Cain Hopes To Stay

As a Cubs fan...if the brewers are willing to lose what they have built up in the farm system + Prince Fielder for Cain, it would not break my heart. Cain would certainly be a pain the arse for a good amont of time, no denying it. Just a preference factor here, i believe...it would probably have to be a 4-1 deal to be something more like i'd prefer. once again...my opinion and i'm sure i can be wrong :)

From the Sacramento Bee:

"We may be in the heat of the pennant races, but the Giants' hot stove talk appears to be on fire. A lingering rumor was given new life Wednesday night. ESPN's Peter Gammons said the Giants could trade starting pitcher Matt Cain, 23, to the Brewers for first baseman Prince Fielder, 24, shortstop J.J. Hardy, 26, and another player. He didn't cite his source."

I'm a big Matt Cain fan, but that seems like an awful lot to give up for just Cain.

I dont get all the Matt Cain hype...sure he's young and locked up, but its not like he's an ace, at least not yet, while Bedard was arguably top 3 AL pitcher when he was traded. If Brewers trade Fielder and Hardy and prospect for him...I feel for them. I personally wouldnt give up more than Fielder straight up.

The Giants need a catcher? What about Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey?

Smoak would have to be a PTBNL, as he can't be traded until 1 year after he signed (and can't be a PTBNL until 6 months after he signed).

I think Davis + good pitching prospect might be a good start with the Rangers.

I also think the Cardinals are a good match with a package built around Colby Rasmus. Maybe Rasmus + Jaime Garcia or Jess Todd?

It is an awful lot, but I watched that segment on Baseball Tonight when Peter was talking about it and his point was that the Brewers are going to lose both Sheets and Sabathia, and somebody has to fill their place.

Cain is cheap and locked in for 3 years so he fills a long(er) term void. Because of that, teams will have to pay a hefty price tag.

Prince is about to get expensive, and JJ Hardy should be getting there as well. I'm not sure I like Prince Fielder in a trade because SF's growing system has a logjam of prospects at 1B. However, the Brewers certainly have some other exciting pieces they could trade as well in Alcides Escobar, Matt Gamel, Jeremy Jeffress, and Michael Brantley. It will be interesting to see how much the Giants could squeeze, but I would avoid Fielder more for depth reasons than talent.

A team I would rather see the Giants deal with would be the Rangers. If there was a perfect fit those would be the two. The Giants most certainly have to ask for Elvis Andrus, and Chris Davis to start the talks. On top of that the Rangers might have to add one of Engel Beltre or Julio Borbon. If I am the Giants I would love to also receive a low level pitching prospect, but I won't speculate on who that may be.

While I mention these trades, I certainly do not advocate the Giants trading Matt Cain. He is a special talent, and the fact that he is controllable for 3 more years at an affordable price is extremely valuable. 24 year old Aces should not be traded unless the trade offered blows the organization away. Of the aforementioned trades, both would astound me as a GM.

I've always been a big Matt Cain fan, but if they got Fielder, Hardy and another play for him, I'll go out and celebrate all night.

If there's anything the Giants have a surplus of, it's pitching. Tim Alderson, Madison Bumgarner and Kevin Pucetas are the real deal.

I think people forget how young Cain still is. He turns 24 in October and is younger than Billingsley (3 months), Lincecum (6 months), Hamels (10 months) and Volquez (15 months). The fact that he is a good #2 as a 23-year-old is amazing and he doesn't get nearly as much credit as he deserves because Lincecum is off-the-charts good.

Cain has always been regarded as having ace upside, his control just needs refinement. I mean, a career ERA of 3.79 in the majors over 641.2 innings, all before turning 24? You folks are spoiled if you don't think Cain is special. His top comparable at Baseball Prospectus is John Smoltz, and I think it is perfect comp for his upside.

I don't think the Giants should be looking at lower level prospects if they trade Cain. But they shouldn't be looking at guys that are already in their arbitration years like Fielder and Hardy unless the Giants really think they can compete within 3 years, which would be tough unless they picked up Hardy and Fielder and then signed Sabathia. Of course, then their payroll would be up in the stratosphere.

That is why I like matching up with the Cardinals. The Cards have an absolute stud prospect in Rasmus who plays a position of need for the Giants (CF, SS, 2B). Plus the Cards have a bunch of interesting arms that are near-MLB ready that the Giants could use to fill the open rotation spot.

"I dont get all the Matt Cain hype...sure he's young and locked up, but its not like he's an ace, at least not yet, while Bedard was arguably top 3 AL pitcher when he was traded."

You are joking, right? Bedard wasn't even close to Sabathia (in the AL when Bedard was traded), Lackey, Beckett, Halladay or Kazmir. When traded, I think the argument is there that Bedard wasn't even the ace of his own staff (that would be King Felix).

When healthy, Bedard is actually a really good comparable with Cain, just pitching from the other side. A strong 2 or a middling-weak ace. The difference is that Cain is 6 years younger than Bedard and has no injury history.

mymrbig wrote:

"Plus the Cards have a bunch of interesting arms that are near-MLB ready that the Giants could use to fill the open rotation spot."

Who do the Cards have that are near MLB ready? Jess Todd is about it. Jaime Garcia is supposed to have TJ surgery and there's not much other than that.

"Giants needs are... Power infielder, catcher, and some youth at OF in the farm system."

Most people agree that the Rangers #1 asset is catchers. And with you putting catcher in as a 'need' for the Giants, I assumed you were saying that they match up because of this common surplus/need.. otherwise I dint think you would write it.

As a Giants fan, I would not want to trade Cain. We've been talking about all the youth movement for us after Bonds, and we have that in our pitchers.

Add a couple middle relief/setup men or work from within and we're all set from our starters to Brian Wilson. I am very happy with a rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Lowry/Sanchez, or Hennessy/Correia.

The best way for the Giants to improve is to get rid of their old veteran contracts and hopefully sign a couple of decent infielder/hitter with a little pop via free agency.

If we have to trade, my trade baits that we may pick up someone decent enough would be lowry or sanchez, and maybe add a relief pitcher in there or something like lefty jack taschner

I'm a huge Giants fan. And for a long time I have said don't trade Cain. But recently I have changed my mind. We have so much pitching in the minors that one of the guys is likely to replace Cain.

Cain has good stuff...at times. But I have really watched him a lot this season and I've been disappointed. He walks too many guys at bad times. Gives up HR's at bad times. Even in the games he is electric, he makes HUGE mistake pitches and is just lucky to get away with it. I would be curious to see some stats that would blow me away. I'd also like to see some stats that help prove my case. But I'm not going to take the time so if anyone else wants to, feel free :)

Yes, he is only 23. But the guys that have been mentioned in return aren't much older. Fielder being 24, Hardy 26, etc.

My main thought is though, that the Giants play in the NL West. So that means there is always a shot at the playoffs. Even with the team we have now if we had a few extra pieces, we could be contenders (not meaning that our team is good now, just that the division is really bad). So take out Cain and get young major leaguers in return who can help win ball games. Then once we have a couple of guys set up, Free Agents will actually want to come to SF (see Carlos Lee) and we could be set up for a while. Even with Cain out of the rotation, it still is Lincecum, Sanchez, Lowry, Zito and Hennessey/FA. Sign a veteran 5th starter who's going to eat innings and in 2010 you have Bumgarner/Alderson to replace him.

"Do you realize Bedard was 3rd in ERA, 2nd in WHIP and 3rd in Ks in AL last year? How can you say thats comparable to Cain, whose best season is 122ERA+? He has yet to have a season in which he has a sub 3.50ERA, yet everyone treats him like an ace."

Did you read what I wrote about Cain? Cain isn't an ace, he is a top number 2 or an ace on a weak staff. Bedard, if healthy, is MAYBE a middling ace.

As for Bedard's single year stats, you were wrong about them. Bedard was 4th, not 3rd in ERA. Further, that was one year. For their careers, Cain beats Bedard in ERA, WHIP, and certain in age and injury history. Bedard hasn't proved that last year was anything but a fluke and that 2005 and 2006 are more indicative of what he can do. Further, his injury history automatically downgrades him.

"The Mets didn't give up that much for Johan Santana."

Cain right now is worth a bigger haul than Santana or Bedard.

I think Snyder/Litsch gets it done.

"A nice #2 starter with a lot of potential."

This is exactly why Cain is worth at least as much as Bedard, when you factor age and cost his value probably exceeds Bedards.

92-93:

I like you mentioning Litsch as for why the Giants should be asking a lot for Cain. Cain as managed to pitch 368 innings more in the majors and gets a lot more K’s. No health problems and have about 2 more years of a positive track record and experience then Litsch at nearly the same age.

"and Bedard was in the same stage like Haren...a borderline ace, that shouldve developed."

Except that Bedard already had an injury history, in the majors and minors.

"Cain right now is worth a bigger haul than Santana or Bedard."

Than Santana? Probably not, even with the contract differences. For Bedard, absolutely.

"Litsch and Cain is the same sentence is a horrendous comparison."

Litsch is WAY to reliant on contact to be compared with Cain. Take 2 GB pitchers, Derek Lowe and Jon Garland. You know why Lowe is better? Because he can reach back and strike a guy out at will if he needs to. Same reason why Joe Saunders, who I think is an excellent pitcher with great stuff, isn't as valuable as Ervin Santana. The second those grounders turn into seeing eye singles, your pitcher is in trouble.

Juice what your saying is true. But I read it as him comparing a player he knows and does not think poorly of to a player he hardly ever sees. I think it was fair enough to compare and ask. I also think it a great contrast to show just how different Cain is. Like you did.

Lets face it there have been a lot of years were a Litsch type pitcher would have made us Giants fan real happy. This isn’t one of them though.

(a tremendous hitting division)

92-93:

The NL West has not been horrendous for all of the last 3 years. And if looking at #1 or #2 pitcher for post season purposes They need to be able to K a team to shut them down. So it kind of is the end all be all … unless you want to always be an also ran.

As for your difference Division card you might want to look at the run support and defense they get.The Jays have had a way better D to help a contact pitcher in that same time frame. Plus Litsch has not show he can put together back to back seasons yet with out a problem. Add to that if Litisch is lucky he will be about 26 or 27 tell he gets a similar track record the Cain already has.

You might not make the trade for Cain, and I am very cool with that, but his value is several levels above Litsch.

"K pitchers are not the be all and end all. Matt Cain also has a 3.7 BB/9 rate (to Litsch's 2.1) this year, and has an inferior K:BB rate to Litsch as well. Cain's GB% is 33%, while Litsch's is 48%."

Sid Fernandez had a very good career as a fly ball pitcher, not that Cain is one.

Anyway, one can deal with a higher walk rate if people hit against them at a .230 clip like with Cain. I mean, how do you think Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson made their careers? Cain is, without a doubt, a superior player to Litsch. No one is saying Litsch sucks, but it is the difference between one of the best number 2s in baseball and a 3-4.

"Or imagine - Fielder + Hardy for Scott Kazmir. That would perhaps entertain both teams"

Give me Cain over Kazmir anyday. You call Cain overated, yet Kazmir is the overated one. Kaz is electric, no doubt. But he has an injury history, he is a 5 inning pitcher because he walks and strikesout so many, and pitches in a deep count to everybody. Cain is a horse, innings eater with ace stuff and no injury history. Kazmir is a better version of John Maine right now. Here is a typical Kazmir line....

5.2 IP, 2 runs, 4 hits, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts... Kazmir is a good pitcher, but he has a ways to go before he is the pitcher everybody thinks he is.

"The Mets didn't give up that much for Johan Santana. Lincecum is better than Cain as well."

Matt Cain is a ton more valuable in a trade right now then Johan ever was during the trade talks last winter. And its not even close. It would be like discussing a bounty for Adrian Gonzalez and saying, why should they give up that much for Gonzalez when the angels got Tex for less?

The answer is obvious in both cases. Adrian Gonzalez has more value right now then Mark Teixeira does in the trade market, and a 23 year old high end number 2 starter that is still improving that is locked up cheaply for 3 years has more value then a 29 year old, high end number one who is demanding a 150 million dollar contract to complete the trade.

"Cain and Villalona for David Wright. Whatdya think."

I wouldnt have a problem with it, but the Mets prob shouldnt take it. Im not to familiar with their system, but do they have a need for 1b and a replacement at 3b?

Should have said, David is not the same hitter in 08, as he has been since hitting the big leagues.