Brian Roberts Rumors

Is anyone else just sick of this rumor? Why wont it just get done?!?!?!

Is it even possible to be sick of this little rumor when we had to deal with Santana and Bedard (to a lesser extent) all winter?

Okay, let me disclose this up front ... I am a long-suffering Orioles fan. I state this first because I realize that what I have to say is colored a bit by my bias as an Oriole fan. But most posts here are from a Cub perspective, so I wanted to have my say in the matter to.

First, for those of you Cubs fans that repeatedly say Brian Roberts is just an above-average 2nd baseman and not even a premier second baseman ... you are so short sighted. I guarantee you that should Roberts become a Cub (and I think this is nearly a surety, and only the exact players we get in return is yet to be determined), you will be the biggest Brian Roberts fan by the end of the 2008 season. Sure, if you look only at his batting average or slugging, it does not blow you away ... but you have to evaluate exactly why you are getting this player. He is one of the elite lead-off hitters in the game. Wonderful OBP, great spead, successfully steals 3rd base better than any in the game. He demonstrated this yesterday to your scouts in Florida when he manufactured a run all by himself in the first inning of the first Oriole grapefruit league game. And I can say this, on defense ... his range and steadfast performance and accuracy in making plays at 2nd base is amazing. It was a travesty that he didn't win the gold glove last year. Also, he is an amazing influence inside the clubhouse and wonderful in the community as well. In a year, you all will be saying the exact same things I am now.

Even though the Orioles are in rebuilding mode, I am deeply sorry to see Roberts leave the organization. I certainly don't want to see him traded, and certainly not for the grouping of second rate prospects that are being discussed. So although you Cub fans keep saying that you are giving up too much ... I maintain that you are not giving up enough ... after all, they are merely prospects ... and they don't even project to be of a star prospect caliber in the majors. I realize that you will think that I just value this player too much because I am an Oriole fan. But I did not feel this way about Bedard or Tejada ... I thought those deals were appropriate.

So, bottom line ... I would just assume let you whining Cub fans bypass this deal. I am happy keeping Roberts. And if they do decide they have to trade him, we can trade him in July when we will get a heck of a lot more than the Cubs are offering now.

Guy -

I am a long-time suffering Cubs fan so I feel your pain. Brian Roberts is a very good players. He is an excellent leadoff hitter and EXACTLY what I think the Cubs need to become a contender. That being said, he is not an ELITE player. He is very good for the position he plays and he is a very good leadoff hitter.

If the Cubs can get him by giving up Patterson, Gallagher and Ceda (not sure why this is Hendry's latest man crush) then I would be very excited. Those three for Roberts would be a steal for the Cubs. If the Cubs had to throw in Veal along with the other three I think the scale tips in the O's favor.

You never know what you are getting when prospects are involved. But when a team decides to start rebuilding that is the chance you take. All the players the O's would be getting are major league calibor. Just because they aren't TOP PROSPECTS doesn't make them any less valuable. Trust me, 90% of all TOP PROSPECTS don't pan out either.

"And how can a trade go from being an absolute steal, to being a win for the other side simply because Veal is added. Maybe it is just me, but I dont think Veal has that much impact on a trade to tip the scales from steal to loss."

Maybe a bit of an exageration on my side. But I just think if Hendry can get Roberts for 3 good prospects vs giving up 4 good prospects it is a pretty big difference. It doesn't have as much to do with Veal vs the number of prospects involved.

Guy,

I appreciate your opinion, although I do not agree with all of it. To say that Brian Roberts has a "wonderful OBP" could possibly be the funniest thing I have read in a long time. It's very easy to pick a year or two from every major leaguer and make a career out of it. He stole 50 bases last year, so he is now a prolific base stealer, right? Take out last year and he is averaging less than 30 bags a year. Is that prolific? Derrek Lee hit 46 HR's in 2006, should we expect that every year now? Is that fair for anyone involved?

You want to get a players true numbers, you take out his best and worst year and then look at everything. You do that with Roberts and see if he is still a superstar.

Yes, I hear that he is great in the community. He is also going to be the only Cub mentioned in the Mitchell Report. So he has that going for him.

The Orioles are rebuilding, and when teams rebuild, they do so with prospects. Prospects, to me, are a total numbers game. You try to eliminate any guesswork, but ultimately, it is a crapshoot. The Orioles are going to end up with Gallagher, Cedeno, and possibly Veal. There may also be a 4th prospect involved.

If Roberts was 27, had 5 years left on his contract, and had more consistant stats, I would say that you should expect more for him in a trade. But he is 30, he is inconsistant, and he has 2 years left on his contract. The players mentioned are more than reasonable for Roberts.

If I were the Cubs, I would personally give them Ceda and hold Gallagher. Ceda is a HUGE question mark, were Gallagher is not. If the O's really have a hard on for him, then pull Gallagher, give them Ceda, Veal and Cedeno, and lets all move on.

"McPhail suckered the M's and the Astros into those deal I hope Hendry doesnt do the same."

No, MacPhail asked for a fair offer in return for parting with an All-Star, and the Cubs will have to do the same.

I’m sure Cub fans will love Roberts. We like our lunch pail guys who bring energy and hard-nosed play. But with all due respect, I think Baltimore’s fans have let their fondness for Roberts overstate his value. The only thing that matters is market value. And no one is offering more than the Cubs are right now. It’s doubtful the market, barring injury, will increase as the season wears on. There is also the possibility that it will decrease. Another fallacy is this “all-star” for “all-star” thing. Gallagher may only have a 3rd starter ceiling but he’s also more likely than most to get there. A third starter that you will have control over for 6 years, who’ll likely give you 200 innings is worth 2 years of Roberts by himself. If you add Veal, you’ve got a guy with better stuff than Gallagher, a possible #2 type, a top 50 prospect last year -- but admittedly boom or bust: now you suddenly have the chance to add 2 talented starters for 6 years. Then take a flyer on an athletic, gifted SS as a throw in and hope the light goes on. Now you’ve got three possible long term contributors instead of 2 years of a guy who may make the difference between 95 losses and 100 losses. Despite the posturing, the value of Roberts to the Orioles on a rebuilding team is minimal. With few exceptions, no Baltimore fan even acknowledges the risk on the Cubs side. I mentioned a similar short term deal for 2 years of Mitch Williams nearly 20 years ago for a corner OF’er with no power and a lefty with a pedestrian fastball and “low ceiling”. Those 2 guys were Rafael Palmeiro and Jamie Moyer. The Cubs lost in the playoffs anyway that season and that deal set the Cubs back for years. There is risk on both sides, you don’t just keep piling prospects to minimize risk on one side and increase it on the other. That’s not how it’s done.

How would I be gloating in 2 or 3 years? At that stage, Roberts will be somewhere else and you will have a couple of former Cubs on your roster still. That is part of the point I am trying to make.

Roberts can stay there, and he for sure will be an Allstar again this year because each team needs to be represented. You are putting this kid on a pedestal that he honestly doesnt deserve to be on. Do you not have any other comments on his "wonderful OBP"?

Would I like Roberts on the Cubs roster this year? Of course I would, almost every Cubs fan with any sense would like him leading off. But if you think that we should give you 3 or 4 of our top prospects for him, then you are dreaming. Or smoking.

I forget who the O's fan that posted on a previous thread was, but he was obviously more educated on how this system works. The O's should expect to get a couple of MLB ready players and another lower level prospect. That's it. The O's are freeing up a decent amount of money, gaining more prospects, and doing a service to their supposed face of the franchise.

Oh, and speaking of gloating, how are you feeling right about now after the Traschel debacle last year? Pretty happy, right? That is how this thing works, you win some, you lose some.

Roberts is good, he isn't great. He means more to the Cubs than he would to most teams. He is probably worth three prospects, probably. Not four though, unless it was pure quantity and less quality. But, if you are talking about Gallagher/Veal/Cedeno or Gallagher/Ceda/Cedeno, that is MORE than he is worth, and you should be very pleased with that haul. I would consider both of those better than what you got for Tejada, and like someone said earlier, this is for 2 years of service time! Its not like he is 26 coming off 4 amazing years, he is 30 coming off two good years and some that we ok. I would love to have him, but the hauls that most O's fans keep talking about are closer to what you got for Bedard than what you got for Tejada. And its arguable who is even worth more between Tejada and Roberts. You would be getting 6 years of Gallagher, who will most certainly be an ML pitcher for awhile, whether that be as a #2 at some point or a #5 the whole time. either way, worth a good amount for control over 6 years. That alone should get you pretty happy, and the fact that you would add a guy like Veal, who I hate giving up, because he could be a great #2 or even 1 if all fell into place. Even if its only a 30% chance he does that, thats still 6 years of time that you control him, and what do you think that is worth?

Obviously this is a risk for the O's...but it is for the Cubs probably much more. Worse case scenario is that you get guys that all do nothing. Well, you still saved money and you probably lost 95 games instead of 91 next year. Who cares? The point is that you are looking at 2010 at the very, very earliest, and Roberts won't be there at that point anyway. They need to take a risk and get what they can. They aren't going to do better than a trade that *could* net them a #3 for 6 years, a #2 for 6 years, and 3 or 4 years of a starting SS. If it doesn't work out...oh no. You gained money and got a better draft pick.

First off, it turns out we didn't really sucker Houston and probably didn't sucker Seattle either. The top prospect we got from Houston most likely has a torn labrum and that is a career ending injury for most people. That is why we got four players plus him and with Adam Jones, he is already showing why Seattle didn't like him to the point of insisting we take him in the Bedard deal. He doesn't hustle and just expects to make great plays instead of making them happen. Not exactly superstar quality. Surprisingly, it's been Costanzo and Albers that have impressed so far.

Second, why does everyone assume Roberts won't sign long term? He would sign with a contending team like the Cubs, so stop whining about that. He wants to win and he definately has a chance to do that in Chicago.

Third, stop using his injury against him. Those two great years out of him are what he is. He had a serious injury and it took him awhile to recover and that affected his stats. He's automatic for 35 steals and will probably get you more. As for the age, he keeps himself in great condition and Ichiro has proved that you can still steal 30 bags and be a great lead-off hitter well into your thirties. It amazes me how often people look the other way about his injury and just say those stats during that time period are really who he is and he's inconsistant. Please, you've never seen him play. Roberts is worth every penny of this potential deal and would probably finish his career in a Cubbies uniform.

Regardless of who is right or wrong here about O's fans expecting too much in return for Roberts - it is very apparent that Roberts wants to go to Chicago really bad to play for a competing club. He well knows that Cubs are scouting him right now. Today, they are in 3rd inning of second game of the spring. Yesterday, the only bright spot for the O's was Roberts play. Today, by the 3rd inning, he has also gotten 2 hits (double and a single), stolen 3rd base twice, and scored 2 runs. So he now has 4 stolen bases in 7 innings of play. He has too much class to ask to be traded, so he's just making the Cubs FO salivate by his play right now. Wish I could watch/hear this game on MLB.com. Oh well...

Sesshomaru, comparing Roberts with Ichiro is a definite stretch. Ichiro gets on base far more often, Roberts is never going to get to that level, and thus won't have the opportunity to steal ~40 bases per year. Last year was a great season for him, but the only way he'll maintain that level is if he's in a better lineup.

That being said, I still feel like we don't need a daily Roberts update.

Oops, didn't mean to post that twice.

LOL Sharkey ... "if Angelos loves him, he has to set him free ..."

Very good and very funny!!

Well, I was really only trying to elude to Ichiro's durability and how well he takes care of himself. Roberts will never be Ichiro, I agree, but they both keep themselves in top physical condition. Even at 34, he is still one of the elite in the league with no signs of slowing down. Ichiro is generally good for between 30-40 steals a year and doesn't get injured. The injury to Roberts was unavoidable and wasn't due to lack of conditioning. There's no reason to believe Roberts couldn't maintain his lead-off numbers for five or more years.

I doubt Marshall will turn out to be better than Veal. He's 13-17 with a 4.83 ERA in the majors. He's a back of the rotation starter on an NL team, he would be less than that on an AL East team. Keep him if he's so good. :) Veal was what, a top 50 prospect until his unfortunate situation which affected his performance but then finished strong, yes? He's no longer a top 50 which means he would be a steal and carry much less value than Marshall with more potential. I'd take Veal over Marshall any day.

Veal, Ceda, Marshall, Patterson. Done.

Cubs fans would love to deal Marshall but the Os cant take him. This thread is a one team trade negotiation.

I see both sides of this coin. I hear what the O's Fans are Saying. Base has been involved in these dicussions since the beginning of time. I also hear what Cubs fans are saying. Trying to put my bias aside, espcially when looking at what the O's got for Bedard and Tejada makes its hard for me to swallow giving up Gallagher, Veal, Cedeno and... just because Angelos has a man crush.

If they want a 4th then its Patterson and the Cubs should get a risk/reward guy back. Some 19-20 year old who has "tools".

I just don't think the Cubs should have to pay a kings randsom just because Angelos likes how Roberts looks in his pants.

There are other lead off men the cubs can go after.

I would also be open to a 3 way trade including the Twins. The twins may have a player the Os' covet and the Cubs can send them Murton who can play DH and LF for them. Then its Gallagher and Cedeno, plus the player the Twins have. Maybe Catcher Jose Morales.

As of right now the Cubs are slight favorites in the Central division. With a trade involving roberts, the Cubs would be considered the class of the NL! ahead of the mets, phillies, dbacks and LA. with the added depth that roberts gives us by allowing derosa become a utility player again, we could have the best bench in the league. Ward,derosa,murton etc.
The pen is shaping up as one of the very best hard throwing pens in the MLB! Everyone has nasty stuff.
Roberts improves our DEF even more than we already did this offseason. All 3 outfielders have strong arms with pie and fukudome being able to catch everthing hit near them. With the addition of roberts, every spot on the field is covered with top notch DEF except soriano! The power will be back this year from all the regulars and SOTO is awsome! bring it on baby!

I think my FINAL offer for Roberts would be

Gallagher/Ceda or Veal/Patterson or Cedeno

And that is a Cubs fan bending as far as I can bring myself to do so...

Or maybe he doesn't Devlsh, and McPhail just wants a chance to get his scouts out there and check these guys out, so he can decide who he wants after they know more about them. He has no reason to rush, and hasn't (to say the least)...but that doesn't mean he has rejected ANY offer so far for sure. All it means is that he wants to take a look and see what he is picking from...

let us not forget that teams always scout one another during spring training. it is how teams get a good look at other teams young talent for the future, not just for a possible trade now.

i still dont like the idea of giving up any of our young pitchers that can help this team. if we get to the postseason, ceda, hart, petrick, gallagher, pignatello, maestri...etc could all help this team. if a bullpen is solid enough where lou can pull a starter in the 6th inning of a postseason start to save them for their next start and still feel that the bullpen wont blow the game because of its depth... that is immeasurable.

Need to, or want to? Its not hard to imagine that McPhail would like to send his scouts to get a look at a guy like Ceda, or Veal, or Patterson, Cedeno etc...I would if I were him frankly.

If I were to prognosticate, we'll have to give up either Gallagher or Ceda for this deal to get done. A modest price to pay for a 2B with elite SB ability and an excellent offensive catalyst. You can't get something for nothing in today's world unless you are the Lakers.

Do we need Roberts? No. Would he help? Definately. He will add more speed and versatility to the team. We'd be the deepest team in the NL, no question.

Why be apprehensive?

They want what is perceived as our weakness--back-end guy(s) with upside like Gallagher and closer/setup guys like Ceda. I really hope Dempster pans out and can get us in the ballpark of 12 wins and, most importantly, consistency. If that's the case, I'm less reluctant to part ways with guys like Gall and Ceda, especially since they don't project as #1 type players.

Here's what I think is going on:

Cubs are assessing the performance of guys like Dempster as a SP and marketing players like Cedeno and Gallagher. Then, we will see things shake out.

Coincidence or Strategy?

Yesterday,Gallagher pitched the 3rd and 4th inning (2K, 1R) and Ceda pitched 2/3 inn. (2K, 2R). I'm sure the O's scouts were impressed with Ceda's velocity and his K ability. Also, Cedeno didn't look too bad either.

I think, either way this all turns out, it's a win-win situation for us.

Veal and ceda is a start along with 1 to 2 others. Roberts is a solid ball player and I know the Cubs will have a way better line up with Roberts leading off, what team wouldn't!Roberts with the cubs in a weak division, The sky would be the limit. Roberts is an allstar and giving junk in return or Gallagher being the best prospect in return is f...... crazy. I'd rather the O's keep him.

CR, I understand Roberts will be dealt and he deserves to play for a winner.I don't feel Roberts being traded for a prospect with 4th to 5th starter stuff benefits the O'S.What about midseason,Roberts having a Roberts yr.A contending team will anti up more of what Baltimore needs.Baltimore has a decent amount of young pitching.I think the O's could make some noise in the east in about three yrs if some of thier young players pan out and stay healthy.Everyone's opinion of Robert's worth will be different and if i were the Orioles i would i wouldn't settle for less.It's strange why everyone says the deal is done and Roberts will BE a cub.Is there another team interested in him.Who wouldn't want Roberts?

bjsguess, these kind of analysis make me laugh. One team is said to be great and all their flaws are excused away, one team is said to be mediocre and the truth is stretched beyond recognition in order to make them look worse than they are. I'm going to decide the Mets are mediocre so I'll make an analysis, bjsguess-style:
The Mets are overrated. Santana lost a few miles on his fastball last year and the fact that he gave up 33 hrs should be a concern; it's often a sign that a pitcher's performance will begin to decline. Besides, they lost Glavine and his 13 wins and 200 innings. So Santana might give them an extra 5-6 wins and 20 more innings. Might. Whoopee. Oliver Perez came out of nowhere, he was a fluke and won't repeat that year again. Pedro Martinez will spend another year on the DL and even if he doesn't, the guy tosses 85 mph fastballs now anyway - he's not a HOF pitcher anymore and hasn't been since he became a Met. And isn't his arm barely attached? Carlos Delgado is 37 and he didn't have an off year, he's probably done. Jose Reyes was figured out by the league last year. Pitchers know how to get him out now. He'll continue to put up good, but not astonsishing numbers for the rest of his career. Their leftfielder is 41 years old and will probably spend most of the year on the DL - aren't his legs barely attached? He won't duplicate last year's numbers. They have a fourth OF'er, Ryan Church, starting in RF. Their starting catcher hit .235 and that's a good year for him. And the Mets didn't have a better year. They stayed home in October. Their collapses at the end of the year is evidence that the team isn't mentally tough enough to compete with the big boys. Phew, that was easy. Pick a team, any team and you can make them sound as good or as bad as you want them to.

crunchy1, well done.

Growing up all I would hear is how the loser Cubs or SCRUBS faltered down the stretch in '69 to the Mets. What a choke...collapse, which was true. They wore out and, hey, did not make the playoffs. The Mets have an even bigger choke and collapse of all time last year and a Met's fan puts it in parenthesis as if a minor footnote. This, while posting the Cubs have question marks. Yes, we do. All teams do. I suspect you have some question marks of your own in Queens.

“To say that Brian Roberts has a "wonderful OBP" could possibly be the funniest thing I have read in a long time. It's very easy to pick a year or two from every major leaguer and make a career out of it.”

What an asinine statement from someone who will probably tell us that 32 year old Derrek Lee is a 300/400-ish hitter because he has done it exactly two times in non-consecutive years. Or that 32YO Alfonso Soriano should have a 900-ish OPS because he has done it all of two times in his career. Or that 33 YO Mark DeRosa is a solid 2B because has produced fair statistics the last two years. Or 32 YO Lilly is a 120-ish ERA+ guy because he has randomly done it 3 times over his career. Or Geovany Soto is a solid prospect because he has produced positive results exactly once over his 7 year professional career. Or Sean Marshall is a solid young starter because he can produce for the first 5 games he pitches each year before he implodes.

Yet 30YO Roberts isnt a OBP guy because he has only produced a 370+ OBP for 16.5 of the last 18 months. Yeah, his OBP was over .370 in mid-August of 2006 as well, it was really his last month that created the final overall line difference... And 30YO Roberts isnt a prolific SB threat because he only averaged 30-ish SB on a team with a “sit back and wait for the 3-run HR” mindstate up until last year when he all of a sudden stole many more.

“You want to get a players true numbers, you take out his best and worst year and then look at everything. You do that with Roberts and see if he is still a superstar.”

The answer is yes; he would still be a “superstar” for the position because of the position scarcity. Taking out his best and worst full-time seasons would be taking out 2004 & 2005, leaving us with the last two where he has been exactly that outside of the last month of 2006. The likes of Cedeno and Gallagher and Veal combined over their careers still might not provide the value that 2 seasons worth of Roberts alone will to the Cubs; they are prospects with questions and a lot of learning still to do. Is it a fair trade? Possibly, but all the “fair” stuff we have heard rumored previously hasn’t gotten it done so…

Bjsguess,

Yes, you had one guy that had a down year last year in Carlos Delgado. By no means did Jose Reyes have a "down year". Afterall, his 2007 season was a bit better than his 2005 season... and not far off from his 2006 season. In the end, what we saw of Reyes last year, is probably what we should expect from him this year... with maybe a slightly better BA and HR totals.

However, the Cubs got down years from Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Jaques Jones, and Alfonso Soriano. And yes, these are actual down years and not a mere step down from a career season like that you pointed out with Reyes. We also had 0 production from behind the plate and minimal production at SS, and RF. The only position you guys struggled with last year was 1B. It appears we may have fixed the hole at C. I believe we'll see a better performance from Theriot at SS. Right now, who knows what will happen in CF? Oh, and Fukudome looks great thus far in RF.

Offensively, you guys may have an edge right now. However, the acquisition of Roberts would put our boys at a closer pace to your boys.

Pitching? Yeah, you have Santana. Honestly, if Zambrano manages to keep his head out of his rear for the majority of the season... our ace can and will compete with your ace. John Maine looked pretty good last year, but so did our youngster Rich Hill... and both have improved at about the same rate. Perez is an enigma. Will he pitch again like he did last year and earlier in his career... or will he falter back to the 5.85 and 6.55 ERA's of 2006/07? If he steps up and picks up where he left off last year... he's a bit better option than Lilly. If he reverts to his previous form... you'll be calling for his head by the end of May. Pedro? Can he really pitch anymore without his arm flying further than the ball? Will he be even so much as a shadow of his former self? He and Jon Lieber sit in about the same camp right now... but Lieber is actually competing for a job while Pedro is guaranteed one. El Duque doesn't match up to whomever our 5th starter will be (be it Dempster, Lieber, Marquis, or one of our prospects).

Pitching wise, best-case scenario for you guys... your top 4 guys match up well with our top 4. Your 5th, not a chance! Worst-scenario, Santana and Maine wind up being the only truly worthwhile pitchers in your rotation... and you end up around .500 maybe.

Now let's talk bullpen. Wood, Howry, and Marmol make up one of the most dominant bullpen back-ends in the game. If Wood can keep his arm attached to his body, he'll be dominant as a closer. If Scott Eyre can come back from a true down year, we can pull our starters after 6 innings... and very few lineups in the game will have a shot at catching up. Let's also not forget that Michael Wuertz was 3rd in ML last year in stranding inherited runners... right behind Carlos Marmol (they were 1 & 2 in the NL). Right there are 5 solid relievers. This isn't including the possibility of Carmen Pignatiello coming up and mowing down lefties, and Kevin Hart continuing on his middle relief success of last year. Nor does it begin to evaluate the potential of Jose Asciano, Tim Lahay, or Billy Petrick as middle relievers. You guys do have a solid bullpen with Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, and Smith. If Jorge Sosa ever lives up to his hype from TB... you may have as strong of a bullpen as we do, but that's a big "may".

Right now, Bjsguess, our teams are pretty damned close in terms of overall talent and skill if the proven vets play like they are capable of for the entire year. Let us get Roberts, and that'll tip the scales slightly in our favor. Let Pie have a breakout season in CF, and those scales tip even more in our favor.