Gammons On The Cubs' Starter Pursuit

"C.C. Sabathia - Cubs don't believe they have enough to get him."

...How could the Cubs FO say such a thing, any Cubs fan will tell you they can easily put a package together that the Indians would be stupid to turn down ~ and youre ignorant if you feel otherwise!

***sigh***

LOL...

...Still LOL...

Think I peed myself a little. Not a Cubs hater, but it IS funny.

milehigh,

You also please save your laughter please until August 1st. Cubs will make the necessary move, whatever it is. Hendry knows what he's doing.

"Gammons talked to a Cubs official who said, 'We almost certainly will do something. But we really don't want to give up Sean Gallagher at this point.'"

Thats why the Cubs don't have enough. Because they won't offer Gallagher. If they offer Gallagher, Vitters, Ceda, and Patterson, they could get it done. If they don't offer Gallagher, they can't. It's that simple.

Cubs World Chaps please B4 I die,

I completely agree with you. Even if the Cubs don't get Sabathia they will make a move to upgrade their starting rotation. (Just please not Randy Wolf) Hendry does know what he's doing. (See Jim Edmonds and Redd Johnson signings)

1st Gallagher is the only one out of that group that is an MLB ready or near MLB ready guy.

2nd Vitters was hurt and has not hit as projected (alot of that is because hes hurt), Ceda has been horrible until recently when they stopped pitching him more than 2 innings at a time and Patterson and Pie cant shake the AAAA label and was last seen in A ball last week. Patterson hitting well in his 3rd stop at a level doesnt really impress many people especialy with a .399 BABIP.

3rd Vitters and Ceda are at best 18 months if not longer away from being MLB ready.

4th Who in the entire Cubs system is an upper teir MLB ready guy? There isnt one, and thats the type of centerpeice that this deal is going to made for. Gallagher is going to be a good pitcher, but hes not on par with some of the top talent in any of the orginzations named in this piece can offer.

5th Why add Gallagher, a member of your rotation to trade for an upgrade? Wouldnt a smaller move to upgrade say Wolfe instead of Marquis do a more for the club than deal the only young salarly controled guy of the group?

6th If the Cubs think that they have the horses to stay in a trade race with BA's #2(Bos) #4(Tex) #6(LAD) systems, with coming into the season, the #18th best farm system I cant help you. The #18th rating was anchored on the fact that BA considered Soto and Foukodome rookies (who are untouchable) and Vitters who hasnt hit as expected and been injured all year. Add to this the amazing strides the Milwalkee system has taken and the Cubs just cant beat these teams in a bidding war.

The Cubs just dont have the horses to out bid any of those 4 teams.

I expect the Cubs to try and get another started, just not CC, espically with moving Gallagher

Harden is going to probably be priced out of the Cubs range aswell just becasue he is under club control for an extended period of time and Billy Beane wants the farm for his SP.

Besides, i would be leary of any SP that Beane is dealing. Think about how much he wanted for Blanton last year, and how poorly he has pitched now. Buyer beware when dealing with Beane

I can't seem to find where I read it...but didn't one of the cubs starting pitchers just say that they had good comradery out there and that they didn't need another starter? Did anyone else read something like this?

"Thats why the Cubs don't have enough. Because they won't offer Gallagher. If they offer Gallagher, Vitters, Ceda, and Patterson, they could get it done. If they don't offer Gallagher, they can't. It's that simple."

Wrong Joe. Gallagher as a centerpiece still wont get it done, especially if the Brewers offer a deal centered around Gamel or LaPorta. The Indians want bats, in particular power bats as the centerpiece for CC, not a #3 starter.

I say that not in a disparaging way, Gallagher is gonna be a very good #3, but there is more value for a guy who can be a 30hr/90rbi guy than a #3, thats just how it is.

Just a warning: since it seems there is a lot of vague talk on either side, I'm posting a rather long comment detailing the Cubs' prospects and my own sense of their respective values. This is just my opinion, which, I think, is unbiased and without sentiment for or against the club (as an O's fan, I rarely have cause to even consider the Cubs). Don't be a d-bag and tell me it's too long. I know. If you don't care or already know about the system, just skip it.

I actually think that Harden would be something of a steal...if Billy Beane was reasonable in his demands. The likelihood is that he'll ask for the moon like always...and, like always, someone will give it to him. Should the Cubs make a play, Harden's age and talent certainly play up; he'll always be intriguing, despite the massive injury risk/history. I DO NOT, however, believe Hill or Marshall- at least in and of themselves- would be nearly enough for Beane's liking.

For all the poo-pooing of Cubs prospects (a nice way of putting it), part of that is backlash against Cubs fans eager to inflate the value of their uninspiring system. That being said, let me be the first non-Cubs fan to defend their farm...at least to an extent.

Gallagher is a nice, middle of the rotation arm- nothing to scoff at. Legit #3's of real talent don't grow on trees, contrary to the talk here and Gallagher has proven himself capable at every level despite being quite young.

I tend to share the feelings of many non-Cubs fans as far as Pie, Cedeno, Murton, and Hill. Hill could still pique someone's interest, but his implosion has shot his value and made him a poor trade option; Hendry would be foolish to sell so low. Because of how little he and others in the system like him- Pie is another prime example- would garner in return, there's no risk in hanging on and hoping for a turnaround. In retrospect, Hendry should have traded both Hill and Pie over the offseason when their combined value alone might've been enough to pry a (near-)frontline starter from some cellar-dweller, but hindsight is 20/20 and no one could've predicted Hill would self-destruct so completely (Pie is another story). To sell now would be akin to selling Veal last winter; while he's not exactly back to top prospect status (and probably never will), his stock has certainly risen.

Murton and Cedeno have value, but probably not as much as most Cubs fans here seem to think is warranted. Same with Hoffpauir.

Vitters hasn't particularly impressed- thus far demonstrating little more than a pattern of injury and an inability to hit Low A pitching. His numbers over the past week or so in short season ball have been solid, but when you consider what fellow high school draftees like Jason Heyward, Mike Moustakis, and Matt Dominguez are doing at Low A, Vitters' short season play is hardly confidence-inspiring. Nevertheless, he'd have considerable value on the trade market, simply because of his age and upside.

Ceda and Veal both look like future power relievers with the upside to close, but don't strike me as centerpiece options; instead adding value to a package. Comparisons have been made between Ceda and Marmol and, over the offseason, he was considered a possible Top 100 prospect- to give some idea as to value- but some of the luster has worn off this spring and summer. Still, he's pitching well of late and is among the Cubs' better prospects. The same could probably be said of Veal, who is still in the Double A rotation and whose numbers are in complete opposition to those he put up during his horrid '07 campaign. Scouts seem to think his command will never be good enough for him to stick in a rotation, but as a power lefty, he could be a valuable addition to someone's bullpen.

While they are currently untrade-able, I also thought the Cubs had a nice draft; Cashner, Flaherty, Schafer, and Carpenter were all excellent collegians capable of moving up the organizational ladder pretty quickly.

Finally, though the Cubs' system has had a rough first half and would-be gems like Tyler Colvin and Jeff Samardzija have seen their flaws exposed (though Samardzija was inexplicably promoted to Triple A and has, even more inexplicably pitched quite well over his first two starts there), Dae Eun Rhee and Jovan Rosa have both emerged as intriguing prospects who could add value to an offer.

Sorry to be so long winded, but it seemed like the winds were blowing this way: giving those unfamiliar with the Cubs' farm system a glimpse at some of the players who could be heading elsewhere in exchange for a starter to round out the rotation. I didn't know where in all this to mention Chris Huseby, since I think he's hurt; also recent draft pick Rebel Riddling (or something to that effect) has been tearing up Short Season pitchers- much more so than Vitters.

@LAXTONTO:

Would it really be so difficult to actually look up Vitters' stats before posting?

In his first full pro season, (he played only 2 weeks at the end of last year), as a 19-year-old, he's hitting .357/.383/.586 !!

The season is just getting underway, but Vitters is absolutely destroying the northwest league. He's leading the league in hits, and is among the league leaders in practically every offensive category. His OPS is over 1.200 vs. left-handers.

He will not be traded, and nor should he. In fact, I don't even know if he *can* be traded under MLB rules as a signee within the last year.

@Glover:

Why the hyperbole? The Cubs' farm system is obviously not terrible, as it's produced about 35 pitchers currently on MLB rosters.

There are certainly teams with more to offer Cleveland -but frankly, I'd be shocked if they made CC available. Pay the man his money, Tribe.

sweetswingingbw- how so? I really don't get your meaning. Certainly, I didn't think that some of the hypothetical offers made by Cubs fans were anywhere close to enough for Roberts, but I'm not sure how that makes me biased against the Cubs or their prospects. Please understand, I have absolutely no stake in whether the Cubs win or lose; whether their prospects are great or lousy.

@LAXTONTO -

Josh Vitters is not playing rookie ball.

He's in the Northwest League, which is short-season A-ball. He'll be back in Peoria (Midwest League, low-A ball), shortly.

It's a little silly to say that a 19-year-old's value has "plummeted" when he didn't hit for the first 20 games of his professional career, and then proceeded to hit .360 at his first long-term stop.

Here let me help you out since it seems research is not your strong point...

http://firstinning.com/players/Josh-Vitters-a/?s_y=2008&s_t=Boise&s_ll=A-

Vitters season started in Low A, were he complained about a wrist injury before the season started where he was placed in extended spring training, came up had a great first game then went 0-10 and got sent back to extended spring training with tendonitis, then when finally decided healthy shipped to Rookie league instead of Low A where he was slated to start the season.

Hes hitting .339 with an totally unmaintainble .400 BABIP espically considering his 9% line drive rate. Add that to a 5% walk rate and a 17% K rate and you get a guy whos numbers are going to be hard to sustain.

Do your research man....Its sad when i know more about your prospects than you do as a Cubs fan

As A fellow Cubs Fan we have all the pieces to win a world series this year except another LEFT handed pitcher. Lilly can't be the only lefty with Hill being shutdown for the year and Marshall soon to be sent down due to Big Z's return. I haven't watched the trade market a lot but the only Amazing lefty is C.C Sabathia and if we don't aquire him Lou, the rest of the team, all the fans, and me and my family will all be very sad come the end of October.

laxtonto-
You made a great point with your post. It's too bad you had to act like a d-bag in order to do so. It only hurts your credibility.

Well after the third time, it kinda gets old...

Dont call people out if you dont want a negative reaction.

The A's said they are looking in trading Blanton, Harden, Duchscherer, Street, Crosby, Gaudin, and Emil Brown his not going to be in Oakland next year so he gone too.
Well if you look at what the A's need maybe the Cubs can get a deal done to get Harden. Their in a rebuilding mode so let's shall we what they look like now.

SP- Joe Blanton
SP- Rich Harden
SP- Dana Eveland
SP- Greg Smith
SP- Justin Duchscherer

RP- Alan Embree
RP- Kieth Foulke
RP- Chad Gaudin
RP- Santiago Casilla
RP-Andrew Brown
RP- Dallas Braden
RP- Brad Ziegler
CL- Huston Street

C- Kurt Suzaki
1B- Daric Barton
2B- Mark Ellis
3B- Eric Chavez
SS- Bobby Crosby
RF- Travis Buck
CF- Ryan Sweeney
LF- Emil Brown
DH- Jack Cust

DL- Frank Thomas, Mike Sweeney, Joey Devine

Now the free agents after the season are
Frank Thomas
Mark Ellis
Rich Harden
Joe Blanton
Huston Street
Alan Embree
Chad Gaudin
Emil Brown
Justin Duchscherer
Kieth Foulke
Mike Sweeney
Rob Bowen
ok lets just say pretty much their whole team is a free agent after the season.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/oakland-athletics.html
besides Crosby, Chavez and 2 others.

With a trade Cubs could solve some problems for the A's and they will be young so the A's won't have to go out and spend money on useless veretans.

P.S. Tim, you have to get rid pf Typekey it sucks.

I love how if you rattle off BABIP, LD%, and K/BB, you've all of a sudden "made a great point."

Laxtonto, you just said two minutes ago to beware of small sample sizes (like 14 games). They're too small to judge. And then you, well, judged...

I find it hilarious that your argument goes from "beware of small sample sizes" to "his production is totally unsustainable." "Totally unsustainable" based on rate stats gleaned from 14 games. Brilliant!

"Theres a differnce between using a predictor for small sample sizes . . . vs using severel perphiral stats to downplay a batting average."

I disagree. The peripherals themselves are the product of small sample sizes. Any of those stats can change very, very quickly. Heed your own advice and beware.

I'd venture a guess that Vitters stock has fallen due to injuries and anecdotal scouting reports, not as a result of statistical analysis.

Predict a .400 hitter no, predict that the likelihood that his .338 average and high BABIP can be maintainable yes. BABIP rates and LD% are directly related. Thats why i said "you get a guy whos numbers are going to be hard to sustain." Not impossible, but the the likelyhood of it happeng will be some small that its statistically insignifigant

As far as Vitters stock falling for injuries ect, did you not read the initiall post in all of this?

The main flaw in Vitters arguement is that im not trying to prove to that Vitters is above average or elite, im trying to disprove the notion that he is currently on that career path. Much easier to prove, much smaller sample sizes needed.

and i agree who ever voted to get rid of type key, its straight up killing me today.

@LaxTonto:

Do you not understand the difference between short-season and rookie ball? I tried to point this out nicely.

For your benefit, I'll repeat:

Josh Vitters is not playing in the Rookie League right now.

He is playing in the Northwest League, for the Boise Hawks, which is Short-Season A-ball.

This is a distinction with a difference, and you seem to be using the two terms interchangeably.

The Cubs Rookie League team is the Mesa (AZL) Cubs - Vitters played 7 games for them late last season.

Secondly, the First Inning stats that you cite are different from the official MILB.com stats - First Inning is off by one hit. He's hitting .357 at Boise.

Thirdly, the idea that a 19-year-old player's career, or even that prospect's "stock", can be materially and adversely affected by 4 games (14 AB) of .214 hitting in low-A ball while playing with a bum wrist, is just stupid.

Do you know who else has had a 3-14 stretch in low-A ball at some point this season? Everybody!

Finally, the idea that you can take the first 14 games of Vitters first full pro season, and extrapolate out that he has a bad batting eye (which goes against every scouting report ever written on the guy), and that he's lucking out with a high BABIP and low LD%, is equally stupid. If he hits three line drives tonight, he suddenly has a great LD%, and your entire argument falls apart. Repeat the mantra - don't draw conclusions from small sample sizes.

Moreover, I reject that 9% LD% out of hand. It's a subjective rating, and we should note that Vitters has XBH in 11% of his AB, and singles in another 18% of his AB. That LD% presumes that all 10 of his singles, and 1 of his extra-base hits, were not line drives. Possible, but frankly, implausible.

All we know is that the Cubs babied their top prospect when he had a wrist injury, and that they sent him to short-season ball in his first pro season.

This is the standard MO for Hendry, and if he stays true to form, Vitters will finish the Boise season and move on to Peoria for the remainder of 2008, and will start 2009 in Daytona, with the possibility of a mid-season bump to Tennessee.

Here are my thoughts on why the Cub front office would make that comment.

Let's say the Indians have decided they are going to trade CC.

What would be the worst case scenario if you were Jim Hendry......Brewers trade for CC.

Let's look a the Brewers briefly. They are at a delicate stage in their franchise development. Their last playoff appearance was 1982 and they've done a nice job of positioning themselves for sustained long-term success now.

Similar to the Indians, they are a mid-market franchise and need to take calculated risks. A trade for CC is taking a big risk and signals you are going for it(the world series) this year.

Yes they will get 2 compensation picks if they lose CC at the end of the season, but like the Indians who are I think are simply having a down year, two compensation picks are not going to help you next year as their young talented core gets closer to free agency. Simple economics dictate they will be unlikely to resign them all.

So the questions for the Brewers probably revolve around these ?s.
Does an acquisition of CC put a team who has very little playoff expereince over the top?
What other holes do we have?
At what cost(prospects)?
Do we over pay in terms of those prospects?

I think with a healthy Gallardo these questions are easier to answer. I think if the Brewers had made the playoffs last year it's a no brainer they would go for it.

In determing if your going after CC I would have to think blocking your division rival from getting CC would be a huge factor.

Which leads me back to why would the Cubs make that statement?
If your Hendry and you willing to go all in for CC but realize your all in doesn't come close to say your division rival's all in what do you do?

What if you think your all in matches up favorably to the Brewers, Red Sox, Dodgers half-in(so to speak)? Well, then you might state you don't think you match up well with the Indians.

Shapiro's job in the event he trades CC is to get maximum value. If he goes to the Brewers and says the Cubs are coming hard after CC and everything the Brewers read says the Cubs are going hard after CC, the Brewers might give in to Shapiro's demands and overpay.

But what if the Brewers are sitting on the fence and don't want to waste their bullets on a pitcher who will be gone after this year. Instead they decide they want to sit pat with what they have and try to make the playoffs this year and see what happens in the playoff. With the idea that next year is the year they use their bullets and go for it.

Given that scenario and the fact they see the Cubs don't match up they may be more inclined to make a "half-in" offer.

You may think it's crazy to think this way, but I believe it's the difference between the mid and large market teams. Free agency allows large market teams to recover quickly from mistakes. Mid market teams can't afford that luxury and thus must proceed more cautiously.

I think if the above scenario plays out and the Brewers don't go all in I think the Cubs might have a chance. I don't know that the other teams rumored to be involved will be as aggressive.

Are most of the people bashing Vitters here the same ones quoting BABIP to tell me that Soto wasn't going to be any good???

Yeah..that worked out well.

Any team that thinks Vitters doesn't have the same value he did when he was drafted are just dumb, and looking at 50 at bat sample sizes to prove their point. I guess if he hits .400 for 50 at bats he will be the nations top propsect? Come on.

I will say this again people. Its not that hard. If teams that are in this race for CC are going to give up elite prospects like Kemp, LaPorta, LaRoche, Lester, etc...than they will win him and the Cubs do not have enough. However, if there are no blue chippers going to be offered, which is a very good possibility for a 2 or 3 month rental, than the Cubs are right in it.

As a Cubs fan, I'd be MORE than happy with Burnett or Harden, depending on what it would take to get them. You can bet that Hendry isn't going to sit back and let the Brewers get CC while he does nothing. History says that Hendry will be among the most aggressive GMs in the game at the deadline, and his trade history is very good. He has gotten players like Lofton, A-Ram, and Derrek Lee...and when you think about it, really hasn't given up much of anything! Who are we supposed to be upset about losing, Dontrelle Willis? Sergio Mitre? Hendry will do his job. If the trade doesn't look good for the Cubs, he will look elsewhere.

To all the people who say trading for C.C is a bad idea... thats just dumb. C.C stated during the season that he doesnt like to organize a contract during the season, but if the cubs aquire him prior to the allstar break he will have that time to put one together. Oh and by the way if the cubs dont get him by then he will still come to the cubs and stay long term after we win the WORLD SERIES!!!!!!

Aduncaroo,
We all know that Hendry was just shootin crap to get the media off their back, and to get the team refocused. Not as an insult to ur knowledge but Hendry will do whatever he can to get C.C

Sorry I should be more specific. CUBBIES2008 is delusional. Not all cubs fans.

Yes, and of course it's not milehigh or anyone on here's opinion. It's Mark Shapiro's opinion. We have no idea who they might like in the Cubs system, nor why. I have faith in Jim Hendry, he will come through, with a starter. He'll also slyly move Marquis out for a useful part - watch him!

Jake, couple things…

First ~ Huh? Second ~ Your theory is interesting, but it doesn’t really make much sense what so ever... The worst thing that could ever happen for the Cubs is for the Brewers to get Sabathia at a discounted price ~ the very thing your theory would set up to take place… You know he is most likely getting traded to your league, you know you don’t have the pieces to get it done ~ the last thing you should do is try to lower the price for everyone else. Mil gets CC for anything less than LaPorta or Gamel, and all of a sudden you have screwed yourself not only this year, but also beyond…

Besides, the Brewers are much more likely to fold if the cost is going to be too high, not the other way around ~ meaning your entire theory is fatally flawed from the very start. If the Brewers think they can get CC for a couple lesser prospects, then there would be no reason for them draw back and take the chance they miss the playoffs over some lesser prospects. Shoot, look at this offseason for a perfect example of how to work it ~ if the BoSox never showed interest, or tried to lowball on the packages, then Johan would most likely be in pinstripes for something like Kennedy/Cabrera/B-prospect. They played it to the point of the Yanks having to hurt themselves a ton if they traded for him, or the Yanks not getting him at all ~ the perfect back-against-the-wall situation to put your competitor in…

The most logical reason the Cubs would say such a thing probably comes in the fact that its just a situation which is well known around the league so there would be no need to try and hide it… I mean, its not like every reporter with a scout or source hasn’t said the same thing…

give it up darkstar, you are talking jibberish again. We'll see what you have to say August 1st.

I hate to be the one to break it to some of you boys but Harden will cost MORE than Sabathia in terms of prospects. He is under team control for two more seasons. Even with injury history his skill level and team controllablity raises the price tag. Even in a rebuilding mode the A's are in a tight AL West race and in the thick of the wild card. So a offer of Vitters, Veal, Hendrys pet gerbal won't even start the discussion. Keep dreaming boys

Just keep skewing stats and babling on and on...I swear, we'll believe you. I'm sure you don't have the anti-cubs bias that pretty much everyone here knows you do...

Just like Soto was going to be horrible, Fukudome can't hit American pitching etc...

Oh my God, I cant believe how oblivious to reality you are…
1) copying stats from one page onto another isnt “skewing” a damn thing ~ its called “providing” them…

2) you apparently have a miserable memory on top of your many other issues…
a) I said “its more likely Soto keeps up only one of the two” (speaking of the Power and Contract increase Soto saw) Over the last two months, Soto has hit .261/.341/.463 ~ an extremely similar line to his minors numbers with a power increase…
b) I said “the Cubs might want to make sure Fukudome can hit American pitching before moving him to the 2 spot”. Since I said it, Fukudome has hit .256/.373/.375 (with 3 IBB)

Anyway, whatever dude… All non-Cubs-Fluff is "bias" and otherwise Rah-Rah Cubs!!! ~ we know...

Wow, I knew you were pitiful but…