Rosenthal's Latest: Sabathia, Burnett, Fuentes, Guillen

I have a question about AJ Burnett's "opt out"

Can he only exercise that at the end of this season? or will he get a chance to opt out at the end of the '09 season as well?

I have a question about Jose Guillen: Why would anyone want him. Sure, 50 doubles would be an impressive total, but when it comes with a 70% out rate and a $30MM obligation (not to mention other "quirks" I'm not nearly in the know enough to evaluate), its seems like he's a pretty obvious net negative.

I think Guzman to the Cardinals makes great sense. After the Cubs and Brewers upgraded the Cards have to do SOMETHING to stay in the hunt, right?

What kind of value would Guzman get in return? AA pitcher Jess Todd would probably be the initial asking price, but a 22yo SP with a 1.68ERA, .188BAA and 87/20 SO/BB ratio is probably untouchable.

Wow on Rosenthal's indictment of the Dodgers' inactivity and confusion. Maybe its time for a few of their top assistants (Kim Ng, Logan White) to get hired as GMs by other clubs so the team can do a better job of setting a direction?

Personally, I think they should be buyers (not like they have many vets with trade value anyway). The NL West is weak. The D-Backs have good pitching, but their offense is very streaky. They are only getting better next year, so if you are going to win you might as well try and win now.

The Dodgers have enough prospects to make some impact trades without moving Billingsley, Kershaw, or Kemp. Trade Hu and someone else to pick up a decent SS (Jack Wilson, Khalil Greene, etc.). Or be cheap and just try to get Felipe Lopez or Eckstein for a marginal prospect. Hoping Garciaparra can stay healthy and handle SS these days is silly.

Go after a 3rd baseman like Beltre (welcome back!). His offense is better outside Safeco and he's an elite defender.

Heck, pull off a whopper with the Mariners (another rudder-less organization). Bedard, Beltre, and Betancourt for LaRoche, Hu, McDonald, Meloan, Jason Schmidt or Juan Pierre (eating a few million dollars, done to even out money situation a little), and 2 other decent prospects. Bada-bing.

I hate it when teams and/or owners and/or GMs are too paralyzed by fear or indecision to make the moves necessary. I like it when teams recognize their situation and aren't afraid of failure. Beane, Shapiro, Byrnes, Hendry, Kenny Williams, etc. Even Ed Wade (blah) has this trait. These folks are not paralyzed by fear. They make moves when they need to. They do not lack for conviction.

So, Ned Colletti's still Dodger G.M. but he has been effectively neutered. What a terrible situation for the Dodgers. Their only hope is for the entire NL West to continue to suck.

"Go after a 3rd baseman like Beltre (welcome back!). His offense is better outside Safeco and he's an elite defender."

Beltre isn't an upgrade over what the Dodgers currently have. The only thing he is is more expensive.

The Dodgers and their fans (from what I've seen of them anyway) seem to covet their prospects more than they care about winning championships. They seem to think all their prospects will realize their full potential in the majors and feel like they are entitled to get big name players without giving anything noteworthy up in return. Rosenthal saying they are a "near-impossible trading partner" is dead on and it's unfortunate that the Dodgers and their fans can't see how this is bad for them. They seem to be content with a fistful of lottery tickets as opposed to a proven major league player that can help them now.

If that was the trade, there is no reason the Dodgers shouldn't have done it. Wade has been very, very good this year, but he is a top rate setup man of the future at best. LaRoche has been languishing, though this also leads me to believe that they plan on converting one of him or DeWitt to 2B next year. No Kershaw, no Kemp, no Ethier. They most definately should have brought in Sabathia if that was the package.

How about JJ Hardy for Heath Bell and Will Inman?

If I'm the Indians there is no way I make that trade. Sabathia alone brought 4 prospects, the overall quality may not match but the centerpiece was much better. Shaprio would have been burned in effigy if he made that deal. Hell, Cleveland's fair weather fan base is already up in arms over the trade.

Everybody backing Colletti (who we can assume was the party in favor of trading for Sabathia) is mental. Let me make a few points here:
1) The Dodgers are -not- in win now mode: not now, not when Spring Training started, not when the regular season started. If the front office had the intention of 100% going for it this year, we would've traded for Miguel Cabrera. Our refusal to make any major preseason trades made it clear as day that the Dodgers would be in full fledged rebuilding/youth movement mode this year. I love the Dodgers, always will, but we don't stand a chance in the playoffs, especially if we don't get home field advantage, which I don't think we would. Maybe it's a different story if Furcal stays hot and healthy all season, but losing him helped kill any chances we may have had at being serious contenders this year.
2)It doesn't take a baseball genius to know what our priorities should be: lowest era in the national league and miserable offensive production? Clearly CC Sabathia is the answer! His addition would've been nice but ultimately counterproductive, especially considering that Kershaw and MacDonald could both feasibly be in our starting rotation in 2009. Any blockbuster trade initiated by the Dodgers better net us the power bat we have so desperately needed since Adrian Beltre had his fluke 2005 season, somebody like Matt Holliday...
3)...which unfortunately won't happen because of the Ghosts of Colletti Past. As long as Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre are on this team, we're not gonna get that power hitting 3rd outfielder to flank Kemp and Ethier that we so truly need.

A true win-now Dodger team would have to include Furcal, a power-hitting, cleanup-hitting left fielder to protect guys like Kemp, Loney and Martin, and a GM tandem of Kim Ng/Logan White. It's truly silly to try to vindicate Ned Colletti for our sorry state while his mistakes, and his mistakes alone, are what are holding us back from contention.

registereduser,

My understanding from what I've read is that Burnett's opt-out clause can only be exercised at the end of the 2008 season, and that it's not renewable after the 2009 season -- basically a one-shot deal.

I posted about a week ago on the matter, no one really seems to know the exacts of it. One shot deal seems to make more sense, multiple chances to opt out is kinda ridiculous. Bad year 2008, I'll stay. Good year 2009, I'll go.

Also, to Sesshomaru:

It's not really the prospects that Dodger fans are reluctant to part with. We're talking about major league ready talent: LaRoche (who would be putting up decent numbers if he was playing every day), Kemp, Loney, Wade, etc. I don't think it would cause much of an uproar if we traded guys like Meloan, MacDonald, Lambo, or even Hu for an impact bat.

Internacular is spot on. I wouldn't make sweeping generalizations about Dodger fans for one thing, Sess, but the ones I know would like to win now but not at the sake of the future. Oh by the way in case you haven't noticed, the Dodgers had a "Win Now, mortgage the future" mentality for about 20 years and its netted them barely a playoff win. I think we'd be perfectly happy trading away some prospects if the return makes sense, and the very talented guys like Meloan, McDonald, Hu and so on I would part with in a second if it brought back someone who filled a need now. But a Sabathia rental that includes one of the best 3rd base prospects (if he's even still a prospect) in baseball in Andy LaRoche as well as arguably two of the Dodgers top 5 prospects to fill what is not a need at all... well, I'm glad they didn't do it either. Say what you will about Colletti but it's usually the deals that he hasn't made that have been his best moves.

I think any of us would part with some of these young players if the return made sense, but Colletti is not often trusted to know what makes sense.

Oh and Rosenthal is frequently wrong, literally, and it's in his best interest when teams wheel and deal, when they don't he gets frustrated. He's generally quite asinine.

What the Dodgers need is an offense upgrade, not more pitching. And if the person isn't any better than what they have in house, then I wouldn't do it. I would be happy to add Jack Wilson and give up a couple of decent prospects for him but not the farm for an overrated player.

PS: Oh, and why does Ken Rosenthal keep calling Matt Kemp and for that matter Andy LaRoche prospects? They are not prospects.

Did he expect the Brewers to package Braun or some of their other great young everyday players for CC? I'm not saying Kemp is in Braun's league yet but he's basically the equivalent for the Dodgers. There seems to be a double standard at work here.

"Our refusal to make any major preseason trades made it clear as day that the Dodgers would be in full fledged rebuilding/youth movement mode this year."

Then why did they sign Andruw Jones for 38 million over 2 years?

I think its equally as clear that the Dodgers were trying to win this year with the signing of Joe Torre and Andruw, and the article is accurate: they can't make a decision who to trade and who to keep.

"I'm not saying Kemp is in Braun's league yet but he's basically the equivalent for the Dodgers."

Not sure what exactly what you're trying to say, but you can't really compare Kemp and Braun. Braun is much much better. Personally I think Kemp is going to be a bit like JD Drew, overhyped since day 1 and won't fulfill the lofty expectations.

"Then why did they sign Andruw Jones for 38 million over 2 years?"

I didn't see Jones as a "win now" move, more of a high risk/reward scenario. Of course it was a stupid move considering they already had an outfield. Now Dodger fas have another reason besides Dreifort to hate Boras

We'll never know exactly how good Kemp is, because the Dodgers don't seem to have the slightest interest in finding out.

Ned Coletti is the worst kind of stupid: he recognizes that he's got some special youngsters and appropriately makes them darn near untouchable when dealing with other clubs. But then he turns around and loads the roster up with inferior and order-of-magnitude more expensive veterans to keep the young stars blocked and/or benched.

I don't know if Dodger fans realize what a handicap their GM is, but here's hoping they figure it out and start chanting for his head on a regular basis.

The odd thing is, Kemp actually produced not star but SUPERSTAR numbers last year, but the Dodgers are the only front office in MLB that didn't notice. It's a real head scratcher.

"Not sure what exactly what you're trying to say, but you can't really compare Kemp and Braun. Braun is much much better. Personally I think Kemp is going to be a bit like JD Drew, overhyped since day 1 and won't fulfill the lofty expectations."

I thought I was clear but perhaps not -- I said Kemp is not currently in Braun's league. That's one. Two, he's a five tool player with superstar potential. As sabr notes, he put up amazing numbers in less than a full season last year. I will say that a) yes, I could see him ultimately disappointing, but given that he didn't start playing baseball full time until a few years ago, and is still quite young, he should be given more time to develop.

Now, they are starting him on a full time basis, and I haven't seen much evidence that the team is actively trying to trade him more than it is other teams are asking about him, so I disagree slightly with sabr that the Dodgers haven't noticed how good he is and can be. If that was officially true he'd be gone by now.

yes, they signed Andruw, a move I was in favor of at the time because they needed more power and it pushed Pierre out of centerfield and before Furcal's injury out of the lineup altogether. He's been a total bust so far but could still turn it around.

But yes, we realize Colletti is overall not a real winner as GM. They have other people in their front office who are much more valuable.

"Oh by the way in case you haven't noticed, the Dodgers had a "Win Now, mortgage the future" mentality for about 20 years and its netted them barely a playoff win."

Absolutely. Not to mention all of the deals Fox made to get TV contracts signed, particularly the Piazza deal.

"The odd thing is, Kemp actually produced not star but SUPERSTAR numbers last year, but the Dodgers are the only front office in MLB that didn't notice."

Actually, I think the Dodgers may have been the only ones who did see that.

"Then why did they sign Andruw Jones for 38 million over 2 years?"

Probably because they listened to far too many "experts" like Rosenthal and some of the people who write here about a perceived need to solve their power problems.

"Personally I think Kemp is going to be a bit like JD Drew, overhyped since day 1 and won't fulfill the lofty expectations."

Huh? What? Kemp isn't anything like Drew. Kemp was a 6th round pick and probably didn't sign for an enormous contract out of high school. Also, I don't think anyone has accused him of not playing hard everyday. If anything, he is overly aggressive.

Kemp is better than Braun as a defensive player as well as with his legs. Now, whether he will produce the same kind of power Braun has is yet to be determined, but the potential is there.

I'm a dodger fan, and I am baffled.....

Believe me this: Laroach is never going to pan out and is very over-rated; Mcdonald is an upincomer but he is no where in the league of Laporta; Wade is decent and I have never even heard of Carlos Santana...

Maybe Mccourt is out of money???

Why should we believe you? You sound dumb. LaRoche should be playing every day. Expecting young guys to reach their potential in a utility-man role is unreasonable (ie Delwyn Young).

Back on topic: Jones and Torre weren't win-now acquisitions. As some have already pointed out, Andruw was a low-risk/high-reward signing that unfortunately ended up in the absolutely worst-cast scenario, and Torre has only managed the club for a matter of months. You can't expect a new manager to have his players marching to his rhythm in such a short period of time, especially one who makes the jump between leagues.

"Maybe Mccourt is out of money???"

McCourt isn't out of money. If he was, he wouldn't be spending all this money on the stadium.

"LaRoche should be playing every day."

I disagree with this. DeWitt has outplayed LaRoche and has been coming out of his slump. What I do think the Dodgers should try, and what I think they are leaning toward, is grooming LaRoche to replace Kent at 2B.

"Laroach is never going to pan out and is very over-rated; Mcdonald is an upincomer but he is no where in the league of Laporta; Wade is decent and I have never even heard of Carlos Santana..."

There is nothing overrated about LaRoche. He is a damn good prospect, and yes, he is still a prospect. He has at least the value of LaPorta, if not more because he is an infielder. McDonald is extremely promising, Wade has been excellent and Santana is a switch hitting catching prospect with a great batting eye who has absolutely zero chance of being in the Dodger starting lineup for the next decade if they do what is right by their best player.

Hey, I'm just trying to wonder why in the world the dodgers would not pull the trigger on this deal....

On another note, most of us that read this story and responded are dodger fans... so lets cut the crap and stop trying to make other people and other dodger fans look stupid....

I know LaRoche is still young and I know he tore up the minor leagues but he hasen't shown that he can be a consistant force in a major league line-up.... As of right know Dewitt is a better third baseman than LaRoche, that is why he is starting....

to the dodgers fans u guys need a new gm. i just dont understand that team, kind of like the other los angeles team. they both have great farm systems and plenty of money yet make bad personnel decisions and dont want to trade young guys ever. for the dodgers id say kershaw, billingsley, martin, kemp, and eithier should be untouchable. anyone else should b made available for a run at it. if your payroll is outrageous and your division sucks anyways u play to win.

The Braves should make a run for Jose Guillen. Maybe a trade a lower level prospect or two to the Royals for him.

"Huh? What? Kemp isn't anything like Drew."

My point was Drew, like Kemp, was at one point or another hyped to be the next big thing in baseball. I'm betting, just like Drew, Kemp will fail to be the next big thing and will end up simply an above average player hyped to be paid more than he's worth. Though I will admit his potential puts him in the untouchable bracket... not unlike Drew at the same career state.

"The Braves should make a run for Jose Guillen. Maybe a trade a lower level prospect or two to the Royals for him."

C'mon, if you're a Braves fn you'll know Moore won't throw in the towel like that.

not sure if anyone has been noticing but John Lindsey of the 51's has been doing pretty well...

17 HRS .310 AVG 70 RBIs 24 DBLS

despite his laast ten games that actually DROPPED his avg.

So my question is why keep Mark Sweeney who's hitting .094 when u can have an anxious 31 year old 6'2 245 pounder Lindsey who has has yet to be in the majors? He could provide MAJOR power off the bench (despite him being right handed and theyd have to get rid of Sweeney, a lefty) I have a feeling this might happen...(fingers are crossed)

"not sure if anyone has been noticing but John Lindsey of the 51's has been doing pretty well...

17 HRS .310 AVG 70 RBIs 24 DBLS

despite his laast ten games that actually DROPPED his avg.

So my question is why keep Mark Sweeney who's hitting .094 when u can have an anxious 31 year old 6'2 245 pounder Lindsey who has has yet to be in the majors? He could provide MAJOR power off the bench (despite him being right handed and theyd have to get rid of Sweeney, a lefty) I have a feeling this might happen...(fingers are crossed)"

They tried this with the Terry Tiffee experiment. Bringing up Lindsay would mean DFA'ing Sweeney because Lindsay isn't on the 40 man roster. It would also mean only 1 left handed option off the bench in the form of switch-hitting Delwyn Young, who is already the team's primary pinch hitter in any situation anyway.