Elias Ranking Update: NL Starters

Wow. That Lowe is a Type B and
Lohse is a Type A shows some serious weakness in this formula. That said, you would think such a ranking makes the Dodgers more likely to make a significant push at him, particularly if Penny isn't right.

How in God is Smoltz a type anything?

"So does that mean the Brewers will get 4 first round draft picks next June?"

Yes. Plus their own pick, would give them 5 overall. Melvin must be licking his chops. 5 top 40 picks has got to be sweet compensation for losing your 2 stud pitchers.

Bet the Astros are thrilled with this. They can conceivably sign Sheets and Lowe or Garland and only lose one pick. And they'll get at least one pick back when Wolf leaves, and maybe two if Wolf continues to pitch well and bumps himself up to Type A status (he's right on the A/B cusp).

"Teams like the Dodgers, Tigers, Orioles, and Braves may be searching for starting pitching and may have unprotected first-round picks to lose. "

Much more importantly(to me anyway), the MFY are searching for starting pitching and have an unprotected first-round pick to lose.

What if a team with a top 15 pick signs two type-As?

I'll say it again ... this ranking system is absolutely awful. How in the world did the powers that be agree to this? There is no rhyme or reason rooted in rational thought behind the rankings.

The Smoltz comments:

a) The rankings count the past 2 years, and he was really good last year.

b) They pad your stats to account for time on the DL. No idea what the adjustment is.

To get an idea on how significant the DL adjustments are: Carl Pavano is ranked higher than about 25-30 other pitchers. Granted none of the names below him would impress you but we're talking about a guy with a total of 22 innings pitched over 4 starts during the time period analyzed.

It would be awesome to see the Astros sign Sheets and the lowe/garland and only lose one pick and could possibly land a sandwich pick or even a 1st rounder if Wolf gets to type A. Does anyone know what he would have to finish with to become a type A? I really think they are going to try to resign him, especially after the games he has pitched lately, but if they don't that will be nice to add that extra pick. They are 7-1 in his starts and pitched a gem last night.

But I was looking at the formula and it takes into account W and win loss percentage. What happens to a stud pitcher that has a bad record because of his team. I don't know if it would matter that much, but a pitcher like Matt Cain could very well be a type A with some more W's, but I am not sure. He just seems like too good a pitcher to be considered a type B

AA - I was comparing the results of 2008 between Aybar/Izturis vs Cabrera. In addition to costing a fraction of Cabrera the Angels were able to break in Aybar and not miss a beat. Cabrera in 2007 was a better offensive player but as you pointed out, that was out of the ordinary. As an Angel he has consistently averaged a 700-720 OPS avg.

2008 Izturis - 691 OPS
2008 Aybar - 700 OPS
2008 O Cabrera - 690 OPS

My larger point was that Cabrera was replaceable. Meanwhile, the Angels would not have replaced Garland's contribution. Adenhart wasn't ready. They would have been forced to take on some reclamation project with who knows what kind of results or overpaid through an early season trade.

Finally, Garland is a mild disappointment. Playing in front of a much improved defense and shifting away from Chicago should have shaved close to half a run off his ERA. Instead his ERA has risen almost half a run compared to last year. Unless things turn around he will be a complete non-factor in the post-season. He served his purpose, I'm just slightly disappointed his performance wasn't better.

Article on ESPN about the Brewers owner acknowledging Sabathia has a big payday coming. He doesn't say anything one way or another if the Brewers will try to keep him, but it is at least interesting to note his commitment to senior leadership. Not counting raises, the Brewers have $20M+ coming off the books next season from Sheets and Gagne. If they trade away Fielder it's not inconceivable they're heavy players for CC.

"Yeah... but that means they'd be in rebuilding mode again. "

They will be, they should also unload Prince for a ****load of talent if they can get it. He's not going to sign long term.

"They should try to trade prince for a young pitching prospect with upside in the way that hamilton netted edinson volquez."

Fielder would net a larger catch than Hamilton. I like the idea of Cain for Fielder even if it's a fans rumor. A deal that makes a lot of sense for both teams and I think the Brew crew would probably get another piece with the deal. But imagine if they get Cain and resign CC. CC/Cain/Gallardo has the markings of good times.

"how about prince+ for bj upton and matt garza?"

Not worth it for the Rays. Garza and the strength of the starters is one of the biggest reasons for the Rays season. If the Rays make a trade using pitching they should use their farm, they still have a scary amount of talent down there not named David Price.

Well the Rays do need to step up the hitting if they fail to win the big one. There in the bottom half of runs scored and average for the American League. And there aren't exactly a plethora of cheap young run producers. But they'd be better off replacing Jackson in the rotation.

Tim, I'm fairly certain that Boras made it a stipulation before signing with St. Louis that the Cardinals NOT offer arbitration to Lohse.

How about Prince Fielder/JJ Hardy/Bill Hall and Dave Bush

for Tim Lincecum and prospect

The numbers weight 2007 and 2008 equally.

Oliver Perez, through Saturday, ranks 35th in Total Games, 30th in innings, 32nd in wins, 49th in winning percentage, 23rd in ERA, and 9th in K's

Kyle Lohse ranks t15th (TG), 21st (IP), 9th (Wins), 25th (WP), 44th (ERA), and 37th (K)

Derek Lowe ranks 19th (TG), 16th (IP), t40th (W), 71st (WP), 24th (ERA), and 26th (K)

Upon further review, there is an error in the spreadsheet, and Lowe is being shorted 10 wins which is killing his winning percentage. I'll look into this and repost sometime this week.