Johan Demands Changed?

Even if the reds can get santana trade done.....does anyone think the reds can actually afford Johann financially at this point???....I like the ring of Harang-Santana-Arroyo...but I wonder how realistic it really is

I love the Reds idea. If they were willing to dish out a big contract, acquiring Santana could, dare I say make them a WS contender? That would immediately make them a contender in the NLC, and once you get into the playoffs, I would take my chances with Santana and Harang. Same with Arizona. Just give the guy his money while the other kids play for the minimum. The Backs can easily get Santana if they were willing to pay him. Santana and Webb in a playoff series is pretty awesome also.

This was a great deal for the Twins. What are the Rays thinking, giving up a young star for a over rated pitcher? The Rays needed relief help not another starter. The Twins have really helped themselves and can get a lot better by trading Santana.

The Yankees are just about out the sweepstakes unless it is a 3 team trade or Hughes gets included.

Tim, you don't think the Twins could just consider a stopgap at 3b before giving up on Matt Moses, Daniel Valencia and to some extent even Deibinson Romero?

The Yanks are definitely out. The Red Sox aren't but it will take more creativity. I don't think they'll give up Buccholz and Youkilis. So it would have to be Buccholz and prospects... Lars Anderson, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden.

The Mets are not really in better shape unless they will deal Reyes, because all their other pieces are outfielders. The LA teams clearly benefit in the sweepstakes. The Reds can't afford Santana, end of story.

They're losing Carlos Silva, too, so trading Santana would actually mean 60% of their rotation gone. That's rough ... Even if the Twins DO get Phil Hughes, '08 is sure to be a rebuild year without an established surefire ace to lend stability and credibility to that rotation.

I don't think this will prevent them from taking a deal we've already talked about. The Twins can use whomever they get in a Johan deal to then trade for a 3B.

This is a non-issue.

@ AJ

Remember Liriano? He'll be back and there's your ace.

If you really think about it, there are a couple things which have rarely ever been discussed with the whole Santana thing…

A) As I have been trying to point out, the Twins are not as straped for cash as everyone claims. A new stadium soon and currently 30M less than 07 on staff. Even if they were to give Santana 25M, it would work like this ~ 43M on staff – 13M Johan + 25M Johan = 55Million spent on 2008 ~ still 25M less than 2007!

B) The likelihood that they really, really want to trade him to a AL team like Bos, NY and Anaheim is probably slim. Its not like they cant be a contender now even with Mauer/Morneau/Cuddy, a rotation of Santana/Liariano/Boof/Baker/Slowey and Nathan finishing it off. Add in Young now, and a couple stop-gaps to fill in random holes ~ the team can easily sneak into the playoffs. Trading Santana to say NY for Hughes would mean they could very well be facing them in the first round ~ ie, makes it tough to swallow

C) (Like I’ve also tried to stress) No team should be counted out! SF has the highest paid pitcher ~ and by a good amount! Tex signed the second largest contract we have ever seen issued ~ 7 years ago! Teams like KC have dropped tons of cash on guys like Meche. We have no clue if a team like Fla or Wash or Pitt or TB or whoever will come in and say “this is the guy we want to build our franchise around”. Sure, it might be harder to get him to wave his NTC like that, but it could still happen if they offer up the cash ~ we have no clue…

The Twins should try to get involved in some sort of three-way deal with the Marlins to acquire Miguel Cabrera. Send Santana to Florida for Cabrera and let the Marlins take their pick of suitors for Santana. That way, the Twins would get their 3B (or DH) of the future, provided Cabrera can keep his weight under control.

I am not sure the yankees are out. It just means their offer has to get more realistic. I really doubt the twins would not even listen to an offer containing cano and hughes. The win now steinbrenners have made crazier moves than that already. Although there is no denying the dodgers should now be the front runner.

Everyone talking about percentages of the rotation needs to remember they are getting 20 percent back in Liriano.

Im not sure if Bailey-EE would get it done. The Reds WILL NOT trade Bruce.

The Reds are tight financially, but if they are willing to take on the extra salary for one year, The 20 million + could be compensated with the exists of Dunn and Griffey.

We'll see though, I personally dont see it happening.

I thought about the Vitters-Pie-Hill thing too. The problem is that Vitters is way too far away. he is probably 3 years from the bigs...with progression.

Whoever said Vitters is terrible doesn't get it. He is like 18...and was the best hitting prospect in the draft last year. BA ranks him the Cubs best prospect. Over guys like Gallegher, Soto, Veal, and the rest. Not saying those guys are anything special at all...but he is a very good prospect.

But, like I said, the Twins want someone that is VERY close to ready for 3rd base, if not ready now. The Cubs don't have that.

The Twins need to stop being cheap and just resign the best pitcher in baseball already!

They could move Santana for Billingsley, Laroche, Hu & Meloan. Then with a Neshek/Meloan combo at the end of the pen move Nathan to another team for a starting pitcher...perhaps Cleveland for Adam Miller and Cliff Lee or Lofgren?

Hey Tim, what about Santana to the Brewers for Carlos Villanueva, Manny Parra, and Mat Gamel?

nrmax,

Gammons reported via Olney on 1050 ESPN Radio NY that Twins were looking at Kennedy and Cabrera plus a B+ prospect to get Johan. Obviously, that is no longer the case, if it ever was. All I have heard today is Hughes as a starting point with Cabrera and at least AJax or Tabata. The Yankees aren't necessarily out of it but we don't match up as well because I don't see us giving up Cano and Hughes +. I like Cabrera but would rather move him since Rowand is still available but now that seems unlikely since the Twins no longer have a need in the OF.

Does anybody know when Delmon Young and Matt Garza are eligible for free agency?

nrmax and dark,

Yesterday the chips tossed around from the Sox were Crisp and Lester or Bucholz. Now that the Twins need a 3B, Youk and Bucholz would make sense as a starting point rather than Crisp or Ellsbury plus Lester or Bucholz.

"The Yankees aren't necessarily out of it but we don't match up as well because I don't see us giving up Cano and Hughes +."

I find it very interesting you refer to the Yankees as "we" when last night you said something along the lines of.....

"By the way, I am not a Yankee fan, I just made up that name for people like you to make such dumb comments.
Posted by: YankeeSkipper | November 27, 2007 at 11:47 PM "

nrmax,

You got me. I am a -- what was it you and dark called me -- Yankee homer.

Im sorry, but I don't seen how logical people could include Billinglsey in a Johan trade. How does trading Bills improve the rotation? He's been a major contributer the last two years. Yes clearly he won't outpitch Santana, but removing him and others and adding Santana + what it costs to retain Santana... who in their right mind would do that? Bills is far more established than Hughes or Kershaw or Kennedy or whoever and has just as high an upside. Im pretty confident he won't be dealt period, let alone for another pitcher. IMO people continue to think the Dodgers are going to throw out this huge package for Santana (when everything coming out of their camp is to the contrary) and their "offer" alway seems to be far better than anyone elses...

JL, I agree. I sort of feel like I wouldnt even trade Chad for Johan straight up.

Elite young 3B: Willy Aybar

Elite youg hurler: Mike Hampton

I think the Braves have a lock on Santana.

Bills needs to lose a few or he's gonna be the next Colon

forlife61...sorry, I guess you just fit into the regular idiot club.

A Pie, Hill, Marmol, Vitters package is comparable to others that even you consider to be worth it. Stop acting like an idiot.

"Pie, Hill, Marmol, Vitters package is comparable to others that even you consider to be worth it."

"I'm not saying it matches up, but talent wise, its right there"
NO, its not!
First off clown, the poster didnt add Marmol in his "scenario", so learn how to read idiot. Here, I'll post again( for the second time) what he proposed
"Pie-Hill-Vitters?"
That is the deal I criticized.
Do you see a Marmol in his proposal?? Who is the idiot now??
Second off Pie and Hill dont compare at all as to what has already been offered. Nobody in their right mind believes Hill has as much talent/upside as Adenhart, Hughes, Kennedy,Chamberlain, Bucholz,Kershaw( i.e. pitchers whose names have been mentioned). So again explain to me how any package containing 28 year old-middle of the rotation guy-Rich Hill is comparable?? Because of Pie?? GMAFB. Carlos Gomez, Kemp, heck even Melky have shown more than Pie has, take of your cubbie glasses goof. Vitters?? A guy who is only 18, didnt distinguish himself at all in his professional debut, is going to be a big part of a trade involving the best pitcher in baseball??? I guess 100 years of losing baseball can warp the mind huh??

Are you serious? Kennedy will have to hit his ceiling to be better than Hill. Did you see Hill at all this year? It was his first full season in the bigs...

Pie will be better than Melky...in fact, he probably already is. He is a defensive STUD and just needs to shorten his swing.

Marmol was the best reliever IN THE GAME in his first full year last year. He has a K-Rod type slider...hmmm...that might ease the blow of losing Nathan, wouldn't it?

So a package of Kennedy + Melky plus B prospect, which was being mentioned, is NOT as good talent wise as Hill, Marmol, Pie, and Vitters.

By the way, Vitters was ranked by pretty much everyone as the best pure hitter in the draft last year. Yes, he is 18...but the #3 pick and isn't just a throw in.

That being said, I don't think it matches up totally with what the Twins need...but talent wise, its right there.

As for this:

"Do you see a Marmol in his proposal?? Who is the idiot now??"

Yes, he was short Marmol, which would be a big piece. However, you need to stop saying moronic things like "resident cub idiots" because every team has idiots that follow them, there are just more cubs fans on this site. There are also some very knowledgeable ones, so cut the stereotyping crap.

And any package of Lester and Crisp + B prospect is worse than that too. I will admit that my first post undervalued Kennedy...I know he is good. But Hughes and Joba are far better...Kennedy is a big step down...

"Did you see Hill at all this year?"
Yeah I did. Middle of the rotation guy. Same guy who had an April of 3-1/ 1.77 and followed it up with a May of 1-3/4.6ish. A guy who had an ERA in the 5.0s in September. Yeah he did some good things ( 183K's)...lasting only 3 innings in Game 3 wasnt one of them....so I say, again, middle of the rotation guy.
"It was his first full season in the bigs..."
The fact that hes is already 27 ( will be 28 by next season) and it was his 1st full season in the bigs is not impressive.
"Kennedy will have to hit his ceiling to be better than Hill."
Yes and the fact that Kennedy has made the big league roster at 23 ( as opposed to the time Hill took to crack the big league roster), i'll take that bet anyday that Kennedy will max out faster and more than Hill.
"Pie will be better than Melky...in fact, he probably already is"
WHAT?? ARE YOU SERIOUS?? If you wanna say Pie will be better than Cabrera , ill disagree....but to say he ALREADY is better?? We agree that the word already means now, present tense right?? So how is Pie and his .215/2hr/20rbis/.271obp in 2007 better NOW than Cabreras .273,8hrs,73 rbis/.327 obp in 2007??
Explain to me how that is ALREADY better?? Or is it Pie's .229 avg/.304 obp now in winterball that is better than Cabrera?? They are only 6 months apart so age is no excuse. Lets see, Melky had his opportunity in 2006 to show what he could do( .280avg/.360obp) and followed it up in 2007 with a solid year. Pie had his opportuniy this year and lost out to FRIGGIN JACQUE JONES!! Dont give me any nonsense that Pie wasnt a regular starter and Cabrera was. Theres a reason for that...LOU didnt like what he saw from Pie! He wasnt ready, might never be the answer. So again if you wanna argue that Pie will be better,fine, but how in the world is Pie ALREADY better than Cabrera?? When Pie can hit better than .111 against lefties, come back and tell me he is ALREADY better than Melky.
"By the way, Vitters was ranked by pretty much everyone as the best pure hitter in the draft last year. Yes, he is 18...but the #3 pick "
Please, the baseball graveyard is filled with high draft picks who have amounted to squat. Remember the chicago kid from Simeon Jeff Jackson?? Never made it out of AA so spare me. Its one thing if Vitters had been tearing it up in the minors for at least a year( i.e. like Gomez,Wood,Laroche,Longoria etc.) but he hasnt. Will he?? Maybe, probably, but until he does NOT matchup with guys like teams Wood, Gomez, etc.
And stop bringing up Marmol, the poster wasnt mentioning Marmol in his scenario, let it go, eat your crow, admit you were wrong.
"you need to stop saying moronic things like "resident cub idiots" because every team has idiots that follow them"

Oh quit being so sensitive and grow a pair. I am very aware that their are goofs all over. I take alot of the ballbusting on this site with jest and laughs, and so should you. I agree with you on one thing, there are more cub fans on this site....so as a cub fan be understanding when we, the non-cub fan have to read some of the ridiculous nonsense your boys spew out( i.e. Hill-Pie-Vitters for Santana). Expect some ballbusting and move on.

"Don't you think that a Pie\Hill\Marmol\Vitters offer is at the very least on par with a Melky\Kennedy\B prospect offer?"

Yes 100% agree with you. When you add Marmol to the deal, I think that is DEFINITELY a better offer than the Kennedy/Melky/ B guy, hands down. Marmol would in fact be the deal breaker. Marmol was the best set up guy in the NL last year hands down and should be the closer in 2008. I still cant believe some cubs fans want Wood as the closer. Why?? Marmol is younger and has better stuff than him. Add him to the deal and it changes everything.

That said, i dont think you are like "most" of your fellow brothers. Your posts are actually informative and backed up with substance. Im not trying to be a jerk my man, but you have to admit that too many of your brothers come up with the most whacked stuff. Stuff that isnt informative and very much looks like the rantings of a 12 yr old who wants his "team" to get everyones best players for nothing(Remember Marshal/Hart/Cedeno for Crawford) Again, not trying to sound condescending ( I mean who the heck am I), but you and a very few others are exceptions to the rule. I actually agree with most of the stuff you post on here...with Pie, and to a degree Hill, being the exceptions.

I know about Bill James' projections, but i just dont see it with Pie...yet. James is basing those numbers on what Pie has done in the minors and Im sorry, I just think that that is flawed to do. Many times Bill is right..some other times?? Not so much. I could be wrong but im sure he had Corey Patterson winning MVPS and triple crowns. How bout Hee Sopp Choi?? We have all heard of the AAAA players, they come in all shapes, sizes, supposedly cant miss prospect and, again, I say the baseball graveyard is littered with them. Pie just hasnt shown me near enuff as Cabrera, and both have had equal opportunities. Can he become better than Melky?? Absolutley..Im just not convinced yet. Melky at this time is way ahead of Pie on the learning curve. Pie's swing is way to loopy, and the early results in winter ball arent encouraging. There had also been noise on the Chicago airwaves this past season about Pie being, oh how shall I put it..a little bit too drinky on Rush St. Yes, I know hes just a kid, but hes a professional and it seems like he hasnt got the "professional" thing down just yet. Lou knows what he is doing and there was a reason he stopped playing Pie. Some will say that there was too many players vying for the same time....B.S. Lou would have loved nothing more than to hand CF to a guy w/ Pie's defense and speed. Problem was he couldnt hit himself out of paper bag or take walks to get on base. In the end, he wasnt ready.

Hill has value no doubt. Hes a guy who will get you close to 200 innings and keep your team in it. That said, I'll disagree with you, he's not a #1 or #2. Again, we have to take into perspective that we were talking about a deal for Santana. A deal which would send Hill to IMO the best or 2nd best division in baseball, the AL Central. How does he project leaving the crapfest NL Central and then going to the AL?? Again, Im not convinced Hill is any more than a #3 in the NL and then you move him to the AL?? I will respectfully agree to disagree. That said, I enjoy your posts. Even when I disagree with them, they are informative, precise and most important...they are REALISTIC!!

Alright, fair enough. I can agree to disagree with you. Its early to tell right now, but we'll see. Thanks for the feedback...much appreciated.

"you have to admit that too many of your brothers come up with the most whacked stuff."

This is true. I hate it more than you do, believe me. It pisses me off because some people won't take what I have to say seriously, even if it makes complete sense, because I'm a Cubs fan. There are a lot that ruin it for us...but there are a few that do get it. Anyway, like I said, I asked for your opinion because I respect it, so thanks for the feedback.