hitters faced, which continues to be a problem for him given his inability to get groundballs.  He's under team control through 2015.
• Scott Downs, Angels.  The L.A. teams certainly aren't ready to punt on the season, but one or both may be in two months.  Downs, 37, is earning $5MM in the last year of his contract.  He's got one of the best groundball rates you'll find, and remains tough on left-handed hitters.
• Matt Thornton, White Sox.  Unlike most left-handed relievers, Thornton sits around 94 miles per hour with his fastball.  The 36-year-old earns $5.5MM this year and has a $6MM club option for 2014.  He battled elbow inflammation in February and strikeouts have eluded him so far, depressing his trade value.
• Joe Thatcher, Padres.  Thatcher has been hittable against lefties, but otherwise effective.  He's under team control through 2014.
• Marc Rzepczynski, Cardinals.  Rzepczynski had his fire questioned by GM John Mozeliak, and despite a $1.1MM salary he and his 7.88 ERA were demoted to Triple-A in late April.  Lefties have hit him well at that level too, so the Cardinals would be selling low to move him this summer.

One of baseball's rising stars recently told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he was concerned about the flurry of contract extensions in baseball and the effect it could have on all players.  Free agency, the player argued, helped to make the players union into the powerhouse that it is today.  More extensions around baseball means fewer top players reaching free agency, which leads some to believe that there won't be anyone to drive the top of the market.  However, agent Scott Boras and union chief Michael Weiner don't view the increasing number of contract extensions as a problem.

Weiner says that he only asks that players exercise their Basic Agreement rights and is fine with players taking extensions over free agency when it suits their needs.  Boras has a slightly different take on things, saying that some players don't have the right agent representing them in contract talks with their club.  

“The biggest problem the union faces is that there should be more criteria and practical experience before agents can be qualified to represent players with the decisions at hand,” Boras said. “A large number of players believe that a social relationship is the primary foundation — in other words, ‘I like the guy,’ rather than qualifications."

Rosenthal goes on to note that precautions against deals that are too team-friendly are built into the regulations.  Agents are required to consult with the union when representing arbitration-eligible players or working on a contract that will cover arbitration years.  Meanwhile, agents without arbitration experience must consult with an attorney who has gone through the process before.  That means that Anthony Rizzo's seven-year, $41MM pact – which was widely viewed as a win for the Cubs – had input from the union along the way.

While the money is still flowing in for players with extensions, its hard to entirely dismiss what the open market can do in terms of pushing the ceiling.  Justin Verlander, for example, would have given a bigger boost to David Price if he had waited to hit the open market after the 2014 season and signed for $30MM rather than $25.7MM per year in his extension with the Tigers.  For now, the union is fine with the status quo, but Rosenthal could see things changing if the union feels as though its not getting its fair share of revenue.

A couple weeks ago, Tim Dierkes and I took a look at the hardest-throwing pitchers of the 2014 free agent class and those with the highest ground-ball rates. Both of those trends are highly coveted skills to have as a free agent pitcher, as is the ability to limit walks. With an advanced mention of the small sample size caveat (these numbers could change quickly, especially for the relievers), here's a look at the free agent pitchers who have posted the lowest BB/9 marks of the season thus far…

Starters:

1. Bartolo Colon — 0.38
2. Ervin Santana — 1.12
3. Dan Haren — 1.19 
4. Bronson Arroyo — 1.37
5. Wandy Rodriguez — 1.83 ($13MM club option, $2.5MM buyout)
6. Ricky Nolasco — 2.19
7. Jon Lester — 2.26 ($13MM club option, $250K buyout)
8. Hiroki Kuroda — 2.31
9. Phil Hughes — 2.40
10. Mike Pelfrey — 2.58

Relievers:

1. Casey Janssen — 0.00 ($4MM club option, $250K buyout)
2. Edward Mujica — 0.56
3. Bruce Chen — 0.68
4. LaTroy Hawkins — 1.00
5. Matt Thornton — 1.42 ($6MM club option, $1MM club buyout)
6. Koji Uehara — 1.72
7. Joe Smith — 1.98
8. Derek Lowe — 2.19
9. Chad Qualls — 2.20
10. Brandon Lyon — 2.30

Hiroki Kuroda appears on two of the three lists, as do Mike Pelfrey and Phil Hughes. The latter two, of course, have done little to make themselves appetzing for free agent suitors. Jon Lester, at this point, would appear on all three lists, though his club option seems a sure thing to be exercised.

The same can be said of Casey Janssen, who has yet to issue a walk or blow a save on the season as the Blue Jays' closer. The relief crop listed here is mostly one of veteran hurlers (Lowe doesn't figure to generate much interest), but Mujica presents an interesting case. He's taken his game to a new level this season, posting stellar K/BB numbers and a respectable ground-ball rate after being unexpectedly thrust into the ninth inning spotlight in St. Louis. As I said, these numbers are subject to change quickly, and of course it's tough to recover from a few early bouts of poor command as a reliever. Just ask Fernando Rodney, who likely won't crack this list for the rest of the season.

None of these pitchers currently reside in the Top 10 of Tim's free agent power rankings, although I could see Santana working his way in eventually due to the relative weakness of the free agent class. Haren, too, could find himself on that list with a few solid months of work for the Nats, but he's got some catching up to do.

Last year, nine players received qualifying offers worth $13.3MM.  At least two more would have been likely to receive one had they not been deemed ineligible due to midseason trades.  A qualifying offer, if turned down, enables the team losing the free agent to receive a draft pick as compensation.  We haven't seen a player accept a qualifying offer yet, but the process is still in its infancy.  I've estimated the qualifying offer amount at around $14MM for the 2013-14 offseason.  Below, I've drafted an inclusive list of candidates to receive one after the season.  In today's poll, please check all whom you expect to receive a qualifying offer.  You can click here to view the results.

Want to stay up-to-date on all the rumors and transactions involving your favorite team or player?  At the office, you can simply pull up MLBTradeRumors.com and refresh constantly, with your fingers on alt-tab as you read so you can bounce to a spreadsheet when your boss walks by (unless your boss is a baseball fan).  But what about when you're in a meeting or at lunch?  You need our Baseball Trade Rumors iPhone/iPad app!

For less than the cost of that lunch, just $2.99, the Baseball Trade Rumors iPhone/iPad app can be yours for life, including future upgrades.  The app presents all of the latest MLBTR stories, ad-free and mobile friendly, with the ability to filter by teams or transactions.  You can also enjoy custom push notifications, where you select your favorite teams and/or players and receive alerts when new stories are posted including them. 

Not an Apple person?  Check out our Android app instead.

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