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Olney's Latest: Wolf, Lohse, Sabathia, Fuentes, Oswalt, Bailey

By Sarah Green [June 28, 2008 at 2:27pm CST]

Buster Olney has a new column up. Let's take a look:

He suggests Randy Wolf as a "possible trade chip" with the Padres looking increasingly out of it this year. One problem: Wolf has veto power over trades to 14 teams. He's been decent this year, with a 4.13 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 98 innings, but nothing to get too excited over.
Gossip item: the Mets could have had Kyle Lohse for what the Cardinals are paying ($4.25MM), only Omar Minaya passed.
Olney doesn't see much in the speculation about the Angels wanting C.C. Sabathia. With Kelvim Escobar's rehab going well, great first-half performances from Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana, and John Lackey likely to improve going forward, why should they make a push for C.C.? Olney sees the Brewers and the Cubs as more interested parties. (Ken Rosenthal mentioned the Brewers and the Rays as C.C. suitors yesterday.) Later in the post, Olney notes that Sabathia has a 1.96 ERA in his last fourteen starts. Yowza.
How the Rockies fare over the next two weeks could determine what becomes of Brian Fuentes.
Olney can't decide whether the Orioles should buy or sell. What do you think?
Roy Oswalt won't get traded, with Olney linking to the Houston Chronicle's Richard Justice for his evidence. (Oswalt has, of course, been talking like he'd prefer to be somewhere else.) Also working against a deal for Oswalt: his continued experiments with pitching to contact (to keep the ol' pitch count down) haven't been going very well this year, either. His K/9 has been declining for years, of course, but it may have reached a point of no return this season. Whatever happens, I'm sure the 'stros would prefer to move him at peak value, not right now when he has a 4.77 ERA.
Homer Bailey, back in Triple A Louisville, isn't getting any love from the scout quoted here, who says he threw "batting practice fastballs." Bailey was 0-3 with a 8.73 ERA in the majors this year after a hotly anticipated call-up. Given the bounty of young arms they already have, the Reds would probably prefer to trade him...but alas, his value has dropped the way his curveball used to.

Sarah Green writes for UmpBump and the Boston Metro and can be reached here.

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Comments

ok one by one
randy wolf has to be traded. his value to a contending team is far greater than his value to the padres. plus they just signed tomko so its cool(that was sarcasm).

lohse has to be one of the best offseason signings. i wish now we would have gone 3 or 4 years for him, obviously.

angels will not get cc, no chance.

one of the two rockies closers will be traded.

oswalt did not want to go anywhere and, despite speculation, was never going anywhere. that is the one astro(except maybe lance berkman) that will never be traded.

Posted by: Joelcards | June 28, 2008 at 02:37 PM

I am not completely sold on Lohse. He has a nice record, and was a nice signing. I think he'll settle more into the 4.50 ERA range, when more of those flyballs start leaving the yard. But the idea that going three or four years on him would've been good, I don't agree. The Cards did exactly the right thing with one year.

Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 28, 2008 at 02:42 PM

u know tim ive watched every start of his(actually seen 3 in person) and he has the stuff to go with the demeanor and metality. he used to tip his pitches which he has stopped doing since coming over and working with duncan has gotten him to believe in himself. thing is those flyballs dont leave the yard in busch like in cincy or philly. unless the cards start playing in a new stadium i dont see why they would suddenly start flying out. ive seen this scenario like lohse play out many times before(suppan,carp). sometimes i doesnt work(wells), but when it does its great. they knew it was a gamble when they signed him and i dont think they should have done anything different. im saying, in hindsight, they should have locked him up(but i certainly dont mean for silva money).

Posted by: Joelcards | June 28, 2008 at 03:05 PM

The Oriols should definatley sell. They have only 2 good hitters in their lineup, and only 2 good pitchers. (That is, if you consider Daniel Cabrera a good pitcher) I don't know how they keep winning but it isn't likely to keep on happening.

The Angels should be trading for a bat, not an arm.

I think Fuentes will end up being traded to the Red Sox for Jed Lowrie. I think the Yankees are more likely to get Marte. The Mets don't have the stuff unless they offer F-Mart. I don't see why the A's will be that interested because they have more pressing needs. I don't know why the Phillies are interested because they have JC Romero. That leaves the Red Sox.

Posted by: Joe | June 28, 2008 at 03:18 PM

Oswalt's K/9 is actually up this season, better than the last 3 seasons. He hit 97 on the gun in his last start (dropping down to the mid 60s with his curve). His problem is he just looks like he's not interested in being out there.

Had the Chacon situation not have occurred, I think Dewey Robinson would have gotten the ax soon, but I think now he'll end up lasting the rest of the season.

I can see Oswalt being traded, despite having a NTC, but I think the Astros are better off fielding offers for Carlos Lee 1st (despite his NTC) and then start looking to move Oswalt, Tejada and Valverde.

Posted by: Darin | June 28, 2008 at 03:24 PM

"I think Fuentes will end up being traded to the Red Sox for Jed Lowrie. I think the Yankees are more likely to get Marte. The Mets don't have the stuff unless they offer F-Mart. I don't see why the A's will be that interested because they have more pressing needs. I don't know why the Phillies are interested because they have JC Romero. That leaves the Red Sox."

what are the red sox going to do with fuentes? move delcarmen or okajima to the 6th and give up on hansen entirely? only works when dice-k starts. plus if they trade lowrie what hope will sox fans have that lugo will ever leave?

Posted by: elmedius | June 28, 2008 at 03:29 PM

What can the O's really sell? Luke Scott is pssible but why? He's cheap and controled for years to come he's a little older but he'll put up aubrey huff numbers(when huff was in his prime). Maybe move huff but where? He's really limited in what positions he can play and still has another year on a bad contract. I'd keep him to DH. If someone wanted Payton then I'd love to move him. No point in moving Roberts unless we get a middle infielder and a pitcher and even then we'll still be soft up the middle.Move Mora if someone is dumb enough but no body is. The only players I suggest we move would be Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford,Melvin Mora and Payton. I say hold on to Sherill unless we got a Gagne package. Everyone always needs relievers and we'll have Ray back in August so we at least have some excess there.

Posted by: joemorgan=#1 | June 28, 2008 at 03:52 PM

Oh an if we can move Cabrera while he's throwing someone decent maybe we can fleece someone out of a couple decent prospects.

Posted by: joemorgan=#1 | June 28, 2008 at 03:54 PM

i honestly think the only reason writers keep the C.C.-Angels speculation going is because the Angels have prospects.
With the return of Escobar (hopefully) next month, there will be no need or place for C.C. in Anaheim.
Though adding him would make an absolutely killer rotation, It's just not logical. The possibility of adding Escobar already makes the Angels' rotation the best in baseball.

Posted by: bseballcrzy17 | June 28, 2008 at 04:20 PM

elmedius,

You're right. I forgot they had Delcarmen on their team. Sorry, just slipped my mind I guess.

joemorgan= #1,

The O's have a lot of chips. They can shop Sherril, Roberts, Walker, Bradford, Aubry Huff, and try to move Payton, Melvin Mora, and Ramon Hernandez.

Posted by: Joe | June 28, 2008 at 04:34 PM

I don't see how adding Escobar makes the Angles the best rotation in baseball. Who are you going to take out? Garland, and just assume that Santana & Saunders continue putting up #s they never have? And that Escobar will come back healthy and effectively? I still prefer the Jays rotation.

Posted by: 92-93 | June 28, 2008 at 04:52 PM

Should the Orioles buy or sell? Is it possible to do both at the same time? Two prime targets for the Orioles to acquire should be Khalil Greene from San Diego and Dallas McPherson, currently dismantling PCL pitching with Florida's AAA team.

What trade chips do the O's have? Sherrill for one needs to go now. His newspaper stats are fantastic but he scares the hell out of me every time he pitches. Not to mention that he's almost reached his career high in batters faced, and we're still in June.

Others: Cabrera can go be great somewhere else. I've had enough of the teases. Huff/Millar/Payton/Hernandez will not bring much if anything in return, maybe a 4A starter to fill innings for the rest of the year. If we can get F.Lopez for cheap from the Nats, maybe we can flip him with a B/C pitching prospect (Hayden Penn, anyone?) for Greene. Cabrera for McPherson straight up. Sherrill and Bradford (Walker's done) to contenders to replenish. Not sure how the rotation would look without Cabrera, don't care if we get who I want.

Posted by: mstrchef13 | June 28, 2008 at 06:51 PM

Joe the phillies want fuentes because romero is a beast but he is the only lefty in the pen and the phillies could use a set up man

Posted by: philliesphan44 | June 28, 2008 at 08:59 PM

What woud we get is the question. I'm sure we could move Ramon Hernandez but we have no catcher ready in the system.We could move Huff but what we would get back really would not be an upgrade. Again unless we could pull a gagne type trade for Sherill what's the point? He's a good situational lefty and can even pitch full innings in the 7th or 8th. I could move bradford and walker. Payton and mora would be great to move just because of bad contracts.We should sell high with cabrera. Millar has no value. I want no part of Khalil Greene he is highly over rated and will never consistently get on base plus the padres would want a lot more then that. Penn still has promise so I would hold on to him anyway. Felipe Lopez is horrible even if we get him on the cheap. He's basically Cintron with better speed no thanks for the 2 million we'll have to pay for half a season. Again moving roberts makes no sense unless we get an equal midle infielder which really is not happening. I say give him an extension. We need to find a shortstop and only a couple come to mind Clint Barmes would be ideal his value has increased so he'll cost more but maybe a Cabrera for barmes deal gets it done. I would love Mcpherson but I think the Marlins will hold on to him unless they are blown away.

Posted by: joemorgan=#1 | June 28, 2008 at 09:19 PM

I don't really think the Phillies need a setup man the way Romero, Madson, Seanez, and Durbin are pitching. I don't think the Phillies need bullpen help at all, they should focus more on starting pitching.

Posted by: Joe | June 28, 2008 at 09:25 PM

The Oriols are rebuilding. They could send Hernandez and some cash to the Marlins just to dump his contract. Maybe they can get Mike Rabelo back and then trade a guy like Henn for Ronny Paulino. Paulino and Rabelo won't kill you at catcher untill Wieters gets there. You trade Sherrill because he is at his highest value. I doubt the Rox would want to move Barmes, he looks like there 2B of the future.

Posted by: Joe | June 28, 2008 at 09:36 PM

i like those trade proposlas guys. cabrera for barmes sounds like fair value for both sides and with the os surplus of marginal pitchers and the rockies surplus of mid inf it makes perfect sense. i also agree the os should trade sherrill. they have ray coming back and sherrill could falloff and lose all value. mcpherson would certainly fill their need for a 3b but i dont know what the marlins need. they certainly dont need starting pitching. maybe the marlins give up a starter(nolasco, mtre, sanchez) with mcpherson for sherrill. thats the only thing i think the marlins could use(thats cheap). hernandez makes sense but os have to pick up salary.

as for the phillies, i think they need a lefty reliever and a starter. maybe they should put myers back in the bullpen, i dont know. they have the offense but in a postseason series they will be in trouble with that rotation.

Posted by: Joelcards | June 28, 2008 at 09:40 PM

"I doubt the Rox would want to move Barmes, he looks like there 2B of the future."

wasnt that like 3 years ago? yeah, he blew that after a hot start...fell down the stairs or something like that if i recall. or maybe thats when he was their shortstop of the future... i guess you can be the future more than once, maybe, i might give him that... maybe not

Posted by: elmedius | June 28, 2008 at 10:00 PM

It's amazing how mediocre the pitching is in this day and age. Fully average MLB pitchers are viewed as potential pennant winning acquisitions.

Posted by: coryjwilson | June 28, 2008 at 10:48 PM

The Orioles should sell, sell, sell and keep doing so until they can get a whole bunch of talent to bring up at one time. That's the only way they'll be able to compete with the Sox, Yankees and Rays (and even the Blue Jays if they fire Riccardi) in the next 5-10 years.

Posted by: thehoagster07 | June 28, 2008 at 11:33 PM

O's should sell off some of the worthless spare parts but not the core. Keep Scott, Jones, Markakis, Roberts, Huff, Hernandez and deal the rest. Anyone want Payton? He is crushing Left Handers (.625 Slugging). Anyone need an RP or two? Bradford has a sub-3 ERA. Walker has not had an ERA over 4 for a season since coming back to the Majors in 2002. Sherrill has 35K in 35 Inning to go with his 26 saves. I'd say D.Cabrera would be a good NL pitcher but he swings the bat like a 4 year old.

Anyone want Mora? Cause we are giving him and his 13 kids away!

Posted by: XD23 | June 29, 2008 at 01:53 AM

And why would another team want the Orioles' "worthless spare parts" if they aren't good enough for us? What needs to go are players who are more valuable to another team than they are to us. Payton is a RH hitting platoon OF. These guys are everywhere, and Payton's value is limited. Walker (LH specialist) has given up 6 HR to the 59 LHB he has faced.

Hernandez is not a core player. He's average offensively and overrated defensively. I'd rather see Quiroz 5 days a week. Bradford could get us something. So could Sherrill and Cabrera. Mora has a no-trade, and would probably waive it only to go to Philly so he can stay close to home. His drive to there would be about 30 more minutes than his drive to Baltimore. Otherwise, he can't be moved, and besides we don't have anyone in the minors ready to replace him either (Costanzo's not ready yet).

Posted by: mstrchef13 | June 29, 2008 at 08:30 AM

The Phillies could still use a reliever (and I am a fan). Their pen numbers have been buoyed so far by unsustainable ERAs from Durbin, Romero and Lidge. Romero's ERA is particularly crazy considering the baserunners allowed, but he must be doing something right because in two seasons here I've rarely seen hitters get good swings against him.

Fuentes would be a good fit for the 8th, allowing them to mix and match Romero and Durbin in the 7th depending on matchups, and use Madson in the lower-leverage situations (behind late in the game, 6th inning, etc). Gordon IMO is completely shot.

The other problem though is that Myers may have already made his last start. They could, but hopefully won't, move Chad into the rotation now, where I think he'll be exposed a bit.

Posted by: wayne gomes | June 29, 2008 at 09:44 AM

The other problem though is that Myers may have already made his last start. They could, but hopefully won't, move Chad into the rotation now, where I think he'll be exposed a bit.

Posted by: wayne gomes | June 29, 2008 at 09:49 AM

Yeah I can see how Mora's .230 ave and below .300 OB% would really be missed. Yeah umm Huff can play 3B. Hernandez is not overrated defensively. He just has pitchers who have no idea how to hold people on.

Also most teams have problems hitting left handers. So a guy like Payton who can ONLY hit lefties is always an asset to a team. And the O's have pleanty of younger OF options in the minors.

Every team needs spare parts. pleanty of teams need an extra OF or RP.

Posted by: XD23 | June 29, 2008 at 12:58 PM

I am a life long orioles fan so i may have a little bit of a unclear approach. I do agree the orioles should still be selling some of their players. But, when you say the orioles only have two good hitters in their lineup, thats not accurate. Brian Roberts is tearing it up, along with nick markakis, aubrey huff is having a stellar yr leading or at the top of many AL stat categories. Luke Scott has been hot this year. Its not always about having 9 excellent hitters in the lineup. Its about haveing 8 or 9 70 RBI guys in your line. Thats what the O's seem to be doing this year. everyone is contributing, when someone is having a bad game, someone else comes up with the big hit. Now when you say the orioles pitching is bad, i agree. That is one thing i think the orioles need to upgrade on. The starting pitching rarely goes 6 innings, walks batters, and constantly throw the ball directly down the plate. Another reason for the orioles sucess is the bullpen. The orioles had the lead in something like 115 games last yr. they lost like 40 one run games, mainly in part due to the bullpen, who has been lights out year.

Posted by: O's Fan | June 29, 2008 at 01:50 PM

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Olney's Latest: Wolf, Lohse, Sabathia, Fuentes, Oswalt, Bailey

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