White Sox Trade Winds

Tons of articles today about the plans of Kenny Williams and the Chicago White Sox.

Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune speaks of a rumor involving both Mark Buehrle and Jermaine Dye going to the Mets for prospects.  This one may have originated on ESPN.  Or maybe it's a contortion of Saturday's Newark Star-Ledger rumor.  When you see a rumor like that, a red flag should go off.  Why would Williams trade both in a package deal?  Maximum value is extracted with separate deals. 

Both van Dyck and Buehrle himself give much credence to this particular trade talk.  Buehrle wants to stay, but chances are slim because he's looking for a five-year contract.  He deserves it, but it's not the White Sox way.  Five years, $70MM sounds appropriate.  Poor guy's got a kid coming soon; I'm sure he'd rather not go through this.

Van Dyck also reports that GMs have been "circling Williams like vultures."  At least publicly, Williams is saying that he has not yet decided whether to wave the white flag on the 2007 season.  The Sox are 10.5 games out in the AL Central and 9.5 games out of the wild card.  It would take a miracle.  Williams, Ozzie Guillen, and Paul Konerko met yesterday to discuss the current club and came up empty on fresh ideas.  If Scott Podsednik and Darin Erstad don't spark the lineup when they return later this month, the Sox will likely officially give up.

Williams has more to offer than his future free agents (Buehrle, Dye, and Tadahito Iguchi.)  He's also receiving interest in some of his relievers.  Perhaps Mike MacDougal or Matt Thornton could be sent packing. 

Comments

[beauhoopman]

Roto-
I've heard a number of rumors about a Dye for Billingsley swap, straight up. If you ask me, those rumors are exactly why the Griffey trade is absurd. Dye has looked horrendous this year, and Billingsley has to be considered a substantially better option (Cubs bias aside) than Sean Marshall. And lets not pretend that Jacque Jones adds anything to the deal here either. Thoughts?

[beauhoopman]

Also, I figure the odds are 60% that the Buerhle for Milledge + B prospect is the final deal. I know Mets fans think that Milledge alone is enough, but there are going to be a lot of teams offering comparable prospects, I have to imaging the ante will rise as Williams makes his position clear.

[Adrian]

Buehrle's riding the sentimental Sox fan tide though. He's the personification of Sox fans- gritty, quick, gets the job done, and until last winter, didn't complain. But it's quite understandable, Buehrle wants to get two contracts in before he retires.

As much as I like Ers and Pods, getting a guy like Rowand and shipping out MacDougal + B prospect may be better for both teams (the Phils have Bourne and Victorino).

i don't understand what all the fuss is for Miledge, he really didn't dazzle when he broke into the leauge.

it would be gnarly for the Sox to pry apart Billingsly AND Lonely(if he can transition to the OF) for Buehrle/Dye and a B prospect.

[RotoAuthority]

Well, we can't use rumors as the measuring stick. We have to use actual trades, as one of the commenters in the Griffey post did. I think Billingsley would be an amazing return for Dye, and Ned Colletti should be canned if he does it. Billingsley is likely entering the rotation, and they may need him right now anyway.

Billingsley is better than Sean Marshall, but we are comparing two completely different rumors here.

[ae]

there's no way the Phils trade Rowand for 2.25 WHIP MacDougal and a "B prospect." aside from the fact that the trade is laughably imbalanced, Bourn isn't ready for a starting role - and has no power anyway - and Victorino is *already* starting.

[beauhoopman]

Good point. And I think, to be fair here, the Dodgers have such a wealth of minor league talent, Billingsley may be more expendable than he would be in some other systems.

[Blutarski]

Firstly, it would be idiocy for the Sox to trade for Rowand when they can sign him as a free agent after the season.

Secondly, I like Kenny's posturing - yeah, he's fine getting draft picks for these guys. Sure.

Billingsley for Dye would be a steal. I would love it. Buehrle should bring a real nice package as he's the biggest difference maker of this trade deadline. However, I would rather the Sox give him 5/$70 if that would get it done.

I'm not sure that the return for a reliever that the Sox still want for next year would be worth it. I can't really see any of them getting traded especially since Jenks is the only one that's been any good.

[NYs Maine Man]

I think the Mets' landing Buehrle would be a nice pick-up. El Duque's health is always a question, so it would solidify a very strong rotation, not mentioning if/when Pedro returns in August.

I know ESPN had a rumor of Buehrle & Dye to the Mets, that's be a huge score for Omar! IF Alou ever came back, Green/Alou could be a nice lefty-righty platoon in LF.

[J.L.]

Well considering Schmidt looks done for the year (maybe for his career) I don't think you'll see Billinsgley going to any team. You can't really say he's 'expendable' because its not like the Dodgers have a bunch of major league ready pitchers sitting around in the minors waiting for a chance.

[John Peterson]

Milledge has had like 200 major league at bats, and that as the youngest player in the league. I think he can be excused if he "didn't dazzle."

I could see the Buerhle trade happening with the Mets, but I don't think it's a good idea, especially with Pedro looking like he'll make a strong recovery.

Funny thought: Posednik and Erstad "sparking" the Sox offense. Good luck with that, Kenny Williams.

[Teetz]

Do you really thing 5/70 Mil is all Buehrle will get? That sounds good right now, but I think he'll garner a considerable amount more on the open market. What's stopping Buehrle's agent from comparing Zito to Buehrle when team's come calling?

[statnut]

As a Mets fan, Dye holds more interest than Buerhle. I doubt there's any chance of the Mets being able to re-sign Buerhle, and I think he's maybe a #3/4 starter. Considering that Pedro should return around the same time, I cant see where this would be a big help.
Dye on the other hand, could be an asset. He could hit 6th, providing better protection for Delgado(since it seems he's going to hit #5) than Green.

Of course, I think Iguchi might be the biggest help of all to the Mets. I could see Iguchi hitting 2nd, allowing the Mets to move LoDuca to the 7th spot.

[DentalPlan]

Dye doesn't impress me too much, maybe it's because I always remember the Oakland Dye instead of the White Sox/KC Dye. He's like a guy who crossed you once and you never forget. If the Mets and the Dodgers need Jermaine Dye that badly they must be in significantly more trouble than I thought.

I mean, what's the story? Why is Dye's trade value like he's having the season he had last year? His career OPS is .820 for crying out loud, what is with people? The Mets have lacked OBP lately, Dye's at .291. And the Dodgers, Dye is going to give them exactly what they need?

I don't think people are thinking straight here. Why would you give a better return for Jermaine Dye than anyone was willing to give for Soriano last year? Soriano's overrated, but he's a pretty good bet for 30 HR, 20 steals a year. And the offers for Soriano were weak, I think Bowden would've traded him for Billingsley straight up.

I don't think Ned Coletti is the mastermind people think he is. He inherited a fabulous farm system and made some weird trades (Danys Baez, the pitcher they got from the Mets who was with the D-Rays for a while), etc.

[J.L.]

No one thinks Ned is a mastermind---far from it. He's trying to get Dye (or someone like that) on the cheap: read, not for more than one good prospect. It doesn't sound like he's looking to extend anyone. Where would Dye play in the Dodgers outfield anyways? Do the White Sox want Ethier? I doubt it.

[DentalPlan]

Is it really "on the cheap" though? Well, I guess Billinglsey's value has dropped since he was the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. Moving to the bullpen and not getting starts ahead of Brett Tomko will do that I suppose.