2007 Top 50 Baseball Free Agents

Alright, it's time for my second annual Top 50 Free Agents list. 

I used to rag on ESPN for being so far off on predictions, and then I tried it myself.  My list, which came out on October 25th of last year, had 12 out of 50 correct.  OK for a first try, I suppose.  Steve Phillips was at 9 correct.  It's mostly a crapshoot to be honest. 

Still, it's great fun to try to piece together the free agent puzzle.  I've been stewing over this thing for a couple days now, conferring with many excellent intelligent friends/bloggers.  Thanks to all for the assistance.  Without further ado, here's the MLBTradeRumors.com Top 50 Free Agents list.

1. Daisuke Matsuzaka - Yankees.  Cashman needs a #1 starter, and not many teams can take on this kind of risk for such a huge amount of money.  I think he's a Yankee all the way.  Seattle stepping down only increases the chances.

2. Alfonso Soriano - Phillies. Pat Gillick might have some competition from the Mets, but the Phils seem serious about spending big-time money for another superstar level player.  Soriano and Howard could provide a ton of Ks and home runs as a tandem.

3. Aramis Ramirez - Cubs. Sportswriters like to spew silly things about how Ramirez didn't "carry the team" when Derrek Lee was out and how he's lazy.  Somehow I doubt these minor, partly made-up issues are on Jim Hendry's mind as he negotiates with the 28 year-old third baseman.  The contract could run as long as six years.

4. Barry Zito - Padres.  We know the Padres aren't particular fond of Scott Boras, but who really is?  He might be the best bet for a long-term contract for a pitcher, and the Padres have over $30MM to play with this winter.  Peavy/Young/Zito/Hensley looks mighty solid to me.

5.  Barry Bonds - Giants. I don't buy the "lack of interest" angle for a second.  When a player gets on base 45% of the time, wants a one or two-year deal, and is poised to break a major record, many teams are going to inquire.  We all know the negatives: former(?) 'roid usage, the attitude, the age, the defense.  But from a strictly baseball sense, the pros outweigh the cons by a long shot.  I just can't see the Giants letting him leave after all they've been through together.   

6. Jason Schmidt - Mariners.  After passing on Daisuke Matsuzaka, I think the Ms will pony up for perhaps the next best option.  This is a team that had no problem handing $40MM to Jarrod Washburn.  Schmidt is a risky long-term bet but so were Wash and Richie Sexson.  Add in the much-mentioned fact that Schmidt hails from Washington state, and we have a match.

7. Roger Clemens - Astros. I think he is up for more, despite the steroid allegations and such.  We could all do without the will he/won't he drama this time though.  The Red Sox will certainly give him a call as well, but the family arrangement with Houston is pretty sweet.  Plus, a Carlos Lee signing could convince the Rocket to give it one more try.

8. Carlos Lee - Astros. Almost seems like a foregone conclusion.  Tim Purpura has $30 million to burn, leaving room for one huge bat even if the two 40-something starters return.  Lee lives on Drayton McLane's ranch in the spare bedroom or something like that so that's a factor I guess.

9. Gary Matthews Jr. - Cubs. And to think they placed him on waivers back in '01.  Plenty of clubs (White Sox, Angels) would like to add Matthews after his career year.  While he'll be 33 next year, Sarge Jr. plays a fine center field and will still be an above average hitter for his position even after some regression.

10. Tom Glavine - Mets. It's either Mets or Braves, and the Mets make a lot more sense financially.  The newspapers report that a deal could be close, although they have backed off recently.

11. Vicente Padilla - Mets. Minaya may crave a big-name addition to the rotation, but there are only so many to go around. He'll be 29 next year, making him a younger free agent.  Bring in Padilla, Sexson, Freel, Dmitri Young, and Ponson and you've got a head start on the All-DUI team.  Francisco Liriano, Esteban Loaiza, B.J. Upton, and Rafael Furcal are not available, however.  Wow DUIs are popular in baseball now that I think about it.

12. Frank Thomas - A's.  Reports indicate that Big Frank and the A's are not too far from an agreement.  An Adam Dunn trade could be the backup plan, but right now it looks like Thomas.  We should be cautious not to count our chickens before they hatch, as Frank has a rep for chasing maximum dollars.

13. Ray Durham - Giants.  The Giants have a lot of free cash, and Ray Ray is coming off his best year yet.  Kevin Frandsen would be OK, but Durham would be much preferred.

14. Jim Edmonds - Cardinals. As the price of Edmonds is essentially $7 mil for one year, it'll be hard to cut ties and decline that option.  He redeemed himself in the playoffs somewhat.

15. Jose Guillen - Pirates. Not too many teams are in need of a right fielder, but the Bucs could be one if Xavier Nady plays first.  Because he lost 2006 to injury, Guillen could provide an affordable power bat on a two-year deal.

16. Akinori Iwamura - Indians. The Phillies and Padres will be in hard on him as well.  Iwamura could be one of the best bargains of the offseason.  He could play mainly second base for the Tribe but his assistance could be needed on the left side of the infield.

17. Mike Mussina - Yankees. Moose hasn't made much noise about fielding offers from other teams.  I think he stays and tries to get that ring in New York.

18. Greg Maddux - Dodgers. Colletti would like to bring Maddux back; Mad Dog was excellent in 73 innings as a Dodger.  He will probably take a one-year deal and is a lock for 200 innings.

19. Julio Lugo - Red Sox. Lugo's time spent in L.A. hurt his stock, but he's still the best free agent shortstop by a long shot.  The Red Sox tried to trade for him this summer and I think they'll snag him this winter.  Other options include the Blue Jays or the Mets as a 2B.

20. Andy Pettitte - Astros. Pettitte could very well retire; we probably won't know for a while.  He posted a 2.80 ERA in the second half to salvage some value.  There will be plenty of interest if he fields offers from other clubs.

21. Moises Alou - Orioles. Baltimore is a place where Mo can shift between left field and DH to preserve his knees.  He led all free agents in slugging percentage but will have a hard time staying on the field.

22. Adam Kennedy - Cardinals. The scrappyish Kennedy could be one of the left-handed bats the Cards need.  He's more about defense, though, and that fits with Jocketty's preference for contact pitchers.  The Angels no longer need his services with Howie Kendrick ready.

23. Gil Meche - Blue Jays. Which free agent pitcher can the Jays lure out to Toronto?  My guess is Meche.  He's among the top second tier options and will be just 28 next season.

24. Kei Igawa - Cubs. The Cubs have a clear need for a starter or two, and an increased focus on scouting Japan could lead to Jim Hendry to Igawa.  Only one team can get Matsuzaka, after all.  Igawa would be a fine consolation prize.

25. David Dellucci - Cardinals. An affordable, professional, left-handed hitter to play left field.  Dellucci could also lead off if need be.

26. Ted Lilly - Giants. Lilly hopes to return to the Bay Area, but the A's probably won't have him.  The Giants are in decent shape in the rotation but might prefer some stability instead of opening the season with Noah Lowry, Jonathan Sanchez, and Tim Lincecum at once.

27. Jeff Weaver - Cardinals. The Cards obviously need a starter or two. Probably two.  Weaver had success under Dave Duncan after an awful stint with the Angels.  Even with the World Series heroics and Scott Boras he could be a mild bargain.

28. Jeff Suppan - Orioles. Suppan is primed to be one of the worst signings this winter.  I can see the Orioles making such a move.  Someone will sign up for four years of mediocrity at $30MM+.  As usual, the O's will probably miss out on the first tier guys.

29. Luis Gonzalez - Giants.  Gonzo is the godfather of Bruce Bochy's childen or something like that, so it seems like a good fit.  OK, I made that up.  But he's old and the Giants love that attribute in a player.  Todd Linden may be worth a shot in right but the Giants need some kind of stability in left.

30. Juan Pierre - Dodgers. There aren't that many center fielders out there, and I don't see Colletti entering '07 with some sort of Repko/Kemp/Drew thing in center. Pierre just seems like a Colletti-type signing to me.

31. Nomar Garciaparra - Angels. Even with a possible Miguel Tejada acquisition, Nomar can come in and play some first base or DH.  He'd have some name value as an acquisition for the Halos.

32. Frank Catalanotto - Rangers. Not only is he a former Ranger, but they tried to trade for him this summer.  Texas has pretty good outfield options in Nelson Cruz and Brad Wilkerson, but stability and flexibility with Catalanotto and Lofton makes sense.

33. Dave Roberts - Rockies. The Rox are going to find a center fielder one way or another.  If they miss out on Gary Matthews Jr. Roberts looks like the guy.  He's a helpful player but may have a hard time playing above average CF defense and staying healthy.

34. Woody Williams - Cardinals. Williams has been rumored a future Astro for some time, but he also wouldn't mind playing the Cards again.  He's very much Walt Jocketty's type.

35. Trot Nixon - Phillies. The need for right fielders isn't huge this year.  Nixon's power is declining but he's a fine defender and popular player.  This signing might hinge on a Burrell trade.

36. Kenny Lofton - Rangers. Someone has to fill the void in center if Matthews tests the market and finds something better.  Why not a 48 year-old speedster?  Should Matthews and Lee leave, the Rangers will have a lot of question marks in the outfield. 

37. Adam Eaton - Mariners. The Mariners haven't been afraid to make several major free agent signings in one offseason.  Inking Washington natives Eaton and Schmidt would mean reliance on only one of Jake Woods and Cha Seung Baek, a good thing.  The whole "hometown" reasoning usually isn't a great guide to free agent destinations, but this makes sense.

38.  Randy Wolf - Rangers.  It'll be a somewhat risky signing, but the Rangers need some starters.  I only have them down for one free agent starter, so another would have to come via trade.  I could see a major splash with a Young or Teixeira trade.

39. Mark Mulder - A's.  Mulder still has friends on the A's and could be a bargain for Billy Beane on an incentive-based deal.  The Orioles have been mentioned as well, but are probably the third choice after the A's and Cards.

40. Kerry Wood - Cubs. Wood has a chance to be an important cog in the Chicago bullpen.  Or he has a chance to flame out for the millionth time.  He looked dominant out of the 'pen for a brief stint in '05.  For once, no one is counting on him for anything.  Except me.  C'mon Kerry, you can do it.  Pitch 60 innings.

41. Eric Gagne - Indians. Another wild card but possible bullpen ace.  Mark Shapiro doesn't have an aversion to Scott Boras, and the Tribe has a strong need for a closer.  He can sign a Joe Borowski type or roll the dice on an incentive deal for Gagne.  Or both, I suppose.

42. Jose Valentin -  Reds.  I'm having a hard time pinning down a good destination for Valentin.  He had a career year after an awful '05; he'll be 37 next year.  Perhaps if the Reds move Brandon Phillips to short they'll sign Valentin for a decent price to play second.

43. Rich Aurilia - Cubs. Not sure where Aurilia could go and be a starter.  Perhaps he could play third for the Dodgers, but they acquired Wilson Betemit last summer.  He'd be a fine fit as the Cubs' second baseman for a year, even with Ryan Theriot, Freddy Bynum, and Ronny Cedeno hanging around. 

44. Mark DeRosa - Phillies. There have definitely been some whispers that DeRosa might jump to Philly if they offer him a starting job.  How about third base?  Don't forget that he went to UPenn.

45. Joe Borowski - Giants. There aren't a lot of decent closers out there.  JoBo would be an OK addition in San Francisco.  He's one guy who could slide into middle relief without a tantrum if Armando Benitez shows something.

46. Aubrey Huff - Padres. Some concerned Pads fans think the team could try Russell Branyan as the starting 3B.  I think Kevin Towers will go after some kind of "name" player, with Huff as a decent option.  Remember, the Padres have quite a bit of money to burn.

47. Craig Wilson - Blue Jays. J.P. Ricciardi has liked Wilson for some time, and now he has a need for a LF or DH depending on where Adam Lind plays.  I think Wilson would come out to Canada for a chance at a regular role and a team that respects his abilities.  Mets could be a possibility as well.

48. Ryan Klesko - Tigers.  In Klesko we have a patient left-handed slugger on the cheap who claims he's finally healthy.  Why not throw him a few mil to find out?  Obviously the Tigers would do more than just sign Klesko; I think they'll go the trade route this winter.

49. Kevin Millar - Orioles. Perhaps his second half resurgence saved him?  I can't find too many other teams where Millar could be mostly a regular, so he might sign for a little less to stay another year.

50. Miguel Batista - Rockies. One of the game's best groundballers would work in the Colorado rotation.  He wouldn't be spectacular, but the Rockies need a starter or two.  Three if they trade Jason Jennings.   

As a disclaimer, I realize that plenty of teams with money to burn don't have a proportionate amount of free agents from the Top 50.  The Royals, Dodgers, White Sox, and Blue Jays seem particularly under-represented.  What can I say - there are more than these 50 to go around, and the trade market should be lively.  Also I suggest that you bust out a spreadsheet and give this a shot; it's a challenge to make it all fit in a reasonable way.

Some pretty good players missed the cut for the Top 50.  Guys like El Duque, Mike Stanton, Wes Helms, Mike Piazza, Gregg Zaun, Cliff Floyd, and Jamie Walker were on the fringes and could easily belong. 

Comments

[start_wearing_purple]

Normally I don't whine about this but I think its warented... why isn't Loretta on anyone's list. He's a career 300 hitter who yes has gone down hill but still makes good contact, he's a smart number 2 hitter, short range but a decent fielder... He's got to AT LEAST be on the list instead of Millar...

[RotoAuthority]

I don't see a lot of value in a guy like Loretta. Mildly above average OBP, negative power, poor D, 35 years old, costs maybe $4MM.

[DoctorCurveBall]

You gave the Red Sox one signing, Julio Lugo. I don't even think they'll go after him that much. Their fans love Alex Gonzalez and he's a better value dollar for dollar. They'll run for Zito, Soriano, and El Caballo for the big names, and will probably look into Joe Borowski and Ryan Klesko as well.

[RotoAuthority]

Klesko and JoBo, I can see. Those could be smart Red Sox type signings. Any of those big 3, I highly doubt it.

[DoctorCurveBall]

And by the way, Derek Jeter winning the gold glove over Alex Gonzalez was a load of it.

[Baseballfan79]

Kerry Wood is the type of FA the marlins would pluck up. Give him a 1 year deal with a high potential as a closer. He could be one of our "fixer uppers"

Benitez, Borowski, Jones, etc etc etc.

The marlins always get 1 and fix them up.

[Kramerica Industries]

THe big three I doubt it as well but if they trade MAnny things would change,I still think though that Boston or the Mets will end up "stealing" MAts away from the Yanks
I liked the pick of Gagne to the indians but if Borowski gose to the Giants then who do you think will be the REd Sox closer?

[Kramerica Industries]

Jaime Walker will have alot of value aton actually Boston both New York teams the teams in LA almost every team in baseball will shown some interest except for the celler dwellers

[Thrillhouse26]

I think the Phils rumored interest in Soriano is smoke and mirrors and is cursory at best beyond that. I think Dellucci stays cuz Phils will probably offer him arbitration and Cards get Nixon instead.

[SpecialFNK]

i have to disagree with Lugo going to the Red Sox. not because they allready have Gonzalez but thats a good argument, but because i think Lugo will go to the Blue Jays. ive allready seen reports that Lugo is interested in Toronto and he wants them to make him an offer, plus Toronto even went after him at the trading deadline. the Jays now have even more money to spend than last offseason to not only sign a starting pitcher and give Wells an extension but to also fill their need for a SS.
clearly the Jays need a SS after the failure of Russ Adams and Lugo not only fills that need but can also fill the role of leadoff hitter.

[Rayman]

Which player(s) currently in the majors would you compare Iwamura to?

[RotoAuthority]

Alex Gonzalez is a free agent. Both the Jays and Red Sox need a SS. Could go either way in my opinion.

Maybe Mike Lowell/Morgan Ensbergish numbers for Iwamura?

[ozziethesaint]

I don't think you are very in touch with the Cards situation Roto....

Their main concerns going into Free agency,

Figure out CF situation.
Jimmy Edmonds is the best option, once you figure in the 3 mill buyout, there's not a better option at 7mill.

2b
Belliard is the number 1 target.AKennedy isn't the kind of player Walt will look for because you need someone with a bat since Yady probably isn't going to hit over the long season.

SP...
Suppan is looking at the Cards as his 2nd choice behind a major payday from the Yanks. Weaver will be given every chance to come back. as will Mulder, but on a 1 yr incentive laden deal. Which I can see him agreeing to, that way if he bounces back, he's in line for a serious payday again. Regardless, the Cards will be active in FA to get a #2 starter. and they will bring in a total of 3 starters. Izzy is defintiely not going to be OD ready. So Wainwright will stay in the pen for next season and possibly longer.

OF...
Delluchi and Nixon are always tossed out there, but neither fits what the cards need. more than likely it's going to be Preston Wilson coming back. Assuming Edmonds is back, We're stuck with lazy Juan for another couple seasons and Dunc is going to play LF with Wilson playing against tough LHP's. though I would love to see the Cards upgrade in RF

[RotoAuthority]

I would say I was out of touch on it until conferring with Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos. He mentioned that the team wants LH bats like Kennedy and Dellucci.

I don't see Suppan staying with the Cards unless he plays at a discount.

Source tells me that the Cards are Mulder's second choice. Sure, I could see it.

Cards always chase top tier starters, usually miss out.

I don't have a link but I think Cards brass is leaning heavily towards Wainwright in the rotation.

Preston Wilson, another RH bat and one who sucks at that. I think bringing him back is highly unlikely.

Before talking to Larry I had Borowski, DeRosa going to St. Louis but he changed my mind.

[Kramerica Industries]

"22. Adam Kennedy - Cardinals. The scrappyish Kennedy could be one of the left-handed bats the Cards need. He's more about defense, though, and that fits with Jocketty's preference for CONTACT PITCHERS. The Angels no longer need his services with Howie Kendrick ready."

You may want to fix that to contact hitters

[purduerowdie]

no,kramerica, i'm pretty sure he meant contact pitcher. as in guys who tend to be groundball pitchers v. power pitchers. kennedy's defense plus his lefty bat would seem to fit the cards needs. I still would like minimanny back instead, though.

[papi4prez]

I also agree that Lugo will not go to the Red Sox, unless he's willing to accept less cash. His skills are not worthy of the money he requests.

Alex Gonzalez should have won the Gold Glove. I find it completely ridiculous that the Red Sox led the league in fewest errors committed, one error shy of tying the all-time record, yet failed to win a Gold Glove. I guess it's more important to hand more Gold Gloves to Chavez and Jeter. Nothing against those guys, they played great defense, but this is a situation where the name was the deciding factor.

[RotoAuthority]

Not that I disagree with you, but maybe Gonzo missed out because he only played 111 games out there.

[papi4prez]

Definitely a possibility. Would have liked to have seen at least one Sox bring home a glove though.

[Kramerica Industries]

hey thanks purdue now it makes a little more sense thanks for clearing that up

[Rayman]

So in Iwamura, would it be right to expect a .270-280 hitter, with around 15-20 homers? If he's taking his supposedly golden glove to second base, i'll take him in a tribe uniform.

[bkoke]

does anyone know Iwamuras profile as in how tall he is and how much he ways because i heard he was 5"7" and 176 lbs i dont know if thats true but if it is im concerned. Im a padre fan and apparently they have interest in him and i dont think i guy that size can hit it out of petco park especially being left handed.

[Thrillhouse26]

Given his position flexibility, How many teams do you see making a push for Iwamura and move him? It seems CLE would use him at 2b and SD & PHI at 3B. The Red Sox...I dunno ?

[dodgerdude17]

The Dodgers will be a bigger player than you think. Coletti has said he will be active this offseason in trying to add a power hitter and 2 starting pitchers (Maddux 1 of those 2). With 35 million to spend I see them landing at the very least the power bat or the frontline pitcher. Lily at the very least I'd say. Pierre really makes no sense. We dont need another leadoff hitter. Russ Martin would be far more valuable as the #2 hitter behind Furcal. Sign a power bat! Soriano? Carlos Lee?

[Yu Hsing Chen]

I have a hard time seeing Philly make such a big splash to go after Nixon Soriano AND Derosa. that would require them to rid of Pat Burrell first for sure. and they are already a very lefty heavy team so Nixon isn't exactly the most logical choice. (albiet not impossible.)

[Kyle]

Nixon would fit in however with the hard nosed type players the Phillies seem to want these days. Although Soriano doesnt. An outfield of Nixon, Soriano, and Rowand would be pretty good defensively though

[wihargo]

Craig Wilson! Back to Canada! I didn't know who he was when the Jays made that Merced/Garcia/Plesac for prospects trade. In retrospect, he was exactly the type of player the Jays trade away. a good one.
I wonder if Ted Rogers is still the Jays all that money they were rumored to be getting.

[thenuge]

Does anyone know anything about this Kei Igawa guy? I'm trying to find stuff about him and having a hard time of it.

[jza1218]

It seemed like fun, so I took some guesses for the top 50 too.

Hope you don't mind...

Here are mine. I'll post my explanations for anything I disagree with from MLBTradeRumors:

Daisuke Matsuzaka NY Yankees

Alfonso Soriano NY Mets I dont think the Phillies get him with Pat Burrell sitting there in LF with a no-trade claus and Utley at second. The Mets have openings at both spots (although I'd prefer him playing in the OF)

Aramis Ramirez Chicago Cubs

Barry Zito SD Padres

Barry Bonds LA Angels Bonds can play occasionally in LF but will primarily DH there. I think Garrett Anderson's career is done and Salmon retiring opens up those two spots.

Jason Schmidt Seattle Mariners

Roger Clemens Houston Astros But only for another partial season...

Carlos Lee Houston Astros He should stay with the Rangers to DH though...Having him in LF is a detriment to any team he's on.

Gary Matthews Jr Chicago Cubs

Tom Glavine NY Mets

Vicente Padilla Texas Rangers I think he stays. He had a fine season there although he walked to many batter.

Frank Thomas Oakland A's

Ray Durham SF Giants

Jim Edmonds St Louis Cardinals

Jose Guillen SF Giants Inexpensive due to his coming off of injury. Provides a decent power bat and solid defense (and a gun for an arm) in RF allowing Winn to shift back to CF.

Akinori Iwamura SD Padres I don't think he'll go to a team like the Indians that doesn't have a large Asian populace. I see him playing the hot corner for the Padres next year

Mike Mussina NY Yankees

Greg Maddux Atlanta Braves Just a hunch

Julio Lugo Boston Red Sox I think Boston will outbid themselves and overpay for Lugo's services.

Andy Pettite Retires I think he's going to go out on his own terms.

Moises Alou Texas Rangers I think they sign him to be a short-term solution in LF and they can DH him when they need to.

Adam Kennedy NY Mets Solid defense and a nice lefty bat at the bottom of the line-up. The Mets get him to fill the vacant 2B position. If not, I want the Mets to pick up Craig Counsell

Gil Meche NY Mets I think that the Mets pick him up to fill out their rotation and to help until Pedro comes back from injury.

Kei Igawa LA Dodgers The Dodgers need a LHSP and Igawa has stated that he hopes to play on the West Coast. With Maddux gone (in my predictions), they will need to fill a spot in the rotation as well.

David Dellucci St Louis Cardinals

Jeff Weaver Texas Rangers He goes to help their weak SP staff. They show no signs of shyness about dealing with Scott Boras (Kevin Millwood, Brad Wilkerson, Mark Teixeira etc)

Jeff Suppan St Louis Cardinals I think he stays with LaRussa. It'll be a horrible deal for St Louis but I think he stays because they need pitching and I think Weaver bolts.

Luis Gonzalez Baltimore Orioles I see them picking him up to play LF and DH

Juan Pierre LA Dodgers

Nomar Garciaparra LA Angels

Frank Catalanotto Toronto Blue Jays I see them keeping him. Ricciardi loves his production and I don't see him going. I see Vernon Wells getting traded though, Rios shifting to CF and Reed Johnson in RF.

Dave Roberts Texas Rangers Splitting time with Alou in LF and it gives the Rangers a legit leadoff hitter who quietly stole 49 bases in 2006.

Woody Williams Houston Astros Short-term option until one or two of their pitching prospects come up in a couple of years

Trot Nixon Boston Red Sox I see him staying with the Red Sox at a discounted price.

Kenny Lofton Colorado Rockies I think Dave Roberts wins in a choice between him and Lofton so thats why I chose him to go to Texas. Colorado has to deal with sloppy seconds.

Adam Eaton Seattle Mariners

Randy Wolf Toronto Blue Jays They replace Lilly's arm with another LHP. He's coming back from Tommy John surgery but he still has a high ceiling.

Mark Mulder NY Mets Incentive-laden deal with the Mets. A nice pitcher's park and maybe a reunion (albeit possibly tumultuous) with Rick Petersen could maybe get him back on the right track.

Kerry Wood Texas Rangers Another incentive-laden deal to get a possible lights-out closer for their team. A return to his Texas roots might be the right move for him because as far as I'm concerned his days in Chicago are numbered.

Eric Gagne Cleveland Indians

Jose Valentin Cleveland Indians Brought in to provide solid defense to a team with a defensively-weak Peralta at SS. Joe Inglett is a decent player but I don't foresee him starting.

Rich Aurilia SF Giants They have a possible opening at 3B if Feliz leaves. Or he can play 2B if they don't re-sign Durham.

Joe Borowski Cleveland Indians Cleveland needs bullpen help desperately and he provides insurance if Gagne and/or Carmona falters.

Aubrey Huff Seattle Mariners He can play either LF or DH with Raul Ibanez.

Craig Wilson New York Mets He can play multiple positions including catcher if you're in a pinch. With Valentin gone, they need someone on their bench who can do be versatile.

Ryan Klesko KC Royals They can play him at 1B with Doug Mientkiewicz gone and/or LF and DH.

Kevin Millar Baltimore Orioles

Miguel Batista Houston Astros They need to help fill out their weak rotation and his groundball to flyball ratio is great for a extreme hitters park like Houston's

[RotoAuthority]

Well there's this stuff...pretty much all I know.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/kei_igawa/index.html

[SpecialFNK]

i hope the Jays DONT go after Craig Wilson. he is another Erik Hinske.. occasional pop, high strike outs, weak defence? maybe better suited for DH and the Jays can use Lind at DH for alot cheaper and spend the money on a more productive player for LF

[DentalPlan]

Mr. Blog Owner, you come off as a Cub hater more than a fan. They dumped Gary Matthews Jr? So did a ton of other teams.

[thenuge]

I seriously don't understand the fascination with Gary Matthews Jr. I would not touch him with a 40 foot pole. The guy is in for SERIOUS regression next year. Take a look at this season versus any season prior to 2006. This is called an outlier. Whoever is foolish enough to pay big bucks to sign Matthews to a 3 or 4 year deal will regret it in a big way.

[RotoAuthority]

Love/hate relationship.

My thoughts on Matthews: even with regression he's gonna hit better than most CFs. Plus he plays above average D. There just aren't a lot of guys like that around for CF. Depends on the bucks I guess...I'm mostly worried about him staying healthy.

[SpecialFNK]

i wouldnt want to be a fan of the team that signs Matthews, isnt he more of a case of a player who had a career year in his contract year? now he will get the money and likely revert back to his previous form before Texas??

[mtex]

First of all, Roto, what's your deal with the Rangers trading M. Young for everyone over the offseason. He's NOT going anywhere this season.

Second of all, if Matthews is being overrated this offseason, it's not by much. Sure, his numbers next season will decline, but not by as much as everyone thinks. He got screwed today for not being the receipient of his first Gold Glove. I know Roto and some others are not a big fan of visual representation and prefer to go with their stats. But if anyone saw him roam that big Ameriquest CF this past season would disagree with today's 'Wells-Ichiro-Hunter' mistake.

[RotoAuthority]

It's just an opinion, I'm entitled to it. I'd trade Mike Young. It ain't a crime Rangers fans. If you told me you might entertain a Derrek Lee trade scenario I wouldn't have a conniption. Anyone can be traded for the right return.

[Dev0]

About the Toronto parts of this here is a nice little tidbit Roto that I read resently and seen Vernon wells and JP Riccardi talk about on TV. Apparently they are in no rush to sign an extension and lead to the idea that they are gonna wait til the end of the season to do something like that.

Considering the Jays are gettign another payroll increase this leads me to believe the Jays may make a big move. I like the idea of Wilson as a DH in Toronto he wouldn't play the OF tho the Jays have the best Defencive OF in the Majors with Wells Rios and Johnson.

That in mind what do you do with Adam Lind if he continues to play well. I think the Jays will get Lugo before the red sox Mainly because if JP Riccardi gets this Salary increase and still doesn't make the playoffs how can you not fire him? Zaun Lugo Lilly Meche to the jays is my prediction. I don't think thats enough to make the playoffs tho I think Meche will burn in the AL east.

[Not Joe Morgan]

Papi4Prez, the Sox fielding percentage means absolutely nothing when you compare it to their 28th overall DER. In an insanely dumbed down world, it means the Sox caught what was hit at them but couldn't range to get anything else. Regardless, this wasn't some transcendent defensive team by any means. Weird, when you think they did have Manny, Youk, Pena and Coco out there. Glovemen, all four.

[mtex]

Then I guess I disagree with 'anyone can be traded for the right return.' What's the right return for a trade for Cal Ripken, or Ozzie Smith, or Craig Biggio? Some players just don't get traded no matter what.

And really. Young for Bedard? Welcome to Disneyland.

[thenuge]

I guess it makes sense that even with some regression, maybe Matthews still hits better than most CF's next season, but with Felix Pie probably needing only one year at the most, why make a multi-million dollar commitment to a guy for 3 or 4 years, when in possibly less than one year you could have a cheaper, younger and probably just better player.

I know that with Felix it's almost like you love him or you hate him, but I really don't think he gets enough credit as a prospect. This year as a 21 (!) year old at AAA, Felix more than held his own, including a huge second half. Give him a year, maybe even less, and the Cubs will have a great option in CF.

[quintjs]

Nice work Roto, sensible list and explainations. About the ONLY one i don't agree on is Clemens.

Personally (and i concede i an biased) I think its Boston or Retirement.

I think not the Yankees and Rangers (and all others are not in it) He has nice memories with the Yankees, but nothing more, he won't ruin it and go back.
Out of the Astros and the Red Sox, I am sure he likes his setup in Houston, but I feel he is getting rather annoyed at posting sub-3 ERA's and only being a .500 pitcher. Carlos Lee won't change that too much, everytime he has an off night, Clemens would lose, and hitting is only at least 35% successful.

At the last home game, Clemens actions said to me he was done with the Astros, and there have been rumours (you would know better than me if they are true or not) that he wanted to go to the Sox, or regreted signing with the Astros.

He has some unfinished business with the Sox, probably will be wearing a Sox cap in the hall of fame, why not finish your career there?

And its not like the Red Sox have a poor team, add a couple more players, and they are World Series contenders. Imagine a rotation including Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon and Clemens ??

*Thanks for not suggesting the Sox will go after the big three too much, ain't going to happen* Lugo may be the biggest FA signing they want*

[Dev0]

You know this would be a really interesting Pool. Have a signup area then each Person gets a Page with the top 50 Free agents and next to hit a Drop down box of the Teams You then select teams for all 50 and then submit it. At the Start of the Regular Season you show some sort of standings or whatever.

[Bear0930pg]

I agree with DodgerDude. The Dodgers will be more active than most poeple think. Colletti has let it be known that the Dodgers have around 35 mil to play with.

First of all, Maddux will return to LA. He was a stud for the short time he was here.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I've said this since midseason. Zito to the Dodgers. Dodgers do good business with Boras clients. Zito will be pricey but he is that left hander the Dodgers need. (Zito/Lowe/Maddux/Penny(TRADE BAIT)/Kuo/Billingsley)

The Dodgers have a lot to work with in my opinion as far as trades go. Brad Penny being the centerpiece to land a Power Bat. Vernon Wells maybe?

I'd like to see Vernon Wells as a Dodger more than I would want to see Juan Pierre. Vernon would give the team everything, power and speed with good D. Pierre on the other hand is basically just speed and average. But Pierre would give the Dodgers more speed. Would be kind of like the Furcal/Lofton duo. Fill the top wit speed and let the others knock em in.

And for some reason, whether I wanna see it or not, I see Rich Aurillia somewhere in this fold for bench reasons. He'd be that emergency player for the infield.

[RotoAuthority]

Love the pool idea though I am not smart enough to create it on the web. Anyone?

[Dev0]

I have a friend that could likely do it altho I doubt for this season. He can be hard to motivate I guess you can say.

Also Vernon Wells is Not going to be traded, if it does happen it will be because the jays are out of the Playoff hunt at the trade deadline. Not before the season or even early in the season tho.

[Baseballfan79]

May I make perhaps a strange statement and say Barry Bonds to the marlins?

He is one of the few players in baseball that can pull in 20-30,000 fans a night by himself. He wouldnt cost as much as traditionally because of his often problems of late. But, he would be someone loria has a reported good relationship with and could pull in a large number of people.

Put him in leftfield, put willingham to 1B where he is more comfortable with (horrible fielder in left). Mike Jacobs has already been rumored often as trade bait to a few teams.

I know most folks dont think the marlins are going to do anything. But with their low payroll this is a move (although he makes me sick to my stomach), that would have a large number of benefits like media exposure, a big time bat that could be placed with miguel cabrera (are you going to IBB Bonds when you have Miguel Cabrera next? Or Cabrera to face bonds? Both were top 4 in IBB last year), couple all of that with then packing that stadium with 30k as he goes for the Record of all Records?

Bonds to the marlins makes Alot of sense at those points. Your thoughts?

[SpecialFNK]

the Jays wont wait until after the season to do something with Wells (if they do they are stupid). they either sign him to an extension now, or if they cant sign him to an extension they then trade him so they can get value for him.

[RotoAuthority]

I think the Bonds idea is very cool, I would love the Marlins to convince him to play there for a year. Kind of how they rented Pudge.

[zumaya103mph]

Klesko with the Tigers?!?!
That's it ... I really think DD is going to be more active than this. We need a solid LH stick in the lineup, but Klesko?!?!
I would hope the Tigers resign the Mayor rather than bring in Klesko.
The big trade rumour here is still Texiera (we'll see during the winter meetings what else comes up) ... so obviously whatever trading the Tigers do will have an impact on their FA acitivies.

[RotoAuthority]

Ah but remember DD can be active without signing big FAs. A Teix trade would qualify but wouldn't go on this list.

[pedroia2007]

Roto... I agree with one of the first posters. If thats the type of offseason you have concerning the top 50 free agents, it's going to be a boring as hell offseason of Red Sox fans while watching Yanks win Matsuzaka. Julio Lugo & thats it. Sox need to beef up their rotation and I definitely see them signing at least one of the above. Please dont tell me your crystal ball says Kyle Snyder will be given the 5th starter's slot :(

[RotoAuthority]

The only top 50 guy the Red Sox signed last year was Mike Timlin. But they also made a major trade to get a starter and made signings of non top 50 but still useful guys like Alex Gonzalez.

[Baseballfan79]

Thank you Roto, I thought it was one of the few FA signings that would make sense for for the Fish.

Specially when remembering that Bonds and Loria are friends and Bonds even flew up to NY on Loria's personal jet durring the year :) It was a good rumor back then and all, perhaps it will pick up.

Imagining 40,000 in Dolphin stadium for marlins games would be interesting to see.

[pedroia2007]

Roto... Alex Gonzalez was the only useful guy the Sox got out of free agency. Rudy Seanez was a hack and was righftully let go to the NL where he belongs. Tavarez was an unclucth reliever who was brought on to be the 7th inning guy and taunted by the fans.

He became a fav favorite in Sept when he solidified himself a short lived role as starter where he posted a 4.05 ERA doing so. 2007 is still a big question how he will be in the bullpen, rocky or good? JT Snow was signed to split first base with Youkilis but proved to be nothing really special in Boston.

[papi4prez]

Just a quick question: what are the Rangers asking for to part with Teixeira? He'd be an excellent player in Boston, though we don't really have the pitching that I'm assuming the Rangers will want.

[RedTRibe]

God I hope the sox dont overpay for Lugo, but they seem in love with him.

[Baseballfan79]

They would want a young ace pitcher and most likely more.

Beckett + Hansen perhaps.

[Doctor Lingerie]

Joe Cowley of the Sun-Times reported today that Ken Williams will pursue a deal centered around a Young for Garcia swap in spite of Freddy's desire to go to the Yanks.

Presumably the Sox will have to include another piece to get that deal made. What do you think Hart's demands would be?

[nrmax88]

just taking a wild guess but maybe garcia and brian anderson to fill the centerfield void, who knows

[nrmax88]

given the new information, that the yankees are hesitant to spend more then 20 mil biddding for daisuke matsuzaka, what does this mean for the mets chances of aqquiring either MATS or Zito?

[nrmax88]

and also roto, about the post of the yankeesnot wanting to spend big bucks for the japanese ace, do you really buy that or do you think steinbrenner is trying to create a lower bidding price or is up to something? I just cant believe with all the money he spends that he wouldnt make a big move for matsuzaka

[ray]

i'm desperatly hoping the dodgers get zito..

http://raysdodgerblues.blogspot.com/

[ray]

i'm desperatly hoping the dodgers get zito..

http://raysdodgerblues.blogspot.com/

[Zonis]

A lot of people are talking about Zito, so as an A's fan who has watched him all these years, I will give a breif statement on him.

Barry Zito started off fcking awesome when he first entered the league. The league, however, seems to have gotten used to him. That is to say, the AL has. He is still an effective pitcher, but it depends on if he is around the strike zone or not. I believe that if he goes to the NL, he will have a huge amount of success. As long as it is not a huge homerun park (then again, he always did well in Texas).

Zito does not fall into the classic pitcher catagory. He does not have an overpowering fastball, so he is not a flamethrower. He is not a finesse lefty either. He will walk a ton of hitters, and is prone to the big inning. Zito is most comperable to a Knuckleballer. I say this because like Knuckleballers, Zito has a unique skill: the ability to keep Batting Averages down (way down) and to have insainly low BABIP. Such a low BABIP is usually not sustainable and fluctuates from year to hear, but Zito apparently can control it, as his Curve Ball seems to act the same way as a Knuckleballer, making him an outlier.

Two Thirds of the Big 3 are in the NL right now, and neither have had real success. Tim Hudson has been mediocer compared to his Oakland years, and Mark Mulder has fallen off the face of the earth (due to poor mechanics caused by and then resulting in further injuries). Barry Zito, though, is unlike Hudson and Mulder in that he does not have an injury history. In fact, Zito has NEVER gone on the DL or missed a start due to injury. I am not even sure he has missed a start before.

If an NL team (Dodgers, Mets, Padres) takes Zito, and signs him to the rumored 5 year, 75 million contract he desires, the thing the team will have to watch is his velocity. Zito makes it on his patented Curveball, a Slider, Change up and Fastball. When Zito is effective, everything he throws is in or around the strike zone, and down. If he leaves the ball up, he will be hit. If he can't hit the zone (and it becomes apparent early on) he will do badly. Expect Zito to go 7 innings. And be thankful for that.

Zito relys on those pitches, but he also relies on his velocity being average. If his velocity slips, he could be in a lot of trouble. Zito is NOT Gregg Maddux, he has bad control. He is a unique type of pitcher that has lots of success while having neither power or pinpoint. Keep that in mind.

And finally, let me say this. If you thought that Randy Johnson was painful to watch in a batters box, I present to you someone even worse.

[quintjs]

Want to comment on a couple of things - papi4prez said about Gonzo and Lowell missing out of Gold Gloves to Jeter and Chavez due to the name factor.

Gonzo played less than Jeter (not 1/2 to make up the errors) but Lowell played easily more games and innings than Chavez.. for one more error?

Nomar to the Angels is a pretty good signing, How many bats do the Angels need to get via the trade market to really compete in the AL? would Nomar and say Tejada be enough?

[nrmax88]

zonis great post, and i think the best part is stating his durability, everyone has something bad to about zito, but the fact is this, he is an innings eater, effective as hell, and never ever gets hurt, good post.
On a seperate note, congrats to carlos beltran for his first gold glove, he deserved it te way he patrolled the big shea outfield.

[Zonis]

Chavez did very well on defense this year, much better then last year (when he didn't deserve it). He was excellent despite being crippled the entire year.

Chavez deserved his.

What I am pissed about is Mark Ellis didn't get it. He was easily the best defensive 2B in the AL, if not majors. He set the MLB record for fielding percentage by a 2nd Baseman!

[Rayman]

I am wondering when Jake Westbrook is finally going to win a gold glove. Seriously, the dude is one of the best fielding pitchers in the majors.

[J~Man]

My 2007 Free Agent Predictions

Daisuke Matsuzaka - Cubs
Because I think they wanna make the biggest splash this offseason

Alfonzo Soriano - Mets
Because the Mets the past 2 years have gotten the BEST free agent player dat the postion they need most

Armais Rameriz - Cubs
I don't see him leavin the Cubs

Barry Zito - Dodgers
I Heard he wants 2 stay out west.. An the
the Dogers need a soild lefty in there rotion an got the $$

Barry Bonds - Angles
I think they will get Bonds because he's dat dangerous person in there lineup dat will help them get back 2 the playoffs an protect Vlad

Jason Schmidt - Yanks
I have been reading that a lot off people in the Yanks org belive he is the best fit 4 the yanks so I see them gettin who they want.. An I don't see them being dat active besides pitchin

Roger Clemens - Redsox
I think if he does come back 4 1 more season it will b with the team he's going into the hall of fame with

Carlos Lee - Rangers
I heard he liked his time with the Rangers an would like 2 stay ... an Plus if they r gonna trade Young or Tex they gonna need some1 with a big bat

Gary Matthews - Cubs
I think he will forgive the Cubs 4 cuttin him an go back 2 the Cubs.. Plus he would b a good fit in there lineup cus he's a switch hitter

Tom Glavine - Mets
I see him coming back 2 the Mets because he's wants a sure chance 2 get 300wins an chance 2 win a ring b4 he go's out.. An plus 2 team up with Maddux 1 more time (Read Maddux)

Vicente Padilla - Mariners
Since Gil Meche is gonna leave I see them taken a chance with Padilla since he did fairly well with the Rangers.

Frank Thomas - A's
I don't see him leavin the A's since they gave him a 2nd chance 2 play wen every1 thought he was washed up.. An I have no clue y he didn't win comeback player of the year or even mentioned in it

Ray Durham - Cards
I see them picking him up cus he showed some life left in him and he still got a couple years left in him an would b a good fit with the Cards

Jim Edmonds - Cubs
This is 2 Screw the Cards both ways. Edmonds because the Cards let him go an the Cubs 2 take some life out of the Cards. An this is assuming Jacque Jones gets traded or Murton doesn't start

Jose Gullien - Braves
I think the Braves take a chance with him because he is a pretty good bat wen he's healthy. An if they toke a chance with Raul Mondsi

Akinori Iwamura - Padres
I think this because he would b on the West side an could Platoon at 3B & 2B

Mike Mussina - Redsox
I think if the Yanks let him walk the Redsox will sneak in the race an snatch him up because he's been pretty good agaisnt them an would 1 up on the Yanks with this surpirse move

Greg Maddux - Mets
I think the Mets get Maddux 2 make Glavin feel more at home an 2 asure Glavin comes back an would give the Mets some Veteran help with Pedro out until like july an Trach&El Duque gone to help out the younger guys

Julio Lugo - Braves
This is assuming they Trade Giles.. An I think they get him cus he would b a good double play person with Edger.. An also it would b a surpirse 2 many

Andy Pettite - Astros
I don't see him coming back an if he does it will b with the Astros 4 1 last try.. An most likely a 1 year deal just incase he does good he can test the market again next year 4 big bucks

Moise Alou - Tigers
He could b the DH they need n would Also
Play the of on certin days.. Not the best of players on the Market but def a great OB person

Adam Kennedy - Indains
He would b a great fit in Cle.. An also he's a pretty good defenseive 2nd Baseman.. An he could hit for avg. An a few out of the park

Gil Meche - Cards
This is assuming they don't get Suppan & Weaver back.. So Meche would fill 1 of there spots in the rotation an he would b a great fit for the Cards an would blance the Rotation

Kei Igawa - Padres
I belive he will wind up with the Padres because its on the West Coast.. An they got a few Jap players on there team an would b a decent pickup 4 them if they miss out on the top guys

David Delluci - Mets
He could end up with the Mets 2 Platoon with Green&Chavez or could come of the bench a b a great Lefthanded bat or could even start if Floyd don't come back..

Ted Lilly - Giants
I Heard he would like 2 stay in the West Coast an the Gaints could b a great Fit 4 him if the A's don't want him.. An he could even b there opening day starter with the rotation they got

Jeff Weaver - Cards
I think he will stay with the Cards cus there laid back an he did a nice soild jump here an sorta got some confidence he needed.. An he worked very well with there pitchin Coach

Jeff Suppan - Nationals
Yes I kno very random but with all the Money they got with not signing Soriano. They should use it on some good pitching an he got b there go 2 guy

Luis Gonzlaz - Royals
Yes very random again but I think he would fit very well in this laid back team. An could make something out of it if he gets a 1year deal 2 make or break him

Juan Pierre - Rangers
I heard they need a leadoff hitter an they will also need a center feilder if Matthews leave. So seems like Pierre could b dat person an if they keep Young dat would b a good 1&2 hitters

Nomar Garciparra - Dodgers
I think he stays with the Dodgers because of the 2nd chance they gave him an prob some unfinished bussniess here with the way the season ended

Frank Catalanotto - Phillies
He would b a great off the bench person 4 them an could even start 4 them if they trade Burrell.

Dave Roberts - White-Sox
I been hearin a lot about Roberts going 2 the White-Sox 2 b there Leadoff guy an takin control of Center so I just went with the flow here

Woody Williams - Astros
I could see him ending up here exspecailly if they don't get either of the two back. An they will b in need of pitching an I'm pretty sure I heard somewere he wants 2 go 2 houston

Trot Nixon - Redsox
I don't see him leavin the RSoxs because idk it wouldn't be the redsox without him he's been with them 4 the good an bad an I don't see them lettin him go

Kenny Lofton - Rockies
I heard they need a leadoff hitter an want Roberts or Pierre.. So I see Lofton as the fall back 4 them

Adam Eaton - O's
I could see the Orioles signing him n hopeing everything turns out 4 them

Randy Wolf - Reds
I see them takin a chance with him an they woll need some pitching.. An not many pitchers wanna go 2 the Reds an I see them pickin him up as a fall back cus none of the big names would come unless by trade.

Mark Mulder - A's
I heard he would like a reunin with the bay area. An it wouldn't b a bad idea with Zito leavin.

Kerry Wood - Yanks
I see the Yanks givin him the a 2 year deal with the 1st year 2 shut him down an hoping the 2nd dat he would come in an take the role as there new closer

Eric Gagne - Dodgers
I don't see him leavin the dodgers an I can't see them giving up on him with all dat has gone down b/w the 2

Jose Valetine - Reds
He would reunite with his brother assuming the resign him.. An he would b a good fit with the Reds an he wouldn't b dat bad of a risk

Rich Aurilla - D'Backs
he could fit in very well with the D'back as a utilty player an bench player n if anything he could start some games at ss an 2b.

Mark Derosa - Cubs
He could b a great fit with the Cubs. An he could play in many postions. He would prob take ova at 2b. An it would work out 4 both sides

Joe Borowski - Yanks
With Villion prob gone an Dotel gone they will need some1 2 eat up some innings 4 them n could close on days Mo got off.

Aubrey Huff - Redsox
He would b a great fit 4 them 2 play either 1B or 3B an could become the player he was a couple seasons ago. N he could b the Bat they been looking 4 if he go's back 2 old ways

Craig Wilson - O's
He could play many postions 4 them an he's a lot better then any1 they had last year at 1B. Could also work 4 both sides cus this will prob b his best shot 2 start somewhere

Ryan Klesko - Min
This is assuming White doesn't come back. So he could b there Full time DH an b a nice Lefthanded hitter 4 them an I think he's still a really good hitter an would fit will with them

Kevin Miller - Tigers
I heard he wants 2 go 2 the Motor City somewhere an I heard they would b interested 4 him 2 play alil 1st n b a Bench Player

Miguel Batista - Mets
He could Start or Releive 4 them. An the Mets have been trien 2 get him 4 the longest.

[Dev0]

man someone likes the national league abit much I think haha. I think more then 5-6 teams will sign top 50 free agents I'm sorry to say haha.

[nrmax88]

j man i hope your right about soriano, but i really have to disagree that is not at all the position they need most they need a starter not a hitter, and sorry but i dont see maddux coming to the mets, interesting picks though, i agree with alot of them

[nrmax88]

zonis i agree and disagree with your gold glove disection. I dont think chavez should have won it this year, nothing agaisnt EC at all , i think his reputation won it for him this year, but i think Joe Crede should have taken down the GG. 2b i couldnt agree with you more, mark ellis is probably the best second baseman in the game( fielding wise anyway) i watched alot of oakland games this year to try to get a better look at zito and must agree ellis was awesome. Once again people, not taking anything at all away from chavez, cuz hes awesome out there, i just felt like crede earned it this year, and chavez won it because of his rep.

[Bonatom]

Rayman,
Good Realistic Picks... (outside of Maddux to the Mets)

[SpecialFNK]

to J~Man.. you dont see the Blue Jays signing anyone? they are increasing their payroll yet again this offseason and have allready said they intend to spend. they are looking at attleast 1 SP plus they have a huge hole at SS.
i would be surprised alot if Lugo went to the Braves, and i dont even think they would be interested in him. ive heard of the possability of the Braves trading Giles, but i dont see them signing Lugo.
Lugo has allready said he wants the Jays to come after him and they have allready shown interest in him. if he doesnt go to Toronto then it would either be NY Mets or Red Sox.

[nrmax88]

yo special its ok lol its just some guys picks just like you or me, it isnt written in stone.

[J~Man]

Thanks 4 the FeedBack ... an people its just the Top 50 there r still a lot of other good free agents out there.. An don't 4get there r going 2 b a lot of trades.. I see the Blue-Jays being active in the trade market.. as well as other American League teams.. Like the White-Sox an Blue-Jays possabily working out a trade involing Veron Wells an 1 of the White-Sox many picthers.. I think dat would work out both ways cus the Sox would get there Cf an the Blue-Jays could possabile get Iguchi a Pitcher an Podsednik.. But dats just a random trade I made up but just sayin I see a lot of trades happening.

[nrmax88]

ive heard alot about vernon wells having made up his mind to go to texas when he hits free agency, and body know if there is any truth to this?

[SpecialFNK]

nrmax88, there is truth to that. that is a large reason as to why the Jays could trade Wells. Wells is from Texas plus he has stated that he would like to play with Michael Young some day.
ive also heard Wells say he is happy in Toronto and would like to get an extension. Wells and the Jays will talk extension this offseason, and if a deal cant be done look for the Jays to trade Wells now instead of going through the season and then getting very little or nothing for him.. thats my opinion.
im working on a top 50 free agent signing thing and maybe be ready in a day or so.

[redsox122988]

hi first time user here, i noticed somebody asked the question earlier but i never really saaw a response, so what i was wondering was: who is gunna be the red sox closer? sox already said that they are converting papelbon to a starter (which is prolly better for his shoulder anyway) and i think everyone knows that timlin is not even close to be cut out for the job, no offense meant, i mean the guy is great with loyalty to stay with the sox but he just doesnt have it anymore. Actually for that matter who do you see as long reliever or closer? cuz i have a feeling timlin is gunna be pitched into any trade they make. idk mayb im wrong, but im wondering who is gunna fill out the staff? im not worried about the starting pitching purely because that is their top priority and they will still have 3 strong starters, paps, schilling and beckett. What do you think of clement? should we ditch him? just wondering your take on all of it. thanks for a great website, well done

[pedroia2007]

JD Drew is a late and surprising addition to the top 50 free agent list. My prediction...

He ends up signing a 3 or 4 year deal with the Boston Red Sox. Sox have long coveted his on base skills which fit great into their offense philosophy. There are some who say Boston would essentialy be resigning Trot. Not entirely true as a comparison of the last 3 years show why Drew would be a great addition to the Fens. With this acquisition, it would open up the shopping of Wily Mo Pena

[pedroia2007]

redsox122988... The long relief/spot starter role could go to one of 3 pitchers who will likely compete for it in spring training (Snyder, Gabbard or Hansack). Timlin should have a lesser role next season, more as a middle relief guy than the later innings on a consistent basis. Furthermore I dont see him being traded at least before the season even starts.

My top choice to bring in to be the 8th inning or even closer is Justin Speier. The 33 year old vet spent his last 3 years in Toronto, his ERA never spiking over 3.50 in the tough hitting AL East division. He should be a target of Theo's. Also keep notice of "Todd Jones" retreads Joe Borowski & Danys Baez. An incentive laden offer to Eric Gagne is also very much possible.

Ok Clement just had shoulder surgery where they found major damage. Due to the serious surgery coupled with rehab, he's likely to miss the whole season. Id be shocked if he pitches at least 1 game with Boston next year. Yayy!! lol

[SpecialFNK]

ive taken the time to come up with my own list of where i see free agents signing.
since ive had over a week i have been able to benefit from any new information.
ive also added a bunch of other free agents because where they sign could be a factor in where the top 50 free agents sign. ive changed my mind a few times, but here is my list...

1. SP- Daisuke Matsuzaka - RED SOX
im seeing the Red Sox are the team to get Matsuzaka.
i was originally thinking Texas, but now it appears to be Boston.

2. LF- Alfonso Soriano - PHILLIES
Phillies want to spend big money on another superstar and they do.
i also think the Phillies will move Burrell to free up money for Soriano.

3. 3B- Aramis Ramirez - CUBS
i dont see Ramirez leaving the Cubs

4. SP- Barry Zito - METS
the Mets need a top of the rotation starter and will out bid everyone for Zito.

5. LF- Barry Bonds - GIANTS
he will stay in SF where he can attempt to break the HR record.
going to the AL could allow him to DH and play more often, but i dont see that happening.
there appears to be little interest anywhere for Bonds.
there will be alot of negative press about Bonds and he will get upset/frustrated and then complain about how the whole world is against him and how its not fair, boo hoo Barry. then to make himself look better in the public eye he will say how much the fans in SF mean to him and then resign with the Giants.

6. SP- Jason Schmidt - YANKEES
the Yankees will see Schmidt as someone who can come in and be a dominant starter and in order to get him they sign to a 4 year contract. IMO this is yet another stupid move by the Yankees in locking up a player past his prime to a long term contract. Schmidt will be nothing more than an average/above average starter for the Yankees, and like many other players they have he will be unmovable because of his contract.

7. SP- Roger Clemens - ASTROS
will return to Houston for another year in a very similar way to this past season.
with money not a need to Clemens he will return at a discount if Houston agrees to spend money on other players to make a run at the playoffs.
OTHER POSSIBILITY- i could also see Clemens returning to the Yankees and possibly convincing Pettitte to come along aswell. if that happens the Yankees will not sign the other 2 new SP i have mentioned for them.

8. LF- Carlos Lee - ASTROS
done deal, Houston showers him with cash.

9. CF- Gary Matthews Jr. - CUBS
Chicago wants him to play CF.

10. SP- Tom Glavine - METS
returns for another year on the Mets.

11. SP- Vicente Padilla - PIRATES
Pittsburgh will be looking for a good starting pitcher but will miss out on the top tier guys and then sign Padilla.

12. DH- Frank Thomas - A's
returns to Oakland as DH.

13. 2B- Ray Durham - CUBS
Chicago can use him at 2B.
i was originally thinking Boston, but i think the Red Sox will go with someone cheaper.

14. CF- Jim Edmonds - CARDINALS

15. RF- Jose Guillen - BRAVES
Atlanta could use a power hitting OF.

16. 3B- Akinori Iwamura - PHILLIES
signs with Philadelphia to play 3B.

17. SP- Mike Mussina - YANKEES
returns to the Yankees

18. SP- Greg Maddux - DODGERS
returns for another season with the Dodgers.

19. SS- Julio Lugo - RED SOX
the Red Sox will out bid the Blue Jays for SS Lugo.

20. SP- Andy Pettitte - ASTROS
thinks about retiring, but returns to Houston after talking to Clemens about making another run at a playoff shot.

21. DH- Moises Alou - ORIOLES
i see him signing with Baltimore where he can DH and see some time in LF.

22. 2B- Adam Kennedy - CARDINALS
could also go to Toronto if the Blue Jays have interest in moving Aaron Hill back to SS, but i dont see that happening. the Jays did have interest in Kennedy durung the season, but i see Kennedy going to St.Louis.

23. SP- Gil Meche - BLUE JAYS
Jays will have money to spend and i have seen numerous reports about being interested in Meche.

24. SP- Kei Igawa - MARINERS
wants to play on the west coast and the Mariners need starting pitchin, plus he fits in well with current japanese players.

25. LF- David Dellucci - BLUE JAYS
i could see Dellucci going to Toronto to split time in LF with Reed Johnson aswell as play some at DH. wherever Dellucci goes he will not play much vs LH pitching.

26. SP- Ted Lilly - GIANTS
he wants to return to the west coast and the Giants need a starter.

27. SP- Jeff Weaver - CARDINALS
will remain with the Cardinals

28. SP- Jeff Suppan - YANKEES
ive seen that the Yankees have interest in Suppan.
IMO the Yankees will out bid everyone for Suppan because of what he did in the playoffs, and like other pitchers the Yankees have signed (Pavano/Wright) Suppan will be a bust.

29. DH- Luis Gonzalez - CARDINALS
im seeing Gonzalez maybe headed to St.Louis.

30. CF- Juan Pierre - WHITE SOX
Chicago is looking for Cf and sign Pierre instead over Dave Roberts.

31. 1B- Nomar Garciaparra - ANGELS
signs on with Los Angeles Angels where he can play 1B, 3B, or DH.

32. LF- Frank Catalanotto - A'S
Oakland type player who has a high OBP

33. CF- Dave Roberts - BREWERS
ive seen that Milwaukee is looking for a CF instead of playing who they have and that they are interested in Roberts.

34. SP- Woody Williams - CARDINALS
could go to Houston, but with both Clemens and Pettitte returning to Houston Williams will return to an old team in the Cardinals.

35. RF- Trot Nixon - MARINERS
i dont see Nixon getting many offers and he goes into late January before taking an incentive contract. ill take a shot and say Seattle.
he wont be back in Boston, since the Red Sox have both Pena and Hinske to play RF.

36. CF- Kenny Lofton - ROCKIES
i think Colorado will miss out on the players they want for CF (Pierre/Roberts) and instead will sign Lofton.

37. SP- Adam Eaton - NATIONALS
Washington could use a top pitcher but i think they will miss out on the top tier name guys and instead sign Eaton.

38. SP- Randy Wolf - CUBS
the Cubs need some pitching and Wolf could be a steal.

39. SP- Mark Mulder - A's
returns to Oakland

40. RP- Kerry Wood - CUBS
resigns with the Cubs in an incentive deal with salary increases based on saves. the Cubs then trade Dempster with the thought of having Howry incase Wood doesnt work.

41. RP- Eric Gagne - RED SOX
i see Boston taking a shot at Gagne with an incentive contract to be their closer.

42. 2B- Jose Valentin - REDS
the Reds could use someone at SS, but there arnt many options for SS so they move Phillips to SS and sign Valentin to play 2B.

43. IN- Rich Aurilia - GIANTS
returns to San Fransisco where he can play 3B.

44. 2B/3B- Mark DeRosa - GIANTS
San Fransisco can use him at 2B, and even other positions.

45. RP- Joe Borowski - ???
i dont have a team listed for Borowski because i dont know where he would go.
i think he will take more money from a team to pitch in a set up role rather than taking less money from a team looking for a closer.

46. 3B- Aubrey Huff - PADRES
can play either 3B or the OF for San Diego

47. 1B- Craig Wilson - ORIOLES
can play 1B, DH, or the OF depending on where Gibbons plays.

48. DH- Ryan Klesko - TIGERS
can see time at DH, LF, and 1B with the Tigers

49. 1B- Kevin Millar - DODGERS
Millar wont sign anywhere until into January because there wont be much interest in him. he will then sign with LA Dodgers where he can play some 1B and OF.

50. SP- Miguel Batista - PHILLIES
ive seen that Philadelphia is interested in Batista

newly added..
OF- J.D. Drew - RANGERS
im thinking either Texas or Boston. which ever team loses out on the Matsuzaka bidding could throw that money at Drew.
since it looks like Boston will get Matsuzaka ill put Drew in Texas.

other free agents__________________________________________________

SS- Alex Gonzalez - BLUE JAYS
i could see the Blue Jays going after Gonzalez.

1B- Shea Hillenbrand - TWINS
i think his numbers in SF will bring down his price and make him affordable for Minnestoa where he can see some time at both 1B and 3B, but see a majority of the time at DH.

CL- Eddie Guardado - GIANTS
will be signed to be the closer in San Fransisco

SS- Craig Counsell - ???
Counsell could sign somewhere to help out at either SS or 2B, but right now i have no pick.

DH- Mike Piazza - RANGERS
can play at DH aswell as see time at catcher

SP- Orlando Hernadez - NATIONALS
Washington could use another starting pitcher and they sign Hernandez.

lf- Cliff Floyd - INDIANS
can sign with Cleveland to play LF

CA- Greg Zaun - PHILLIES
Philadelphia could use a catcher and will sign Zaun.
ive seen Kansas City mentioned, but i dont see that happening.

CA- Benji Molina - ROCKIES
looks like Colorado could use a catcher.
i think Molina will still be available into Jaunuary much like before and will sign a 1 year deal plus an option to play for Colorado.

SP- Tony Armas - TWINS
i could see him being a low cost signing by the Twins

RP- Danys Baez - INDIANS
returns to Clevland to compete for the closers role

CA- Rod Barajas - RED SOX
ive seen his name mentioned with the Red Sox.

2B- Ronnie Belliard - GIANTS
the Red Sox can sign Belliard to play 2B.

1B- Sean Casey - YANKEES
this is a total guess but i think it makes sence.
the Yankees can move Giambi to DH full time and play Casey at 1B where he can help alot defensively. this would be a smart move by the Yankees.

1B- Darin Erstad - ???
could sign somewhere to play either 1B or CF, but i dont have a team for him right now, but im seeing maybe the Rockies?

3B- Pedro Feliz - BREWERS
ive seen that the Brewers will play Bill Hall in LF and im guessing they will need someone else at 3B other than Corey Koskie. they can sign Feliz to split time with Koskie aswell as see time at other positions.

CF- Steve Finley - DODGERS
Finely can play CF for the LA Dodgers.

3B- Wes Helms - REDS
Helms can help out at both 1B and 3B. maybe Cincinnati?

CA- Mike Lieberthal - YANKEES
looks to sign on with a top tier team as a backup, lets say the Yankees.

2B- Mark Loretta - METS
apparently the Mets are high on Loretta to play 2B.

SP- Jason Marquis - CUBS
i could see him signing with the Cubs.

1B- Phil Nevin - DEVIL RAYS
i dont know where to put Nevin so ill give him to Tampa Bay where he can battle for 1B or backup whoever plays 1B.
i could also see him still being available into the spring and then signing with a team that doesnt get the 1B they had been looking for.. maybe SF if they dont get 1B?

SP- Tomo Ohka - NATIONALS
signs to play again with Washington.
played well for Washington in 2005.

RF- Jay Payton - TEXAS
dont know where to put Payton.
he can play any of the OF positions and could be usefull in Texas along with Drew to replace Lee and Matthews.

SP- Brad Radke - TWINS
if he returns he resigns with Minnesota

SP- Mark Redman - ROYALS
apparently willing to resign with Kansas City

3B- Scott Spiezio - ANGELS
Spiezio can return to the LA Angels and play multiple positions.

SP- Steve Trachsel - PADRES
not sure where Traschel goes, but maybe somewhere like San Diego would be good.

DH- Preston Wilson - MARLINS
returns to a former team in the Marlins.

SP- David Wells - PADRES
if he returns it will be with San Diego

hopefully people will see this and let me know what they think because i would like to get some feedback. so drop some thouhts

[Brian]

There is no way the Cubs keep Aramis Ramirez and sign Gary Matthews Jr and Kei Igawa. This is the same team who every year is "supposed" to sign these big name free agents and never does. Ramire is gone, he hit free agency and will most likely end up with the Angels. Matthews Jr seems to be headed to San Francisco from numerous reports. I could see JD Drew as a last minute option for the Cubs after Ramirez, Lee, Soriano, Matthews and Pierre all sign elsewhere.

[MT]

Explain to me how Justin Speier doesn't make the top 50 free agents?

[RotoAuthority]

I have written elsewhere that he was an oversight and should be there. I think it's safe to say he's a top 50 guy.

[pedroia2007]

1) **Daisuke Matsuzaka- Boston Red Sox
2) Alfonso Soriano- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3) **Aramis Ramirez- Chicago Cubs
4) Barry Zito- San Diego Padres
5) Barry Bonds- San Francicso Giants
6) Jason Schmidt- New York Yankees
7) Roger Clemens- Houston Astros or retirement
8) Carlos Lee- Houston Astros
9) Gary Matthews, Jr- San Francisco Giants
10) Tom Glavine- New York Mets
11) Vicente Padilla- Seattle Mariners
12) Frank Thomas- Oakland Athletics
13) Ray Durham- San Francisco Giants
14) **Jim Edmonds- St. Louis Cardinals
15) Jose Guillen- San Diego Padres
16) Akinori Iwamura- Boston Red Sox
17) Mike Mussina- New York Yankees
18) Greg Maddux- Los Angeles Dodgers
19) Julio Lugo- Boston Red Sox
20) Andy Pettite- Houston Astros or retirement
21) Moises Alou- Cleveland Indians
22) Adam Kennedy- St. Louis Cardinals
23) Gil Meche- Toronto Blue Jays
24) Kei Igawa- Chicago Cubs
25) David Dellucci- St. Louis Cardinals
26) Ted Lilly- San Francisco Giants
27) Jeff Weaver- St. Louis Cardinals
28) Jeff Suppan- New York Mets
29) Luis Gonzalez- Los Angeles Dodgers
30) Juan Pierre- Chicago White Sox
31) Nomar Garciappara- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
32) Frank Catalanotto- Texas Rangers
33) Dave Roberts- Chicago Cubs
34) Woody Williams- Houston Astros
35) Trot Nixon- Washington Nationals
36) Kenny Lofton- Texas Rangers
37) Adam Eaton- Texas Rangers
38) Randy Wolf- Minnesota Twins
39) Mark Mulder- Baltimore Orioles
40) **Kerry Wood- Chicago Cubs
41) Eric Gagne- Cleveland Indians
42) **Jose Valentin- New York Mets
43) Rich Aurilia- Toronto Blue Jays
44) Mark DeRosa- Philladelphia Phillies
45) Joe Borowski- Los Angeles Dodgers
46) Aubrey Huff- Houston Astros
47) Craig Wilson- Toronto Blue Jays
48) Ryan Klesko- Detroit Tigers
49) Kevin Millar- Baltimore Orioles
50) Miguel Batista- Colorado Rockies

--
Honorable Mention:
Justin Speier- Boston Red Sox
Mark Loretta- New York Mets

[pedroia2007]

Oh forgot to mention JD Drew. Nick Carfardo of the Boston Globe is reporting that Theo told reporters yesterday that he made an offer to a free agent. Speculation is that it was an immidate call to JD Drew on the first day free agents can talk to other teams

[Ganman]

Alou,Loretta,Zito Eaton and Baez sign with NYM!

[Truecubsfan]

There is a rumor going around about a deal involving the RedSox sending Coco crisp to the Cubs for Izturis, Ohman/Cotts and a prospect. Hvae you heard anything about this?

[cubs4life]

I haven't heard anything about this rumor, but i think we should go after gary matthews jr. and keep j jones in the outfield.

[RedsNSox]

You're about 9 for 25 so far. Not too bad.

[Tommy]

Man Your PREDICTIONS SUCKED!

[ArodSucksAtLife]

Outside of anticipating the cubbies attempting to bury every single FA in a pile of money, not bad...

[Tim Dierkes]

I think I did alright.