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Olney On The Free Agent Market

ESPN's Buster Olney has a great blog post up today with his musings about this winter's free agent market.  Let's take a look.

  • Industry people believe the current state of the economy might temper offseason spending.  We've already heard the rumblings that typically high-spending teams like the Angels, Tigers and Mariners backing off or holding the line on payroll.
  • Olney feels C.C. Sabathia could draw a $140MM offer from the Yankees, but something more in the $90-100MM range from the Angels or Dodgers.  So he may have to decide whether playing close to home is worth $30-50MM.
  • Olney extols the virtues of Derek Lowe, who could get a deal comparable to Jason Schmidt's three years/$47MM.  That was two years, ago though...I think Scott Boras gets Lowe $18MM a year.
  • Olney considers this a strong market for starting pitching.  Maybe so, but we might see a lot of multiyear deals for injury-risk hurlers after Sabathia and Lowe sign.
  • Olney likes the match between the Cardinals and Brian Fuentes.  Other teams that could consider Fuentes: the Rays, Indians, and Brewers.
  • Olney is convinced the Yankees will offer Bobby Abreu arbitration but nothing more.  Abreu is comfortably set to earn Type A status.  If the Yanks offer arbitration, they'll either get Abreu for one year and $16MM or so or they'll get two draft picks.  In contrast, Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman have said they expect the Yankees to let Abreu leave.
  • Olney guesses the Red Sox will offer Jason Varitek two guaranteed years with a vesting option for 2011.  The Boston Globe's Amalie Benjamin wrote in August that she expects Varitek to re-sign.


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Comments

Even though Abreu isn't getting any younger, what other OF options do the Yankees really have? I definitely see them offering him arbitration.

I'd be surprised to see anybody offer Varitek anything more than what the Sox offer, so I expect he'll stay in Boston. This winter Boston will make a move to acquire Varitek's successor, so his playing time in '10 will probably become very limited. Still, he's a leader on that team.

Odds are best that Tek stays with the Sox and the scenario will be pretty much the way Beau says. Say hypothetically the Sox acquire Salty, Salty would probably catch 4 pitchers and Tek would probably consistently catch 1 pitcher, probably Matsuzaka. Basically a modified version of the Varitek/Mirabelli tag team.

Yanks should add:

1. M. Ramirez DH
2. V. Guerrero RF
3. Krod CL

Z

Lowe at 18 mil a year? I doubt it. I say the most he gets is 3 years 48 mil.

I wish Olney would have commented on whether or not teams that miss out on the "deep" FA pitching market would be more/less inclined to deal the farm away for some of the young names that have been floated around?

Yankees 2009 Roster

1.Johnny Damon LF
2.Derek Jeter SS
3.Mark Teixera 1B
4.Alex Rodriguez 3B
5.Hideki Matsui DH
6.Xavier Nady RF
7.Jorge Posada C
8.Robinson Cano 2B
9.Brett Gardner CF

Sabathia/Burnett
Wang
Chamberlain
Mussina
Hughes

This roster would be easily attainable and looks really good top to bottom. Having Brett Gardner hitting ninth is ideal because if he gots on base chances are he's gonna score, and if he doesnt it doesn't matter because the top of the lineup could start something up.

Why wouldn't the Yanks offer Abreu arbitration? They really have nothing to lose. Worst case scenerio - they have Abreu for one year in a "prove it" year where he is playing for a multi-year contract. Best case - they get two prime draft picks. As a Yankee fan, I actually prefer the former more than the latter. It's hard to find someone who gets on base and hits like Abreu....

"Yanks should add:

1. M. Ramirez DH
2. V. Guerrero RF
3. Krod CL"

Where do you get the idea they have any chance at those 3, especially Vlad?

AA,

The kid is obviously like 12 and living in a dream world...I have a better chance of winning the Mega than the Yanks do of signing all of those guys.

I have a feeling that the Yankees will offer Pudge arbitration..... he will reject it.... and sign with the Mets. Thats just my opinion...but i dont think the catchers the mets have are doing well for them right now IMO... Pudge might be able to change that since he is a future hall of famer...

There is no limit on the number of/type of free agents the Yankees sign. They could sign Teixeira, Sabathia, Sheets, K-Rod, Ramirez and Smoltz if they wanted. No rules prevent that.

Offer Abreu Arbitration and either get a guy with a high OBP BA and around 100 Rbi's a year or get 2 draft picks. Either is good but i would like to see him re-sign with the Yankees for another year. He is very valuable to the team. And i dont think he was injured at all this year.

Cards should sign Abreu to bat behind Albert. Play him in LF and trade Ankiel for pitching.

"... trade Beltran to the Yankees ..."

I was actually thinking a bit about this the other day. Lets say the Mets miss the playoffs again and decide they need a complete overhaul; Beltran is probably the biggest name guy they'll determine expendable. Given his remaining deal ($55.5MM over 3 years) and the presumed asking price, not too many teams would be able to get in line. Yankees have an obvious need in CF and Beltran is just about the best there is behind Sizemore. Only problem is that pesky NY rivalry thing.

(Only other team that comes to mind is the Cubs and I'm not sure moving him to an upper tier NL opponent is really a smarter move.)

Actually...XD and Tru are both wrong:

If fewer than 14 Type A or B players elect free agency, no club may sign more than one such player.

If 15-38 Type A or B players elect free agency, no club may sign more than two such players.

If 39-62 Type A or B players elect free agency, no club may sign more than three such players.

If 63 or more Type A or B players elect free agency, "the Club quotas shall be increased accordingly," according to the basic agreement.

Additionally, a team may sign as many Type A/B FA's as they lost that year, regardless of the other restrictions.

From: http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=2678840&name=law_keith&univLogin02=stateChanged

"(Only other team that comes to mind is the Cubs and I'm not sure moving him to an upper tier NL opponent is really a smarter move.)"

Cubs can't take on that contract. There is just no way, although they would obviously LOVE to have him.

"Cards should sign Abreu to bat behind Albert. Play him in LF and trade Ankiel for pitching."

I think this would be a good idea if he will take a 1 year deal...two at the most. With Ankiel about to hit arbitration, I think they Cards should shop him around. Maybe package him with Anderson and see if you can get a good, young SP.

Tim,
what do you think about the Brewers trying to target Bobby Abreu? Move Hart to CF and bat Abreu 2nd after Hart or Escobar.

Thanks Zebraheaded. Didn't realize that was the rule.

The Cardinals will not trade Ankiel for pitching and will not get Abreu. What the Cardinals need is a SS with a good bat until Wallace will be ready to be in the majors, so STL can move Glaus to SS. The other thing STL need is another starting pitcher. Put Weinwright in as the closer and that will settle 2 needs, a closer and free up money for a starter because of them not having to pay Mulder or Clament anymore. They will only do that tell either Mache or Perez is ready to be the closer. Plus, watch for STL get a type-A free agent, for the money they are saving from not having to pay Encarnacion.

"Put Weinwright in as the closer and that will settle 2 need"

Wainwright is far more valuable as a starter than as a closer.

about how many type a/b free agents will there be this yr?

They should offer Abreu arbitration. As for CC I'd love for the Yanks to get him. I doubt theyre going to pay him 30 million a year. Why would the Angels want C.C? They have the best rotation in the AL and will need the money to resign their own guys, now and for the future. I think Burnett is more desirable than Sheets or Lowe. I wont mind him signing with the Yanks if the Yanks cant sign CC.

Does anybody know why Tim stopped the posts on the 2009 MLB Free Agents? The posts were bombarded by Yankee fans,lol.

Buster Olney is foolish. He is off by $100 million on CC.

alright, my grandfather used to be a grocery bag deliver for the babe in the 40s and i was born in ny, therefore, a yankee fan. i moved to ca in 2000, and the only games i get are dodger games, so i eventually became a dodger fan.

Something amusing I heard the other day. Neil Huntington was being interviewed by Bob Walk I think and the topic of free agents came up and Walk said wil you mak an offer to CC Sabathia(Note: I am pretty sure he was joking) but Neil said something about how CC is a great pitcher and we would love to add a player of his stature. He then said what I believe to be his trademark line of "If the oppurtunity would present itself I think it is something we would have to explore."

Anyway I doubt either was serious I just found it rather amuzing and thought I would share.

"Why would the Angels want C.C? They have the best rotation in the AL and will need the money to resign their own guys, now and for the future."

Garland is a free agent, Escobar is probably out until the AllStar Break and when he comes back he will probably be in the bullpen. Angels could package up a guy like Weaver or Adenhart (and possibly GMJ to free up salary) in a package for a reliever or a slugger. That leaves a slot open for 1 pitcher... Why not get CC? They have money available and Arte Moreno has been known to surprise.

CC
Lackey
Santana
Saunders
Weaver/Adenhart

I would love it!!!

"the mets should sign O-Dog, trade for Randy Winn, and trade Beltran to the Yankees. then sign Krod."

Ugh. I just vomited in my mouth 3 seperate times.

NJM, I guess it is possible they move Beltran, but if they miss the playoffs I would look into moving David Wright. He is young, could fetch a huge bounty, and is the most expendab;e (imo) of the 3 centerpieces. You just don't find CF's that do what Beltran do. Wright has also been the one thing people hate more then anything else, un-clutch. Not to mention it seems like his approach at the plate has taken a negative turn from all around great hitter with some power, to good power hitter with gaping holes in his swing. It might be smart to move David (if they find it necesarry to make a drastic change) before his numbers go south with his new approach, which so far, for the most part, they havent.

Also, for the reasons you mentioned, David could be put on the open market and pretty much any team looking for a 3B would be in the mix, given his reasonable contract and age. The Brewers, Reds, Astros, Dbacks, Giants, Tigers, WhiteSox, Twins, Indians, Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Rangers and probably a couple other teams I forgot could get involved. Out of Reyes, Wright, and Beltran, Wright seems the easiest to replace. SS's and Cf's like Reyes and Beltran are too rare.

some good laughs here:
• every angels fan (#1 through inifinty) wants to throw "GMJ" into every package. like anyone would take him at less than a salary-compensated deal. (not to mention that little issue of no-trade)
• troy glaus at shortstop!!!!!
i love it! aramis ramirez at second base. prince fielder in CF.
possibilities are endless!!

@ the david wright thing, the Dodgers would be a good fit, problem is it would definitely have to break up the young core of Billingsley-Broxton-Kershaw-Loney-Martin-Kemp-Ethier.

I think something like:

Kershaw, Loney/Ethier, and James Mcdonald/Scott Elbert could very well get Wright out of New York.

This deal would help the Mets because they are in great need of good young pitching, and kershaw and elbert/mcdonald would be a great boost for them.

Problem is, this deal would never get done, and im glad that it wouldnt, because the kids are worth much more than one big hitter.

It would be much like last offseason with Miggy and the Dodgers. If the Dodgers had traded Kershaw, Kemp, Laroche (he sucks, but whatever) for Miggy, there is zero chance the Dodgers make the playoffs this year, because it would have completely killed the chemistry of the team.

Whoa. If David Wright became available I would GUARENTEE Matt Cain would be offered as a starting point between the two teams. I don't think the Mets can offer Wright because there is no replacement, but if he were available it would be interesting if the Giants could build something around Cain and Winn.

I know this is difficult to do, but could any Mets fans suggest a "reasonable" package they may accept between the Giants and the Mets for David Wright? I do not want to offend anyone with a suggestion, but I do think there is a plausible match.

"troy glaus at shortstop!!!!!"

Do you know anything about the guy's history?

"Kershaw, Loney/Ethier, and James Mcdonald/Scott Elbert could very well get Wright out of New York."

Wright, as good as he is, isn't worth that deal.

"every angels fan (#1 through inifinty) wants to throw "GMJ" into every package. like anyone would take him at less than a salary-compensated deal. (not to mention that little issue of no-trade)"

Of course we do... he has no purpose with us! We have 6 outfielders!!! He's not horrible like everyone thinks... He's actually had some huge hits for us. We would love to free up some of his salary. Ive said this before, but I guess Ill have to say it again... Of course no team is gonna take on his full salary, who would? They can trade him along with 2/3 of his salary (meaning the Angels would pay him about 6.6 mil and the other team would cover the remaining 3.3 mil). Im not being unreasonable, I mentioned a trade of Weaver or Adenhart (2 guys who could possibly be #2-3 starters). In () I put the possibility of GMJ for freeing up salary.
As for the no-trade clause, dont you think GMJ would want to start? He doesnt want to come off the bench 1-2 times a week... He wants to play everyday and it's not gonna happen with the Angels!

Tru, you can write as many times as you want that the yanks can only sign two type a's...but it will be wrong every time you write it. The team can lose it's 1st and 2nd round draft picks, and after that the team losing the type a guy just gets a 1st and 2nd round compensatory pick. So if the yankees wanted to sign 9 type a's, they can.

Live and you learn. I never knew there existed a rule that limited the number or types of FA a team could sign. Good to know. Thanks.

Ok let me state that I am a Yankee fan and hate/could care less, about the Mets. They just choked again this year and I'm sure everyone is dissappointed. My question to you all is:

Why would the Mets who have more money than most teams in baseball want to blow up the team when they have the ability to afford any FA on the market?

And why would they trade Wright who is perhaps their best player? Not only is he NOT the reason they collapsed but he's probably the most popular player on the team, they're moving into a new stadium and he would be the face.

Minaya wants to win NOW and I can't see him trading away as big of chip when the vault door will be opened this winter.

Has anyone ever heard any mention of the Yanks perhaps trying Nady at 1B? he's played their in the past. probably about 100 games over the last few years. That might give us some room in the OF where we can have Abreu in RF, Damon in LF and Matsui as the DH. I'd let Giambi walk. May a line up such as:

1B-Nady
2B-Cano
SS-Jeter
3B-Arod
C-Posada
RF-Abreu
CF-Cabrera/Gardner
LF-Damon
DH-Matsui

I just don't beleive in giving Texeira a deal for more than 5 years/100 mill

The Juice,

Not that I would be in favor of a David Wright trade, living about 15 miles from his old stomping grounds, but Daniel Murphy is a natural 3rd baseman. He's trying to change positions because he is blocked by ....... (Guess Who!) ........David Wright!

Juice...

Daniel Murphy had a nice couple of months but please never compare him to David Wright again...though I'm not a big Beltran fan I don't think they should get rid of him unless its next year when Fernando can replace him...maybe...the Mets continue to choke but blowing up the team is not the answer...in my opinion...i think we just need to solidify the bullpen and what better way to do that then to sign K-Rod...give him the money he wants and he will definitely join team Latin-America...re-sign Ollie and we should at least be in position to choke again next year

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