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Needs and Luxuries: Tampa Bay Rays
Up next in our Needs and Luxuries series, the Rays. Here's how they're set up.
C - Dioner Navarro
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Akinori Iwamura
SS - Jason Bartlett
3B - Evan Longoria
LF - Carl Crawford
CF - B.J. Upton
RF - Cliff Floyd/Rocco Baldelli/Jonny Gomes
DH - Cliff Floyd/Rocco Baldelli/Jonny Gomes
SP - Scott Kazmir
SP - Jamie Shields
SP - Matt Garza
SP - Andy Sonnanstine/Edwin Jackson/Jeff Niemann/Jason Hammel/J.P. Howell
SP - Andy Sonnanstine/Edwin Jackson/Jeff Niemann/Jason Hammel/J.P. Howell
Setup: Al Reyes
Closer: Troy Percival
Needs:
The '07 Rays ranked 8th in the league in OBP and 4th in SLG. How can they find the needed OBP improvement? Delmon Young's sub-par OBP is gone, replaced with the Gomes/Floyd/Baldelli rotation. Let's consider any Baldelli contribution as gravy and just look at what Gomes and Floyd will provide. Gomes had a .322 OBP last year and owns a career mark of .335. He draws plenty of walks, between 9-13% of his plate appearances. To become an above average Major Leaguer he is going to have to make better contact and get his batting average up. Floyd had a fine .373 OBP in '07 and has a .359 career mark. I think the planned three-man RF/DH rotation is a fine idea for a team not quite ready to contend. It would be very interesting to see the Rays bring Bobby Abreu back next winter though.
Navarro was insanely bad before the break in '07 but had a solid .815 OPS after. He's just 24 in February. Another improvement should come with Iwamura spending all year at second base. More of him plus Longoria's projected .350 OBP instead of Ty Wigginton push this team's OBP even higher. No more Josh Wilson, more games for Upton, and the addition of Willy Aybar are other sources of OBP. The '08 Rays are primed to reach base more often.
While the metric isn't perfect, the Rays' 5.20 starter ERA tells you something. However, hope is on the way. The rotation is already fronted by sub-4 ERA beasts Kazmir and Shields. New addition Garza should remain above average. Then the goal is to find the best of Hammel, Jackson, Sonnanstine, Howell, and Niemann. While these aren't household names there's a lot of talent in that group. The pitching pipeline is stacked with five-star prospects David Price and Wade Davis plus a four-star Jacob McGee. The "need" for '08 is to let young pitchers get their big league reps in. The Rays don't need a veteran free agent stealing valuable innings - instead save the money and bring in a difference-maker for '09.
The Rays' bullpen was league-worst in '07, but they've already taken steps to address it. The last piece of the puzzle may be to find a lefty like Trever Miller. But this 'pen will be much improved with Percival, Eduardo Morlan (acquired in the Delmon Young trade), a full year of Dan Wheeler, and the starting pitching runoff (Niemann could be interesting). Maybe the big move for a Lidge/Nathan/K-Rod makes sense next winter.
Luxuries:
Let's see here. The best farm system in baseball (aided by all the losing) has the Rays overflowing with young talent. Pitching, hitting, you name it. Oh, and they have the #1 pick again this summer (read about some options for that here). You can never have enough pitching, so the Rays should probably just keep all the arms. A healthy Baldelli would be an interesting trade chip. Bartlett or Iwamura could become expendable if Reid Brignac makes strides.
The other luxury for Tampa Bay is payroll flexibility. They have no bad contracts. They could make a couple of big-time signings in the winter of 2008-09 and still have one of the lowest payrolls in the game. '08 is where the Rays finally crack .500. '09 is where they start showing the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays that they're not messing around, and reach the playoffs for the first time. This bandwagon is picking up steam.
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as a Yankee fan it hurts to say this, but yes the Rays are for real. Upton is a STUD
Posted by: maximumpotential | January 21, 2008 at 12:00 AM
as a Red Sox fan, I hope you are right, it would be great for the Rays to get involved, that fan base deserves a good season.
Plus it rewards a team for building talent, not overpaying for mediocre free agents.
Posted by: quintjs | January 21, 2008 at 12:10 AM
In about 1-2 seasons, the Rays are going to be very good. They make a big free agent signing or two and they could be right up there with the Yanks, Sox, and Jays. With all of the insanely young and talented players they have, they are bound to be good for a while.
Posted by: bravesrule14 | January 21, 2008 at 12:16 AM
I think if they signed a Colon or Garcia and provide say league average or better it would be a really nice fit. Both guys would be good mentors for this current staff.
Posted by: Dev0 | January 21, 2008 at 12:46 AM
I agree. The Rays are going to be scary good VERY soon.
Couple of minor things:
1) Morlan should be a stud; could even be a Joba light with his velocity/stuff out of the pen, but he's not quite ready yet. September or so maybe.
2) I think you undersold Garza a bit. He's really not much different than Phil Hughes. There's a reason people have compared him to a young John Smoltz, and us Twins fans were so pissed to see him go. He has legitimate ace stuff, and I wouldn't doubt if he passed Shields as the #2 on the staff in the near future. Man, that staff is going to be sick with Davis/McGee/Price. And just think if they get another guy with the #1 pick this year.
They could easily end up trading Kazmir in a year or 2 for some sweet haul even.
Watch out; the DRays are coming.
Posted by: djskilbr | January 21, 2008 at 01:47 AM
Sorry, "the Rays." That's gonna take some getting used to.
Posted by: djskilbr | January 21, 2008 at 01:48 AM
i didnt know abreu was ever a ray??? could someone enlighten me on that matter????
Posted by: gemf89 | January 21, 2008 at 05:08 AM
"'08 is where the Rays finally crack .500. '09 is where they start showing the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays that they're not messing around, and reach the playoffs for the first time."
Alright, I'll call foul on this and throw cold water on these proceedings. We've been hearing this for a long time now. Back when Jorge Cantu and Jonny Gomes were considered "further proof of their can't-miss young studs" but instead only had one year. Back when Wes Bankston was a sure thing. Back when Josh Hamilton was going to revolutionize the franchise. Back when Dewon Brazelton, Seth McClung, and Jason Standridge were going to form a great pitching staff and Jesus Colome and Matt White were going to the uber bullpen guys.
Let's look at the facts. With Kazmir and Shields, they finished last in the majors in ERA by a LARGE margin. They got a monster season from Carlos Pena, a great season from B.J. Upton, the lineup is pretty much set but they still only finished 15th in runs, and oh yes, they couldn't even beat out the Kansas City Royals and finished in last yet again. I don't think Pena is going to have as good a year, and I don't think Upton with his implausible .393 BABIP is going to have as good a year. I see improvement for 2008 and finishing above .500 in 2009, but not the playoffs.
People have been heralded the coming of the Rays for years now. I don't think they've built a team the right way. They've been drafting ridiculously high and doing nothing but signing guys just to trade them for too long now, they should've been able to at least beat up the Orioles more times than they have and finish at least 4th.
They've certainly done a better job building with a small budget than the Royals or Pirates though. The Pirates in particular have jack crap to show for all their high draft picks. Oooh, Neil Walker, what a stud. Give me a break. Compared to the Pirates, the Rays are doing a fantastic job building their team.
Posted by: DentalPlan | January 21, 2008 at 06:06 AM
But people wrongly heralding the Rays as contenders pre-2009 shouldn't get in the way of the analysis. I don't remember any established writers saying the Rays were contenders pre-'09.
I don't remember anyone smart heralding all the guys you named as the next winning Rays team. Seth McClung is not equal to David Price.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | January 21, 2008 at 07:33 AM
Abreu was drafted by TB from the Astros in the expansion draft before the 1998 season. Before the season started, they traded him to the Phillies for Kevin Stocker, so he never played an inning for TB.
That is one of the most reviled deals in TB's history. The argument by LaMar at the time was that the Devil Rays' young pitchers needed a solid defensive major league shortstop behind them. Abreu at the time was an unproven commodity who had somewhat fallen out of favor in Houston.
Posted by: Bob R. | January 21, 2008 at 08:12 AM
Calling the RAys a .500 team in 2008 is a bit generous; I think they'll end up at about 74-77 wins because their pitching could definetely go through some growing pains.
Posted by: JD | January 21, 2008 at 09:24 AM
Toronto is still superior in the rotation and bullpen and perhaps slightly behind on offense; a 3rd place finish in the AL East may also be a longshot.
Posted by: JD | January 21, 2008 at 09:26 AM
.5oo is a bit generous maybe 75 wins.
Posted by: joemorgan=#1 | January 21, 2008 at 09:48 AM
The team dosen't really look to shabby to me. Yea, if they were in the NL east and not the AL east. Forget about competing with the Red Sox, and even the weak pitching, Santana less Yankees.
Posted by: PIERZYNSKI 4 PREZ | January 21, 2008 at 10:04 AM
I think .500 is a pretty solid estimate. I don't think Kazmir or Shields have many more growing pains to go through, and Garza played a decent amount of MLB ball last year, so their first three starters are pretty entrenched. And they all could post ERA's in the 3's if they all pitched well.
Considering there are some offensive monsters in that lineup in Upton, Crawford, Pena and potentially Longoria, this team will be quite solid this year.
And I think a potentially good comparison for Eduardo Morlan is Carlos Marmol with the Cubbies. Both of them are young stud fireballing relievers. When Marmol managed to harness his fastball and that nasty slider, he became a monster of a set up man, posting a 1.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 96 K, 35 BB, and opponents batted .169 with a .507 OPS against him in 69.1 innings. Thats pure domination of your opponents. Thats the sort of production that Morlan may be capable of.
Posted by: scribbletone | January 21, 2008 at 10:14 AM
The Rays' main weakness in 2007 was their defense, which was about 80 runs worse than average. That's half a run per game, making the pitchers look a lot worse than they really were. Swapping Harris for Bartlett at SS is a 30-run upgrade, Upton is much better than Young or Dukes in CF, Iwamura should be slightly better at 2B than 3B and an upgrade over Upton & company, and Longoria's glove is seen as a positive at 3B. Look for normal improvement by the non-Kazmir/Shields starters, plus an ERA bonus thanks to the better fielding.
Posted by: Sky | January 21, 2008 at 10:21 AM
I keep telling my Yankee fan friend that the Rays could finish third in 2008 and win around 85 games and he just laughs at me. I'm still convinced I'll be the one laughing come October, at least on this subject.
Posted by: MEddler | January 21, 2008 at 10:57 AM
AND that Jacob McGee kid is a lefty that throws 98MPH, with a slider AND a curveball. That is a very unique pitcher right there that could add a whole lot to the look of their rotation.
The main reason the Rays will be in contention by '09 is not that their offense will improve (and it most likely will) but because their pitching is solid, and they're stacked in the farm system for years to come.
They lost a lot of games last year due to the bullpen, and some poor performances from the 3 - 5 guys in the rotation, which had a revolving door on it.
With that settled, bringing in Garza, and eventually Neimann/ Price/ McGee, and with a retooled bullpen, '09 is not too soon to project a playoff berth.
I'm calling a Wild Card playoff berth in '09, though.
Posted by: lrs77 | January 21, 2008 at 12:17 PM
For those who are asking why the optimism about the Rays future is different than the optimism from the Brazelton/McClung/Standridge days, it is depth. Then, if every player had panned out, they would have been a very good team, but most didn't. Now, they have a league average front 3, with about 5 guys with the potential to be #4/5 guys, plus a number of prospects like Niemann, Talbot, Mason, Price, McGee, and Davis on their way. Even if two-thirds flame out, they still have 3-4 guys capable of filling 2 spots. The offense is already good, and with the expected improvement in OBP this year, they should be in the 10-12 range in runs scored, even with regression from Upton and Pena.
Posted by: raysrule07 | January 21, 2008 at 02:20 PM
DentalPlan wrote, "back when...Jesus Colome and Matt White were going to the uber bullpen guys."
Actually, Jesus Colome is a magnificent bullpen guy - he just plays for the Nationals.
Posted by: brianrein | January 21, 2008 at 02:48 PM
"I think if they signed a Colon or Garcia and provide say league average or better it would be a really nice fit. Both guys would be good mentors for this current staff."
I heard that when scouts went down to check out Colon, his fastball was topping out in the upper 80's.. that's quite a ways from the 98+ MPH fastball he built all of his success on.
Posted by: GoTribe | January 21, 2008 at 03:02 PM
" '08 is where the Rays finally crack .500. '09 is where they start showing the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays that they're not messing around, and reach the playoffs for the first time. This bandwagon is picking up steam."
Oh please. Remember this?
"Mark my words, the Devil Rays will be a contender by 2007."
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2005/11/julio_lugo_to_t.html#comments
The "Devil" Rays ain't going anywhere.
Posted by: LaRocheMotel | January 21, 2008 at 03:06 PM
"I don't remember any established writers saying the Rays were contenders pre-'09."
Uhh...I know you're not established, but...
Tim Dierkes: "Mark my words, the Devil Rays will be a contender by 2007."
Posted by: LaRocheMotel | January 21, 2008 at 03:10 PM
i am a rays fan, i am somewhat excited about these next few years. i do feel better about this new regime ( i dont like the new name or uni's) they are slowly backing up there words. they signed pena to a 4yr 24mil deal, they are talking with shields camp about a reported 7yr deal, and we signed the kid k to a 1yr 3.75mil deal i am hoping that was just to avoid arbitration and come up with a long term deal. we know most of the team is fairly talented and not happy with the there record, i see the tides turning but i dont want to set myself up for heartbreak...
Posted by: ray_4_all | January 21, 2008 at 04:59 PM