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« 10 Spring Training Trade Candidates | Main | Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana's Contract »
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana's Contract
The biggest move of this year's Hot Stove League was clearly the trade of Johan Santana. The subsequent contract given to Santana by the Mets set a new benchmark for pitchers and could have a lasting trickle-down effect on other pitchers in baseball. The players most likely to cash in on the Santana deal are other young lefties with strong track records. The first fallout appears to be in Cleveland, with the recent news that C.C. Sabathia has broken off contract talks. With pitchers and catchers conducting their first workouts in many camps today, let's take a look at how Santana's deal is affecting other pitchers in the blogosphere.
- Let's Go Tribe feels that Sabathia could command $150MM on the open market and breaking off contract talks means Sabathia will not be a member of the Indians in 2009.
- Indians Confidential agrees that Sabathia is "as good as gone."
- Tribe Report does not think the Indians should give Sabathia a seven-year deal as it is a stretch to think he will be worth $20MM at age 35.
- MLB Fleece Factor calls it "The Santana Effect" and believes that Santana's new deal means that A.J. Burnett will likely opt out of his contract in Toronto following the 2008 season. In addition, they believe that there is a possibility that the Jays will look to trade Roy Halladay prior to his 2010 free agency.
- Rays Index believes there is a good chance the Rays will look to trade Scott Kazmir following the 2008 season. They feel that Santana's deal will make it nearly impossible for the Rays to sign Kazmir to an extension prior to his 2010 free agency. In addition, the recent bounty obtained by the Orioles for Erik Bedard and the pipeline of top pitching prospects in the Rays' system, suggest that it is in the best interest of the franchise to move their young ace.
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It was very very obvious Burnett was gone this year, Santana deal had not effect on it.
I think Halladay is a Jay for life. He gave a discount even before the Jays started improving, so now that they will have a good team to come, I'm sure he has no intentions of leaving, and I'm sure FO will pay what it takes to keep him.
Posted by: juiced | February 15, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Halladay has a blanket no-trade clause.
Burnett's agents already told TBJ management that they intend to opt out if Burnett has a good season.
Both bits of info are public knowledge, and yet neither was reflected in the post to which Cork linked.
Posted by: Keith Law | February 15, 2008 at 11:50 AM
If there is one move that would make me really give up hope for a team that is supposedly on the rise, it would be the Rays trading Kazmir. Here's the deal:
He just turned 24 in January. He has 3 full seasons ptiching in the AL East with an ERA under 4.00. His K:BB ratio has been about 3:1 the last 2 seasons.
If there is a better example of a young ace who can help the Rays compete with the Sox, Yanks and Jays over the next 10 years, then I have no idea who he is. The Rays have the lowest payroll in the AL (baseball?) and got Kazmir for a steal from the Mets and have paid him less than $1.5mm so far. Why would you trade him for more prospects? All they have is prospects. Their lineup is filled with high ceiling youth, they have young guys in the rotation and some of the best pitching prospects in the minors.
If Kazmir was 29, a free agent after this season and a question mark, fine. But he is a 24 yo lefthander who has proven he can pitch in the AL East (especially against the Red Sox) and who is 3 years away from free agency. SIGN HIM NOW RAYS.
Posted by: BigScooter | February 15, 2008 at 11:52 AM
Often a no-trade clause is just a way for a player to control where he is traded.
As for Burnett. I understood that it is expected that he will "opt-out", but was unaware that management was already informed that he will. If there was any possibility that he could change his mind, the Santana contract may have been the proverbial "last nail"
Posted by: Cork Gaines | February 15, 2008 at 12:09 PM
Certainly the Rays want to sign Kazmir, but at what cost? $100MM+ on a team with a $50MM payroll? The idea is more...if the Rays can't resign Kazmir, then it is to their benefit to trade him sooner rather than later.
And with the Rays on the rise, they would not seek "prospects". More likely they will seek one or two Adam Jones-type players as well as bullpen help in addition to a couple of top prospects.
Also keep in mind that the Rays have three of the best pitching prospects in baseball knocking on the door in Wade Davis, Jake McGee and David Price.
Posted by: Cork Gaines | February 15, 2008 at 12:14 PM
I'm not sure that any of the teams that traded good pitchers this winter got enough of a bounty for it to make sense to trade Kazmir. If they're gearing up for a run around 2009-2010, then they'll probably get more value out of Kazmir than whatever they'd receive in return, unless they're okay with being in perpetual building mode.
Posted by: Brickhaus | February 15, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Is that any different than the Twins or the A's? Certainly the Twins were a stronger playoff contender with Santana than without. These teams need to balance the needs of the presence with an eye on the future. This is how the Twins and the A's are competitive most years while other teams will "go for it" one year and then break it all down and start over from scratch. The Rays are a team that are trying to do the former. Be consistently competitive. The question ultimately will be, are they willing to sacrifice a bit of the future for one shot at greatness in 2009 or 2010?
Posted by: Cork Gaines | February 15, 2008 at 12:25 PM
This will be a recurring theme for the Rays. If all these prospects pan out then the Rays are going to be holding fire sales as an annual event.
The reality is that in order to compete every year in the AL East they will need to raise their payroll, if simply to keep paying their youngsters as they reach arb and beyond.
Without that, they are basically a feeder team for the Sox, Mets, and Yanks. The Rays sign and develop top talent, then sell the talent off once the talent is established (and expensive).
Posted by: bjsguess | February 15, 2008 at 01:10 PM
the Rays should realy sign kazmir he is a great YOUNG pitcher that is already in his prime.. the Rays really need to go out of the way here to sign him they will have a great i mean great 1,2,3 pitchers in a elite al east that the Rays might take over if they keep with all there young guys
Posted by: futureprospect3 | February 15, 2008 at 01:42 PM
The Rays should trade Kazmir. In 3 years, Kazmir, Pena, and Crawford will hit free-agency. Pena wont be as good as he was this year, and he has shown that he will take a hometeam discount. Crawford loves the Rays, and has already signed an extension. He will be afordable. If you sign both of them, you cant replace Kazmir. With 3 five-star pitching prospects, it would be easier to lose a pitcher than to lose your best 2 offensive players. If you trade him after the '08 season, you can fill all of your holes and compete in 2010 or 2011. By that time, Brignac, Jennings, and their first round pick this year will be ready. I know this sounds crazy, but I could see him go to the Cubs for Hill, Marmol, and Soto. Soto would be their catcher of the future, Marmol would be their closer and they get another good, young, lefthander in Hill. The Cubs would have an awesome rotation with Kazmir, Zambrano, and Lilly at the top.
Posted by: Joe | February 15, 2008 at 03:33 PM
Joe - won't the Rays have the same problem though. If Hill continues to mature and improve won't he be in-line for substantial pay increases through arb and FA?
Posted by: bjsguess | February 15, 2008 at 05:50 PM
Joe,
You are obviously a wishfull thinking Cibs fan. There is no good reason the Rays should tarde Kazmir now....2 years, sure. Regardless I would not offer Kamir and insane contract. I believe his body type is not condusive for the long term. I also would not give CC, as much money as Santana. His weight, really scares me. You look at Johan.. he has a perfect, durable pitchers body. CC looks like David Wells
Posted by: Bonatom | February 15, 2008 at 07:01 PM
Joe is not a wishful thinking Cub fan. If he was thinking as a Cub fan, he would let us know who would replace Soto. No one! Blanco is a back up. Hill is on the brink of being a true name in MLB. He will win 15 this year. That's right! Where is the value of trading him? There is none! Marmol is a releiver, so that could be hit or miss as trade value. But he looks to be a stud! Joe is not a wishful thinking Cub fan. I doubt he is a Cub fan at all. More like a Rays fan trying to still up trades that will not happen. If he was a Cub fan, he would know Hendry has made it clear Hill is off limits...PERIOD!
Posted by: studio179 | February 15, 2008 at 11:30 PM