Atkins, Holliday Wait For Big Payday

you're right he shouldn't get a ridiculous deal for playing in Coors, he should get a ridiculous deal for being a stud.

@ gogopalehose

Matt's numbers get a boost from playing at Coors, no doubt, but there's also the fact that he is a great player. You don't get the batting title from only hitting well at home. Besides, with the humidor, Coors isn't the most hitter-friendly park in the NL right now - Citi Bank Park in Philly is. More HRs, higher BA and ERA...it plays more like Wrigley with the wind blowing out, especially with short fences all around. Matt deserves a big payday, though I really hope his loyalty to the team wins out (he's a Colorado draftee and has come up through the organization) and that he'll stick around to help build a good team.

Holliday's splits are pretty dramatic, but they're evening out as he matures as a hitter. My guess is that the Rockies will wait till next offseason, then deliver a huge deal to keep him as the centerpiece.
As for Atkins start_wearing_purple might be on to something...I have to wonder if they'd even consider flipping him for a frontline starter down the stretch as early as this year. They can't keep Stewart waiting too much longer.

It's not just the park, people (although it definitely helps)

Happy Holliday's splits:
1.157/.859
298 points higher at Coors.

Splits for all Rockies hitters:
.849/.727. 122 point advantage.

Bear in mind the fact that Holliday's splits are massively skewing this number. The rest of the team would have have an advantage of around 98 points. Deduct the normal home/road factor* (24 OPS point during the 2007 season for all NL teams)and this comes down to an actual park impact of 75 points for non-Holliday Rockies.

Visiting teams
.739 (vs. Rockies in their home park)/.765 (Coors)

Once again, we do need to adjust this for the normal home/road factor. A team would expect to have a negative 24 point split in a road park, so having a +26 means the actual park impact was a +50.

Holliday's split difference even dwarfs those of Tulowitzki (+240) and Atkins (+163).

What does this tell us? Holliday is a craftsman who has tailored his game to the park more so than other players - and would likely be able to do this in other parks as well. I'm not suggesting that he would put up a 1.157 OPS in another park, but I am suggesting that he would have a massive home/road split in a neutral park.

* Regarding the "normal home/road factor" - the average NL team posted an OPS 24 points higher at home than on the road. If home/road splits were all about the park impacts, we would expect this to be 0. This 24 point home advantage is likely due to a combination of factors: home well a player is tailored to the park (although you would think most teams would try to get players well suited to their park), being more rested at home (traveling during road trips can take a toll), being at home with wife and kids, adrenaline from playing in front of a home crowd, etc.

I'm thinking any Holliday deal would have to be heavily back loaded and have a big signing bonus.

Let's say hypothetically Holliday agrees to an 18M annual contract, which is a low estimate. They'll be paying 70Mish for Holliday, Helton, Cook, Tulo, Corpas, Hawpe, and Francis (assuming they exercise Hawpe's and Francis's options). They haven't had that kind of payroll since 2001.

The Rockies are making smart moves now, but they're going to need a lot more money to pull this off.

Yes I used Cot's contracts. And Helton's option is 2012, in 2011 he gets a raise to 19.1M

on a different note is helton really signed through 2011? bet they wish they had that one back. he cant even put the numbers up in coors anymore. i will say it once again. the rockies should lock up their own pitching and then get hitters under big contracts before they start playing in the thin air. jeff francis is a stud and they got a great deal on him because his numbers are inflated because of the field. that guy can really pitch. they need to let their hitters walk because they will automatically be overvalued.

Joel - I never said that Holliday would turn another park into his own Coors Field. In fact, I said that he would NOT duplicate his Coors numbers (1.157) there. Not did I say that he was in the class of A-Rod or Pujols.

However, I do think he would have a .950-1.000 OPS in a neutral park. Add that to his .859 road split, and you have a .900 - .930 OPS guy.

And, for whatever reason, Holliday does dominate at Coors. For 81 games a year, he puts the Rockies on his back - his home stats are MUCH better than anyone else on the team. If he can help us win a very good percentage of games at home, that puts us closer to a playoff berth.

Will we have to overpay for Holliday? Yeah, probably. But I still like it better than the alternative of letting him walk.

Yeah, Helton's deal looks worse every year. It was signed at a time of escalating salaries, and Helton's back woes (and age) have seriously sapped his strength.

24 is actually the league average differential, 50 is a Coors thing. Why not add this to the .859? Because I think Holliday is considerably better than average at tailoring his game to his park - as evidenced by his splits.

What other explanation is there for the fact that he has a +297 during the last 3 years, whereas another right handed power hitter (Atkins) has a +156? I mention Atkins because he's a righty, and thus the park should impact them similarly. If you want to throw lefties into the mix, Helton has a +177 and Hawpe a +187.

I think he would have a considerably better home/road differential than other players on his team, regardless of park.