Mets To Swap Cameron For Nady

Over at RotoAuthority, I did an in-depth breakdown of the rumored Manny Ramirez trade.  The conclusion?  Even a trade of just Lastings Milledge and Mike Cameron for Manny Ramirez would be damaging to the Mets by 2007.  If the Mets add Yusmeiro Petit or Aaron Heilman to the mix, they get killed in the deal.

But now we have a new trade rumor that puts a wrinkle in the proposed Manny deal.  Word is that Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady is close to a done deal. 

Nady's versatility is helpful, but he won't match Cameron's value in 2006.  Cameron's not a star player in my book, but then again, you know you've made it when people start impersonating you to score painkillers.  Cameron plays a solid center field, and can still add 6 wins to a team at age 33.  Nady is 27 and is still several years away from free agency.  The Mets are hoping he can approximate his production from Triple A Portland in 2004: .330/.391/.629 in 74 games.  Nady did slug .615 in June of '05, so the potential is intriguing.

More interesting than the Cameron for Nady trade itself is the related fallout.  Consider:

The Red Sox would have one less option to replace Johnny Damon, and it becomes more likely that they bite the bullet and offer him a four-year deal.

The Mets back away from Carlos Delgado, Paul Konerko, and other available first basemen.  They begin the year with some combination of Mike Jacobs and Xavier Nady at the position.

A new group of players would have to be assembled to entice the Red Sox to surrender Ramirez.  Rest assured that if Lastings Milledge is involved, the Red Sox will still be listening.   

Thanks to Ryan from Berkeley

Comments

[JC]

As a Mets fan, I would probably do this one, especially if it means we'd try to get Giles to replace him.

Or even better, if we move Cameron AND Floyd and replace them both with Giles and Victor Diaz. If Diaz doesn't hit (or really, even if he does), his spot becomes Milledge's spot either mid-season or next year.

[NeifiChicken]

Your projections have no real backing though (other than the fiscal ones).

At this point Milledge is a promising player in AA. He may never carry his success over to mlb.

Cameron is the ONLY proven player in the deal, and his bat is only slightly above average. His defense is elite, but it's hidden out in RF.

Manny is one of the best and most consistent hitters in the game. He's a hall of famer, no doubt. Guys like him don't grow on trees, they are extremely rare, and in terms of on-field production, that group of players will not match Manny in these next 3 years.

The money point you make is the most valid one, but with the poor way Minaya spends his money, Manny would still be one of the most consistent investments.

P.S. Manny gets an extra million if he's traded, so he'd end up making 20 million.

[RumorMonger]

JC - it's funny, both Mets and Padres fans are telling me the trade makes no sense because their player is way more valuable than the other. It's just a rumor, folks.

Neifi - I like your blog. Don't know if I agree with the Morris signing though.

What is your point here? That since we never can guarantee the success of prospects, they have no trade value? Most stars were prospects at some point. The projections are from Baseball Prospectus, they have more backing than anything I could cook up.

Manny is getting older, I don't think he'll be all that great by 2008.

[JC]

I think the Cameron-Nady trade is pretty even. But if there's a downside for the Mets, it's that they're trading a starter for a platoon guy (assuming Jacobs splits time at 1st).

Still, it clears a spot for Giles/Diaz/Milledge

[RumorMonger]

Good point. But they're also freeing up a decent chunk of money this year and getting a young guy back.

[NeifiChicken]

No I don't blame your projections.

It's the best we can go off of, but the point is basically that it's really unknown.

Prospects still have value, I'm not knocking the trade so much as I'm knocking the notion that Milledge and Cameron would be more productive than Manny by 2007.

It COULD happen, but the odds of Manny doing better are much higher.

HOWEVER, if you're counting the money difference as well, I suppose you could be right. The 13 million dollar difference many would've made could help in the team in other areas making up the difference. I'm just saying between players themselves I'd put Manny's value and a mediocre CF over the production of Cameron and Milledge through 2008.

As for Morris, I'm not crazy about Morris, but he's one pitcher that would be financially flexible and is proven. He's in decline and had a poor second half, but there is so little out there that I don't see anything better. If nothing else, Morris is a lock for 200 IP with an ERA that could be in the mid 3's to the mid 4's. That's worth something, and with everyone that can throw 100 pitches being overpaid this year, he's at least a calculated investment.