Olney On The Center Fielder Market

The upcoming offseason will feature roughly nine viable free agent center fielder options (2008 age in parentheses):

Ichiro Suzuki (34)
Andruw Jones (31)
Torii Hunter (32)
Eric Byrnes (32)
Corey Patterson (28)
Milton Bradley (30)
Aaron Rowand (30)
Mike Cameron (35)
Kenny Lofton (41)

There's the Big Three, then second tier options with various flaws (not that the Big Three are without flaws).  Of the second tier, Rowand and Byrnes have seen their stock rise this season.

Interestingly, Buster Olney believes that Cameron will draw heavy bidding.  Olney sees Cameron landing in Atlanta; Ken Rosenthal reached the same conclusion back in April.  I know Cameron is seen as the default CF bargain, the guy with a solid all-around game who will slip under the radar.  However, we know Cameron wants three years.  Assuming he doesn't repeat his April performance, $30MM over 2008-2010 would be a reasonable prediction.  Not sure that's going to end well.

Olney also predicts Torii Hunter will land in Texas; we've discussed that here before and it seems reasonable.  The remaining question: where do Ichiro and Andruw end up?

Olney sees Ichiro with the White Sox.  I like the match.  Fits their style, sparks fan interest.  Do I think it'd be a smart signing?  No.  But I can see it happening.  One would almost rather prefer Darin Erstad and his .685 OPS, as at least that comes cheap.

Buster's prediction for Andruw is the Mariners.  However, the Ms do have a fine prospect for the position in 21 year-old Adam Jones.  Despite his age Jones is responding to the challenge of Triple A with a .302/.388/.503 line.  I know the Mariners make some bad decisions but even they have to let the kid play.  This could be the next Carlos Beltran or Vernon Wells (both land within Jones' top ten comparables).   

Olney eliminates the Mets, Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, and Cubs from next year's CF suitors.  Yet there should still be plenty of teams looking to fill the position.  The Orioles will be looking for a replacement for Patterson and might spend some money.  I have no idea what the Twins will do if Hunter walks.  Maybe the Marlins will finally pony up some cash and get a center fielder.  The Phillies and Padres could have vacancies if their current guys leave.  The Brewers could shift Bill Hall to right.  The Pirates could get in the game.  The Giants have Dave Roberts and Fred Lewis, but could make a play for Ichiro nonetheless.   

It'll be fun to see where all these center fielders end up once the dust settles.  I do agree with Olney in that there may be a bargain or two.

Comments

[boomshwa12]

i was just thinking while watching the braves pregame, and with kyle davies starting to pitch well would they still want to package him for a centerfielder? he rounds out a pretty good rotation for the braves, they probably move salty to left, and go sign byrnes or rowand to play center. that seems a lot more logical to me than getting rocco baldelli or even resigning andruw. it's not like loosing andruw would be a crushing blow to the team anyway

[boomshwa12]

of course i say that and he gets off to a crappy start in this game....

[tmar]

I don't see how the DBacks don't make the list of non-suitors. We've got Chris Young playing there now and Justin Upton on the way. Combine that with a low overall salary budget and there is no way they go after a CF this offseason.

[bigbaddbobbyjenks]

i have been saying and hoping this the whole season about ichiro and the sox. the only problem that might occur is either his asking price or his age. but he seems like a guy that stays healthy and can play late into his career. with all the things he can bring to the sox in 1 player that they desparetly need: CF defense, CF arm, leadoff man, speed, OBP, and most important, someone to talk to iguchi in the clubhouse and make him resign after this yr. it does make perfect sense. hopefully his desire to go to a contender will not make his asking price thru the roof.

[StLknows]

I think the cards are paying edmonds 8 this year and 11 next. With all those options out there the cards will look stupid for paying edmonds 11 mil while better players go for less or equal.

I know we just needed a stopgap for Rasmus, but why couldn't he just move to a corner position for a year or two before maning CF. I know his D would be better than both Duncan and "aw shucks" Encarnacion.

Duncan could hit 30+ homers this year. I am still up for trading him. His D out there in LF is atrocious, but more importantly I have already seen it cost us some runs and he is a non factor late in games because he is always taken out for a real OF.

I'm sure only cards fans will find this post interesting

[RotoAuthority]

The D'Backs and plenty of other teams (Tribe for instance) definitely make the list of non-suitors. Olney was just listing the major markets with no need for a CF.

[beaminack]

Jones- Did any one else see Jason Stark on Mike and Mike i think it may have been Tuesday. He basically called Jones the most overrated CF in the game. Saying his range had diminished and he wasn't getting to as many balls hit to the outfield. This said i could see a new team shifting him to another position. With Abreu struggling with the yankee's i doubt they pick up his option for 08. could Jones go to the Bronx and play right field? They do have Melky and going cheaper couldn't hurt the Yank's in the long run. Just an idea

Ichiro- I hope the
mariners pony up the cash and keep the guy around. The team becomes way more boring to watch without him around. I do want to see the guy win i love the way he plays the game. The comment about wanting to switch to pitching was just great.

Hunter- Texas could use the guy. I just think they are a few years off with the pitching staff the way it is right now. I guess im playing wait and see with this one. I think he wants to win it all.

[tmar]

"The D'Backs and plenty of other teams (Tribe for instance) definitely make the list of non-suitors. Olney was just listing the major markets with no need for a CF."

Oh, I get it, just a list of the teams that could afford a major CF acquisition. I guess my DBacks are out of that list automatically (for the next few years anyway).

[nrmax88]

Just the thought of Johnny Damon playing center with Andruw Jones in right field makes me laugh. Why would they put him in right when Damon cant handle center? The day Andruw moves to right field so Damon can stay in center will be a very strange day indeed. Jason Stark is an idiot. Andruw is the man.

[Steven J Berke]

Neither you nor Olney seem to have included the Nationals either way. It may be because you all assume that since the Nats did not resign Soriano or sign a free-agent pitcher, they just aren't going to sign free agents, at least not this year.

However, Barry Svrluga, the Nats beatman for the Washington Post, said he has been told that the Nats are going to look to boost their payroll to about $70 million next year. Their payroll right now is about $38 million, and would be about $43 million next year if they did nothing, due to arbitration and contracts. So if Svrluga has the right info (and his word is gospel for Nats fans), they would have to sign a free agent, and likely more than one. And what better year to look for a free-agent center fielder? The Nats can certainly show the money if they are inclined; the question is whether they can get anyone to follow it.

[bobo]

The thing about Ichiro is he's just not that valuable a baseball player, but he has perhaps the most intangibles in the game. Not the hokey "great leader" or whatever, but things that actually make a team money - the Japanese presence and the increase in attendance. This is a lot harder to quantify - as we know nobody has ever come up with an accepted estimate for the "Japan effect", and we can't say for sure just how much he increases attendance.

As a CF, BP has him worth just $30M for the next 4 years (08-11). I'm sure he's going to get $60M/5 at a minimum, and probably $15M a year. Are the intangibles worth $8+ million a year? I doubt it. He's going to end up being a pretty bad signing.

I also think this is going to end up being Hunter's career year offensively, and his new team is going to be disappointed. Jones? I don't know about his defense but he just cannot remain this bad at the plate. He's the youngest of the big 3 and may well end up being the best bargain.

But I agree - if he ends up with miserable offensive numbers a 1 year, $12M contract is maybe more likely than a long term deal.

Hey, speaking of CF, whatever happened to Jerry Owens in Chicago? He's hitting well and has a great BB/K rate. Why isn't he getting a chance?

[jfish26101]

Braves can't afford to sign Cameron (or any big name FA for that matter) in my opinion with their current salary restraints. Sure AJ is leaving as well as Wickman more then likely but Smoltz and Hudson both are getting raises and I believe we were 5 mill over our cap when the season started anyhow. If Liberty doesn’t increase the Braves cap then JS will be forced to go with a much cheaper option or do something drastic. With arbitration increases, I just don’t see much of a window for such a purchase.

Perhaps JS can come up with a package and work some magic to get something done to our rotation before the deadline. If that happened, our offense can afford a drop in production and when AJ departs it wont be as bad. Even with our current slump and pitching woes, we are only 4.5 games out of 1st with what AJ has giving the team to this point (which isn’t much more than good defense). Promoting a guy like Blanco or Jones could work if we can solidify our rotation. Not to mention McCann, Salty, KJ and Francoeur will only get better and we should still have Renteria and Chipper around. We have a fairly high draft pick this year at 14 and another at 33; with the comp picks we get for AJ we can add some much needed depth to our farm system which is becoming to look a bit bleak to me.

I’m not sure the Braves should even attempt to sign any of these FA with the current situation they find themselves in. I would try to use our prospects to bolster the staff as soon as possible, promote from within next season and try to retool the farm through the draft the next couple of years.

[jfish26101]

Oh if they do go after someone, I'd vote for Byrnes. He is a solid player and plays hard. I think he would fit in well with our club and add some much needed excitement to a team that is normally very dull. If they kept Salty and added a character like Byrnes, I think it could really create some excitement on the field. Everyone else on that list will either be too expensive for the Braves to take realistic or are pretty big gambles giving their age or attitudes.

[bravesbeast]

very good post jfish, i agree wholeheartedly with everything you said, except that I think we could afford a center field bargain, and I think that the best bargins would be eric byrnes, my personal chance if we were to sign a centerfielder, or corey patterson, whom i think we could get for cheap. I believe the terry pendleton could greatly assist patterson at the plate, and I also think that patterson is a underrated fielder. In other words, I think patterson has many more postives, or very easy to correct negatives than people give him credit for. With the depth of CF free agents available next year, I do support the idea that if we trade some talent, it goes for a young starter, it just makes sense to solidify the pitching staff when our offense can still be strong even without andruw.
So my recommendation echos yours, build the farm system back up, use salty + to grab a starter, but also go after a great bargain if one is available.

[bigbaddbobbyjenks]

great question bobo. ownes has been very impressive, and i think he has the top of the order qualities about him. i wouldnt mind seeing him in the sox future plans, but sweeney and anderson are talked of as having way higher ceilings than owens, so he doesnt get brought up much. plus, if you have ownens in LF or CF, you NEED to fill the other 2 OF positions with power hitters. if dye doesn't come back, then thats pretty tough to forsee. both anderson and sweeney have decent power output and can develop into more potent power hitters, but its hard to put them in the lineup and let them grow when you're trying to win now. it's a hell of a pinch those younger guys are in (B.A, Sweeney, and Ownes). i wouldnt mind seeing ownens come in now for a little bit to see how he does in the majors, since pablo ozuna just tore/broke somethin in his foot today and is out probably til august/sept. it'll be interesting to see if the rookie platoon will work in LF or if an acquisition by KW is made

[achilles17]

Nobody even mentioning the Yankees as a possibility for Ichiro? You know they're going to spend big next season unless they pull off a miracle comeback, and Abreu's option is looking like a total joke. Assuming they let him go, who's to say they don't opt for Ichiro in right field? Obviously he would be better in center, but he knows how to play right, while Damon may not (he doesn't have the arm for it anyway).

[jfish26101]

"So my recommendation echos yours, build the farm system back up, use salty + to grab a starter, but also go after a great bargain if one is available."

Well I have been pretty much for dealing Salty but am starting to lean towards against it. He is pretty charismatic and has a lot of maturity at the plate for this point in his career. He is athletic enough to play multiple positions (I think he could man any corner spot on the field) and could possibly be an impact player as early as next year. Brandon Jones has been solid this season. Add a couple of pitchers to him and go after at least a number 3 if not a 2. Get Salty as many ABs as you can this season and give him a starting spot next year and hope he can help fill in for AJ’s bat. Promote Blanco for his defense alone and bat him 8th and hope the rest of the offense can carry the load. Lillibridge who played CF in college is another option but I think Blanco would do ok if we didn’t concern ourselves to much with his offense or lack of.

I agree on Byrnes but am pretty against Patterson. I saw enough Cub games on WGN to pretty much write Patterson off. I just don’t think I’d give him any money what so ever. It would have to be a deal based heavily on incentives. Personally, I’d just forget them all unless JS gets some extra money and can land Byrnes.

[jskohl]

Out here in Los Angeles, I hear so many positive things said about Dodger GM Ned Colletti. But I'll never understand why he jumped the gun and signed Juan Pierre to a five year deal. Had he waited one more season, he could have killed two birds with one stone by signing a top notch center fielder and power bat that the Dodgers deperately need. Now the Dodgers are still without a big bat and Juan Pierre combo'd with Luis Gonzalez in the outfield are very weak defensively.

[J.L.]

Agreed. The Dodgers signed Pierre because they said they lacked a true CF--- I don't see how Pierre even fits that description given his defense. Not to mention the fact that Kemp's defense in CF was prematurely panned. Would have been far better off resigning Lofton, who was great, for another year and either getting one of the big free agents or letting Kemp rome CF in '08.

I like Byrnes offensively but for anyone who hasn't watched him his defense is entertaining at best. He has said he has a strong desire to go to the Giants but I suppose thats impossible given the Roberts deal, unless he were to move.

[tmar]

If you look at Byrnes splits he tends to play really well in the first half and not so much in the last part of the season. That said he's been a solid contributor and will likely be a good, inexpensive option in CF.

[A2000]

Yankees should wait for Brett Gardner to mature to the major league level. He was in spring training this past year and did not do much, but in the minors and college he has been a great leadoff CF. Yanks save money...

[RotoAuthority]

Ichiro to the Yanks makes plenty of sense, guess I just blanked on that one.

[DentalPlan]

Can't wait to see what sort of magic Boras will use to get Patterson a decent contract. He's hitting horribly.

[Baseballfan79]

As much as I would love a defensive CF like Torri Hunter out there in CF for the Marlins. But the same prie there + the money that Miggy is making right now would be needed to pay for Cabrera. (most likely around 18-25 million a year).

I would rather spend the money on Miguel Cabrera instead of Torri Hunter anyday of the week.

Byrnes would be a good fit for florida, or else picking up one of the cheaper speedy type CF.

[MetFan33]

Roto, would you completely rule the Mets out of the FA OF market as a whole this off season? With the influx of OF talent they have coming through I would be stupid to disagree, but a possible Reyes-Ichiro 1-2 punch at the top of that lineup to replace somewhat of an aging LoDuca wouldn't seem like that bad of a idea if they could get him for 3 years guaranteed, wouldn't be that big of a raise over say Shawn Green currently. Minaya/Randolph have shown that they don't really want to play prospects sporadically at the ML level and although I think Gomez or Milledge could be at atleast average at worst options in 08, I could see him going for a older guy for year or two more.

Then again, I'm sure he will command larger deals so it probably is just wishful thinking on my part.

[GoBoSox420]

Why would ichiro sign a 3 year contract?

He will have much better offers elsewhere.

[Aduncaroo]

The mets are not going after one of the big 3 center fielders....they are going after pitching. If they did, they are idiots.

I really believe that the Braves are going to take a hard look at Patterson. He would probably sign for a very good discount to play for his hometown team...and its not like they hate a guy like him...he is Francour with speed....a little less power, both stike out too much. Still...he is a good guy to have hitting near the bottom of the order...and can really run. Anyway, they may not do it, but I think that JS is going to at least take a look and see how cheap he can get him.

[DentalPlan]

Wow, are you full of it with Corey Patterson. He's "Francouer with more speed." So what if he can run, look at how often he gets on base, that's what Willie Harris and Nook Logan are for.

Don't give the hard sell on Patterson.

[Aduncaroo]

I said more speed and less power...don't leave stuff out because it makes your point actually sound good....

[DentalPlan]

Even with that, it's a horrid comparison.

[Aduncaroo]

Actually, Patterson had a better OBP than Francouer did last year....Francouer was UNDER .300!!!!

I'm not saying its the greatest comparison in the world....the point I was making is that Patterson will give you a not so good OBP...but good D, less power than Francouer but much more speed. I did check on Patterson's stats this year though...they are horrendous. I hadn't seen them in awhile. Still, Patterson isn't far from Mike Cameron, and I'm not so sure that I'd pay 10 mil per year for 3 years....