ESPN: Carlos Lee To Rangers

Breaking news from ESPN's Keith Law:

"The Milwaukee Brewers are trading slugger Carlos Lee to the Texas Rangers as part of a multi-player deal, ESPN.com learned Friday.

The Brewers are sending Lee, minor-league outfield prospect Nelson Cruz and a player to be named later to the Rangers for relief pitcher Francisco Cordero and outfielders Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix."

Initial opinion: Jon Daniels got the best of Doug Melvin here.  Daniels gets a player comparable to Mench in Cruz, only cheaper.  He adds a huge addition to the middle of the lineup for the stretch run in Lee.  Mench is at a crossroads, Cordero is really just an OK 31 year-old reliever with saves under his belt, and Nix has been long on promise but short on results.  It seems that Melvin is trying to stay competitive and get some players for the future for Lee at the same time, so Brewers fans have to respect that.

Interesting side note: according to Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Mench's most comparable player is Carlos Lee.  I wonder how often a player has been traded for the player most similar to him? 

I'll have fantasy analysis of the trade on RotoAuthority sometime this afternoon.

Comments

[Kramerica Industries]

You might want to fix that title "ESPN: Carlos Lee To Brewers"

to the Rangers

[was385]

Don't believe it. They could get so much more than that for lee.

[start_wearing_purple]

How the hell did they get away with not trading Diamond or Danks??? Though honestly I don't think this trade will have a major impact for either side. Though the Brewers now have another potential closer...

[Kramerica Industries]

The twins couldnt do better?

[xxxJamesxxx]

Talk about a terrible return

[bobo]

Apparently it's true. I can't decide whether to see it's a horrible trade for the Brewers, or just a very very bad one.

They're bullpen is improved (guess Cordero has to close now?) but Mench is very mediocre, and Cruz is a much better player than Nix is. I guess the Brewers saw Mench as an affordable OF who would be under their control for a few years, but what they dont' realize apparently is that Hart could be just as good for a fraction of the cost.

On top of that they gave up probably their best near-ready OF prospect.

I don't get it. This doesn't make them better this year or next.

Am I missing something?

[RotoAuthority]

Oops.

[Kramerica Industries]

Isnt mench a free agent? I thought he was

Judging this trade i understand why Bowden is frustrated

[ozziethesaint]

It all depends, If Carlos won't agree to any kind of extension, why would any team over pay for a rental player?
Plus Cordero could potentially bounce back and make a great setup man for turnbow. and Mench is as solid of a cheap replacement for Lee as Mil was going to find that would be able to step in an play right now.This to me is a great trade since it looks like they moved Lee to avoid losing him for nothing at the end of the season. They now still have the players to make a run at the WC. Everyone screams for prospects... but for every prospect that actually ends up reaching their potential, there's 2 that crash and burn. So they traded Lee, who has turned down every extension offer they gave to him for a potentially good setup man, a young major league proven replacement for Lee as well as Nix.

[ozziethesaint]

Everyone is forgetting Lee was walking away this winter anyways

[Kramerica Industries]

This trade says to me that the Brewers are still trying for this year

[cubfever7]

I have season ticks for the Brewer's AAA franchise (Nashville) and can tell you that Nelson Cruz has tremendous upside. Not quite a 5 tool guy--but real close. GOOD power, good on d and on the bases. Texas got the best of this deal easily, unless Mike Maddux can resurrect Cordero. The puzzling about Texas is that year after year, they never fully address their main need: pitching.

[bobo]

I didn't forget. I think they'd be better off for the future with Cruz/Hart, and the 2 draft picks they'd have gotten for Lee.

I think they want it both ways - they want to still try for this year and also have guys for the future. And now they'll be mediocre both ways.

[ozziethesaint]

Simply Put,
Texas was raped in the trade....
It's Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, and Francisco Cordero in exchange for Nelson Cruz and 2 months of Carlos Lee

[start_wearing_purple]

There's another possibilty... Brewers will turn over cordero for maddux.

[bobo]

Ok, let's get one thing clear: Cruz is significantly better than Nix.

So you're already down, and now it's 2 months of Lee and a PTBNL for Mench and Cordero.

Is Cordero a closer? If not, he's a $5M setup man for 07. If you don't take that option, he's a FA.

What's Mench worth? He seems to have settled in quite nicely as a .800 OPS, low OBP outfielder. Not exactly hard to find. His career OPS against RH is 200 points higher than against LH. Against LH for his career, he's at .760 (worse in the past couple years). He's a platoon player, on the wrong side of it. He's a $2 million player. He'll likely double that in arbitration in 07. You could argue he, like Cordero, has no value whatsoever for the future.

So we're down to this:

2 months of Carlos Lee, Cruz, and a player to be named later, for 2 months of Cordero, 2 months of Mench, and Nix.

Is the slight bullpen upgrade worth the downgrade of Lee to Mench and Cruz to Nix? Hardly.

Moneywise they'll save about $500K for this year (8.5M for Lee minus 2.8M for Mench minus 4.0M for Cordero, all divided by 3).

Yuck.

[bobo]

Oops, I forgot, the Brewers essentially traded 2 high draft picks with Lee. What an awful trade.

[bobo]

Rumor, interested in hearing what your system says Mench is worth to a ML team for this year and the next few.

[ozziethesaint]

You only get those draft Picks if Lee was offered Arbo. There's nothing for sure about that

[RotoAuthority]

Well, BP's system says:

3.4 wins in '07
2.5 wins in '08
2.6 wins in '09
1.8 wins in '10

That's worth about $3-4 mil per year.

By comparison for Lee - 3.8, 3.5, 2.9, 2.1.

[Kramerica Industries]

Rosenthal is now confirming-http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5824748

[ozziethesaint]

Moneywise they'll save about $500K for this year (8.5M for Lee minus 2.8M for Mench minus 4.0M for Cordero, all divided by 3).

Also, your math seems faulty that looks like almost 2 mill to me. last I checked, 4mill and 2.8 mill is 6.8 which makes for 1.7 mill savings

[bobo]

You must have missed the "all divided by 3" part (even though you quoted it). It is 2/3 of the way through the season, right?

[bobo]

You can be sure he would have been offered arbitration. Players only decline when they can't find a decent long-term deal and/or think they'll increase their value for the next offseason (typically because their final year was poor). Lee knows he'll get $60M+ over 5 years, so there's no way he'd got to arbitration with the Brewers.

[ozziethesaint]

Ok even had he accepted, with the amount of draft picks that fizzle into nothing, would you rather have 2 question marks or guys that have proven themselves to belong in the bigs?

[bobo]

You mean guys that would be making more than what they're worth for 2007 and beyond? I think it's a forgone conclusion that the Brewers lose for 2007 and beyond. The only question is whether adding Cordero helps their bullpen more than losing Lee hurts their offense. I think it's extremely unlikely, and on top of that you lose Cruz and the 2 picks for the future.

[bobo]

Sorry, if it wasn't obvious, in my arbitration post it should have said "Players only ACCEPT..."

[ozziethesaint]

Mench is a very promising hitter, Cordero if he turns around could be a great 1-2 with Turnbow. I would expect the Brewers to be in the top 2 of the Central next season

[Taiwan Yankee]

Don't forget the Brewers get LHP-Julian Cordero from Rangers,alouth he is not a good prospect.

Julian Cordero, a 21-year-old left-hander, is 2-5 with a 2.91 ERA in 27 games, five starts, at the Rangers' low Class A affiliate.

[bobo]

Taiwan Yankee - where'd you see that? I only see that the Brewers will actually send another player to the Rangers!

ozziethesaint - if you think Mench is promising and will improve significantly then that's a different thing to debate. You're certainly entitled to your opinion on that but I don't see any evidence for that (and he's going to a less hitter-friendly park).

[ozziethesaint]

Bobo...

I think for what the Brewers are going to be able to afford, Mench is a very nice player

[bobo]

Can you really say you'd rather pay him ~$4M a year than give Hart or Cruz a chance?

I think for $2M a year he'd make a great RH side of a platoon but at double that, I'd go in another direction.

[ozziethesaint]

Actually... Yes
I was hoping like hell My Cards would get him

[pistonsfan133]

So now that lee has been dealt where do u guys think soriano will go? I think hes goin to detroit.

[bobo]

Hard to say, but I think it's more likely now that the bar's been set low.

[Rayman]

Yeah, Jim Bowden's gotta be kicking himself. No way he get s 3 great prospects now.

[Ryan]

I'm sure that Texas wouldn't trade so much to get Lee if they thought they had no shot at resigning him. They have a history of overpaying players and I'm sure they will do the same with Lee to keep him in Texas. To be honest, in hindsight, we should've known that he would get traded to a team that will throw too much money at him, only to trade him a year or two later and eat his contract. I'm not 100% on this, but I think that Texas is still paying over half of A-Rod's contract.

[cubfever7]

To clarify on Cruz. I believe he'll strugle alot with MLB breaking pitches, but if put in a fastball situation, he can go yard to all fields with ease. He does stager under flyballs on occasion, but has a NICE arm. He's not a base stealer per se but is a good baserunner and has worked under thre tutelege of Gary Pettis who has done wonders for T Gwynn Jr, Corey Hart and others. Call him a solid 3.5 tool guy.

[Ryan]

Also, forgot to add this but I think Soriano ends up staying put. No reason why, but a lot of times players with this much buzz around them just end up staying. Remember Griffey last year? He was moving FOR SURE (I think the White Sox were the most likely location to land). Guess what? He's still there.

[ozziethesaint]

There's no reason to think Bowden was ever going to get 3 great prospects for Sori unless he would have agreed to an extension before the trade was finalized. Why would any GM in his right mind give up up the farm for a guy that can walk away?

[ozziethesaint]

Ryan...

Lee has already said he wants to play in Chicago again. With the Cubs being the #1 choice

[start_wearing_purple]

Ryan, I believe the Rangers are paying 8 mil of e-rod... I mean arod's contract... it might also include a restructuring if the yanks trade him...

[nom3k]

Carlos Lee, Nelson Cruz, possible 2 1st round picks >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mench, Nix, Cordero

Mench is streaky, but average overall. Nix sucks. Cordero's been awful.

[ozziethesaint]

nom3k....

I think you are way way overvaluing those 2 draft picks.

From 2000-2005 if you look at the Brewers Top 10 drafts picks, that's 60 players. There's been 4 that are talked about as elite prospects. The baseball draft is so far from a sure thing, it's hard to put any value on those compensation picks.

So again, Nelson Cruz and 2 #1's for Mench, Nix, Cordero and the Pitching prospect they gave up is a nice move for Mil. Mench and Nix aren't old yet and have some track record in Mench's case and potential in Nix's. While those 2 draft picks you rave about might not ever see AA. If this was football, I wouldn't even argue with you. but baseball's draft is by far the biggest crapshoot of all sports

[nom3k]

And you're undervaluing the fact that Laynce Nix sucks and Cordero's been pretty bad. Mench is an okay player. That's not a package worth Carlos Lee. You're supposed to give up good value to get good value. The Rangers gave up their RFer and two, frankly, useless players to them to upgrade to Lee. And they get Nelson Cruz. And should they not re-sign Lee, they can get 2 picks next year.

[Kramerica Industries]

I am going to defend Mr.Cordero.......
he is era at the launchpad that is the Rangers home ballpark his era is 6.56 while away from that park his era is 3.20. He had a Horribel April sporting an era way over 11 but in May it was 2.51 and in June it was 2.08 while in July his era is just over 4 so he has been a very solid pitcher if you take away April.

[ozziethesaint]

to pick apart your logic even more

as of right now Lee is nothing more than a rental.

Cruz is rated as a AAAA player more than a future MLB starter

Mench is solid affordable replacement for Lee

Nix is someone that's had some limited sucess in the past.

and Cordero was an elite CL. Who is having a bad year. Now goes to the weaker NL, gets away from a hitters park and can be the setup man for Turnbow. This is a great trade for Mil. Now if only they can pull off something similiar to get rid of Geoff Jenkins and maybe Corey Koskie. All they need to acquire now is a decent young catcher. They should be trying to move Koskie to SD for Kotteras. then they would be set at C,1b,2b,3b,SS,all 3 OFs. Plus having solid SP and a great backend to their Pen

[nom3k]

You can justify those players all you'd like. You're not going to be able to justify that they're a package for Lee, especially with the market being what it is.

[ozziethesaint]

It's 2 months of Carlos Lee...
He's already said he wants to be a FA and sign with the Cubs

[nom3k]

You could say it's two months of Lee in regards to any package. The point is the Rangers didn't give up anything that couldn't be easily replaced. And they got Nelson Cruz and possibly 2 first rounders.

[ozziethesaint]

If I was MIL I would thank God that I was able to get Mench and Cordero for Cruz and 2 Picks (1st and 1st Supp actually)

[ozziethesaint]

Actually I was thinking, if Lee goes to the Cubs as been mentioned, THe picks would end up being a 1st Supplemental and a 2nd. Because any team in the upper half of the draft are protected from losing their firsts

[Taiwan Yankee]

To bobo:

This trade is curious，ESPN make a fault in early.

In the fact,I and my fiends descry different news for the trade in "early".

But,ESPN,Rotoworld had fix their fault.