Heyman On Santana

I could maybe see Hughes and Melky for Santana, but no way Kennedy and Melky gets it done. Kennedy had a few nice starts, but he wasnt that good of a prospect to begin with.

@WHITESOX:

Kennedy was a GREAT prospect in terms of minor league numbers. His K/9 rates were a tick below Hughes and his ERA never climbed above 2.5 I believe.

His style (due to velocity) issues doesn't translate as well to the majors though.

If Melky/Kennedy/someone not named Jackson, Tabata, Joba, Hughes gets it done, Cashman should do it. Fast.

Am I missing something on Melky? He's got decent plate discipline and a little power, but that can be said of several guys. He hasn't been close to an 800 OPS.

Is the pricetag for Santana really that low? I don't understand why he's garnering so much less than Miguel Cabrera.

I get the feeling the Yankees would have to give up another bat - I could see Tabata going the other way, perhaps Jackson although between the two it's close which they should hold on to. Considering the Yankees would need a center fielder, I think they should hold on to Jackson, as Tabata projects as more of a corner outfielder. Regardless, I doubt that would be enough, but one can always hope.

Well... it seems like the Twins were very specific:

1. Lester/Buchholz + Ellsbury
2. Melky + Hughes/Joba/Kennedy + 1 more

I think they know that Melky's only net positive is on the defensive end at this point, hence the + 1 more for the Yankees to fill.

I'd much rather they fill that third spot with someone like Horne.

Pitching the Yankees farm has plenty of. Good outfield bats? Not so much.

I love how Kennedy and Melky and Horne aren't enough, but somehow Lester and Crisp aren't questioned at all.

I'll go up a friggin' wall, come down, and blow up the entire Minnesota front office while in a meeting if they take Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy for Santana.

Melky and Kennedy et al for Santana????

i actually now think it's entirely possible for Johan to don the pinstripes for 2008

if the Yankees get Pettitte back or acquire Haren, then Joba Chamberlain i think would go back to set-up man.. and the Yankees pitching would be quite formidable

As a Twins fan I would be very upset at getting only Hughes and Cabrera for Santana.

I'd much rather try to sign him for an extension or just take my chances with Santana & Liriano for 2008.

I'd hate to see him traded for a mediocore player like Cabrera or even Cano (both whom would hit worse without all that Yankee protection in the line-up).

Instead of Cabrera or Cano, I would like to trade our ace pitcher for future pitching studs. Let's trade Santana for 3 of these pitchers: Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Clippard, or Sanchez.

I'd much rather see Santana go the the NL like the Dodgers. If the Twins want to fill offensive positions, forget about Cano or Cabrera. Instead LA has future hitters in OF Kemp and 3B Laroche plus a pitching prospect like Kershaw would be great, but unlikely.

The Twins were right in not giving Hunter 5yrs/75m, but Santana for 6yrs/120m is fair. They have a new stadium coming in two years and I want to see Santana start the home opener. If they won't spend stadium revenue on the best pitcher the last five years, who will they spend it on?

Finally, if the Yankees are the only team Santana will go to, and the Twins want to dump him now I say trade pitching for pitching and get three of those future pitchers.

think the sox could get him for Jed Lowrie and or Brandon Moss, and masterson and or bowden

Optimus Prime:

If you think you're getting all 3 of the trinity, you're nuts.

I think Cashman makes the deal only if its Kennedy/Melky/Horne

I'm fairly sure Hughes, Cano, Joba are on the untouchable list and that Jackson and Tabata will be extremely hard to pry away.

I'd prefer Haren to Santana, only for the cost reasons and the fact that Haren has half the innings on his arm.

But man... if this gets pulled off without losing Hughes/Joba/Tabata/Jackson, I'll be ecstatic.

all three pitchers? that guy has lost his mind.

Optimus Prime:

That's still insane. At that price, the Yanks would probably look at Haren who wouldn't cost 20M a year on top of the prospects.

@LIZZ:

What's wrong with Damon? Just have him play until AJax gets ready. Why sign Rowand and block Jackson/Gardner? It makes no sense.

Henry I dont think jackson will be ready for at least 2 years, figure by that time damon and matsui will be gone then we have an of of rowand jackson and tabata!

Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury for the best pitcher in baseball.... why is Santana a Red Sox yet?

The MN Twins have a record of trading stars to major markets:

July 1989: Frank Viola to the NY Mets for Rick Aguilera, Kevin Tapani, Tim Drummond, and David West.

February 1998: Chuck Knoblauch to the New York Yankees for Brian Buchanan, Cristian Guzman, Eric Milton.

November 2003: A.J. Pierzinski to the SF Giants for Joe Nathan, Fransisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser.

Now tell me which of these traded players is worth more than Santana?

No way should the Twins trade Santana unless it is for three premium prospects.

"Regarding the Dodgers, check out an interview with Ned Colletti. For what it's worth, he doesn't seem anxious to deal 3-5 kids for a guy like Santana or Miguel Cabrera."

...Yeah, why trade them when you can have them buried on the bench or playing another few years in AAA...

Both of my local teams have horded this talent and lost their mind with the "power of possibilities" it seems. A couple years from now I will have the ability to go out to the park and watch a bunch of 30ish YO rookies surrounded by the likes of Hunter, Mathews, Pierre, Rowand and any other overpaid light-hitting 35+ YO CFer you can think of making over 10M a year… Ahhh, this is gonna suck!

oh, forgot *injury-prone* in my rant about the local CFers... Sorry!

"ANd Ned Colletti has a horrible mustache too!"

well his toupee is kind of cute and fuzzy.

The three pitching prospects I would like from the Yankees are: Hughes, Kennedy and Clippard.

In five years two of these guys should pan out as good pitchers.

And the Yankees will have the best pitcher in baseball for the next five years for $140 million.

Santana will only cost 10% of the Yankees budget. For the Twins he would cost 25% of the yearly budget.

If the Twins feel this is too much of a risk to spend on one player, then they have to look to 2010 when they start in their new stadium.

An additional three pitching prospects is the best place to start.

i read somewhere that whatever team trades for Santana might want a window to negotiate a contract extension. is that what the Yankees would want?
i would think one of Hughes/Chamberlain plus Melky Cabrera would be for just one season of Santana and not what the Twins would get if Santana signed an extension with NY. i would think any team trading for Santana if that team is able to negotiate a long term contract they should be able to get alot more than any combination of players mentioned.

im shocked the Twins are so hard on for Melky Cabrera. they want Ellsbury from Boston with one of Lester/Bucholtz which i can understand. Ellsbury is way better than Cabrera.. but i cant see it just being Cabrera with one of Hughes/Chamberlain.

Keep in mind Santana wants a negotiating window too. If he's traded to a big market club, he's going to want a long term contract ASAP. If the team doesn't offer him what he wants in the negotiating window, Santana can veto the trade. This is much more up to Santana than the Twins.

Henry,

The Yankees have "lost" money the past couple years as a result of surrendering their operational profits to revenue sharing. But these "losses" only reflect the net of the team itself, not those of its holding company, Yankee Global Enterprises, LLC.

Rest assured that between their cable network and future projections (remember the franchise is valued at over $1B), the Yankee empire is not losing money. You can't divorce the team from the companies and individuals that pull its strings.

PECOTA doesn't have their 08 projections yet, but going into 07, the projections were for Crisp to be worth $55M over the next 5 years, and for Cabrera to be worth $63M.

Melky didn't have a great year at the plate, but the projection was for him in LF. I would think showing he could play a competent CF in '07 would add to his value.

When combined with the fact that he just turned 23 (room for improvement), he's 4 years from free agency, and he's cheaper, I would say yes, Melky has more value then Crisp.

I'm a little skeptical that if the Twins asked for Bucholtz/Ellsbury, they would have asked for only Melky/and any one of the Yanks big 3 pitching prospects. Possibly if its a "must be" Hughes with Melky, if the Twins value Hughes over Bucholtz (certainly arguable).

One guy who I think is worth mentioning as a possible trade piece is Youkilis.

He could play 3rd for the Twins or 1st for the A's in a deal for Haren. I think if the Yanks or Sox deal for Santana, you certainly have to think that the other will make a play for Haren. I like Haren a lot, and he'd slot in behind Beckett tremendously.

What about a package of
Lester
Youkilis
Lowrie

for Haren.

OR
Coco
Lester
Manny Delcarmen
Lowrie

For Santana

Henry: "This whole thing feels weird. The asking price from the Yankees is less than the Red Sox's, the Mariners' and the Dodgers' (Kemp + Kershaw).
Is Santana using his no-trade to go to New York?"

I agree, and I hate feeling forced to trade the best pitcher in baseball to the evil Yankees for less than market value!

I'd much rather have Santana go to the Dodgers in a trade involving Kemp vs Melky Cabrera. Kemp could be a all-star for years to come, but Melky is a downgrade.

It seems like the Twins are panicking after the PR hit of Hunter leaving and they want to fill their holes with inferior players.

I wouldn't want to be forced to trade him if the Yankees are the only place Santana's agent says he will deal with.

He's under contract for 2008, so the Twins should just keep him instead of making a poor trade.

I'm a little skeptical that if the Twins asked for Bucholtz/Ellsbury, they would have asked for only Melky/and any one of the Yanks big 3 pitching prospects. Possibly if its a "must be" Hughes with Melky, if the Twins value Hughes over Bucholtz (certainly arguable).

One guy who I think is worth mentioning as a possible trade piece is Youkilis.

He could play 3rd for the Twins or 1st for the A's in a deal for Haren. I think if the Yanks or Sox deal for Santana, you certainly have to think that the other will make a play for Haren. I like Haren a lot, and he'd slot in behind Beckett tremendously.

What about a package of
Lester
Youkilis
Lowrie

for Haren.

OR
Coco
Lester
Manny Delcarmen
Lowrie

For Santana
With Delcarmen, the Twins could easily trade Nathan to another team and have Neshek closing and MDC setting up. Nathan should net a solid positional player and at least one high end pitching prospect. Lowrie is ready for the show and there are plenty of teams that could definitely benefit from having him, though I'm not so sure he has a spot on the Twins (they like Casilla and Bartlet). Might be a better fit with the A's.

Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy = Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson and Bill Pulsipher....

It is amazing how OVERHYPED New York prospects get. Joba has all of what, 25 ML innings under his belt? Phil Hughes had one great start before he pulled a Hammy, and was mediocre (at best) when he came back... And don't even get me started on Ian Kennedy. The kid is AT BEST a future Carlos Silva. But Yankee fans have all 3 of these guys already pegged for Cooperstown. Get real Skankee fans, they are called PROSPECTS for a reason...

Heyman's an idiot. And clearly a Yankee fan. His articles aren't worth wiping one's behind on.

Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy = Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson and Bill Pulsipher....

It is amazing how OVERHYPED New York prospects get. Joba has all of what, 25 ML innings under his belt? Phil Hughes had one great start before he pulled a Hammy, and was mediocre (at best) when he came back... And don't even get me started on Ian Kennedy. The kid is AT BEST a future Carlos Silva. But Yankee fans have all 3 of these guys already pegged for Cooperstown. Get real Skankee fans, they are called PROSPECTS for a reason...

people please.hank and hal are the owners of the team along with george,they have every right to spend their money the way they see fit.would you let your gm spend your money,i didn't think so.it's one thing if they try to manage the team day to day but when it comes to signing the checks it is their right.they at least to me have shown that they are smart.

JD, I'm not saying those 3 pitchers aren't going to get better (cuz they will), but some of the crap you Yankee fans spew out is just ridiculous! (MOST) of you put their potential and ceiling at a Hall-of-Fame level, when in reality, 1 out of every 8 or 9 "Hall-of-Fame caliber" prospects ever make it that far. Phil Hughes' ceiling is about Mike Mussina; Ian Kennedy's ceiling is about Carlos Silva; and Joba's ceiling (both in his career and his gut) are that of Bartolo Colon.

So when I hear Yankee fans (not you JD, but plenty others) saying that the Yankees would be "crazy" to trade Joba and Melky for JOHAN SANTANA it makes me want to puke on Babe Ruth's statue...

Thank You bjsguess, another person on this blog with a brain (you must NOT be a Yankee fan then I assume?)

I think everyone is forgetting the amount of leverage Minnesota loses by Johan having a NTC. What if he told the team he only wants to go with the Yankees, so they'd better iron out a deal with them or he won't waive his rights? Add in the fact that teams like the Dodgers and Red Sox don't actually seem to be interested in giving a pitcher a 6-year deal, and what's Minnesota left with? If they trade Johan to some team for a package of prospects, but that team doesn't come close to what Johan wants, then Minnesota is dead in the water.

The rumored return for Santana has gone from Chamberlain + Hughes + Cano to Hughes + Cano to Hughes + Melky to Kennedy + Melky. There's a pretty good reason for that: headlining trades never equal what the inital rumored returns are going to be.

Okay, yes that's true. But honestly, is one of the teams with the 1-15 picks (the bottom half in ML team records) likely to give a 6/120 contract?

And there's no way that Santana isn't a Type A player (barring injury), so the Twins would definitely get the sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds.

Of course, the Twins do gain something as well if they trade him: salary relief to the tune of $13 million.

Andrew,

That’s nuts. Do you think the Yankees would even know that they are the only team he is willing to be traded to in your scenario? I highly doubt the Twins are going to be advertising that… Truth is they would still work with the Dodgers and Yankees both getting the two to bid against eachother as high as they can before “accepting” the NY package. The NTC is really moot, it only means they will have to take a certain package, not how stacked that package will be.

Besides, its not even like they have to trade him! See, if they were forced to deal him and it somehow got out that he might only be willing to go to the Yanks then yeah, it might only take Kennedy + Cabrera. But because they don’t, they can just keep Johan, maybe spend a bit on guys like Guillen to bolster the offense and take their chances on yet another playoff birth with a 1-2 of Santana/Liariano.

Melky & Kennedy? Every single team in baseball can, and would, best that offer…

Besides, the funniest thing of all is the fact that all these rumors don’t even address the Twins real needs! They need hitters, not pitchers, and they need infielders much more than a questionable OF from the Bronx. They need more big bats, not contact guys, so if it is an OF I’m thinking more along the lines of Balentien from Seattle. All these “rumors” which are creating so much buzz don’t even have the teams desires correct so I cant imagine there is much to them on the truth side…

And why would they need to really raise payroll to keep him? They lost Hunter, that’s a good chunk of their payroll right there. This is what they are looking at in 08 so far:

Santana 13.25M
Nathan 6M
Morneau 7ish (Arb so…)
Mauer 6.25M
Cuddyer 6ish (Arb so…)
Punto 2.4M
Reyes 1M
Redmond 1M
Crain 1M
…Then a bunch of minimum wage guys. Well, that’s only 43.9 there so they have nearly 20M before they even reach last years total. Add to it a new stadium coming and the ability to trade Nathan ~ this team doesn’t need to shed money…

Darkstar is right on this one. That's why the Cano deal sounded more reasonable. The last thing the Twins need is a decent, at best, starting pitching prospect.

If I were Santana this is how I would do it. Start off by letting the world know that you are willing to take a 7/140 deal (or whatever the number is). Next, I create a list of teams that I would be willing to play for. Finally, the Twins can reach out to those teams and let them know what the basic contract demands are and see if they are interested. From the pool of interested clubs you start to build out appropriate trades.

There are two dynamics involving a trade of Santana. The Twins prospect demands and basically the free agent like contract extension it will take for Santana not to quash the deal.

Therefore, if Santana is traded he will go to one of two teams. The Yankees or Red Sox. No other team will be willing to extend him with a 6/$150MM deal along with the prospects it will cost.

Santana will not go to the Red Sox because the Sox will not pay another ace almost twice as much as Beckett is making. Santana is wanting 6/$150MM. Beckett makes $13MM/yr right now. That's a problem. Additionally, the Sox said they will not trade Ellsbury and Lester/Bucholz in a package.

The Twins are interested in Cabrera for a number of reasons. He just turned 23 and is a decent switch hitter and great defender. But what makes him more valuable to the Twins is how cheap he is for the next 3-4 seasons. With Torii signing at $18MM/year that increases the FA market for centerfielders overnight, which in turn makes it harder for the Twins to sign even a mediocre CF in FA. With the Torii signing and the Santana option to veto any deal, the Twins will have to settle for a little less than they orginally wanted. If they don't they will have Santana for one more year and only get a draft pick to show for it when he leaves in FA.

As such, I think the cost for Santana goes down a bit due to his ability to void any trade. He will ultimately land with the Yankees for Cabrera, Kennedy and another B+ prospect. The Yankees need an bonafide ace and have the ability to meet Santana's FA like extension.

Andrew,

Same reason as this: If your a stud in your office and they bring in another stud doing the same job as you and making twice the money, you would not be happy.

Sorry Skip, that deal aint happenin'.

The Red Sox would 100% be willing to extend Santana for 20+ mil and 6 years. They will probably extend Beckett and would have the flexibility to pay for the both of them as long as they don't trade away ALL their young guys.

Cabrera is not a "great" defender. Solid, but not great. Love the arm, hate the routes he takes. He's solid though and really young.

Not ANYTHING close to the package that will net Santana. Maybe if both Tabata and Jackson is the one B+ prospect, but that might even be a stretch.

If Melky and Kennedy would do it, I think the Sox would have to at least think about Ellsbury and a lesser Kennedy (because Ellsbury > Melky) in Masterson and another prospect or even a young pro (who had a great year) in Manny Delcarmen.

Could be an interesting winter meetings. Like I've said before, if the Yanks get Santana, I think the Sox will go after Haren, and vice versa.

As much as I love Santana, the rotation of Beckett, Haren, Schilling, Dice-K, Bucholtz is a tantalizing idea. That's assuming Bucholtz wouldn't be in the deal.

If the Sox can get Santana for a reasonable package of prospects they will do it. It's never a bad thing to have excess pitching to either trade off or hold in case of injury or underperformance.

And while Josh Beckett was great this year he did post an ERA north of 5.00 the year before. It's not remotely fair to compare the 2 of them. Santana is the best pitcher in the game. Beckett is the best pitcher over the past playoff series.

CT,

The Sox have a smart front office. They will not extend Beckett until his contract is up, which will be in 2010 assuming the pick up his option. So for the next three seasons he will be the ace? of the staff making less than half of what the other ace is making. I just don't see them offering a long-term deal like that to Santana when Beckett is making less than half of that. And I do not see the Sox just extending Beckett in the middle of his contract just to make him happy. Besides, the Yankees will not allow him to go to the Sox, period. The Yankees have never one a WS without a lefty starter and with Pettitte a question mark right now we need to solidify the top of our rotation.

I honestly don't see the Sox giving up their top prospects for Santana simply because they have a pretty formidable rotation already.

As for Haren, I would love to get him, however, his price will be equal to or even greater than Santana because he is under contract for the next three years at $2.2MM for 2007, $4MM in 2008, $5.5MM in 2009 and a club option for $6.75MM in 2010. Haren is a good top end guy but he is a righty and is not a Johan.

Let's talk a little A-Rod. What do you all think of these career postseason numbers?

AB Avg HR RBI OBP SLG
281 .278 18 48 .358 .527

Pretty pathetic, huh?

Doncoburleone, I was thinking the same thing. All this trinity stuff got me thinking of these guys they used to call Generation K. To be fair though, Issy has gone on to have a very succesful career, Wilsons career and Pulsiphers were decimated by being hurt. Thats all part of it though, you never know with young kids, one injury and they can be done, but it is a good point you bring up.

"people please.hank and hal are the owners of the team along with george,they have every right to spend their money the way they see fit.would you let your gm spend your money,i didn't think so.it's one thing if they try to manage the team day to day but when it comes to signing the checks it is their right.they at least to me have shown that they are smart."

A guy that doesnt even know how to use periods in his sentences or put spaces in between his words thinks Hank and Hal are smart. Oh the irony.

Dark,

All that matters is that Melky and Kennedy has value to the Twins, that is really all I care about for the most part. The Mets, are you kidding me? They have the OF prospects but I believe the Twins want someone they can put in the rotation next year and preferably one that didn't have a 5.57 ERA, 3-8 record and a WHIP of 1.70 (Pelfrey) or the other NYM pitching prospect who threw a whopping 7 innings and got shelled. Mets, please.

but thats the thing ~ they dont have value to the Twins! The Twins dont need pitching, THEY NEED HITTERS! Its only been said over and over and over this offseason, an inclusion of a SP would only be the third part of a deal, with the other two being fielders...

nrmax,

My point is those are not A-Rod's numbers, those are Reggie Jackson's a.k.a. Mr. October. Here is A-Rod's figures:

AB Avg HR RBI OBP SLG
147 .279 7 17 .361 .483

Mr. October
AB Avg HR RBI OBP SLG
281 .278 18 48 .358 .527

Not so different. Jackson did it in the WS but was abysmal in the LCS, A-Rod hasn't had that chance yet.

Milledge+ any pitching prospect the mets have > Melky+Kennedy to the twins imo.