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Possible Cubs Matsuzaka Bid Amount

The buzz around Chicago today is that the Cubs plan on submitting a bid of $21 million for the rights to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka.  If other teams believe this leak to be accurate, it may cause them to up the ante if they have not yet submitted bids.

The Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Red Sox are said to be the other four teams in the game.

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Where's this rumor coming from? I'm in the loop and just wondering if it's being said on the radio.

Not on the radio, but from some folks I've talked to with knowledge of the Tribune co.

20 million for the right to pay another 80 million.

Yes, he is excellent, and yes Japan is no joke... but the dude's thrown 1400+ innings and not one of them on the major league level. I imagine he will be a very good pitcher, but there's really no telling what's going to happen.

This is AJ Burnett money if you ask me. Seems like a big commitment that at best will give you an equal return on your investment. Ichiro was a career .350 hitter with a 90 mph fastball and he cost 27 million for his first three years.

I'd read about that... I think that history of abuse should make him a bad fit for the Cubs. The Cubs would have the filthiest rotation of all time if all those guys could stay healthy, however (Zambrano, Prior, Matsuzaka, Wood, Hill).

Matsuzaka will skyrocket to the top of my favorite major leaguers list, and I wish him nothing but the best. All that being said, the expectations and price are setting him up for a difficult time. He's just not a "wise" acquisition unless you think he can be Roger Clemens.

He's worth getting if you have no budget:
Mets, Yankees, Red Sox.

Desperately need pitching:
Rangers.

Or need to make a splash:
Cubs.

I feel like it's really gonna be between the Mets and Yankees, and if it's true about the Yankees not wanting to bid over $20 million then it really makes the Mets look like the frontrunners. I hope I'm not being too optimistic here.

Operation shutdown... you say that he will give you at best an equal return, but I think he may well pay for himself if he can draw a large Japanese fan base. Add to that the fact that he'll be worth some wins, especially for teams that need pitching (which all these teams do).

I feel like it's really gonna be between the Mets and Yankees, and if it's true about the Yankees not wanting to bid over $20 million then it really makes the Mets look like the frontrunners. I hope I'm not being too optimistic here.

Operation shutdown... you say that he will give you at best an equal return, but I think he may well pay for himself if he can draw a large Japanese fan base. Add to that the fact that he'll be worth some wins, especially for teams that need pitching (which all these teams do).

I don't know what the Japan effect would be in dollars, but my guess is they'd be tuning in every five games.

Ichiro got posted at the absolute height of ridiculous salaries to a west coast team with a Japanese owner and he demanded only $27 million ($13 million posting, 14 million salary over 3 years). Ichiro plays everyday and provides excitement every at bat. He had multiple skills (contact, power, speed, fielding) that guaranteed he'd be productive and no durability concerns.

The best pitcher ever draws the biggest pitcher salary ever (Clemens at $22 million) and consistently produces Cy Young numbers in his home town. Assuming the total compensation for the pickup is $100 million over 5 years, you're paying Matsuzaka as much. 6', 187 lbs, 1400 innings, age 26. Who are we kidding anyway, it doesn't matter if he earns his salary, it's New York.

I never really understood the pitcher abuse argument. It's obvious he's been pitching a ridiculous amount of innings for a ridiculously long time. If this were the case, wouldn't he have already had some sort of complication, whether it be major or minor?

A lot of people keep expecting Carlos Zambrano's arm to fall off every season (because Baker's an idiot), and nothing happens, he just keeps pitching better and stronger. Maybe Matsuzaka's mechanics are just so impeccible that he rarely, if ever, has any discomfort or injury?

I just figure if he's been throwing a lot of innings, he'd have had some sort of hold up by age 26.

I personally think he'll be fine wherever he goes, and I think he'll dominate as well. But that's just me

Elbow trouble shut him down in 2002. Zambrano=huge, Matsuzaka=tiny.

Ahh, did not know that. Every time I read something about him, everyone mentions he throws too many pitches, but never mentions any injury history

This i think is absolutely crazy. Why in the world are they going to spend that kind of money on this player that MIGHT be good when they can spend it on proven players. Take the Mets for example when they rebuilt their team did they go to Japan? No they pulled in players that are known to be good and proven(Delgado, Beltran, Etc.....) I believe this is the problem with Jim Hendry, He wants himself look good but i think there is so much more he could do. 20 Million is a lot to spend on one person. You could get Zito for less than that. I hope the cubs opt out of this one.

Didn't the Mets give Kaz Matsui 8MM a year?

True on Zito. Durability isn't a question and while he may not be dominant, he's a reliable #1.

I don't think the Cubs are crazy for bidding on Matsuzaka. Schmidtt has already stated he wants to stay on the west coast, Zito will most definitely sign with a New York team. No harm in being agressive - it can't get any worse than last season.

I have a feeling that the Mets have the inside track...I have nothing to back that up, it's just a gut feeling.

Minaya is very crafty and I have to think that if the Mets are involved he will play to win. He's gotten marquis players the last two years and I don't expect this year to be any different.

First, about Schmidt...Read the Olney article. He hasn't said he'd only go west. His agent denies that.

Second... Matsui got 21 million over 3 year...roughly 7 million per. It will cost that much just to speak to Matsu...and then at least another 50 million after that. That is 70 million over 4 years. Not nearly a close call between the two. And besides, that was Jim Dummy Duquette. Omar has since rid the Mets of almost all of the Duquette mess. I think Zambrano is about all that is left. THe other poster was referring to Omar's moves.

true about matsui, good point because i think he was like a 6 time allstar or something in japan and a great fielding and hitting SS. You simply dont knw how a guy will react to big league pitchers, or in this case batters, but this is a business, and risks have to be taken if u want the reward

Why is throwing a lot of pitches automatically an indication of injury. Effort is what causes injuries. Matsuzaka's 2002 injury was related to the fact that at that point he was consistently pitching in the 97-100 range. He has said that he learned after that that he doesnt have to throw full effort every pitch. If the innings are easy it doesnt really matter how many you throw. Just look at old school pitchers. They were often small and often threw enormous amounts of innings.

My only concern with getting Matsuzaka is the adjustment. America is way different than Japan and so is american baseball. Jose Contreras had issues adjusting to America and I would worry about the same.

I dont doubt Matsuzaka's ability. In regards to size Johan Santana is 6' 195 he doesnt seem to have much health or durability issues. Roy Oswalt is 6' 170, Maddux is 6' 170. Those guys are highly durable and none of them are big. Why does the fact that Matsuzaka is small lead you to believe he will be injured often?

Matsuzaka suffered a groin injury this year, a common injury for the small pitcher. Oswalt has been beset by groin and intercostal injuries, and his declining K-rate may reflect that or reflect an adjustment to make quicker outs.

It's a lot easier for a big guy to throw hard, little guys require a lot more leg drive to generate that type of velocity. Wagner's the most durable little power guy, but even he had Tommy John.

Maddux has never been a power pitcher, so I don't think he applies.

Pedro has fallen apart.

From a biomechanical standpoint, it's just a lot easier for big guys to throw hard. That doesn't mean all small power pitchers are destined for injury, but it's easy to see how they might wear down.

I don't think $21 million to negotiate is crazy at all. This guy has incredible stuff, and almost everyone that has seen him play, including Japanese hitter now in the MLB, say he'll be a success in Major League Baseball. Also, people, if there are this many scouts from this many teams that think this highly of him, there's probably some merit to their claims.

The Cubs have to add a front-of-the-line starting pitcher to their rotation. Who are our options through free agency? Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito.

Let's start with Schmidt...
First off, this guy is going to turn 34 in January. He's not nearly as dominant as he was at one time, and he's had arm problems. Everyone can shudder over Matsuzaka's high pitch counts and the 1400 innings he's pitched, but Schmidt is 8 years older with almost 2000 miles on his arm. He's going to command at least a 4 year deal, and he's also gonna want a couple of dollars over that time. Whoever signs him better hope he stays healthy and somewhat dominant through his age 38 or 39 years. To me, he's a huge risk.

Barry Zito is very good pitcher who has knee-buckling curveball that makes people drool. However, his ERA, while above average, is not overwhelming. While one could make the case that his stats would improve in the NL, let's not forget that he's been pitching in a big pitcher's park with more foul territory than any other park in the majors. He's also more of a flyball pitcher. I've been saying this for a long time: I don't think Wrigley Field would be kind to Barry Zito.

I guess we could try to get a top starter via trade, but, right off hand, I can't think of any teams that are dying to give away good starters. The White Sox have some to spare...enough said. I'm not hot on Freddy Garcia and Javier Vaszquez anyhow. If a team's going to trade off a good starter, they're going to want something in return, either in prospects (the Cubs don't have any to give) or valuable major league talent (the Cubs don't have any of that to give, either). As far as Bonderman, Wrigley is not Comerica. Willis? He's had one really good year as a starter, and his delivery scares the hell out of me.

The moral of the story is that I think it's a real smart move to give the money to Matsuzaka, then sign a couple of middle/bottom of the rotation type of pitchers.

Yes but Matsuzaka isnt a pitcher who rely's on his power extensively he sits in the 92-94 range only going up to 96 when he needs the strikeout. From what I have heard Matsuzaka didnt suffer a groin injury this year so I am curious where you heard that? I expect DMat to put up 200 innings every year at around a 3.5-3.8 ERA and 170-180 K's

Here's how Matsuzaka's delivery looks, not quite at full extension.

http://rotoauthority.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/matsuzaka.jpg

We could go through 10 small power pitchers (Wagner, Santana, Pedro, etc.) and 10 big ones (Lidge, Halladay, Clemens, Cabrera, Ryan, Johnson, etc.) and in almost every instance the little guys motions are gonna appear a lot more violent and taxing.

Possibly that's because little people like to appear nastier than they really are. The psychology of being small. They aren't throwing harder, they just want to look that way.

J/K. Height=leverage.

I completely understand the physics behind it. Bigger guys have a lot easier job creating velocity due to the plane they are throwing on. What I am saying is that a small guy who doesnt really rely on velocity can easily perform without injury. Matsuzaka isnt a power pitcher, he has a good fastball but he doesnt throw full effort each pitch and he relies on location and his breaking pitches a lot. By most reports I have read he stays mostly in the low to mids 90's only throwing harder when he needs to.

He hasnt had a history of injuries so I see no reason going forward to expect them. I think the effort of the delivery is more of an indicator of injury risk than size is. Kerry Wood was a big guy but he had a weird rotation and that caused a lot of his injury issues IMO.

If you look back in the history of baseball their are plenty of small pitchers who threw a lot of innings their whole career but never missed significant time. I know baseball was different back then but it still applies.

Prediction:
Scenario One
Royals win the Bid. Unless Boras said he won't play for them so they don't bid.

Scenario Two:
Rangers Make winning bid at 47 million...
Rangers also make 55 million bid just to make sure...
Then Hicks hears a rumor that the DRays will put down 75 million, and Spends 85 million to negotiate.
Cubs finish 2nd with 23 million dollar bid...
Hicks Trades Matsuzaka after two years and spending close to 160 Million for 4 years...He sends Matsu to the Yankees for Carl Pavano who will win 14 games this year. he'll end up paying half of the Matsuzaka salary, and all of Pavano's.

Or 3... Mets don't bid, Yanks win with 26 million dollar bid.

#2 is most likely to happen...85 million to negotiate, then a 4 year 70 million dollar contract for the Rangers and Tom Hicks

lol bdid...I was gonna thinking about posting something like that. Haha...

It's funny, because it's SO possible!

Either body size poses an inherent injury risk. PITCHING poses an inherent injury risk.

To me, DMat just seems like a can't miss, especially after today's USA Today article on him. Being from an AL market (Cleveland), I'm rooting for him to end up with the Red Sox/Rangers/Yankees, just so I can see him play. Well, not so much the Yankees.

It seems to me that Japan is land of inflated power numbers. Everyone says Iwamura can't hit the same number of home runs he hits there, and we've seen the same with Hideki Matsui. So whether that's a Coors effect or the outfield isn't as deep, neither seems to affect Matsuzaka there. Which leads me to believe he'd be just as good against better MLB hitters. Even if the bandbox effect is just from general bad pitching, Matsuzaka clearly is an exception.

So what's a can't-miss worth? If you have the money to spare or don't need money for offense, he's worth The Last Guy's Bid + 1 million. And that seems to be what most GMs think.

Oh, by the way. Let's say the Rangers get Matsuzaka, keep Teixeira(sp?), and maybe, I dunno, trade Blalock for more pitching. With the Reverse Curse of losing Buck Showalter as manager (Yankees, Diamondbacks), does that make them the World Series winner?

Nolan Ryan, 6'2" 195 LB. Not that much bigger than Matsuzaka, Power pitcher, & more K's than anyone will ever get. You think those 2 inches & 8 LB is the difference, or is it mechanics & genetics.

I see no reason for the Cubs not to make a high bid for Matsuzaka. This guy will be at least a good pitcher, the Cubs have Zambrano and possibly Hill as their starters for next year. Even if Matsuzaka turns out to be a bust, you can't get any worse than worst and that's what the Cubs were last year. This is a team in one of the biggest markets in baseball and they need to start spending money like all the rest of the big market teams.

BTW, I'd take Pedro's age 26 - 31 yo seasons anyday over any other pitcher in MLB right now. The contract will be for 5 years, not 10 when he'll likely be broken down. Sign me up!

I will add that the same goes for signing Aramis Ramirez. He might not be the best third baseman in the MLB but he does hit for power and drives in a good number of runs. Take him away and the Cubs are down to 1.5 strong bats in the line-up (Derrek Lee being the 1 and Jacque counting as half a bat). Even if it takes overpaying for Ramirez and Matsuzaka, this is a team that brings in well over 3 million people annually with the second or third highest ticket prices in baseball, there is no excuse for not spending as much money as the Mets or Boston (however, you can just forget about the Yankees).

I think a lot of people are going to be suprised how much the cubs spend this offseason. My guess is 25 mill bid for Matsuzaka 6 yr 90 mill contract. Aram will get a 5 yr 65 mil contract. Plus I would look for the cubs to make at least one big trade. I have read the cubs would be willing to trade Hill, Jones, and Bonderman for a top bat or pitcher.

I'd like to see them trade Bonderman, that would be interesting.

They should trade Bonderman for DLee. Sounds fair to me.

Anyway, what's the timeframe on the posting for DM? I know the deadline is today, but when are the results made public? This has probably been posted 1000 times already, sorry...

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