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2017 Opt-Out Clause Update

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The last look we took at the handful of players with opt-out clauses following the 2017 season was more than a month ago, and a few of their situations may have changed since that early July check-in. Here’s an update on this group of potential free agents…

[Related: MLBTR Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition]

Trending Up

  • Justin Upton, Tigers ($88.5MM from 2018-21): There have been plenty of suggestions that there’s no way Upton will walk away from that contract, but we’re not really sold on that notion. Upton was terrible in his first three months with the Tigers but is hitting .274/.352/.542 (137 wRC+) with 45 homers dating back to July 1, 2016. Over the past calendar year, he’s hitting .281/.366/.571 (148 wRC+) with 40 homers in 631 PAs. He’s been seven to nine runs above average in left field, per UZR and DRS, as well. Upton will play next year at the age of 30 and needs only to feel he can top Hanley Ramirez’s guarantee to opt out. Beyond that, he may simply like the idea of moving to a team that isn’t openly trying to pare back its payroll and retool for the future.
  • Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees ($67MM from 2018-20): Tanaka’s home-run woes are an unequivocally troubling issue, but his numbers since the summer began are encouraging. Since May 26, Tanaka has a 3.99 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent ground-ball rate — good for a 3.12 xFIP and a 3.17 SIERA. The numbers are even better if you look at his past nine starts (3.00 ERA, 65 K, 12 BB, 57 innings). The health concerns are well known. Tanaka had a partial UCL tear in his rookie season but was able to avoid Tommy John, and he’s currently on the DL with what is reportedly some minor shoulder fatigue. The righty has averaged 2.2 HR/9 this year, but he’s also going to be just 29 years old next year. An opt-out looked highly unlikely two months ago but now looks entirely plausible, as long as this latest DL trip proves minor.
  • Welington Castillo, Orioles ($7MM player option): Since last check, Castillo has absolutely raked. He’s batted .308/.345/.500 with four homers and three doubles in his past 84 PAs, and his overall batting line it up to .283/.319/.457 (103 wRC+). Castillo’s framing marks have improved from some of the worst in the league to roughly average (per Baseball Prospectus), and he’s halted an incredible 46 percent of stolen-base attempts against him in 2017. He should be able to top a one-year, $7MM deal with ease this winter.

Trending Down

  • Greg Holland, Rockies ($15MM player option): Since our last check, Holland has reminded everyone that he is indeed mortal. In his past 11 2/3 frames, he’s coughed up eight runs on a dozen hits and six walks with 14 strikeouts. Six of those runs have come in his past two outings, but as long as that proves to be a blip on the radar, Holland still seems a safe bet to opt out. If he significantly fades in his first year back from Tommy John or lands on the disabled list, though, there’s at least a chance that he takes the option. Assuming he remains healthy, though, Holland will likely look to top Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM deal this winter.
  • Johnny Cueto, Giants ($84MM from 2018-21): It’s been almost a month since Cueto last set foot on a Major League mound, as he’s been sidelined with a forearm issue that has significantly clouded his chances of opting out. Reports earlier in the summer suggested that a slow start wasn’t going to deter Cueto from opting out, but a month-long injury scare and an ERA in the upper-4.00s certainly might. Cueto, 32 in February, has a 4.59 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and the second worst ground-ball rate of his career (39.2 percent). FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him at 4.41 or worse.

Unchanged Since Last Check

  • Matt Wieters, Nationals ($10.5MM player option): Wieters wasn’t hitting in early July, and he’s hitting even less now. His defensive reputation limited him to a two-year, $21MM deal with a player option after year one on the 2016-17 open market, and that was coming off a much better offensive season. Wieters seems extremely likely to take the $10.5MM in 2018.
  • Ian Kennedy, Royals ($49MM from 2018-20): Kennedy’s results have improved slightly since the last opt-out update, but it’s hardly enough to make it likely that he’ll opt out of that significant guarantee. Through 120 innings in 2017, Kennedy has averaged 1.65 HR/9, tying a career-worst mark, while both his strikeout and walk rates have gone the wrong direction. He’s also missed a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury, and he’ll turn 33 this December.
  • Wei-Yin Chen, Marlins ($52MM from 2018-20): No change here. Chen has scarcely been able to pitch in 2017 due to a reported partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament. He’s reportedly still aiming for a late comeback, but that won’t be enough to give him the earning power to top his remaining guarantee.

Nationals Place Bryce Harper On 10-Day DL With “Significant” Bone Bruise In Left Knee

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3:42pm: Manager Dusty Baker suggested to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, that Harper could miss 10 days to two weeks, though he didn’t commit to that as an exact timetable (Twitter link). Regardless, Harper “will be back before the end of the season,” said Baker (via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, on Twitter).

10:22am: The Nationals have placed star outfielder Bryce Harper on the 10-day DL due to a hyperextended left knee.  Nats GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including (USA Today’s Gabe Lacques and the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo) that Harper suffered a “significant” bone bruise.  Michael A. Taylor has been activated from the DL to take Harper’s spot on the roster.

While Harper’s injury is clearly serious in nature and no timetable was provided for his return, this diagnosis is something of a relief to Harper, the Nats and their fans.  “We feel we dodged a bullet,” Rizzo said, noting that Harper didn’t suffer any ligament or structural damage to his knee.  Rizzo believes Harper will play again before the season is done, thus making him a factor to contribute in the Nationals’ postseason drive.

The team (and the entire baseball world) feared the worst after Harper suffered the nasty-looking injury last night, having to be helped off the field after slipping while crossing first base while attempting to beat out a ground ball.  Bone bruises can vary greatly in severity, so Harper may still miss significant time, though the Nats have enough breathing space atop the NL East to be cautious, Rizzo noted.

The fact that Washington has a 14.5-game division lead and baseball’s third-best record is somewhat remarkable given the number of significant injuries the club has suffered, particularly in the outfield.  Adam Eaton suffered a season-ending ACL tear in April, Jayson Werth is still sidelined indefinitely with foot injuries, and Taylor is only just returning after a month on the DL due to a strained oblique.  Shortstop Trea Turner could’ve potentially been a candidate to help fill these outfield gaps, though he has been out of action himself thanks to a fractured wrist.

If the Nats are going to be serious World Series contenders, however, obviously they’ll need Harper back in time for October baseball.  Harper was in the midst of a superb year, batting .326/.419/.614 with 29 homers over 472 plate appearances, and this injury absence is likely to cost him a chance at his second NL MVP Award in three seasons.

With Harper out, it seems as if Taylor, Brian Goodwin and Howie Kendrick will see much of the action as Washington’s first-choice outfielders, with Adam Lind and Andrew Stevenson providing some left-handed hitting flexibility off the bench.  Even this mix of players isn’t quite stable, as Kendrick has been recently bothered by a bad back.  It’s possible the Nationals could explore adding more outfield depth in a trade, though they’ll probably wait a week or two to monitor the statuses of Harper and Werth before deciding whether some external help is necessary.

Bryce Harper Exits With Apparent Knee Injury

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Right fielder Bryce Harper departed the Nationals’ game against the Giants on Saturday with an apparent injury to his left knee. The injury occurred when Harper tried to beat out a ground ball, per the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo, who adds that the superstar had to be helped off the field and didn’t put any weight on his leg when he exited (Twitter links). As the video shows (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, on Twitter), Harper slipped while crossing the first base bag, which was “clearly wet” as a result of rainy conditions in Washington, tweets Castillo.

The Nationals already lost one of their starting outfielders for the year when center fielder Adam Eaton suffered a torn ACL in April, while left fielder Jayson Werth has been out since early June with foot issues. The club has also had to go without Eaton’s replacement, Michael Taylor, for over a month because of an oblique injury, while standout shortstop Trea Turner has been on the shelf since the end of June with a fractured wrist. The Nationals, to their credit, have withstood those absences en route to a 68-45 record and an insurmountable 14-game lead in the NL East.

While injuries haven’t stopped the Nationals to this point, remaining an elite team without Harper would be an incredibly difficult task. Harper is arguably the best player in the National League, after all, and will have a strong chance to win his second MVP this season if his injury isn’t as catastrophic as it appears. In his age-24 campaign, Harper has slashed a remarkable .326/.419/.614 with 29 home runs in 472 plate appearances. His 5.0 fWAR ranks third in the NL, trailing only Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (5.2) and one of Harper’s teammates, third baseman Anthony Rendon (5.1).

Washington replaced Harper on Saturday with Brian Goodwin, who shifted from center to right, and brought Andrew Stevenson off the bench to occupy center. Longtime first baseman Adam Lind and the recently acquired Howie Kendrick join Goodwin and the untested Stevenson as the team’s only healthy outfield options at the moment.

Quick Hits: Miller, Freeman, Nationals

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Differences between the levels of media attention in various markets can affect players as they change teams,writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Andrew Miller (who has played for teams like the Indians and Marlins with relatively small media contingents, as well as teams like the Red Sox and Yankees with large ones) says he prefers bigger media markets (although Cafardo also notes that Miller has enjoyed his time in Cleveland). “For me, the best thing that ever happened was coming to Boston,” says Miller. “I loved the big crowds and all of the attention paid to the team. I loved the adrenaline it gave me. But I know guys who prefer to just play baseball and not have to worry about outside things. Everybody is a little different.” Here are more quick notes from around the league.

  • Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman is pleased with how his organization’s rebuild is going, writes Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. “It’s nice to see things starting to form into a team and not just form a minor league system,” says Freeman. “It’s been a tough two years; I don’t think anybody’s gonna sugarcoat that around here. We had a team where most teams said, ‘Oh, good, we’re playing the Braves.’ But I don’t think most teams say that anymore. Last year, we’d be 30 games under .500 at this point. It’s been so much better.” Kepner notes that Freeman has earned plaudits from teammates for his willingness to try third base recently to accommodate the team’s changing roster, even though Freeman himself is a veteran in the midst of an outstanding season. Freeman played 16 games at third, although he’s been back at first base recently, with Matt Adams in the outfield and Brandon Phillips at the hot corner.
  • Lefty Sean Doolittle was initially distraught by the recent trade that sent him from the Athletics to the Nationals, but he says being dealt along with fellow reliever Ryan Madson helped, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Madson had already been part of five organizations before heading to the Nationals, whereas Doolittle had only ever been with the Athletics. “It was awesome for me having (Madson) here because he kept me really centered,” says Doolittle. “My emotions were all over the place, and he has such a calming presence about him. That really helped me.” Nats manager Dusty Baker chose Doolittle to close ahead of Madson or another new acquisition, Brandon Kintzler, even though all three have been closers before. Baker cites Doolittle’s experience as a deciding factor, although it’s worth noting he has the fewest career saves of the three. Perhaps that’s missing the point, though — Baker seems to view his new relief trio as three essentially interchangeable hurlers who are all capable of pitching the late innings.

Kelvin Herrera, Gregory Polanco, Alex Colome & Francisco Cervelli Move To Wasserman

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Six players have elected to change their agencies, following agent Rafa Nieves in his recent move from Beverly Hills Sports Council to the Wasserman Media Group, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links).

Among the veterans making the change are a pair of closers — the Royals’ Kelvin Herrera and Alex Colome of the Rays — as well as two Pirates players, outfielder Gregory Polanco and catcher Francisco Cervelli. Two less-experienced players — each of whom has a 40-man spot but is currently at Triple-A — will also move: Athletics righty Frankie Montas and Nationals catcher Pedro Severino.

Of these players, it seems that Herrera’s situation is most interesting. The 27-year-old will be eligible for free agency one final time over the winter. He’s earning $5.325MM currently and will look to build upon that figure before hitting the open market.

Herrera’s case will be an interesting one to track, as he has slipped to a 4.19 ERA this year but has also already posted 43 strikeouts and has served as Kansas City’s full-time closer. With 24 saves in the bank — double last year’s tally — Herrera should be well-positioned to argue for a hefty raise, especially if he can drive down the earned run average before the end of the season.

Also slated for arbitration is Colome, who’ll go through the process for the first time. He, too, hasn’t been quite as dominant this year as he was last. But he’ll bring a loaded resume to the table with 37 saves in the bank from last year and a league-leading 33 added already in 2017. As things stand, Colome has a career 3.16 ERA and has also accumulated more innings than a typical closer (256 2/3) since he also has 19 MLB starts on his ledger.

As for the two Bucs regulars, they’re playing under long-term contracts. Polanco is under team control all the way through 2023, while Cervelli is locked up through 2019 under the extension he signed last year. Both Montas and Severino have seen the majors on multiple occasions, but neither has accumulated significant service time to date. The pair of 24-year-old Dominicans are still a fair ways away from possible arbitration eligibility.

As always, you can find the most up-to-date agency information in MLBTR’s database.

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/7/17

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Here are Monday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Angels have signed right-hander Branden Pinder, reports Baseball America’s Matt Eddy in his always-informative weekly Minor Transactions roundup (which includes dozens of moves). Pinder is a known commodity to Angels GM Billy Eppler, having spent his career to date in the Yankees organization, where Eppler was previously an assistant GM. Pinder had Tommy John surgery in 2016 but had worked back to throw 11 2/3 innings in the minors thus far in 2017. He showed promise in 27 2/3 frames with the 2015 Yankees (2.93 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.6 BB/9) and should have a better chance to work back to the Majors with the Halos than he’d have had in New York.
  • In a pair of moves from the Dodgers, left-hander Tommy Layne has been released, while outfielder Peter O’Brien has been outrighted to Triple-A, according to Eddy. Layne spent less than a month in the Dodgers’ system after signing a minors pact in mid-July. He threw 5 2/3 frames with their Triple-A club but walked more batters (six) than he struck out (three). He does have a nice track record in the Majors (3.23 ERA in 136 1/3 innings from 2012-16) but was hit hard with the Yankees in 2017. As for O’Brien, he’s bounced around on the waiver wire this season but finally went unclaimed and will return to the Dodgers’ minor league ranks while no longer occupying a 40-man roster spot. O’Brien’s power generated plenty of intrigue a few years ago, but there have long been questions about his defense and plate discipline. He’s also posted a .666 OPS in the minors this season.
  • Right-hander Esmil Rogers has signed on with the Nationals on a minor league pact, according to Eddy. Rogers last pitched in the Majors in 2015 and has since spent the second half of the 2015 season and the entire 2016 campaign pitching in the Korea Baseball Organization. He’s already made a pair of starts for Washington’s Triple-A affiliate and has thrown well. Rogers has 454 big league innings under his belt, but his success has been sporadic. He’ll give the Nats another veteran arm to potentially join the bullpen in September and could potentially act as a spot starter down the stretch if he continues to show well in Syracuse.

10 Veterans Clear Revocable Waivers

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A slew of household names cleared revocable waivers recently, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag in a pair of articles. The list consists of Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper, Reds first baseman Joey Votto, Tigers left fielder Justin Upton, Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez, Orioles first baseman Chris Davis, Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford and four Mets – outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, second baseman Neil Walker and reliever AJ Ramos. All of these players are now eligible for August trades.

It’s obvious that Harper, one of the game’s preeminent superstars, isn’t going anywhere. As Heyman notes, no team bothered to claim Harper because they realized putting the 24-year-old through waivers was merely a procedural maneuver by first-place Washington.

Votto, 33, won’t be on the move, either, as he’s a Cincinnati institution who has a full no-trade clause and a guaranteed $171MM coming his way through 2024.

Hernandez also enjoys full no-trade rights, though he hasn’t aged nearly as well as Votto. The former ace’s performance has declined drastically over the past couple years, making his contract a burden to the Mariners. The 31-year-old is on a $26MM salary this season and next, and he’s due another $27MM in 2019. Further hampering his trade value, King Felix is on the disabled list with right biceps tendinitis.

Davis, meanwhile, has a partial no-trade clause, and it’s difficult to imagine any team showing interest in the once-elite offensive force. The 31-year-old is amid his second straight mediocre season since re-signing in Baltimore on a seven-year, $161MM contract.

Upton, 29, is having an outstanding season, but he comes with a pricey salary ($22.13MM through 2021), and both his 20-team no-trade rights and opt-out clause complicate matters. Upton could vacate the remaining four years and $88MM-plus left on his deal after this season, but there’s a strong likelihood he’ll ride out the remainder of the contract, Heyman suggests. Regardless, there hasn’t been any real trade interest in Upton to this point, according to Heyman.

With his $8MM salary this season, Crawford is eminently affordable now, but he’s due $60MM from 2018-21 and is having a dreadful year offensively. While Crawford remains a great defender, teams might be leery of taking on a highly paid 30-year-old (31 in January) whose offensive production has suddenly cratered. He’s another member of the full no-trade clause club, too, further decreasing the chances of a deal.

As for the Mets, we now know of six of their veterans who have passed through waivers, with outfielders Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson having done so earlier this week. The best of the bunch is Cespedes, whom the Mets re-signed to a four-year, $110MM contract in the offseason. Even if the Mets wanted to deal Cespedes, the 31-year-old has a full NTC that would enable him to block any move.

Walker has also dealt with hamstring issues – a partial tear that sidelined the 31-year-old from mid-June until last week. The soon-to-be free agent has gone just 3 of 26 at the plate since his return, but he still comes with a quality track record and is on pace for another decent offensive season (.254/.332/.431 in 281 plate appearances). It’s unclear, though, whether there will be any teams clamoring for the switch-hitting Walker, who’s has roughly $6MM of his $17.2MM salary remaining through season’s end, given a lack of demand for second basemen.

Cabrera, 31, drew pre-trade deadline interest from the Red Sox and Indians, but they’ve patched up their infield situations since then. Moreover, the Mets are reportedly giving strong consideration to going forward with Cabrera next year, when he’s owed either a reasonable salary ($8.5MM) or a $2MM buyout.

Ramos just joined the Mets last week in a trade with the National League East rival Marlins. Several teams were interested in acquiring the 32-year-old leading up to July 31, though some of those clubs went on to make other deals for relievers after he went to the Mets. Plus, the Mets may favor keeping Ramos in hopes of contending in 2018. He’s owed around $2MM through the end of this season and has one more year of arbitration eligibility.

Players That Have Cleared Revocable Waivers

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We’ll use this post to keep track of players that have reportedly cleared revocable waivers. Before diving into the names, a few items bear repeating. The majority of Major League players will be placed on trade waivers this month, with most instances going unreported. There are undoubtedly players (quite a few of them, most likely) who have already cleared waivers but have not been reported to have done so. Players can be traded into September, as well, but only those traded on or before Aug. 31 will be eligible for the postseason with their new teams, so there’s some urgency for contending clubs to complete deals by month’s end. And, of course, for those who aren’t familiar with the inner-workings of waiver trades, MLBTR published a full explanation of how August trades work earlier this month.

Here’s the current list (last updated Aug. 29):

  • Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants (link): While he hasn’t produced great results this year and is owed another $54MM over the following three seasons, Samardzija has put up compelling peripherals and has long been a scout’s favorite. Still, the Giants may not be all that inclined to move him and Samardzija has broad no-trade protection, so a deal seems unlikely.
  • Nicholas Castellanos, 3B, Tigers (link): The 25-year-old hasn’t produced at the plate this year after a quality 2016 season. But he is still hitting the ball hard and could be an interesting bounceback target for other organizations — with an offseason deal seeming more likely than a late-August swap. Castellanos is playing this year on a $3MM salary and can be controlled for two more campaigns via arbitration.
  • R.A. Dickey, RHP, Braves (link): Dickey has been just what Atlanta thought it was getting: a solid innings eater with plenty of durability but limited upside. He could fill in the fifth slot in a contender’s rotation, but teams might be reluctant to force one of their catchers to learn to catch a knuckleball this late in the year. He’s averaging six innings per start, and Atlanta may just keep him around in 2018.
  • Brad Ziegler, RHP, Marlins (link): Ziegler has been stellar since returning from the disabled list and could certainly help a contending club’s bullpen. However, he’s owed $9MM in 2018, and the Marlins now find themselves back in Wild Card contention — both of which make a trade before the end of August unlikely. He could be an offseason trade candidate.
  • Miguel Gonzalez, RHP, White Sox (link): Gonzalez is earning $5.9MM in 2017 and has been a serviceable, if unspectacular source of innings for the ChiSox. He won’t be a part of a contending club’s playoff rotation, but a team with a big division lead that is looking to rest its rotation (or allow some of its injured rotation members to mend) could turn to Gonzalez for some stability. The asking price won’t be much.
  • Derek Holland, LHP, White Sox (link): Like Gonzalez, Holland could be a rotation stabilizer for a team with a comfortable division lead. He’s also shut down opposing lefties (.216/.279/.333) in 2017, so perhaps a club would look at him as a potential relief specialist with expanded September rosters on the horizon.
  • James Shields, RHP, White Sox (link): The Sox still owe Shields the balance of a $10MM commitment this season (the Padres are on the hook for the rest), plus $12MM in 2018. Given his enormous struggles over the past two seasons, he’s not going anywhere unless the ChiSox simply cut bait and release him.
  • Victor Martinez, DH, Tigers (link): Martinez has been a decidedly below-average contributor at the plate in 2017 and is owed the balance of this year’s $18MM salary plus an identical $18MM salary in 2018. The Tigers won’t find any takers here.
  • Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers (link): Cabrera is 34 years old and has been a roughly league-average hitter in 2017. He’s owed a ridiculous $192MM from 2018-23 and has full no-trade protection as well. That last point is largely moot, though, as his enormous contract makes him all but impossible to move anyhow.
  • Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Tigers (link): With a 5.29 ERA in his nearly two seasons as a Tiger and $74MM owed to him from 2018-20, Zimmermann is effectively an immovable asset for the Tigers.
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins (link): Stanton is owed $295MM over the next decade, so an attempt at acquiring him wouldn’t exactly make for a casual undertaking. He has more than made up for a relatively disappointing 2016 season thus far with a monster 2017, boosting his value, but structuring a deal would be complicated by a variety of factors — including the Miami organization’s still-pending sale.
  • Brandon Phillips, 2B, Braves (link): The 36-year-old isn’t the exciting option he once was, but Phillips still brings acceptable and affordable production to the table. Combining those factors with his impending free agency, Phillips seems like someone the Braves could realistically trade this month.
  • Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants (link): Crawford emerged as a two-way star over the previous couple seasons, pairing good offense with otherworldly defense. His glovework remains strong, but the 30-year-old’s production at the plate has fallen off dramatically this season. The Giants reportedly still have little interest in dealing him, and doing so would be difficult in any event. Crawford, who’s making $8MM this year, will rake in $15MM each season from 2018-21. He also has a full no-trade clause.
  • Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners (link): Unfortunately, King Felix’s days as an ace appear long gone, which is all the more troubling for the Mariners when taking his contract into consideration. Hernandez, 31, is collecting a $26MM salary this year and will make $53MM more from 2018-19. He also has a full no-trade clause, making him even less movable.
  • Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets (link): Unlike fellow Mets outfielders Bruce and Granderson, Cespedes doesn’t seem like a logical trade candidate. Cespedes is in the first season of a four-year, $110MM deal, and the Mets gave the franchise cornerstone a full no-trade clause when they re-signed him.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Mets (link): Cabrera, who’s making $8.25MM this season and has either an $8.5MM club option or a $2MM buyout for 2018, drew trade interest in July. However, recent indications are that the Mets are leaning toward keeping him in the fold for next year.
  • AJ Ramos, RP, Mets (link): Ramos was a popular name in trade rumors before the Mets acquired him from the Marlins in late July. Plenty of teams showed interest in Ramos, so perhaps the Mets would be able to find a taker for the longtime closer. However, New York acquired Ramos knowing it wasn’t in contention this season, so keeping him into 2018 – his final season of arbitration eligibility – looks more likely.
  • Bryce Harper, RF, Nationals (link): Harper isn’t going anywhere. Putting the superstar through waivers was purely a procedural move by the Nationals.
  • Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (link): Davis, 31, no longer resembles the force of nature he was at the plate before the Orioles handed him a seven-year, $161MM contract leading up to the 2016 campaign. They included a partial no-trade clause in the accord, but the contract itself has essentially become a full NTC thanks to Davis’ decline. Realistically, Baltimore’s stuck with him.
  • Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (link): The Reds haven’t shown any interest in moving Votto, nor has he expressed a willingness to leave Cincinnati. Considering those factors, the remaining money on Votto’s enormous contract (a guaranteed $171MM through 2024) and his full no-trade clause, the hitting savant will stay where he is.
  • Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers (link): With plenty of cash still owed this year and $56MM more promised through 2019, Verlander is not a guy who’ll casually be acquired. Things are complicated by Detroit’s inclination to try to achieve real value for a cornerstone player, not to mention Verlander’s full no-trade rights — though he seems willing to entertain a move. While a deal still seems less than likely, Verlander could be a fascinating player to watch if he throws well and one or more contenders see a need for his services.
  • Justin Upton, LF, Tigers (link): As is the case with Verlander, moving Upton would be a major challenge for Detroit. Not only does Upton have a 20-team no-trade clause, but his contract includes an opt-out clause for after the season, when he’ll have to decide whether to play out his deal or leave four years and roughly $88MM on the table. The tricky financial situation has apparently overshadowed the great season Upton’s having, as nobody has shown real interest in acquiring him.

Additionally, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Neil Walker cleared waivers before their respective trades to the Dodgers, Indians and the Brewers.

NL East Notes: Scherzer, Chen, Garcia, Phillies

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The discomfort from the neck spasms that forced Nationals ace Max Scherzer from his last start have largely subsided, the right-hander told reporters today (Twtiter link via MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman). Scherzer tells reporters that he played catch today and will throw a bullpen session tomorrow. He’s expected to make his next start for the Nats on Monday of this week.

A few more notes from around the NL East…

  • Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun Sentinel writes that Marlins lefty Wei-Yin Chen is not yet giving up hope on being able to return to the mound in 2017. Chen has missed most of the season, owing to a reported partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow, but he’s thrown six bullpen sessions over the past few weeks. “We’re still talking a little ways,” manager Don Mattingly said of Chen’s possible return. “But I think we’re also getting to the point where we can say he’s progressing to the point where at least it’s on the radar.”
  • Also from Healey, while rookie southpaw Jarlin Garcia has emerged as a valuable setup piece, the Marlins organization isn’t entirely closed off to the idea of him returning to a starting role in the future. “I think it’s something that you at least think about,” said Mattingly. “But I don’t know if anyone has necessarily talked to Jarlin or the organization has really gotten that far.” The 24-year-old Garcia has appeared in 46 games for the Fish this season and has turned in a 3.53 ERA with 7.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. He’s limited opposing lefties to an awful .167/.229/.328 batting line while holding righties to a .212/.278/.415 clip.
  • Phillies outfield prospect Carlos Tocci has forced his way into consideration for a 40-man roster spot this offseason, writes Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The 21-year-old could “play center field in the big leagues tomorrow” from a defensive standpoint, per Phillies international scouting director Sal Agostinelli. But, as Breen explains, his improved play at the dish in Double-A would make him extremely likely to be selected in this year’s Rule 5 Draft after being left unprotected last winter. Tocci is hitting .313/.370/.410 in Double-A this season and has improved as the season wears on. Phillies fans — and those who follow the Rule 5 Draft in general — will want to take a full look at Breen’s piece, as he runs through a number of locks and borderline candidates to land on Philadelphia’s 40-man this winter. (Breen also shares an interesting anecdote about the Rangers actually outbidding the Phillies for Tocci at the last minute while Agostinelli was with Tocci’s family in Venezuela, though Tocci nonethless signed with the Phillies.)
  • In a separate column, Breen speaks to Agostinelli about his excitement over the additional international bonus money that GM Matt Klentak acquired in trades that sent Howie Kendrick to the Nationals and Jeremy Hellickson to the Orioles. “During a period of the year, sometimes you have to give more money than you wanted to a particular guy. A lot of teams don’t have any money left,” Agostinelli explains. He goes on to recall the story of how the Phillies came to sign right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who was throwing 86-87 mph when most scouts saw him leading up to the international signing period but saw that velocity build up to the low 90s later that summer. “We had the extra money and we signed him for 300 grand. It’s kind of the same ideology,” says Agostinelli.

Nationals Over Luxury Tax Threshold

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While the Nationals have a history of putting some finishing touches on their roster in August (e.g. Marc Rzepczynski, Matt Thornton), a significant/expensive addition isn’t likely to be in the cards, reports Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Per Janes, the Nats have crossed over the luxury tax threshold for the first time in franchise history.

[Related: Washington Nationals depth chart and payroll outlook]

The Nationals opened the season with a payroll close to $170MM, though the luxury tax is calculated in terms of the average annual value of those contracts, so backloaded contracts like Stephen Strasburg ($15MM in 2017 but $25MM average annual value) count more toward the luxury tax. Additionally, the Nats took on the likes of Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle,  Howie Kendrick and Brandon Kintzler in July.

As Janes notes, the Nats will pay a 20 percent tax on their overage as a first-time offender. The exact figure of the Nats’ luxury tax payroll remains to be seen, but their overage will fall into the $0-20MM bracket, so it’s hardly dire from a purely financial standpoint. There are other factors worth noting as well, though.

Firstly, if the Nationals exceed the luxury tax for a second time in 2018 by a similar margin they’ll be taxed at a 30 percent rate instead of a 20 percent rate. Secondly, if the Nationals elect to pursue a free agent that has rejected a qualifying offer this offseason, they’ll now face a steeper penalty for signing him. The new collective bargaining agreement stipulated that luxury tax payers will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year’s draft and will also lost $1MM from their league-allotted international bonus pool.

The Nats are in the metaphorical “penalty box” when it comes to the international market anyhow, so the loss of pool money isn’t a significant hindrance, as they can’t sign any individual player for more than $300K anyhow. But, exceeding the luxury tax could make it a bit more costly in terms of draft compensation if the team wishes to pursue Greg Holland or Wade Davis in free agency — both of whom look like potential QO candidates.

The Nats do have the contracts of Kendrick, Kintzler, Jayson Werth, Joe Blanton, Oliver Perez, Stephen Drew, Chris Heisey, Adam Lind and Jose Lobaton coming off the books following the 2017 season. Werth alone will account for $18MM of luxury tax relief, and that group as a whole will bring more than $35MM of relief. With Anthony Rendon, Tanner Roark and Michael Taylor representing the only three players in line for arbitration raises, the Nats should be able to dip back under the threshold even with some offseason additions on the free-agent market this winter.

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