Jays Waiting On Rios For Lincecum Offer?

I wouldn't have bashed Sabean at the time, even though he also gave up Bonser in that deal.

Still, Lincecum is a much better player right now than what he traded away for Pierzynski. Liriano was a talent with a big injury risk, Nathan was a converted shortstop who had a good season as a set-up man, and Bonser was a good pitching prospect. I don't recall any of these guys being even close to what Lincecum is, given Lincecum has demonstrated his talent against major leaguers.

Sabean is a fool if he goes for this, if for no other reason then because he would only be getting 3 years of Rios. And other teams with talented young hitters are fools if they don't try to jump in!

Nathan was clearly on the rise. The team was in need of a closer and he was the obvious candidate to take over for Worrell after 2003. Sabean was wrong, at the time, for trading him, especially for a catcher who was KNOWN for being a total a-hole in the clubhouse. The Twins would have given the guy away and they instead fleeced Sabean and the Giants.

Now the Jays are trying to rip the Giants off a 2nd time (the first being the Accardo-Shea Hillenbrand deal - what is about the Giants and trading future closers for clubhouse cancers?).

Baggarly reported that Sabean asked the Jays to up the ante, but the Jays are saying that the Rios-Lincecum deal is the only offer on the table. If that's the case, Sabean should tell them to forget it. The Giants should demand multiple players in exchange for Lincecum or Cain, not just an outfielder that doesn't even fill a positional need and isn't a guy you build the franchise around, like Cain or Lincecum are.

"and isn't a guy you build the franchise around"

LMFAO!! You obviously haven't see Alex Rios play. A 2 time all-star at age 26 is someone you build a franchise around.

ahahha. I will take Feliz if you take Pierre! DEAL???

A.J. was 26 and just coming off his best season when we stole him from the twins. His numbers back then really weren't that different from Rios now

This is a terrible deal for the Giants...

Rios + that pitching prospect at LEAST

if sabean does this deal, he should be fired on the spot. if he is going to trade lincecum, he needs to get 3-4 good prospects back to rebuild the team. the fact that the jays won't up their offer - i would tell them to go away. the only way this deal works is if he can plug multiple holes at once. this trade won't do it. sabean shouldn't waste any more time with this. i hope he doesn't prove himself to be an idiot again. the blue jays love trading with the giants.

Great article Tim. Hindsight is always 20/20.

I'm so confused about posters here. I just left the Johan trade thread where person after person bashes Johan because "he is a pitcher who only contributes every 5th day".

Now I come here and read about how Lincecum is the bomb and how can the Giants ever think of trading away a pitcher for just Alex Rios (297/354/498).

People here are so fickle.

In any event, hold on to Lincecum. I think Rios is a very nice player. He could be an elite player if he can maintain his power throughout the year. His minor league numbers are nothing impressive but he seems to be growing into himself.

On the other hand, Lincecum will be elite. His minor league numbers are a little skimpy (pitched in a total of 13 minor league games). His 1.01 ERA stands out. The year before he posted a 1.94 ERA at Washington. Everything about him screams superstar.

Don't trade timmy, period!

SF rotation still looks pretty decent even without lincecum, and their offense is horrid, this isn't that bad of an idea.

so, rios becomes the only giant that can hit the ball out of the yard, and lincecum enters the rotation in toronto as a number four and you think the giants are getting ripped off?

why in the world would the jays trade rios and lind without getting someone else back to fill the gap they would create in the outfield?

the giants outfield consists of exactly who at this point? the one thing they can afford to give up is pitching. Giants fans here seem to think that their homegrown talent is somehow more special than toronto's homegrown stars like rios - which is just silly.

if i were sabean i'd be wary too since JP fleeced him for Accardo in exchange for 2 months of clubhouse cancer Shae Hillenbrand and Vinny Chulk. this is probably the main reason Sabean doesn't pull the trigger right now i would guess.

I'd like to see the Reds make a bid for Rios. I wouldn't mind if they gave the Jays Bailey and another prospect other than Cueto, Bruce. If Griffey and Dunn leave the Reds could be searching for a outfielder this time nest season. Reds have too many left handed bats. Rios' right handed high power, high avg. bat would work beautifully in GABP.

I'll bet King is right. Rios isn't worth Lincecum. Or Bailey, for that matter.

As an add on, I as much as the Giants fans don't want to lose Cain/Lincecom, I don't want to lose Rios.

But the prospect of a line that looks like:

Halladay/Burnett/Lincecom/McGowen/Marcum is pretty nice. (mind you I still think the Jays should be looking at a Lefty)

And if they did trade Rios I wouldn't mind if those reports of the Jays talking to Lofton were true. It would add a leadoff man and adds another left handed batter to the lineup

Buddy, apparently you, like most other casual baseball fans don't pay much attention to Toronto. Rios in the last 4 years has consistently batted around 300.

Last year he played incredibly with no support around him in Wells, Glaus, and Thomas who all played a strkieout, or homerun game. On a team struggling, he emerged as one of the only successful offensive players.

The year before, he bat in Wells' shadow with much less pressure and without pitchers realizing his skill. Unfortunately he was on fire only until a midseason staff infection ended that.

Rios was hands down the best position player on the Jays in 07, and faced tougher pitching in the three spot, than he had the years before.

"The seismic trade proposal of right-hander Tim Lincecum for Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Alex Rios remains on the table for Sabean, who told KNBR radio that he wants to make a decision within two or three days.

"By the end of the weekend, maybe the first of the week, we're going to have to flesh this out one way or the other," Sabean told the station. "We are juggling some other things and we want to get on to other business if we're going to pass on this."

Sabean hinted that he was trying to finagle another pitcher to "lessen the pain" of losing Lincecum. While it's rumored that Detroit is looking to deal newly acquired left-hander Dontrelle Willis, the Giants probably don't have the chips to get the Oakland native."

http://www.mercurynews.com/giantsheadlines/ci_7669450?nclick_check&nclick_check=1

... I'd say Blair was probably right. So hopefully both sides will know soon.

The way I see it, is that this is a hard deal to figure out who comes out better off. Rios has the potential to become a future mvp, and the Giants really have no outfield or offence.

However, Lincecum has more upside than Rios due to his little experience and age. His downside, in my opinion, is that pitchers are far more likely to be injured.

For the Jays, the only way to compete with the yanks and sox is to out pitch them as we cant afford the same kind of lineup. For the Giants, pithcing wasn't their issue last year, it was their offence. So we know Rios is very good, but Sabean may be worried that Lincecum could become great himself and pitchers are harder to come by than outfielders.

What I find interesting is that everyone's acting like it's proven Lincecum is a star starter. I'd rather see how his career turns out as a Giant, but the fact is that he's only pitched one partial season, and in under 150 innings, he looked like he was suffering from some fatigue issues. As the season progressed, he lost fastball velocity as well as control; even as individual games progressed, he often lost control and velocity. There's a chance that Lincecum will be a hall of fame starter, but Giants fans need to remember that Lincecum may not even end up as a starter in the long run. I would be much more concerned about losing Cain than Lincecum at this point.

Alex Rios is basically an upgraded Jose Cruz Jr., pass. I keep hearing all this two time All-Star propoganda however Alex played a whole .1 innings as a def. replacement combined. Jays fans can talk all they want but he's in a lower class then Lincecum.

Firstly Id like to point out to the person above me that it's not what Rios did in the allstar game that means anything... its the fact that he played well enough to make it there. Now that being said, he still isnt worth Lincecum straight up. The problem is that SF is looking for a pitching prospect in return, which the Jays are in moderately short supply of. The difference between Rios and Lincecum is not large enough to warrant a very good pitching prospect in return (IE McGowan, Litsch, Marcum, Purcey or Ricky Romero) but more a mid level pitcher. Which the Jays are in very very short supply of. The jays seem to think mildly high of Davis Romero, so he might go the other way. My next guess would be Purcey going the other way but that seems very unlikely unless the Jays have soured on his recent numbers.

Again, to the guy 3 posts above now. Rios wasn't eligible to play in the all star game 2 years ago, (his first one) because of a staff infection costing him a season that was on pace for 50 homeruns, not saying he would have hit that in the end.

And when you try to comapre Rios to jose Cruz you really are one ignorant fan. Rios has been touted by scouts for the past 5 years, read any official scouting report on him.

Secondly, the deal likely favors the Jays, except that the injury risk in Lincecum is high due to his high stress delivery and he is still unproven. This tends to even out the deal.

Also, about Accardo, he was showing how good he could be, he was only inconsistent with the Giants, and he was like that again with Toronto that first season. Even at the time of the trade, Toronto was stating that they wanted him for closer, so that's why they threw in Chulk, to replace Accardo's relief innings for the Giants because the Giants also needed a 1B who could hit.

Hillenbrand, had he hit like he did when he was at Toronto, would have made a difference for the Giants, instead he stunk as badly as the other 1Bmen.

The fact about the AJ/Nathan trade is that if you compiled all of BP's comments on it, clearly the Giants came out ahead in the deal for an All-Star lefty-hitting catcher who plays good defense and hits too? There are lots of a-holes and some mature when traded and/or get older, but he didn't.

Who knew that a pitcher who was constantly injured every year at age 19-20 would sudden be healthy long enough to make the majors, before injuring himself again? Nathan was a nice pitcher but nobody was predicting that he would be a top closer, even after that great season as a mixed reliever. And Bonser, really, just a back of the rotation starter then and now, will he even make the rotation in 2008?

If there was any doubt of Rios' ability last year, he erased by having a good season. His power fizzled a bit in the second half but he started to draw more walks at the same time. He will probably get better, and even if he doesn't, he's still pretty good. As far as Lincecum goes, his numbers look good, I haven't seen him pitch but from the video's I've seen of him, his mechanics don't look out of whack, he may put his whole body into it, but thats not bad. Furthermore, his move to the AL probably wont be bad, power pitchers with good stuff tend to transition well, like Burnett.
Being a Jays fan I would like to see this deal happen, I believe the offense will be good enough if everyone back healthy to compete with four very good pitchers in the rotation.

Yeah, because Delmon Young is a) better than Rios, and b) not a complete headcase while Rios is quiet and humble. hmmm.

On a side note,this issue with Lincecum's delivery is partly due to the effort used in his body, as he has had back problems in the past, however without swinging a bat in the AL, it could benefit him. In high school he injured his back batting.

By the way, you're ignorance in your Giant love, ludicrous post and trade proposal above me is prefectly reflected in your name... zito4cyyoung. I bet you believe that Big Barry never took HGH.

OMG! Barry took HGH!! noooooooo! tell me its not true!! *rolls eyes* He's not on the team anymore, unlike your roided out 3B

Firstly, I have no sister and don't worry myself with your useless banter. And besides, who is the one trying to act tough now?

As well, next time try not to take back what you said.. "Delmon Young would have been a better trade for Giants in the position they are in." And now you try and tell me that obviously that trade isn't plausible, which it isn't.

I don't need to hear any more of your useless nonsense in response to real comments. I really no longer see a need to listen to anything you say again. Later.

F the Jays, they think they are all high and mighty because we are rebuilding our team they can push us around. If Rios is soo good then why did you guys shop him last year and now? You guys keep saying how you guys are set and dont need Timmy, keep Rios I remember when .280 and 25 hrs was average for an outfielder. We got a logjam as it is in the outfield where hitters are plentiful, we should be looking for a 3B. Lowry for Beltre/Clement and call it a day, JP and the Jays can sit on it in the east for all I care.

Simon you are funny!

You missed the point I was making in BOTH posts!

Hahah...

Peace out homie!!

"Youre not really going to start this shlt right now are you. Obviously however the Giants are building isnt working. They suck. How about Bonds, do you build around him, is he a 3 or a 4 hitter. It is such a stupid arguement its absurd."

What do you mean it isn't working? They are JUST starting to rebuild. How can something not work before it's started?

We got rid of Morris and Barry. We need to get rid of Dave Roberts/Rich Aurilia/Ray Durham. The last two contracts are up after this season.

What does Bonds have to do with anything? He isn't on the team anymore.

"It would be closer to fair if Toronto traded two identical players like Rios for Lincecum."

Rofl. Why not just give them Mcgowan, Marcum, Rios, Wells and for Lincecum. You guys are nuts.

Lincecum got rocked twice by the phillies, got rocked by Toronto, got rocked by Oakland, a couple times by the Brewers, point is, he had trouble with good teams, and he walked a lot of people too. He is electric, with big upside, but right now he is not worth more then Rios.

Ummmm...

Twice now you've stated that I said ONLY build around 4 hitters. I clearly stated "PITCHING OR A 4"

If you disagree fine! but at least address the statement correctly.

That is a brillian post above...You disagree, so insult instead of laying down your point!

Haha, I love internet tough talk!!

"Well, unless the Giants want to improve their offense, but why would they want to do that? I mean, isn't the goal of every team to lose 90 games every year and deem their young players completely untouchable even if moving them results in an improved team?"

One bat will NOT improve this team. Trading one stud pitcher for one stud outfielder STILL leaves us in last place. Giants should sign Fukudome or should have signed Andruw Jones. They keep ALL their pitching and add a bat.

Where are all the Jays fans saying "Don't make this trade!"? It looks like Jays fans want this deal and Giants fans don't... which makes it pretty clear who this trade is better for.

J. Alora...

That is the best point yet!

For the last time, if the Jays arent gonna add some players, then tell the banker No Deal.

"Where are all the Jays fans saying "Don't make this trade!"? It looks like Jays fans want this deal and Giants fans don't... which makes it pretty clear who this trade is better for."

Theres a reason that fans aren't GM's.

J. Alora, I disagree with you, the Jays were also a very bad offensive team last year, how does trading their best offensive player improve the offense? The logic behind this trade proposal is that JP Ricciardi expects to get healthy seasons out of guys like Wells, Overbay, Glaus, Johnson, Zaun, etc. which would off-set the loss of Rios. Plus, Jays fans want to get this deal done because they're going to lose AJ Burnett after this season so they want to accumulate some more pitching depth.

OK I am a blue jay fan who doesn't like this trade - Rios is one of the corner stones of our offense with him we have two gold glove caliber centerfielders... We don't need another pitcher we need a good defensive SS who can hit.
AS for there be no bluejay fans agianst this? check out this site and thread for the debate:
http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=2007120608370097#comments

The Giants are so awful, it doesnt matter that much one way or the other. Thing is though, when you are trying to get people to come to the games, it is nice to have atleast 1 good (great in Rios' case) player that plays everyday. Also, I think some of the reason that there arent so many Jays fans opposing the deal is that there are only a handful or so Jays fans here, atleast that I know of. And I havent seen lots of them advocating it either. The thing is, that rotation could give the Jays a legit shot to win this year. With 4 top pitchers, and Marcum, they would have a chance to win almost every game they played. I guess they risk losing Rios because Wells is locked into CF, Lind is coming up, and they can find a big hitting RF. He has more value to San Fran. I think a gold glove caliber, 30/30 threat, high average hitting CF is worth more then 1 top pitching prospect. Which pretty much is what Lincecum is. He has 140 solid innings pitched in the bigs. Rios is an all star gold glove CF that will step right into the middle of the lineup and produce. It is more then fair for the Giants.

Why would the giants even think of doing this straight up?

I think the reason that the Giants would think of doing a trade straight up is summed up in the following two names: Jerome Williams and Kurt Ainsworth. Trading away Nathan and Liriano, etc. definitely hurts worse from a fan's perspective, but remember that a pitcher at Lincecum's point in his career has absolutely no guaranteed return. Check out Jerome Williams's first season. He actually had a better ERA and WHIP than Lincecum posted (although the K/IP ratio wasn't there). He only got worse from there on out. Even Lowry, a successful starter, has never posted the numbers he put up in his first full season. What I'm trying to point out is that Lincecum looks great, but it's impossible to tell what will happen. On the other hand, Rios's upside may not be as high as Lincecum's, but he is a much more proven talent. There is very little chance of Rios's career fading away due to a lack of talent, and he is therefore a more reliable player to build a franchise around at this point. That being said, I'd be disappointed if the Giants took Rios for him rather than Delmon Young, and I'd definitely miss watching him. In the end, I think the Giants won't make the trade primarily because they would only control him for three years, but it's not nearly as bad of a deal as many of my fellow Giants fans seem to think.

nrmax88: try clicking through the link I provided, http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/iba_brians_song_lincecum_for_jays_rios/#2637557

MGL (baseball smart guy and disinterested observer Mitchel Lichtman) estimated that Rios is worth $30m to his current club, Lincecum $50m.

$60m is closer to $50m than $30m.

anonymous Jays fan who thinks '[a]s the season progressed, [Lincecum] lost fastball velocity as well as control,' I give you two links. On control, here's a chart of BB/PA against time: http://firstinning.com/i/chart/453311_bb_pa.gif In re velocity, viz http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/combined_tool.php?pit=453311&bat=0&type=-1&result=-1&count=-1&r_spd=1&spd=-1&r_brx=1&brx=-100&r_brz=1&brz=-100&l_b=0

If there is anything aside from noise in the BB/PA chart, I don't see it. As for velocity, Lincecum ended the season with an average fastball of 95mph. Either he started the year at 99mph (hint: he didn't), or you're wrong on both counts.

In re Williams and Ainsworth, neither ever showed the K rates Lincecum has. Williams's K/9 had dropped below 6 by his 2004 season, while his teammate topped out slightly higher before his freak injury. Lincecum, for all the walks, was at 9 last season. McGowan has never cracked 8 in the majors.

But don't let me interrupt your little flame war with facts and figures. Carry on, boys.

First of all, I had no intention of making my post anonymous, as the post below it indicates. Second, I'm a Giants fan. Finally, if you read more carefully, I did note Lincecum's K-rate. However, allow me to clarify my statements on control and velocity. As a Giants fan, I've watched every pitch that he has thrown since his debut, and according to the radar gun, he was peaking at 97-99 in all of those starts. However, after a while, those numbers lowered to around 96-97, and it was generally attributed to his nerves having worn off. Yet, at the end of the season, I rarely saw his fastball hitting anything above 94, and even saw it hover around 91-92 in a couple starts. Even if you ignore the debut velocities, a consistent loss of several mph still concerns me. Similarly, believe me, I've looked at the BB numbers. But I also saw the pitches he was throwing. Just from watching the games, it seemed that his control was off. Later in the season, he often threw pitches outside when the target was in, or up when the target was down. Just because his tremendous stuff allows him to miss targets once in a while does not mean that he's a durable starter.

Also, I'd like to clarify that I'm not even suggesting that I want the trade to go through (again, read the entire post). I'm just saying that, in Sabean's position, I would be listening. If he makes a trade and it's a dud, his career's over. But if he doesn't make a trade, and Lincecum's career never takes off, his career's still over.

I'm glad that you're all so sure that Lincecum is money, but I'd like to remind you guys that there are far more phenoms who debut each year than there are aces. Brett Tomko was supposed to be the next Curt Schilling, and his numbers looked good through his first full season. Be careful about buying into all of the hype until we see how Lincecum performs in his second year.

I just want to clarify something for you Giants fans out there - you guys keep saying that the fact that the Jays want to make this trade is proof enough how one sided it is. Well let me explain to you why JP is willing to trade Rios. Toronto's ONLY 2 legitimate prospects that aren't years away from the show are Adam Lind and Travis Snider, and both happen to be outfielders. Vernon Wells is locked in at CF for the next 6 seasons. Lind is ready now, and there's a realistic chance Snider is ready by 2009. This makes Rios the logical, expendable one. If it weren't for this fact, most of us Jays fans would be LIVID about trading away a polished 26 year old 5 tooled OF (and also the best defensive RF in the game) for a young pitcher, who while having ACE potential, is still a project.

I also want to point something else out. Looking at Rios' stats the last 2 seasons sort of doesn't tell the whole story about how good he can be. As a Jays fan I am very concerned with how he has dropped off after the All Star break in each of the last 2 seasons. With that in mind, look at what he did each year BEFORE the break, and maybe you will understand why we are so high on Rios and think he can be even better than his stats have shown thus far.

2006 .330 .383 .585
2007 .294 .350 .520

Those are 2 significant 3 month chunks, so it's not like the sample size is tiny. In 2006 he was on an absolute tear before a fluke infection zapped ALL of his energy. He lost 10-20 pounds, and when he returned it took him a good month till he got any bit of his swing back. So when you guys go and run and look at his stats, there's more behind the story. He HAS NOT peaked, and has shown the capability to be even more of a stud than he already is.

Now, don't get me wrong. I am in complete agreement with you Giants fans that having Rios in the lineup is not the saving grace and that the offense will still struggle to score runs. From the Giants perspective this trade doesn't make sense to me, an avid Jays fan. But it's not nearly as ludicrous as you guys are making it out to be, and some of you are seriously discounting what Alex Rios is. He would instantly become the best outfielder in the entire division (defense matters Mr. Holliday).

Rios for Lincecum is a very fair trade, but...I really want this trade to happen, and would be willing to overpay to convince the Giants to make it (because they don't need to, and shouldn't). I wonder if the addition of our first round pick from 2004 David Purcey (who at the time was said to be the best LHP in the draft and had a fantastic AFL this fall) would get the deal done.

I like Rios. I like him a lot.

But before 2006, he had only once OPSd over 800 for an extended period at any level. His minor-league OPS is 740, in well over 2000 ABs. His last two years in the majors count more, and his MLB OPS in roughly the same 2000 AB is around 800, and closer to 850 the last couple years.

850 OPS plus speed and defense are pretty special. I would trade for Rios in a second if I thought it were a fair trade. However, there's no reason to believe he's ever going to deliver more than this. Wearing down throughout the season suggests, if anything, that as he ages his year-round bat will look like his second-half bat does now, OPS ~750.

Lincecum, as we all know, remains a high-risk proposition. The reason we all are interested, for both teams, is that his minor-league numbers are even better than his past-year totals. Did you like 9 K/9 in the majors? Try on 15 K/9 in the minors. If Lincecum grows into that track record, he'll do to the majors what Joba Chamberlain (minor league K rate ~14 K/9) is doing right now -- but as a starter, for seven innings at a time, not for three to five outs.

He's a high-risk, high-return proposition. If you want your team to have certainty, don't trade for him. If you think he's Brett Tomko (minors K/9: 9) or even Mark Prior (minors K/9: 10), then you have to explain how he struck out half-again as many minor leaguers per out than either of them did.

Now, even then, as noted, he's a high-risk proposition. He walks too many. His professional track record is short. If I'm a team on the verge of going to the World Series, and I can trade for an 850-OPS right fielder with great speed and defense who will put me over the top, I might do it.

But the Giants suck. Their upside next year is .500. They might as well take the risk. If Lincecum flames out or his arm falls off, well, them's the breaks. But if he grows into his potential, he'll deliver substantially more value than Rios ever can.

Plus, he is more fun to watch than any other starting pitcher working today.

Why do Jays fans keep saying he's high risk, if he's high risk then Johan and his changeup must be a meltdown waiting to happen. Timmy's mechanics have never been seen before in the majors. We shut him down early last year because adding in triple-a he pitched 177 innings, not bad for a kid playing his first full season. He doesnt need to add heat or ice to his arm after games. For a power pitcher thats unheard of, I hope you Jays fans enjoy Rios because Lincecum is staying with us.

Well obviously Lincecum is a higher risk than Rios. Young pitchers in general are less likely to be successful than young hitters, and Rios is already a proven commodity. This deal isn't getting done anyways just because the Giants would want somebody they can control for longer than 3 years and whos younger than 26.

arms are a rarity) and not to go out and find a fielder just as good or better than rios, i'm just not on board with this... if they had a weaker rotation then i would be all for it but with the rotation the jays then there really is no point to the deal maybe just to shake up the locker room but thats it...