Reds Send Kearns, Lopez To Nats In Blockbuster

I was fairly baffled by this trade.  How in the world does swapping out Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, and Brendan Harris make the Reds a better team this year?  (Ryan Wagner and Daryl Thompson were also swapped in the deal).  Let's analyze.

Lopez is a below average defensive shortstop.  He's probably amongst the five worst defensive shortstops in the game, as indicated by The Fielding Bible.  The Reds are ranked just 12th in the league in defensive efficiency this year.  Still, Royce Clayton is no defensive whiz at this point - he's probably only a shade better than Lopez.  So unless Krivsky has some fielding metrics that say otherwise, the gains on defense are minimal.  And if both players keep hitting like they have been this year, the Reds lose a full win on offense.

As for the bullpen additions, I'm less impressed after I look more closely.  Majewski is a 26 year-old reliever who does not miss bats (career K rate of 5.3 per nine).  He's also generous with the free passes.  While he may have squeezed into the list of the ten best setup men last year, he's not the most reliable option.  23 year-old southpaw Bray is more potential than results thus far, and he hasn't shown much ability to shut down left-handed hitters. He's got good stuff, but he's still just a reliever. 

Brendan Harris is a good little player; maybe he'll be starting at second base for the Reds next year if Brandon Phillips moves over to shortstop.  Righty starter Daryl Thompson is just 20, and adds needed depth to the Reds' farm system.  Still, neither has been making anyone's top prospect list.

I tried to defend Wayne Krivsky a bit at first, but this trade just looks bad.  The more I dig in, the less I like the players he acquired.  And if the Reds - 1.5 games out of the wild card - don't make the playoffs by a couple of wins, this trade is the reason.

For the Nats, Kearns would not be a bad option at all in center field.  He's got good range and a good arm.  His power potential remains huge, and though RFK will dampen his stats.  Great American Ballpark inflates right-handed home runs by about 15% while RFK deflates them by over 20%.  This could cost him 5-6 homers annually.

Lopez is seeing his power numbers slip this season as he continues to pound the ball into the ground more than half the time he makes contact.  The steals don't add much value.  Strip it down and mostly you're left with one asset: the ability to draw a walk in 10-12% of his plate appearances.  That's a good thing, but it doesn't outweigh the negatives.  The idea of unloading Lopez made sense, but the execution was poor.

Click here to see the fantasy take on this trade over at RotoAuthority.

Go over to the Hardball Times to see Aaron Gleeman's excellent take on the deal.

Comments

[Blue]

Do you think the rapidly rising cost in $$$ of good relief pitching also played a role in this? I think that is overlooked sometimes.

[RotoAuthority]

All the players Krivsky got here are quite affordable. Gives more flexibility.

[CubsAddictMG]

I wish the Cubs would have gotten a piece of that action if the Reds were in the mood to deal major league-ready talent for mid-level relievers.

[TheRealErik]

"but rest assured: Lopez is a lousy defensive shortstop"

I assure you, Clayton isn't any better.

" I think the Reds could've done better in a Kearns deal. This still looks like a win for Jim Bowden, but it's closer than it appears"

Yeah. Not really. Majewski isn't THAT good. His peripherals are very 'Bleh' and I wouldn't trust him in a big spot. Where does he rank in terms of WXRL?

[RotoAuthority]

Not high at all in WXRL. You may be right about him.

I'll read up on Clayton, see if he's still got anything left.

I still maintain it's not a bad trade for the Reds, though it seems that they could've done better.

[TheRealErik]

Hell, the Mets have plenty of relief pitching. They have Lindstrom and Ring in the minors. I'm sure the Reds could have gotten a Pedro Feliciano from the Mets along with one of those two minor leaguers for a Felipe Lopez. As bad as that trade sounds for the Reds, this one with the Nats is worse. I mean, aren't the Cubs shopping Eyre, Howry or Dumpster? Couldn't they use an Austin Kearns instead of Matt Murton? Were all these GM's asleep?

[A2000]

I thought in a Kearns trade the Reds would upgrade either their starting pitching or add a quality second baseman or shortstop (having Lopez move to second). Even in following through with this trade they could have at least gotten some BETTER relief than Majewski.

[xxxJamesxxx]

Awful deal for the Reds. Kearns and Lopez, while not being superstars, are affordable talent. I think between the 2 of them this season, they are making less than 4.5 million, and both have 2 more seasons after this before they hit free agency. The Nats sent middle relievers, which are always overpriced considering the reliability and predictability of middle relief, and Royce Clayton, who is a shade above Christian Guzman. I really cant figure out how this deal is close at all.

[RotoAuthority]

You may be right, but Bray and Harris may turn out to be a couple of very solid big leaguers under the Reds' control for quite a while. Definitely true on the predictability of middle relief though.

[RotoAuthority]

Am I allowed to change my mind? After careful analysis this trade just plain sucks for the Reds. Any gains this year are questionable, Clayton is crap, and Harris and Bray are question marks. Not impressed with Lopez, but I like Kearns quite a bit as a CF. A good GM would've traded them individually and gotten way more, or else kept them until the offseason.

[TheRealErik]

"Am I allowed to change my mind?"

No. How dare you! I demand satisfaction! *smacks with dueling glove*

Great trade by Bowden. Now, i'm nervous. Maybe he can convince Minaya to trade Milledge for a Livan Hernandez. I'm frightened.

[RotoAuthority]

I thought Majewski was a better reliever than he is, and everyone is right about Clayton's D as well.

Yeah, who knows what he can extract for Livan, Soriano, and Guillen. He should get Krivsky back on the line, swipe Homer Bailey.

[bdid]

Bowden may have just saved his ass. So far he's turned some average players into a pretty good bat in Kearns, and a SS that could be decent. If he gets something really good for Soriano...WOW! Remember, he really only gave up Wilkerson for Sori. Nice Work Bowden...

By the Way, Monger, We haven't heard anything from your Mets source lately, what gives?

[Blue]

Bowden has a lot of talent right now, but give him time. He'll eventually squander it.

[ptk420biatch]

As a cubs fan I am really pissed about this deal. I would have given them maddux,howry, and perez for lopez and kearns.I think that is better than what they got from Was.

[Boltron]

Perhaps everyone here dosent know much about kearns and lopez. While they are everyday quality players lopez is doing a horrible job at short stop this year and Kearns is shaky at bat and injury prone. Clayton is a veteran and can teach edwin encarnacion and brandon phillips some things. The reds went out to get relief and they got it. We produced 14 hits thursday night without Lopez and Kearns and our bullpen almost gave up the game. Dont mark this trade as bad yet, everyone has not seen what can happen.

[Rashidi]

"Hell, the Mets have plenty of relief pitching. They have Lindstrom and Ring in the minors. I'm sure the Reds could have gotten a Pedro Feliciano from the Mets along with one of those two minor leaguers for a Felipe Lopez."

Not a chance. The Mets have no use for Lopez seeing as how they have the best leftside of the infield in the game. Feliciano has an ERA under 3 and has been striking out close to a batter an inning, and is their only LHP middle reliever ( closer Billy Wagner and long man Darren Oliver do not count).

[Rashidi]

"Great trade by Bowden. Now, i'm nervous. Maybe he can convince Minaya to trade Milledge for a Livan Hernandez. I'm frightened."

Except Minaya is a competent GM with a track record. Krivsky has been on the job for only 5 months, it was only a matter of time before he made a blunder.

[EM3]

When I first heard about this trade, I honestly thought there was a MASSIVE editing mistake in the press release, omitting the name Alfonso Soriano.

This is just a complete FLEECING by the Nationals.

[Dr Venkman]

"Clayton is a veteran and can teach edwin encarnacion and brandon phillips some things."

So hire another coach. Meanwhile, your starting SS's Royce Clayton.

[bobo]

Honestly, if I'm a Reds fan, I'm suicidal right now.

Yes, it's harder to evaluate defense, but Lopez's offensive contributions can't be ignored. His walk rate is increasing, his strikeout rate is decreasing, he can run (efficiently too), and has shown he can hit for power despite this year's decline.

Kearns' OPS puts him well above average for an OF, and he, unlike Lopez apparently, is good defensively. As stated, he can play an effective CF, and there are only 7 CF with a higher OPS currently. Yes, he's had injury problems, but he's healthy this year. Would you not want Jose Reyes?

You've already said it all about Majewsky and Bray. I see nothing, whatsoever to suggest that they'll be successful. Their ratios are awful and should only get worse going from a pitchers park to a hitters park. Against RH, Majewsky's K/BB ratio is 18/16!!!! I see absolutely nothing to suggest that they can be any better than Guardado, Coffee, or for that matter, Belisle or Justin Germano.

Again, I'm in utter shock. I can't believe the Yankees, for example, desperate for an OF wouldn't have given up much more just to get Kearns.

So the Reds are now starting Denorfia, Clayton, and Hatteberg. Maybe the stars align and Denorfia keeps up his hitting from AAA and the Reds are smart enough to give Valentin more time at first. But I doubt it.

Ugh.

[bobo]

One random thought - any chance of this being the precursor to the rumored Tejada deal?

[RotoAuthority]

Well, the average NL RF should OPS a tad above .800. Kearns is at .843, but his batting average could easily drop 20 points. I'd say he's a notch above average as a hitter, a plus defender, and injury prone. Still, given what little the Nats gave up it's a steal.

That crazy Tejada deal? I 'spose that could be up Krivsky's sleeve. I think that rumor had Kearns and Lopez going somewhere so maybe it was more legit than I thought.

[xxxJamesxxx]

Kearns is well above average in RF if you believe in RATE and RAR, which are two quality fielding statistics. Hes also only 26, so hes probably just entering his peak years now. I think his health and durability have been the only long term concerns on him, its never been about his bat or glove.

The Reds botched this trade, plain and simple.

[RotoAuthority]

I did believe in those things, until I got the Fielding Bible in the mail. He still rates well though.

[xxxJamesxxx]

I have the fielding bible too, and I think thats the single best method, but RATE and RAR also have some merit.

[Awesomeriffic]

Am I missing something or are the Reds going to go with Hatteberg at 1B and *shudder* Dunn in the OF now? Or does that mean Freel has an everyday job?

[bobo]

Dunn's played in the OF all but twice so far this year, so that won't change obviously.

I don't see how they _can't_ play Phillips at short and Freel at 2nd. Clayton is fine as a backup SS.

I don't think the Reds lose _that_ much swapping Lopez for Freel offensively (but I don't know much about defense or how a move to SS will affect Phillips, though that was his original position if I remember correctly).

If Denorfia performs, dare I say the Reds may actually be better as a result of this trade (not that it wasn't a horrible trade, because they surely could have gotten much more)?

And at first, the platoon of Hatteberg and Aurilia is actually pretty good, and I still think Valentin should get some time against righties.

On a side note, how can Valentin possibly be a switch hitter? Check his splits vs. lefties, particularly 2004. Utterly shocking.