Frank Thomas Signs With A's

Depending if Jason Giambi bounces back, that contract could go down as one of the worst 5 ever. $120M for 2 great seasons, 2 good (but short) seasons and 2 absolutely terrible seasons. I just don't see him 1.) bouncing back, or 2.) staying healthy.

The guy went 6 straight seasons hitting .290 or better with the A's and only did it once with the Yankees.

Honestly, if Frank Thomas could be had on the cheap, the Yankees should look at bringing him in, and just pretend their wasting that $20+M and $5M buyout on him. It's not like they don't have enough LH hitters in the first place.

I swear, if the Mariners seriously refuse to pick Thomas up, Bavasi's gotta win that "worst GM" poll just on the strength of Vidro-as-DH alone.

asm, before you bash Sexson you might want to consider that he's a second half player, career splits pre and post all-star games for the Mariners in batting order.

First Half vs. Second Half

1)Ichiro .338/.387/.447 vs. .324/.366/.422
2)Lopez .281/.313/.427 vs. .246/.279/.337
3)Ibanez .282/.342/.475 vs. .289/.348/.471
4)Beltre .262/.318/.430 vs. .281/.337/.491
5)Vidro .307/.371/.461 vs. .292/.353/.434
6)Sexson .246/.328/.478 vs. .284/.366/.559
7)Wilkerson .255/.361/.458 vs. .241/.343/.435
7)Morse .341/.416/.455 vs. .268/.322/.351
8)Johjima .281/.329/.436 vs. .288/.319/.426
8)Burke .300/.349/.400 vs. .319/.378/.397
9)Betancourt .278/.301/.382 vs. .287/.310/.421
B)Bloomquist .257/.315/.333 vs. .264/.321/.360

You can see that the real problem is going to be in RF, especially when Morse starts warying down. Hopefully his offseason conditioning will prevent that, but he's still not a starter and Wilkerson isn't either.

I didn't add Cairo's stats because I don't think he'll even be with the team in two months let alone through the trade deadline. As for the other platoon at catcher, both are ridiculously consistent and that helps.

You're right Thomas would help the offense out but Richie isn't the problem. He's already on course for 24 2B and 40 HR with a .349 OBP, he'll probably be over .400 OBP when the season ends and he's clearly a second half player.

He'll be good for 40-50 bombs, how much does that go for?! Oh and based on Ibanez having 5 more hits and 8 more at-bats, if Sexson goes 5 for his next 8, he'll be hitting .306, so it's still early.

Vidro at DH could be overlooked if it wasn't for him batting 5th in the lineup making the offense look that much more inferior. He may not hit a lot of homeruns, but his RBI total should be near 100 by seasons end.

Unfortunately he'll never see that number for the same reason he won't be a Mariner next season... That ridiculous vesting option will kill his season. Thomas for Vidro is really a money move, not an increase in offense.

The reality is for Thomas to improve the offense, Vidro would have to play the field every day and there's no place he could last except 1B and Sexson would be worse than Dunn in the outfield, plus it would necessitate moving Ibanez to RF, yikes!

The best thing for this team is to trade Vidro for whatever they can get and if we get a sack of baseballs good enough for BP, than we came out ahead in the deal. Thomas inserted into DH, which makes the team better next year (more cap. room).

The next logical move is to bring back Griffey to play RF or to promote Balentien, but Morse should be replacing Cairo as the 2nd utility stud. Wilkerson should be dealt to a team in need of left-handed pop who can overlook his lack of average. Maybe Tampa Bay?

As for the total team, they are much better in the second half except for Lopez, but his brother died last year around July or August and that killed his focus last year and the first year he played 30+ more games than he's used to, so it's hard to tell what he'll do, he's only 24 years old.

I saw the Mariners get better and better against the Angels as the season wore on and it seems as though Anaheim is a first half team that fades, so I think there'll be substantial gap in the standings if Seattle can keep it close through the first two months of the season.

Again, Thomas makes any team better, as long as there's a place for him to play that gets his bat in the lineup. The real issue facing Seattle is RF though and that's not going away. If you see Griffey or Balentien in RF regularly by the end of May, you can punch Seattle's ticket to the post-season. Thomas doesn't guarantee it alone though.

The Railcats offered Thomas a deal too. I just don't think Frank's ego will permit him to move from college back down to high school, so to speak. Especially because it's in his old ChiTown haunts, instead of people being happy to see him, they'd shake their heads, frown and ask themselves, "what the hell happened to that guy. He used to be major-league quality. Now this?!" Frank does not want to sit in his favorite restaurants/clubs in ChiTown and get those types of looks from people. Even if it's only in Frank's head, he'll still suspect them. He wants to end his baseball playing days in the bigs and apparently does not particularly need the extra income. Still, it would make sense for him to play for a lower team for a while just to keep some momentum going with his swing mechanics and to keep his real game instincts sharp. I wouldnt' think the HOF would deduct points from Frank's legacy for accepting a deal like the Railcats offered, knowing that Frank was just trying to keep his game sharp for the day some MLB team called his agent to talk business.

BaseballGuru, you've got to be the most optimistic Mariners fan on the face of the earth. If only your confidence could carry over to the team itself....you'd be in for another 116 win season, only to fold in the ALCS.
I like your enthusiam and research, but what's on paper doesn't always translate to the field. Their only signing/trade that has lived up to expectations in recent years is Ichiro. OK, I give...throw in Carlos Silva's 4 starts, but that's all.
The Big Hurt will end up back in Oakland, no doubt about it.

"So... Thomas looks finished, bats around .150 for three weeks, gets released and is snapped back up within three days... yet nobody has any use for Barry Bonds. Yeah, nothing about that smells, does it?"

Bonds comes with a mountain of baggage. Thomas doesn't. Thomas will sign for a lower salary too, since he's already being paid by the Jays. I think it's good business, not "collusion" or whatever buzzword you want to throw around.

I was really hoping Clement would have come to Baltimore in the Bedard deal.

Thomas needs to stay in the AL. Thomas would not have to worry about being a PH with the Reds. Dusty loves those vets and Votto Hatteburg or anyone else would not see much playing time. Crazy as it sounds.

"Bonds comes with a mountain of baggage. Thomas doesn't. Thomas will sign for a lower salary too, since he's already being paid by the Jays. I think it's good business, not "collusion" or whatever buzzword you want to throw around."

Yes, absolutely right, teams neglecting to sign a guy who will be chasing 3000 hits, is the all time home run king, will bring people out to watch him play every night, and continually posts video game like OBP's and can still slug with the best of 'em are just making good business moves. Good logic.

"Yes, absolutely right, teams neglecting to sign a guy who will be chasing 3000 hits, is the all time home run king, will bring people out to watch him play every night, and continually posts video game like OBP's and can still slug with the best of 'em are just making good business moves. Good logic."

I didn't say he couldn't hit. NOBODY has said that. I said he's not worth the trouble he'd bring to the team.

Is it just me, or is the "clubhouse cancer" objection to Bonds a total crock? What does it actually mean? I want one person to give me a concrete example, a worst-case scenario, of how Bonds' "bad attitude" will offset the benefits of league-leading OPS and nightly home runs.

I'm with you NRMax, as a Mets fan I'd run him out in left field tonight if it were up to me.

But will he really act like a snob? I know he's not Mr. Friendly, but these analysts make it seem like he'd strut into the Tampa Bay dugout, shove Carl Crawford over a bench, slap Evan Longoria in the face, and take a dump on home plate. I don't think he'd have any real or lasting negative impact on a big league clubhouse.

Bonds by the Bay? - Los Angeles Times

A's owner Lew Wolff declined to say whether he might pursue Bonds.

* http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/la...c=DOWN+THE+LINE

"I didn't say he couldn't hit. NOBODY has said that. I said he's not worth the trouble he'd bring to the team."

No, you didnt say that. You said not signing Bonds is a good business decision. That is simply wrong. Any time you can bring in a guy who is chasing 3000 hits, 800 home runs, its going to help business, no matter how you try to spin it and no matter what baggage he brings. He fills the seats. Ask Peter Magowan how Bonds was for business. I am pretty sure nobody would be showing up to watch them the last 5 years if Barry wasnt there.

I still dont buy it. I dont think Frank Thomas is better for business then Barry Bonds even if he costs 5 to 6 million less then Bonds. You are telling me a team like Fla or some other team who cant draw, and has no real playoff aspirations this year brings in Bonds, going for 3000 hits, possibly 800 HR next year, it wont create more of a buzz then Frank Thomas?

"Just go back to coloring the Easter eggs with your crayons you big baby! Know when you lost! This is the third time I've had to explain it to you and it feels a little like being a high schooler whooping an 8 year olds ass and he won't stop getting up!"

Okay, first of all, what is this thing that you have explained to me 3 times. I am pretty sure that I have only directly responded to you once or twice, and this is the first one your posts addressed to me, so I find it hard to believe that you have explained anything to me 3 times already. And also, you used to beat up 8 year olds when you were in high school? Damn. Maybe thats why you get so angry and try to bully people into accepting your ignorant and dreamworld idea's and predictions by using personal attacks and methods of trying to embarrass me.

And oh yeah, why did you dedicate half of your post to analyzing my intelligence? I mean, was there something specific that led you to believe that I dont understand english well? I still am a bit confused as to why you listed the digits inbetween 40 and 50, thats another one you havent explained yet. Or was you insulting my intelligence based on nothing just a mere example of (oh, how did you put it) you using an exclusion of facts and some random statistics to take a stance on an extremely weak arguement without a leg to stand on, I believe were your words.

Still incredibly ironic that you actually used the sarcasm bit about a)using random stats and b)exlcuding the facts and c)trying to argue a point where you have no leg to stand on, when right here in front of me you did all of those things to support your Beltre/Sexson arguements.

"You are telling me a team like Fla or some other team who cant draw, and has no real playoff aspirations this year brings in Bonds, going for 3000 hits, possibly 800 HR next year, it wont create more of a buzz then Frank Thomas?"
Maybe a few more fans, but a winning team brings in more fans than Bonds by himself. And FL is a bad example... nobody goes to see them anyway. :)

Is there a tradition in baseball of not disclosing information about which teams made offers that were declined? (Like in poker where you keep your cards secret when you fold so that the other players can't count cards or glean info about your playing strategy even after the hand has been won.) Will we ever know which team was the "mystery team" courting Thomas? And was it the Railcats?

“Now onto something less petty than drudging up previous threads cause you can't comprehend the satistics... I even errored on the side of ineptness and you could swallow the pill that Adrian Beltre will be in the hall of fame!”

uhh, you errored on the side of moronic is what you did… I mean:
“He'll be good for 40-50 bombs, how much does that go for?! Oh and based on Ibanez having 5 more hits and 8 more at-bats, if Sexson goes 5 for his next 8, he'll be hitting .306, so it's still early.”

Now, we cant comprehend the “statistics”, right? He was at .217/.349/.478, 15 H in 69 AB at the time of you writing that. Had he gone 5/8 like you said it would take, it would have looked like this: 78 AB, 20 H ~ .256 BA. So how the F* do you come up with .306? Ironically he went 0-fer later that day, and instead of getting over that .300 mark he watched his line drop to .205/.333/.452/.785. Whats is it going to take now to be over 300 now, “guru”… Really, please enlighten us with your superior understanding of statistics!!! ***sigh***

But see, that’s the kind of crap that we have to deal with when you are involved. You make statements that are just blatantly incorrect, but you’ll go off for hours as if you know what you are talking about. And then, if we don’t just accept your incorrect bull, you try to call people names and question their intelligence. But a person who cant A) Add two stat-lines or B) divide 2 numbers is questioning other peoples intelligence? Really? Wow…

“The argument was lost the moment you compared contracts issued to people at points in their careers where they were 10 years apart in age. In addition:”

Ok, just a quick reminder of something ~ you were the one who compared Beltre to Posada!!! Are you too stupid to even grasp that? No, we were not the ones comparing Posada to Beltre; that was you… Yeah, see we were the ones asking how you could compare the two since they have a whole, uhh, nothing in common. Man, and what were you saying about other peoples inelegance again?

But AGAIN,
Posada = HOF worthy catcher being rewarded for years of service with one team after showing little-to-no signs of slowing down. Its not a great contract at all, but considering who it is and the team giving it out ~ well, its not that bad. Posada is a CATCHER who hasn’t posted an OPS under .850 since *2000* and has been one of the faces of the franchise!
Beltre = 1 year wonder who was paid more than twice as much as he deserved because he added .300 Points to his OPS. Beltre is a almost a joke, he’s a 3B who can barely crack the .800 OPS mark in his peak years ~ a guy who’s game compares to guys like Inge, Crede and Feliz; ie a bunch of guys that are not wanted on their teams but make 7+ Million less a year!!!

Wow.

Some of you really need to

GET. A. LIFE.

Please put the mouse down, and back away from the computer. Now go outside, and talk and interact with real people.

Maybe drink a warm ginger ale as well.

You'll feel better soon.

OK “guru”, waiting for the GF to get home and had some time ~ figured I would use it to end this once and for all… I mean, I know if we don’t you will just keep repeating the same asinine thing over and over again and over again in any thread you choose to somehow try and twist into a “lets talk about how amazing I think all the Mariners players are” thread… This is fairly indisputable, extremely reasonable and completely fair to him ~ so lets take at look at Beltre’s *real* HOF chances:

Now, what we’ll do first is take a look at the last 5 3B to get voted into the HOF ~ George Brett, Tony Perez, Paul Molitor, Wade Boggs & Cal Ripken

G. Brett ~ 138 OPS+, 531 AB avg per year starting with first full year (pre 29)
G. Brett ~ 132 OPS+, 504 AB avg (age 39 to age 40 season)

WBoggs ~ 147 OPS+, 610 AB avg per year starting with first full year (pre 29)
WBoggs ~ 126 OPS+, 509 AB avg (age 39 to age 40 season)

T.Perez ~ 128 OPS+, 610 AB avg per year starting with first full year (pre 29)
T.Perez ~ 122 OPS+, 500 AB avg (age 39 to age 40 season)

Molitor ~ 113 OPS+, 462 AB avg per year starting with first full year (pre 29)
Molitor ~ 122 OPS+, 500 AB avg (age 39 to age 40 season)

Ripken ~ 123 OPS+, 627 AB avg per year starting with first full year (pre 29)
Ripken ~ 104 OPS+, 541 AB avg (age 39 to age 40 season)

…NOW, two things will stand out:
1) Only 1 player (Molitor) had a higher OPS+ after his age 29 season. Overall, the combined OPS+ of the 5 players went from a 129 OPS+ pre-29 to a 121 OPS+ over ages 29-40.

2) Only 1 player averaged more than 500 AB from 29-40 ~ that was “Iron Man” Cal. Everyone else averaged a near perfect 500 (500-509)

Now, EVEN IF Beltre somehow plays the next 11 years, we should expect him to average about 500 AB and experience an OPS+ drop of about 8 points. So, next we need to factor the OPS+ drop to see what to expect. Since his Avg OPS+ is 99 (well, without that fluke 04 season atleast, which it doesn’t look like he is touching that again) ~ a 8 OPS+ points removed leaves us with a 91 OPS+. That’s actually less than his 2005 production (93 OPS+ that year). But to make it easier on us, we will just go with that rate…

So, we have this: 154 H, 36 2B, 19 HR, 69 R, 87 RBI
Divide those by his 603 AB that year, and multiple it by the 500 AB; we see this:
500 AB / 128 H / 30 3B / 16 HR / 57 R / 72 RBI
Now, multiple those totals over 11 years:
5500 AB / 1408 H / 330 2B / 176 HR / 627 R / 792 RBI / .255/.303/.413/.716
And lastly, add it to his current line, and you get roughly:
10860 AB / 2864 H / 629 2B / 396 HR / 1338 R / 1583 RBI / .263/.315/.436/.739
Now what that is NOT ~ its not 3K Hits, its NOT 400+ HR, its NOT 1500 R/1500 RBI and most importantly, its NOT First-Ballot HOF.

What we learned:
Well, we learned that when we step out of Homer-Land and think about things rationally, we recognize that even on the OFF-CHANCE that Beltre plays another 11 years, and on the OFF-CHANCE that he performs like a HOFer over those 11 years, he STILL DOESN’T come up with a line that is HOF worthy. Much more likely though, is a career path similar to Kevin McReynolds (a player he compares too absolutely perfectly as far as rates pre-29 go) ~ which is about 4-6 more years in the league before no one wants him.

So “guru”, should we expect another half-assed excuse of how Beltre will somehow beef-up like Bonds and stay healthier than Ripken and just set the world on fire for the next 11 years and how this .260-ish/.315-ish/.460-ish hitter is just a God-among-men and easily a First-Ballot HOF? Or will we get lucky and you will actually finally accept the fact that you’ve made some asinine proclamations, using back-wards logic and incorrect assessments, which have odds of coming true which rival those of me walking on the sun? Knowing you, we will probably get a post about what Felix Hernandez ate for breakfast, and because he ate Fruity-Pebbles it means that Beltre will easily hit 75 HR yearly for the next 5 seasons…

I'd just like to point out that Posada's not a 1st ballot HOF'er either. I don't even think he makes the hall at all as it stands. He'd make the "Hall of Really Good," though. You can't get into the Hall with the ~1800 hits and 300 homers Posada will likely have when he's done. Good, consistent player (and being a catcher helps too), but not GREAT.

Beltre is in the "Hall Of A Few Good Seasons and One Really Good Season," but he doesn't have a standout career... just a standout 2004. Maybe he has one more great season like that, but he's never making the Hall. If you want a Mariner in the Hall, start pushing for Edgar Martinez. He's at least got a shot at it, but still not a 1st Ballot.

“I'd just like to point out that Posada's not a 1st ballot HOF'er either. I don't even think he makes the hall at all as it stands.”

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=412
That was done half way through 2007, and already he ranked 16th overall among catchers ~ and ahead of 5 other HOF catchers. His numbers last year actually put his line at
80.2 / 62.0 / 71.1 ~ which moves him up to 14th (ahead of Bennett and Parrish). Now, even if he posts his two worst seasons ever the next two years, he passes Cochrane and Ewing into the 12th spot (and most likely even Simmons into that 11th hole.)

On top of that, factor in the fact that he spent his entire career with one team (a team which happens to be the most storied in sports) where he went to the playoffs all but 1 of his 13 years (so far, hehehe), he’s the only catcher with 8 straight season of 130+ Games behind the plate, 5-time Silver Slugger, 5-Time AS, 2-Time Top-6 MVP voting…

Really, I despise the Yankees! And I mean, with a passion! My screensaver on my PC at work is a picture of the Yankee scoreboard from August 2004 with that ever so classic line that looks like:
INDIANS – 22 R, 22 H, 1 E
YANKEES – 0 R, 5 H, 0 E
(((Man I love those Yankee fans holding their heads in shame and they scurried out of the stands…))) But hate the Yankees or not, I can not deny that Posada is one of the most amazing catchers to ever play the game. His consistency and ability to stay healthy, coupled with a superior bat; all while he played behind the plate… Not to mention being on the biggest stage you can find, as far as baseball goes, for his entire career (I mean, there are quite a few great players completely tank solely going to the pressure of NY) ~ well… Yeah, I have no clue if Posada will be a first-ballot guy ~ but he does get there… I would rather it not be the case, and I could always be wrong; but I really, really, really don’t see how Posada doesn’t end up enshrined…

“I'd take him on my team. But yes I think you've made your point.”

…Oh, I’d take him too ~ but only after about 15-20 other current 3B in the game…
…ARod, Wright, M.Cabrera, A.Ramirez, Atkins, Zimmerman, Chipper, Figgins, Glaus (if healthy), Rolen (if healthy), Braun, Gordon, LaRoche, Fields, Kouz, Headley, Longoria, Chavez (if healthy), Reynolds… Am I missing anyone?

M. Cab- not a 3rd baseman
Figgins- Not at all
Glaus(if healthy)- nice caveat
Rolen(if healthy)- same
Braun- not a 3rd baseman
Atkins- Not at all
Laroche- Not at all
Fields- ehhhh
Kouz- No
Headley- No
Longoria- are we talking this year or career cause obviously you take the 22 year old if its career
Chavez- Pfft nonsense
Reynolds- same with Longoria

I'd put him at about 6th best 3b in the game. When two of the people above him are pretty much the two best players in the game. He signed a free agent deal at 26 is only 29 years old taking that into account he's cheap.

That and I did say I'd take him on my team.

Mike Lowell 12 million a year 08-10 34 yo
Adrian Beltre 12 million a year 08-09 29 yo

Aren't you an Indians fan? So, so would you.

And lastly… As an Indian fan, No ~ I there is absolutely no way I want him over Blake. And really, why should I? Can you explain where Beltre comes in as the smarter move?

Lets see:
Beltre 3YR avg ~ .266/.317/.453/.770 103 OPS+ @ 12.8 M
Blake 3YR avg ~ .263/.338/.448/.787 104 OPS+ @ 3.75 M
…humm, same production rates at plate, 9-Million to spend elseware for team and the ability to move Blake anywhere on the diamond really. Yeah, being a Cleveland fan, I think I’ll stick with what we got… Keep the nearly-13M fielder and give me the same production with much more flexibility every single day of the week…

I also probably take Crede, Inge and Feliz over Beltre as well. They are better fielders, generally produce similar rates at the plate and come with a price-tag of 7M or less.

Or think of it this way:
Beltre + Livian Hernandez
Vs
Crede + Gil Meche
…See what I mean?

“Signing a guy as a free agent or owning him from the minors on.”
…uhhh… Well, I figured it was kind of like an expansion draft where just no 3B were protected. You can take any 3B, and subsequently end up with their actual contracts. Isnt that the only way such an exercise would be possible?

“How do you quantify defense?”
…Well, Beltre isnt even that great of a defender though. I mean, he’s good, but we are not talking Rolen or Feliz good here… Last year, his RZR was 18th of 28 3B with atleast 500 innings, and his RZR-R was 6 ~ less than Feliz, Wright, Zimmerman, Inge, Rolen, Glaus, Chipper, Nunez & Mora; and about even with Ramon Vasquez and Alex Gordon.

“Beltre makes Carmona that much better and whatnot.”
…Blake + Westbrook vs Beltre + ?Sowers? (I Guess?) = no brainer! Even if he might give a small boost to the pitchers lines, he is just not worth it in any possible way…

…And really, that’s probably what the choice would have been for Cleveland. If 13M was sunk at 3B, then they would not have been able to resign Westbrook. Well, I guess Pronk could have been the one not resigned, but either way…

Honestly, there is just no way what so ever that Beltre on Cleveland would ever be considered with that asinine contract. The only way I would take Beltre over Blake in Cleveland is if he was making 5M-ish or less since I can get similar production for about that cost rather easily.