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« Linden Doesn't Have Spot With A's | Main | Giants Plan To Keep Pitchers »
9 Reasons General Managers Make the Decisions They Do
Guest article by David Chase of Brock for Broglio.
1. Skill Set
With more teams holding 12 pitchers instead of the traditional 11, those last 21-25 spots are increasingly vital. Specialists, who excel in one area (e.g., vs. LHP/RHP, defense, or speed) are more valuable than a player who might be just-ok in all aspects of the game.
2. Age
Players with good minor league track records, (pre age 26) will usually receive a “longer look” than veterans on the wrong side of the age curve. The prospective upside, and the value of cost-control, far outweighs the risk of underperformance; especially for teams with little chance at competing. Apparently, Sabean hasn’t gotten the memo yet.
3. Track Record
Often, fans overreact to down years. Most batting statistics don’t become reliable until 500 plate appearances. If a players on the right side of the age curve, and is relatively healthy, down years are usually only a product of luck. Don’t be surprised when your front office continues to give a player opportunity, at the expense of a utility player, who might’ve excelled in said players absence.
4. Observational Analysis
It’s not always about the statistics. Some players have talent that hasn’t materialized into production. Teams will continue to give raw athletes--whose tools rate well on their scout’s 20-80 scales--chances to succeed. The best organizations are those that are aware of the strengths and weaknesses of both evaluation methodologies, and integrate them seamlessly.
5. Service Time
Miguel Cabrera is likely to break the $200MM barrier; he earned a major league contract as soon as he deserved one. Other players are often not as lucky. There’s not much incentive for an organization to rush its prospects through the minor leagues. Being held down one additional year too many, can literally cost a player several guaranteed years and many millions.
6. Organizations Direction
It’s important for organizations to take a frank stance on whether or not they believe they can compete. Being lukewarm is far too costly. Opportunity is valuable; wasting it on expensive veterans that have no future is counterproductive. Successful minor leaguers--who’ve been neglected of opportunity--become valuable assets to teams not presently competing.
7. Risk Management
Developing major league prospects is a risky proposition; especially when those prospects can be traded for proven commodity. This ties in with #6; an average market team---that can compete--is wise to shed itself of its prospects and their inherit risk. Prospects have far more value to a team in a rebuilding cycle, which have no choice but to carry the burden of that risk.
8. It’s Not Always the GM
Sometimes a GM is merely a public figure for a decision they have no control over, or influence on. I read an article about a general manager who consistently refused to speak to a player’s agent out of lack of interest. The ambitious agent contacted the owner directly, and a deal was struck without the GMs consent. I wouldn’t be surprised if these types of scenarios are prevalent.
The pressure of instant success--from the group cutting the checks--can also influence the GM’s better judgment, and as a by-product; suppress the long term viability of the franchise.
9. Intangibles Matter
In an age where there’s seemingly less of a market for unquantifiable skill sets, devoted ballplayers, club house leaders, and hard workers still find themselves on 25 man rosters. Next time you wonder why Nick Punto is still employed; think of the intangibles he might bring to the table. Mike Sweeney is on the verge of a major league contract for no other reason.
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Interesting points. Here's how I'll get it to relate to Brian Roberts and the Cubs. Factor's 3,6,7 and 8 apply. The Cubs should give Pie a better shot (3) if they really think he's going to be amazing. If they think he'll be serviceable in the future then trade him. 6 & 7 are where the Orioles failed until recently. They were trying to win when they couldn't and expensive losing is much worse than youngster losing. Number 8 applies in the opposite for Angelos in that he might step in too much for his own good. Letting the baseball guys make the decisions would go a long way to making the team respectable.
Posted by: CubFan81 | March 18, 2008 at 08:58 AM
How'd you know as I was reading this I was questioning why the Twin then keep Nick Punto?
Posted by: TwinChargers | March 18, 2008 at 09:05 AM
There's a huge reason that was not included in the above list.
Longevity, or what I call shelf-life. Most GMs aren't going to be in place five years from now, so it doesn't behoove them to develop rookies at the big league level at the expense of the team's current win/loss record. That's why it makes more sense for them (though not necessarily for the team) to play for the here and now rather than look ahead. The manager's fate is also usually tied to the team's win/loss record so he'll usually push for the same "win now" approach. The established GMs (Beane, Epstein, etc.) can afford to have a long term perspective.
Posted by: Devlsh | March 18, 2008 at 09:45 AM
That is a good a list. Astros/White Sox/Giants GMs should all read the section about having bad teams. Being lukewarm has killed them and will continue to kill them this year.
Time to cut what you can and blow the thing up.
Posted by: bjsguess | March 18, 2008 at 11:00 AM
I feel sorry for Punto, poor guy is always getting picked on in these articles.
Devish, you make a good point . "10" is better than "9" too.
Posted by: brockforbroglio | March 18, 2008 at 11:45 AM
devish, it was in there, just not as in depth or as prominent. see the last paragraph of #8.
"The pressure of instant success--from the group cutting the checks--can also influence the GM’s better judgment, and as a by-product; suppress the long term viability of the franchise."
Posted by: greg | March 18, 2008 at 12:26 PM
I too think there should be a #10, but it’s a bit different of one. Its that always prevalent “I can do it” mentality, the one where failed player on team-A is looked at and the brain starts thinking “well, I see so&so tendency/problem and know that I can fix it and turn him around and get that hidden production”. It’s the reason that a failed closer is seemingly tried in the closer role on another 4-5 different teams before the end of his career. The reason that a pitcher who does nothing but get shelled can always get find that MiL w/invite deal to another camp. The reason that Jose Cruz Jr is still in the league, about ready to extend his career with like his 10th team! Why every GM thinks they can “fix” something that 3-4 other GMs couldn’t is beyond me, but man they are prone to make the same mistakes over and over again in this giant circle of stupidity fueled by arrogance…
I guess it is a semi-combination of a couple of your points above, but I think Arrogance/Stupidity/”I can do it” should be set aside as on its own, and would be my #10 atleast :)
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 18, 2008 at 01:35 PM