Pirates Rumors: Wilson, Bay, Nady, Marte, Grabow

This all sounds pretty reasonable, on its face. Of course saying Nady or Marte for "two prospects" is pretty ambiguous. Huge difference between David Price (top 5 prospect in baseball) and Mitch Talbot (back-of-the-rotation prospect, at best). Both are prospects, so saying "two prospects each" tells us nothing in terms of the value Pittsburgh wants.

The Pirates and Rays match up too well here. The Rays have enough pitching depth to send a package either highlighted by Davis or Hellickson (or maybe even Brignac), plus other good prospects, for Nady + Marte. I like the idea of Hellickson + Niemann + Barnese + lesser prospect. If the Rays make the playoffs this year, they will go a long way toward securing their fan base in future seasons. Probably be worth $20 million or more in revenue next year if they make the playoffs this year. Plus they get picks when Marte leaves.

I think the Pirates should trade Bay and the Braves make all sorts of sense. The Mets probably don't have good enough prospects for Bay. The D-Backs would be another good choice, but they would have to worry about having 4 outfielders heading into 2009 (Bay, Upton, Young, Byrnes). Plus, with Teixeira probably leaving, Bay gives the Braves another big bat heading into 2009 (just like the Braves acquired Teixeira to have a big bat heading into 2008 after Andruw's departure). Tommy Hanson + Brandon Jones + Brent Lillibridge? Maybe substitute someone with slightly more upside (or a pitcher or 2) for Brandon Jones. Picking up someone like Lillibridge would give the Pirates a little more flexibility with Jack Wilson.

I could see the Cardinals being in play for Wilson. Early rumors have indicated that the Dodgers are hard to work with right now and they may hope Nomar can hold down the fort until a hopeful Furcal return. Maybe Wilson for Bryan Anderson (or Jaime Garcia) + Tyler Herron? For the Dodgers, maybe Hu + McDonald.

Maybe $20 million in revenue is a little ambitious on my part (it was a typo)! But it would definitely increase revenue for 2009 and beyond by at least a couple million if they make the playoffs this year.

Grabow and Nady are one-year wonders if you looks at their stats. As a Yankees fan, I don't want either...and the Bucs are being greedy with their requests for Marte (a free-agent to be) and Jason Bay...who is having a bounce back year.

I'd much rather see the Yankees make a strong play for the Holliday/Fuentes combo. Both are far superior to the Bucs duo.

I don't think Nady's exactly a one year wonder, but Jason Bay is certainly a much better player, and probably worth the additional (non-Price) price. Given that their 2009 salaries will likely be similar, I'd shoot for Bay.

I doubt Huntington's overvaluing a couple more months of Jack Wilson, so the Dodgers need to step up and make this happen -- they need a solid SS big time.

"For the Dodgers, maybe Hu + McDonald."

Gotta feel like this is too much for Jack Wilson. He's a decent hitter and good fielding SS, but he gets paid a lot and really isn't anything special. For the Dodgers to move Hu (presumably someone's shortstop of the future) and McDonald (a pretty damn good pitching prospect, and he's not that far away), they would need to get a better player in return. I could see maybe Hu and a lower level prospect for Wilson, with no money being exchanged.

"

Grabow and Nady are one-year wonders if you looks at their stats. As a Yankees fan, I don't want either...and the Bucs are being greedy with their requests for Marte (a free-agent to be) and Jason Bay...who is having a bounce back year.

I'd much rather see the Yankees make a strong play for the Holliday/Fuentes combo. Both are far superior to the Bucs duo."

If only it was all this simple and easy. The Pirates are simply trying to maximize the value of Nady and Grabow, who really aren't performing that out of whack. Both are actually pretty good players who are just playing well. And I think the Pirates are asking a fair amount for Marte, I mean he's been pitching this well for years and is a pretty good back of the bullpen guy. Tough to blame them when he's almost undoubtedly a Type A free agent.

And if you think that Grabow, Nady, Bay and Marte have high costs, then you probably shouldn't go after Holliday/Fuentes.

How about Hughes, Tabata, Kennedy and Ohlendorf? Yeah I wouldnt want to do that either. Well personally I would because I think that Kennedy and Tabata are gonna end up being busts, but I doubt the Yanks would

"Grabow and Nady are one-year wonders if you looks at their stats."

That may be the case, but feel free to provide your own analysis, rather than making blanket general statements.

Nady's K% is at a career low and his BB% is at a career high. While his BABIP is a little inflated, this is so because of his incredibly high 26.4% line drive rate, not a bunch of seeing-eye grounders finding holes. Maybe his LD% is lucky, but his career 20.8% indicates a batting average in the .310 range is perfectly reasonable, particularly with fewer K's. His ISO is right where it was last year, as is his HR/FB rate.

So really the only potentially fluky thing I see from his numbers when I look is his LD%. Everything else seems pretty sustainable. He is certainly not a star, but he is a good player.

As for Grabow, you are probably right. His LOB% is a very high 84.0% and his BABIP is a very low .266. His K/9 and BB/9 are close to his career averages. The Pirates would be well-advised to try and sell high on him. He could easily regress this year and probably will next year, meaning he probably won't be a Type A or Type B free agent and will not bring draft picks. Now is the perfect time to trade him, because he has "more value" since he is not just a rental.

Get Ed Wade on the phone, stat! The Pirates have a mediocre relief pitcher they want to sell high on

As for Jack Wilson, is $7.25 million for 2009 really that bad? Even the $8.4 million club option for 2010 is not that bad. He plays plus defense and provides average to above-average offense for the position.

Who would you rather have? Crosby at $5.25 M? Vizquel at $5.2 M? Greene for $6.5 M? Michael Young for $16 M? Renteria for $11 M? Lugo for $9 M? Alex Gonzalez for $5.375 M? And it is not fair to compare him to guys that do not yet have 6+ years of service time (i.e. arbitration years).

And what about 2009, would you rather have Jack Wilson for $7.25 M knowing you could buy him out in 2010 for pretty cheap if you wanted, or would you rather gamble big bucks on Furcal's back, or maybe Christian Guzman or Orlando Cabrera, who will make similar amounts of money but will require more years?

Jack Wilson's contract is like Adrian Beltre's contract. Most people think they are bad because of a first impression they formed years ago. But people ignore the salary inflation that has taken place in recent years, the consistency offered by Wilson/Beltre, and the fact that Wilson/Beltre looked worst in the year they signed those deals, but have performed better ever since.

Considering that neither Hu or McDonald is any sort of lock to be a major league regular (Hu had 1 good year with the bat, McDonald has a unique injury history and has #3 upside), I think they are an appropriate package for Jack Wilson.

What about Nady and Marte to the Yankees for Alan Horne/Ian Kennedy and two lower level prospects? Not enough for Pitt? Well if I were to have thrown in Jose Tabata, I'd have been laughed on out of this website.

The Pirates shouldn't let Bay go for anything less than a Texiera type deal. And everything I read from the GM indicates that's his view. I hope he sticks to his guns.

Forget last year, Bay played on two bad surgically repaired knees. Every other year but that one, he's been a consistently superior offensive player. I'd gladly keep him to build around unless I'm blown away with an offer.

By "blown away," I'm thinking at least TWO elite prospects (think top 5 in a system) and TWO more lesser prospects (top 15/20). The Pirates might throw in a player like CF Duffy or C Paulino so the deal isn't so lopsided on paper but it's going to basically be 4-for-1.

I agree the Rays are the best match-up. Their only big hole is a middle-of-the-order raker. Plus they have a deep enough farm system that they can package 3-4 top prospects and still keep their best one (Price). I was thinking Niemann, Brignac, and a lesser prospect for Marte & Nady. Or maybe Edwin Jackson, a top AA pitcher, and Brignac. The Pirates need ML-ready pitching almost as bad as they need minor league pitching.

Braves, I'd say Hanson, Locke or Rohrbough, and Lillibridge for starters. Then another lesser prospect. If you think you can seriously bid on Bay and not include either Hanson or Rohrbough, you are fooling yourself.

Likewise, the Yankees would have to include Jackson and at least one of Hughes/Kennedy. I doubt they'd part with both pitchers but that's the only way I can see them keeping Jackson if they want Bay.

Nady & Marte should command at least one of the Hughes/Kennedy pitchers + lesser prospect (Tabata?) from Yanks or Niese + lesser prospect from Mets.

People seem to way overvalue their prospects. Hu? Brignac? Kennedy? Hanson? There's no guarantee on any of them.

Jack Wilson might not be a HOFer but he's proven player who'll anchor an infield while hitting respectably. Nady might not be the next Manny Ramirez but the past two seasons (the only two he played every day consistently), he showed he is a good OFer and a very good hitter. Outside of Fuentes, Marte is by far the best reliever on the market, plus he comes with 2 picks if he leaves or an option for next year if you're a rich team.

I understand nobody wants to let the next Scott Kazmir go but for all we know, Kennedy or McDonald will never amount to anything but #5 starters or middle relievers. Hu or Brignac might never hit more than .220 and be the new Cesar Izturis.

These are the chances the Pirates have to take because we suck. But if you're a team thisclose to playoffs, I'd take the proven major league talent now and try to win it all. Wouldn't it suck if say the Yankees hold on to Kennedy and then find out 3 years from now he's a mediocre back-of-the-rotation guy when they could've flipped him for Bay or Santana?

Oh and the simple fact Huntington doesn't want Melky Cabrera puts him ahead of Dave "Melky you say? Hmmmm..." Littlefield in my book.

If the Pirates consider dealing Jason Bay, or Xavier Nady to the Braves, is there any chance Jayson Heyward is included in the deal, or is he deemed untouchable?

"As for Jack Wilson, is $7.25 million for 2009 really that bad? Even the $8.4 million club option for 2010 is not that bad. He plays plus defense and provides average to above-average offense for the position."

I think Wilson is paid on the high side of reasonable for his skill set and experience. That said, McCourt's aversion to adding more payroll may mean the Dodgers are asking the Bucs to pick up this year's tab, and that may be the back breaker.

That said, there is no way Wilson produces a healthy Nomar's numbers at the plate, and Nomar showed again yesterday that he can still play short. Now, Nomar's health is a big question mark, but if he is producing like this, Wilson suddenly becomes a very expensive bench warmer, as I think 3B is an injury waiting to happen for Garciaparra because of the explosion required on tough defensive plays.

I really think the Bucs could use someone like Jeremy Hellickson. I worked for the Columbus team he pitched for last year and his stuff is even better this year. He just flat out throws good strikes. If we are looking for other positions to fill from the Rays they are also stacked, but mostly at pitching. Plus the fact that I now know Jeremy it'd be great to see him come to Pittsburgh!

I think Heyward is pretty close to untouchable. Schafer isn't far behind either.

if the rays are smart they wouldnt wreck what they have already built for years just for two guys who are having the best year in their careers. its not worth it for them to trade away their future. and im a sox fan id love for them to trade it away but i dont believe they will.

This just in from the Cardinals: Pittsburgh can have BOTH Duncan and Reyes for Marte. OK, the Pirates don't have a lot of use for Duncan, so I don't see that working, but they can take have a 3B prospect (Freese?) or another outfielder (Stavinoha?) or even a couple pitchers (Parisi/Worrell).

Something tells me though that the LH reliever St. Louis is gonna land is Mahay.

Look, I understand teams overvalue their prospects. But you HAVE to exercise caution when people talk about dealing their #1 prospect in pitching- such as Hansen is for the Braves. Same goes for Heyward. In the case of Salty, he was one of our top prospects- if not #1. But, we had a logjam with B-Mac at the position already. Therefore we could afford to let go of our best prospects.

This day and age, I think we all know about the Braves outfield situation, and our pitching isn't exactly phenomenal.So it is only natural we simply VALUE our top pitching and offensive players.

People act all offended when someone suggest players that are not the #1 prospects in an organization, as if they are joking. Well, ill tell you a joke- it's called Xavier Nady. Tell me one year ago, how many people would have laughed for suggesting the top 2 prospects in anyones organization for XAVIER frickin NAdy...hell, for JAson "bionic knees" BAy?

Maybe some prospects are overvalued, but then again maybe some pros are overvalued in pittsburgh. RIDICULOUS! thats what I think about every offer I ever heard for Nady or Bay.

I just want to throw out there that since the Yankees' motivation for getting a bat is supposed to be their struggles against lefties, that I'd really rather not see them trade for a righty who hits nearly .100 points better against righties (Bay), just to add another extra body to the LF/DH scene. Nady, who also hits better against righties and consistently plays his best ball in the first half, could be a decent acquisition, but not really right now and not for the prices that the Pirates are demanding. I'd rather wait for our bats to come around, maybe let Gardner mature a bit (a la Jacoby Ellsbury) and get some experience, and keep a little of the optimism in our prospects that kept us from getting Johan Santana.

"Nady, who also hits better against righties and consistently plays his best ball in the first half, could be a decent acquisition, but not really right now and not for the prices that the Pirates are demanding. I'd rather wait for our bats to come around, maybe let Gardner mature a bit (a la Jacoby Ellsbury) and get some experience, and keep a little of the optimism in our prospects that kept us from getting Johan Santana."

Where should I start with this? If you have ever paid attention to Nady, you will see that he usually kills lefties(and was often said the reason the Mets struggled against lefties after he was traded)and that he does better in the second half. He actually is pretty consistent the whole year.

Also, if oyu think Gardner is anything close to Ellsbury, you are on some crazy stuff.You probably should have traded for Santana too. He would have helped alot and would have looked much better with the run support the Yankees would have given him.

I'm surprised and find it quite amusing that some people were outraged enough to write 20 paragraphs on thr fact that I said that Nady and Grabow were one-year wonders. One guys even quoted a ton of completely useless stats.

Nady - Hitting .323 this year - .280 for his career. That's a 43 point difference. Sounds like a career year to me.

Grabow - 3.28 ERA this year. 4.40 for his career. More than a RUN per game.

This isn't brain surgey people. Just read the baseball card.

Don't get me wrong....both are nice players. They just aren't worth giving the farm away for. I would give top prospects for Matt Holliday. He is a superstar!

"Nady - Hitting .323 this year - .280 for his career. That's a 43 point difference. Sounds like a career year to me."

Nady has shown consistent improvement as he has gotten more playing time. He may well have been a victim of circumstances as much as anything. Besides, he plays in a pitcher's park.

"I would give top prospects for Matt Holliday. He is a superstar!"

A superstar who hits like a rather average player outside of Coors, and who plays merely average defense at the least important position on the field.

Talk about clearing up misconceptions by looking at stats, it is a total fallacy to suggest Matt Holliday is superior to Jason Bay. PNC Park is nototirously rough on right handed hitters, and Coors Field is even more notorious for being favorable to hitters.

Over the past 3 years, Jason Bay is OPSing .920 on the road, and Matt Holliday is OPSing .809 on the road.

I like the idea of Nady and Marte for Hellickson or Davis. I think one of them would probably get it done but if it doesn't throw in Niemann.

gmac,

The Rays wouldn't be selling the farm if they did this trade. They have so much more depth they could easily spare one of Hellickson and Davis. Their future rotation has Kazmir, Price, Shields, Garza, Davis/Hellickson. They also have Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel, and Jeff Niemann avalable. So they wouldn't be selling the farm, just the part they don't need.

Holiday is hitting .301 on the road. Nothing "average" about that.

Nady is 29 years old...he's not a "prospect", he's a vet. He's never hit close to what he has this year. He's an average player having a very good year and the players teams should give up...should reflect that point.

Do not judge players' true skills based on their road stats. Park adjust all of their stats.

And Nady is hitting .342 on the road with more homers and rbis...what's your point?

A big knock on Nady is that he is "injury prone". This year he has been relatively healthy. I think a team that does acquire Nady is getting a pretty good player. Probably, for a decent price as well.

I have to agree with Scranton and AA. OPS is a better indicator of success than batting average. The difference in the road OPS of both player is staggering. Holliday owns a .859 road OPS, while Nady has a .992 road OPS. That seems to be the difference between average and pretty good. Simply my humble opinion.

What you, I and anyone inbetween thinks of Nady, Bay, et al means nothing. The fact of the matter is Nady has improved every year and he is proving he's an everyday player. His stats are what they are. If the Pirates deal him or any other player, it will be a case where the Pirates sell when a players value is high. As a Pirate fan, that's a welcome change of circumstance believe me. I would just as soon keep them if Huntington can't get what he percieves as their value whatever he decides. I don't mind trading all of them if the return is good. But if the players involved don't project to be as good as or better then what we're trading, then why make the trade.

Like it or not, this is a sellers market. Right now a team like the Yankees are on the outside looking in and I don't think the Red Sox and Rays are going away. Kind of refreshing.

Going only on this years stats. Holliday and Nady appear to be the same player...Nady isn't as big a hit on the payroll, though.

I think Holliday is better than Nady, but he's not better than Bay. Jason Bay is a better offensive player than Holliday.

Of course you do...if your a Pirates fan. To the rest of the world that statement is ridiculous. Don't get me wrong...Bay is a nice player...but he's not Holliday.

2007
Bay - .247 21 84
Holliday - .340 36 137

Lifetime
Bay - .281 .376
Holliday - .321 .385

PS - Bucsfan....the whole home/road thing is grossly overrated. You're SUPPOSED to play better at home...that's why it's home!

I hate the Sox more than anything...but obviously Manny and Ortiz are both great hitters. Both hit nearly 40 points higher at home in the last three years. Anyone saying they're overrated? They play in a freakin little league field! Only players in Colorado get called that.

"People act all offended when someone suggest players that are not the #1 prospects in an organization, as if they are joking. Well, ill tell you a joke- it's called Xavier Nady. Tell me one year ago, how many people would have laughed for suggesting the top 2 prospects in anyones organization for XAVIER frickin NAdy...hell, for JAson "bionic knees" BAy? "

So by that logic Chipper Jones and Tim Hudson would have no trade value b/c they have a history of injuries?? And maybe for Bay they are asking for two top prospects plus more (which is a bit different then the top two as you wrote it, granted for some teams there isn't a difference, see Mets or White Sox) And for Nady they are asking for two good prospects I don't think that is a crazy demand. Even before this breakout season Nady was considered a solid outfielder, still relativly young, cost controled and put up decent numbers. And the fact that he is having a great year does up his value, its just a fact.

Flip Bay and Holliday... i gurantee you that Bay has many more RBI opps. Bay doesnt get all that many in Pittsburgh, we dont field a usual good offensive team...

And if your counting... Bay just hit his 20th HR in the 9th to tie the game against Houston... Followed by another Nady single...

"Of course you do...if your a Pirates fan. To the rest of the world that statement is ridiculous. Don't get me wrong...Bay is a nice player...but he's not Holliday.

2007
Bay - .247 21 84
Holliday - .340 36 137

Lifetime
Bay - .281 .376
Holliday - .321 .385"

Using Bay's 2007 where he was battling injury is a bit unfair to him. look at each players numbers in 2006:
Bay: .286-35-109 with a .938 OPS

Holliday: .326-34-114 with a .973 OPS
Those are pretty equal and if you figure in the difference of playing half your games in a great hitters park I think it becomes a very even arguement. Also Bay had very productive years in '04 and '05 as well as this season, this would show that'07 was the outlier and not accurate representation of Jason Bay. And yes you are right you are supposed to play better at home, but the statistical fact is you put up better numbers in better hitters parks. Look at hitters in pitchers parks, Adrian Gonzalez is hitting .314-13-36 with a .945 OPS on the road and only .242-9-37 with a .759 OPS.

Holiday is the opposite his OPS is .200 higher at home than on the road and over .050 higher batting average, this season. And in the 3 years prior '05-'07, Holiday hit twice as many homers at home, with over .300 difference in OPS and .100 in BA. You reference Manny and Ortiz and they do play in a hitters park but if you look at their 3 year splits again '05-'07 it is pretty interesting and not comparable to Holiday.
Ortiz: Away: in 872 AB's, he hit .283-78-194 with a 1.010 OPS. Home: in 836 AB's he hit .329-58-208 with a 1.067 OPS, sure the average got a nice bump but the HR's are drastically down at Fenway, and he only ended up with a .050 boost in OPS one sixth of the boost that Holiday gets playing at Coors.

Manny, Away: in 768 AB's he hit .285-52-163 with a .932 OPS. At Home: in 718 AB's he hit .320-48-171 with a 1.015 OPS. While both recieve a boost in batting average it is minimilized by reduced power numbers meaning that Fenways significance on performance is much less than Coors.

Do they seriously want our trash?? I guess they have made terrible trades in the division in the past, ala aramis ramirez, maybe they owe us.

Duncan, Reyes and Mather for Marte and Wilson, done, and done.

"One guys even quoted a ton of completely useless stats. [poster proceeds to cite AVG and ERA]."

There aren't a ton of stats that are completely useless. Fielding percentage might be close. Wins certainly isn't a great stat. But the stats I was citing (K%, BB%, LD%, BABIP, K/9, BB/9) are all good stats that help indicate whether a player has taken a genuine step forward, or whether his "career year" is just based on luck. Maybe this is Nady's career year (although people were saying the same thing last year). But I am just making the point that it seems to be the result of genuine development, rather than pure luck.

Duncan, Reyes and Mather for Marte and Wilson? That is crazy and isn't close to Wilson's worth. Reyes is just a throw-in at this point. Yes, everyone asks about him because everyone would like to give him a shot. But no one is willing to sacrifice anything of substance for him. Mather is 26 and is getting his first cup of coffee this year, not exactly a young prospect at this point. And in case you didn't notice, the Pirates have a slight logjam in the outfield (Bay, McClouth, and Nady in the majors with Pearce and McCutchen in AAA). Duncan's power has been missing for a year now and has never hit lefties.

Hard to settle Bay vs. Holliday unless you get Holliday out of Coors. I think it is safe to say that Bay has fewer question marks, so long as he is healthy, just because you don't have to worry about how he will do away from a favorable park.

The Rays wouldn't be selling the farm to get my proposed Nady + Marte deal. Here are their top pitchers (how I'd rank them considering talent, injury history, service time, and how proven they are against major league hitters): Kazmir, Price, Shields, Garza, Davis, Hellickson, McGee, Sonnastine, Niemann, Jackson, Barnese, Mason, and Talbot. And that excludes guys that might be given a chance to start in another organization like Howell and Talbot, and anyone drafted in 2008, plus I am sure I'm missing some decent prospects. It is scary.

SteveO - I like how in your long diatribe you forgot to toss in the CAREER stats, not just the ones from Bay's best year. Career wise...Holliday hits 40 points higher. He is also a year younger and doesn't have the knee issues.

Bay is a nice player and I wouldn't mind the Yankees getting him, but neither myself or anyone in baseball rates him higher than Holliday.

"SteveO - I like how in your long diatribe you forgot to toss in the CAREER stats, not just the ones from Bay's best year. Career wise...Holliday hits 40 points higher. He is also a year younger and doesn't have the knee issues.

Bay is a nice player and I wouldn't mind the Yankees getting him, but neither myself or anyone in baseball rates him higher than Holliday."

Really, so you speak for everyone in baseball now? Wow, the arrogance of some Yankee fans. SteveO didn't cite career stats because there are irrelevant when comparing to players in Coors. He's tried explaining this but apparently it's a concept that is a little difficult for you to comprehend. If you don't think that Coors field inflates offensive numbers you need to give some of what you're smoking because it must be good. Hell, you're beloved Melky Cabrera might actually live up to the hype if he played in Coors. Remember names like Dante Bichette, Larry Walker, Jeffrey Hammonds? These guys all benefitted greatly from hitting in Coors. Now, Holliday is a nice player (and doesn't deserve to be compared to Hammonds and probably Bichette either) but you cannot ignore his home/road splits. To do so would be simply foolish. Also, the reason he cited Bay's best years, if you were paying attention, was because some knuckle head compared their 2007 stats which is completely unfair because that was the year Bay played injured recovering from knee surgery. He has shown resiliency coming back this year which indicates there is no lasting effect from the injury. Many players don't bounce back but he has. Now, with all that being said, is Bay a better offensive player than Holliday? Tough question to answer but it's definitely a lot closer than you are making it out to be. I think that if you look at the park adjusted numbers it is a lot closer than you'd imagine and probably a wash. Myself, and everyone in baseball would agree.

Jason Bay career OPS: .893
Mark Texeria career OPS: .907

Bay has 1 more year left at under $8 MM. Tex, will be a free agent, and turned down $140MM over 8 years.
A .900 OPS in left field is more valuable relative to a .900 OPS an 1B.

No reason why the Bucs shouldn't expect a Tex-like return for Bay.