Abreu Wants At Least Three Years

Abreu would be a great idea for the Reds. Be able to put him in LF where he doesnt have to cover much ground, and he could lead off for the Reds. Im sure he would cost 12-15 million per year but if we can still get a Right-Handed Slugger either by trade or spending more cash, Id have no problem with Abreu leading off for the Reds

I'm a fan of Abreu. I think if we could get him for a 2 yr deal w/ an option then great. Otherwise I'd like to see them move Nady to right, Melky/Gardner to CF and Damon to LF. I could tolerate another year with Damon in LF. If Nady has another good year I would offer him an extension. But if Abreu walks then I think signing Texeira would have to be a priority. I think a good line up would be.

Damon
Jeter
Cano
Arod
Texeira
Matsui
Nady
Posada
Melky/Gardner

I think Cano needs to be moved to the 2 or 3 spot.

"I think Cano needs to be moved to the 2 or 3 spot."

Me being a Jays fan, I would love to see this happen.

B. Abreu to rays would be a good pickup

LF C. Crawford
CF B. Upton
RF F. Perez/B. Abreu
DH B. Abreu

z

hey bs:

I know cano doesn't hit well against you guys. But of all the teams in the mlb he had the most hits and rbis against the redsox and hit .293 against them. I'm not too worried about what he does against the blue jays dude.

by the way...does "bs" stand for "bluejays suck" or "blows sheep"? just wondering...

If Abreu wants big money he takes the arbitration offer from the Yankees. If he wants a 3 year deal he is going to take less money.

1 Year w/Yankees - $16+ mil

3 Years elsewhere - $36 - $40 mil

Makes sense for him to take the 1 year deal and try for a 3 year deal next offseason. Of course next season he will be 35.

I remember when the Rays traded him to Philly. That still has to be one of their dumbest moves ever made.

I know he doesn't walk but he CAN hit for avg and a higher avg equals a higher obp. OBP is overrated. Giambi has a great obp but I wouldn't take him over Cano. Cano can hit.

In 06 he hit .342 and had an obp of .365

In 07 he hit .306 and had an obp of .353.

Cano doesn't strike out a lot. He's averaged 65 so in all 4 years.

Please don't get so caught up in the numbers (OBP) w/o considering what it really means. And really what would you rather have a #2 or #3 guy who can collect 180 hits and drive in runs w/o striking out much. Or a guy who draws 80-90 walks but strikeouts 120 times and hits below .250?

I

YanksFanSince78,

You failed to mention that for two straight years Cano's average has gone down 30 points.

I think Cano would benefit from being moved to a higher spot. I think when he's batting 7th or 8th he's not seeing good pitches. He doesn't pass on bad pitches becuase he's so good at putting the bat on the ball. By sandwhiching him in between a jeter, damon, arod, abreu he will seeing more pitches in the strike zone.

I'm NOT comparing him to Vlad Guerrero OVERALL but Vlad, like Cano, doesn't take to walks very well but is notorius for being able to put the bat on the ball. Vlad avgs only 30-40 walks a season but had a lifetime .389 obp avg. That should tell all of you OBP stat geeks that you don't need to draw lots of walks to have a high OBP avg. I think a player like Posada or Damon can thrive better hitting 7th or 8th than Cano can.

Hyro...your an idiot. He's 26yrs old.

He hit .342 in his 2nd year. Hit .306 in his 3rd but INCREASED his power and production numbers to 19 and 97 as a # 7 and 8 hitter. He had 1 "bad" year that would be a career year for a lot of good 2B. Give me a break!!!

Guerrero has a 8.9% walk rate for his career. Cano has a 4.1% walk rate for his. Guerrero can hit 30+ home runs also, and he doesn't have a short porch to help him too.

Cano career BA and OBP:

2005 .297 .320
2006 .342 .365
2007 .306 .353
2008 .271 .305

So he improved greatly from 05 to 06 now it seems to be going down hill.

"We're having the dumbest arguement ever, but you mean to tell me you think Giambi is a better overall hitter than Cano?"

Just stop. It's not even close. Can Cano get better? Yes. But you are certifiably insane if you would take Cano right this instant.

What are Yankee fans going to say if Cano's numbers go down for a third straight year I wonder?

Giambi Eqa 2008: .301
Cano Eqa 2008: .247

Giambi VORP 2008: 32.5
Cano VORP 2008: 8.9

OB% *over Average* for both years was just .023.

So if you had 1 player to hold on to if Cano and Giambi were FA you would choose Giambi over Cano?

"More balls jus dropped in"???

Thats the whole meaning of any hitter hitting well unless the ball is dropping over the wall...hahha..So now we're going to discredit bloop hits and "seeing eye" singles...wow. You guys probably know this: is there a stat for a good, clean all american solidly hit , legitimate hit...haha...whooo.

Please....start rooting for the oakland a's..billy beane has done a great job with his obp oriented offense.

Invalid....

If you're going to use stats then let's use stats. Take away an abissmal April when Cano hit .151 then his overall batting avg would be .297 for the season. Maybe not being allowed to play winter ball hurt him and he got off to a slow start.

April .151
May .295
June .287
July .327
August .290
September .287

Oh yeah and he has a lifetime batting avg of .303...but as you guys say he's a "horrible" hitter..lol

XD23:

My point was that despite Giambi having a much better obp he and Cano still had the same number of times where they were successful at getting on base, moving runners or advancing them.

In a game situation w/ a runner on 1st or 2nd would you rather have a contact hitter at the plate who will put the ball in play or a guy who strikes out 25% of the time?

There's more than one way to get on base. Does it matter if it's a walk or an actual hit?

"Please....start rooting for the oakland a's..billy beane has done a great job with his obp oriented offense."

Billy Beane is a genious, Cashman can't win with 200 mil.

"So if you had 1 player to hold on to if Cano and Giambi were FA you would choose Giambi over Cano?"

Cano can improve and plays a more premium position, but in terms of overall hitting ability right now, Giambi is a far, far better hitter. If I was JP Ricciardi I would take Giambi, if I was Cashman, I would take Cano.

"Using stats w/o using common sense is deadly. How do you win ballgames? By driving in runs."

Listening to Joe Morgan, et al is deadly

Billy beane is a genius?

Has he won anything?

Who's their best hitter right now? Jack Cust who has a great OBP @ .375 on a 111 walks but struck out 197 times and has a bavg of .231

Genius huh?

I'm not saying Giambi isn't a good hitter. What I am saying is that based on what our team needs Cano is more important to me than Giambia is. He would be a great pick up as a DH for a lot of teams. But for the Yanks he's too old, a defseive liability, would create a log jam at the DH spot and is too one dimensional as a hitter. i would rather have a 1B that hits for average and puts the bat on the ball than a guy who hits hrs but strikes out a lot.

"Billy beane is a genius?

Has he won anything?

Who's their best hitter right now? Jack Cust who has a great OBP @ .375 on a 111 walks but struck out 197 times and has a bavg of .231

Genius huh?"

The Oakland A's have averaged 90.5 wins this decade on a low payroll. I'd say thats pretty effin genius. And with the prospects he has gotten with recent big deals, i'd say they look pretty good for the future.

Billy Beane is dumb. Every time he gets a good player he trades him away. Look at the pitchers Oakalnd could of have:
1.Harden
2.Blanton
3.Duchsere
4.Haren
5. Some other guy

Greg Zeigler, Street

If they just added a big bat they could of easily contended especially with that scary rotation.

bs:

I asked you before if 'bs" stood for "bluejays suck" or "blows sheep" but now I know it stands for "bull sh*tter". There's no way you can truly belive that Cust is a better player than Cano so I'll let it go. I know your just trying to bait me into a stupid arguement.

Rank Team VALUE* Revenue* Op. Income*
1 NYY $ 1,306 $ 327 $ (47.3)
2 NYM $ 824 $ 235 $ 32.9
3 Red Sox $ 816 $ 263 $ (19.1)
4 LAD $ 694 $ 224 $ 20.0
5 CHC $ 642 $ 214 $ 21.4
6 LAA $ 500 $ 200 $ 15.2
7 ATL $ 497 $ 199 $ 28.1
8 SFG $ 494 $ 197 $ 19.9
9 STL $ 484 $ 194 $ 21.5
10 PHI $ 481 $ 192 $ 14.3
11 SEA $ 466 $ 194 $ 10.1
12 HOU $ 463 $ 193 $ 20.4
13 WDC $ 460 $ 153 $ 43.7
14 CHW $ 443 $ 193 $ 30.6
15 CLE $ 417 $ 181 $ 29.2
16 TEX $ 412 $ 172 $ 17.2
17 DET $ 407 $ 173 $ 4.6
18 BAL $ 398 $ 166 $ 7.7
19 SDP $ 385 $ 167 $ 23.6
20 ARZ $ 379 $ 165 $ 5.9
21 COL $ 371 $ 169 $ 26.2
22 TOR $ 352 $ 160 $ (1.8)
23 CIN $ 337 $ 161 $ 19.3
24 MIL $ 331 $ 158 $ 19.2
25 MIN $ 328 $ 149 $ 23.8
26 OAK $ 323 $ 154 $ 15.4
27 KCR $ 301 $ 131 $ 7.4
28 PIT $ 292 $ 139 $ 17.6
29 TBR $ 290 $ 138 $ 29.7
30 FLA $ 256 $ 128 $ 35.6

So by showing that Oakland ranks 26th in value, you think you are proving that Beane is a bad GM? Look at their win totals in the last 9 years. Beane has fielded more competitive teams than the Rays and Marlins. I don't care if he hasn't won a World Series. Just look at the playoffs this year, anything can happen. The Rays???? Seriously? This is the first year they have won more than 70 games. The Marlins won the World Series twice, and look what they did after. They blew it up, this is what small market teams have to do. They can't afford bloated contracts like your precious Yankees. For Beane to average 90 wins in the 2000s is pretty freaking good considering what he has to work with. He values players that are undervalued by other teams, therefore, they are cheaper, i.e. Jack Cust, who people like yourself think are terrible baseball players.

"Hyro...your an idiot. He's 26yrs old.

He hit .342 in his 2nd year. Hit .306 in his 3rd but INCREASED his power and production numbers to 19 and 97 as a # 7 and 8 hitter. He had 1 "bad" year that would be a career year for a lot of good 2B. Give me a break!!!"

Ok man, you need to at least understand stats if you're going to try and use them in an argument.

You've said I don't know how many times that Cano is a .300 hitter, but that number is propped up by the .342 he hit in 2006. He's never hit close to that in any of his other 3 years(no, .306 isn't close to .342). He's probably a .280-.290 hitter, which is fine, but with a walk rate as low as he has, his OBP isn't going to be any good. His career OBP is .335, not very good at all. You mention Vlad, but Vlad hasn't walked less than 51 times since 1999, Cano has never walked more than 39 times in a season. Vlad is a career .323 hitter, in fact he's hit under .316 just three times in 12 years. Cano has had one year over .306, and that looks increasing like a fluke season, much to the disappointment of this Cano fantasy owner. Vlad owns a career OBP of .389 with a .323 career AVG. Cano owns a career OBP of .335 with a .303 career AVG. This is an important thing to look at, it's called isolated discipline, or IsoD. Vlad has an IsoD of .066, which is alright, but not spectacular. Cano...his IsoD is .032, which is horrible. You do not want a guy that gets on base 33% of the time hitting 2nd, that means 67% of the time he's not going to be on base for the heart of your order. This is why Bobby Abreu is a good #2 hitter, his career OBP is .405. That makes a big difference for you offense.

You say that Cano increased his power from 2006 to 2007....you couldn't be more wrong if you tried. His SLG%(you know, how power is measured) dropped by 37 points, that's not a good thing and certainly not an increase. He did hit 4 more HR in 2007, but it took 135 more AB's to do so. I looked at his XBH%, meaning the number of his total hits that go for extra bases. His numbers stayed basically the same from 2006 to 2007, but only because his average dropped by 36 points. If you take his XBH per AB, you can easily see he's dropped off every year since 2006, from 11.8% in 2006 to 10.8% in 2007 to 8.7% in 2008. Let's throw out his poor April(that helped to kill one of my fantasy teams). His line would be .297/.323/.448 for an OPS of .771, not bad for 2B, but not an allstar level. His XBH per AB is still down even taking out his worst month, down to 9.6%. That is a bit of a worry.

I'm not saying that Cano is a bad player, I like the kid. But his numbers are trending downward, and that has to be a concern. As for the comment about his down year being a career year for alot of "good" 2B, that's insane. Just to grab a few names, it would have been 69 points lower in OBP than Orlando Hudson's career average, 52 points lower than Howie Kendrick's career average, 34 points lower than Mark Ellis' career average. Again, those are career average OPS numbers for those guys, not their best year. So Cano's 2008 season is what it is, a bad year. If you throw out April, it was an average year or so, but not alot more than that.

I agree that Cano is more valuable to the Yanks than Giambi is, I don't know that anyone is really arguing that point. But OBP is a very important part of the game, and Cano sucks in that department.

Not to beat a dead horse, but:

-The Yankees need to upgrade defensively, this lowers RA as well as saving pitchers' arms.

-Nate McClouth's bat is in no way worth his defensive shortcomings, no matter what those are. Melky isn't really ideal defensively, but he's sufficient.

-Left field and right field are where the problems are located. Perhaps moving Melky to one corner and relying on Gardner would be beneficial. With a proper 1st baseman, Cano trying at 2nd, and A-Rod's avg defense at 3rd, the team could easily sustain the lower run production.

-I never thought I'd actually say this, but perhaps Jeter in LF wouldn't be a poor idea. His defense might be better, it certainly wouldn't be worse, and it would allow for a better defensive SS. No more "past a diving Jeter!"

-Pitching. Pitching. Pitching. Pitching. Repeat ad infinitum.

-Bobby Meachum needs to not be near the 3rd base coaches' box, particularly during games and with runners on base. Unless he's coaching for another organization.

-Girardi is fine. Let him and Cashman put the team together. Lock Hank in a room, or at least forbid his commentary lest he actually attend a game or two.

-Last, but most certainly not least:

Let's Go Yan-kees!

Gatling:

Cano hit .297 his rookie year, .342 his second year and .306 his third. Even with a poor 4th year hitting .271 he still has a lifetime .306 avg. How is he not a legitimate .300 hitter if that's what he's done over a 4 year period?

Subtract a horrible April where he hit .151 and his avg for last year (08) would've been .297

Those are not numbers I made up.

"Subtract a horrible April where he hit .151 and his avg for last year (08) would've been .297."

Players should be allowed to throw out their April stats if they are bad because games in April are meaningless and have no bearing on certain teams not making the playoffs even though they have 200 million dollar payrolls.

"Subtract a horrible April where he hit .151 and his avg for last year (08) would've been .297."

Players should be allowed to throw out their April stats if they are bad because games in April are meaningless and have no bearing on certain teams not making the playoffs even though they have 200 million dollar payrolls.

Intersting note: If you take away Adam LaRoche's April his line is .290/.356/.552 that is not too shabby.

Also defensively McLouth and Melky have the same ability and the same problem in that they both take bad routes and get bad jumps I would say Melky has a better arm.

BucSox - I generally agree with that. Though the other bonus for Melky is his Range Factor, about 15% higher than McLouth's. To be taken with a grain of salt, obviously.

"You know I'm tired of all of you stats geeks using arbitrary numbers and formulas to pick apart players. I would take 9 players like Cano who hit for avg, and have gap power before I would take nine players like Giambi who get walks, but also strike out over 100x and can't hold a .250 avg."

Then you would have a really, really bad team.

"You can take a harmon Killibrew type player and I'll take a Paul Mollitor."

My team will beat yours.

Killebrew 143 OPS+ career
Molitor 122 OPS+ career

I've never held Yankee fans (generally speaking) in high regard. This thread though tops it. I can't believe all the idiotic comments. Seriously - these must be BoSox fans pretending to be Yankee fans just to make them look stupid.

Couple of suggestions going forward for pretty much anyone that has posted in this thread with "yank" as part of their user name:

1. If you are going to use stats please don't make them up. A few seconds of checking will prevent you from looking like a total a$$.

2. Please don't be selective with your stats. As entertaining as it is to know that Cano hit 345 on Tuesdays, when facing a left handed pitcher, where it was partly cloudy that's hardly germain to our discussion.

3. Might want to read up on what most stats folks and respected scouts look at. Here's a little hint - BA is considered at the bottom of barrel. If all you have is BA and you ignore better stats you will look like a fool. While there isn't a perfect stat, there are several acceptable stats to use. Remember, you are NOT as smart as Bill James.

"You know I'm tired of all of you stats geeks using arbitrary numbers and formulas to pick apart players. I would take 9 players like Cano who hit for avg, and have gap power before I would take nine players like Giambi who get walks, but also strike out over 100x and can't hold a .250 avg."

The reality is you can't win with 9 Giambi's or 9 Cano's you need a balance. Example look at the White Sox they have the Giambi team but couldn't possibly win with it because there is no consitency. Then you have the Twins who have the team of Canos they can't win because they have no real power threats. (I should note here that in both cases there are exceptions)

Bs:

What does a 200 mill payroll have to do with anything? Stop hating on the Yanks bcuz of our money.

I'm not exscusing his poor performance in April, but what it means is that he had a really bad month but was much better overall. That indicates that his bad year MIGHT be the exception and not the norm. But I guess if you're an asshole who wants to paint a picture to get his point across then you can use any stat anyway you want.

Funny how people give Giambi so much credit for his walks and crucify Cano for the lack therof but ignore the fact that Giambi strikes out over 100x and can't hit above .250. I guess those stats mean nothing huh?

If the only way Giambi can get a runner in from 2B is by hitting a hr then I guess thats ok right?

For what's it worth Cano had the fewest strikeouts (65)than any of our current starters. But that's not important. Walking is MOST IMPORTANT..Striking out over 100x is cool though.

"For what's it worth Cano had the fewest strikeouts (65)than any of our current starters. But that's not important. Walking is MOST IMPORTANT..Striking out over 100x is cool though."

Cano is so good, that instead of striking out with a runner on first, he'll roll over on one and make 2 outs. Yes, by not striking out, he can advance runners sometimes, but a strikeout is an out just like any other out, its an out.

"What does a 200 mill payroll have to do with anything? Stop hating on the Yanks bcuz of our money."

Payroll is meaningless? You guys can't build a pitching staff with the deepest pockets in MLB.

"Be honest here if you have the choice between McClouth, Damon, Melky, and Gardener in center who do you take?"

How about you keep both Melky and Gardner and start the hot hand in center. you keep Damon in left. and then the following year hopefully Jackson will be ready to take over center and you can either pick a free agent LF or check out the trade market.

"Baseball seems to follow these fads where they fall in love with stats like OBP and OPS. What numbers were used to evaluate players before we had these formulas? Hits, runs, rbis and BAVG. To say those numbers are insignifigant is crazy and short-sighted."

Im done for the night because I just laughed myself into a coma.

So let's talk about McLouth vs Cabrera.

Using WS (which factors in defense) we see:

Cabrera = 5
McLouth = 27

How about VORP?

Cabrera = -4
McLouth = 47

Please, please, please tell me how anyone can even begin to compare the 2 players. Cabrera is a AAAA outfielder while McLouth is a top 5 CF'er. Why "hope" that Jackson will eventually be that good when an opportunity exists to get someone who is actually that good?

If you can move Kennedy, Cabrera/Gardner and other spare pieces for him you make that trade all day long.

I'd like to interject a few things here, from an outsiders (Royals fan) point of view.

I don't think guys like Dunn and Cust help their team. They both have very high OBPs but neither has help carry their team to anything. There was a time when Abreu didn't hurt his team defensively (which Cust and Dunn severly hamper their teams now). At the time Abreu wasn't hurting his team with his defense he was also a SB threat. Cust and Dunn are definately not that. At this point in his career Abreu is a spare part. He is defensively deficient and can't steal bases anymore.

I also don't view Ks as an awful thing. For slow guys like Cust and Dunn it's bad because of the prolifically high rate at which they strike out. Their OBP would be a lot less empty if they made outs via contact 40 more times a year than they do. They hit the ball in the air and don't ground out much so their DPs wouldn't increase much, but their Sacrifices would increase by a noticeable amout.

OBP is great, and Ks aren't as ugly as they seem if you aren't hitting into DPs. Finding that happy medium is finding a good ball player. The huge OBPs would be much more productive if they cut 40 Ks off their totals.

I am always happy when Tony Pena Jr strikes out with men on base, because if he hits the ball it's going to be a DP. Alberto Callaspo, Mark Grudzielanek much the same thing. No high OBPs, but low Ks because they make a lot of contact. What OBP they have is built on BA, but it's so empty it's not helpful.

bjguess:

Who was comparing Cabrera to mcLouth?

This is so frustrating. I'm not discrediting McLouth in any way, shape or form.

I'm saying that we have CF'rs who are serviceable and IF I were inclined to trade for a player using , God forbid, Cano or a top prospect I would do it to get a top of the line pitcher.

I could careless is Melky hits .250 next year. As long as he plays good defense and has a good at bat (moves the runner, puts the ball in play, etc) then I will count on Abreu, Jeter, Arod, Posada, Nady, Damon and Matsui to carry the offense.

Get it? I'm not comparing mcLouth to anyone of our guys or disrespecting him as a player...

Jeez louise.

Yanksfansince78, I couldn't help but notice in your comparison of giambi and cano you said what wins games, driving in runs. 2008 giambi 96 rbi cano 72 rbi. Seems like you are contadicting yourself

bjguess said:

"OPS and OBP is not a fad. It's called evolution. You can fight against it all you want but the models consistently show that those numbers are a lot more important than RBI's and BA".

You're kidding right? Games are still won according to scores the most runs, not who has the most walks right?

Cust has a .375 obp with a 197 strikeouts and a .231 bavg. He hit 33 hrs and drove in 77 rbis. His bavg w/ risp was .230

How much is he helping his team?

Melvin Mora had a .342 obp but hit .285 drove in 104 runs but only drew 37 walks w/ 70 strike outs. His bavg w/ risp was .340

You mean to tell me Cust was a better assett to his team than Mora? Really, because he walked 111x?

Youre breaking down all the stats but youre ignoring each of their styles.

bluejaysfan:

Jeez...Giambi hit 5th in the lineup and Cano bats 7th and 8th. Who gets more opportunities? Who's more protected in the lineup Giambi batting in front of Matsui, Nady, Posada, Cano or Cano batting in front of Molina, Gardner, Cabrera.

I'm not saying Cano will match Giambi power for power or rbi for rbi. But to insinuate that obp ALONE makes you a better hitter is a poor statement.

Milton Bradly led the AL in OBP @ .439.

Miguel Cabrera had an OBP of .349.

Does that make Bradley a better more valuable hitter than Miguel Cabrera? I think most would say no. So reason dictates that you can't value a player solely by their obp. if that's the case then contact Billy Bean I'm sure he's willing to trade your 90 rbi hitter w/ a .350 obp straight up for Cust in a heartbeat.

yanks fan, I never said anything about obp being the only way to judge a player i simply commented on what you posted. I personally feel ops (obp +slg) is a much better way to judge a players offensive ability in the case cano .715 giambi .875