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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Greinke, Manny, Burnett

A look at what is being written around the Blogosphere...

  • Royals Authority feels it will take a Johan Santana-type deal to trade Zack Greinke this offseason.
  • Goat Riders Of The Apocalypse takes an in depth look at the Cubs '09 roster and what changes could be made.
  • Mets Geek (or is it Rays Geek?) thinks the most important move for the Mets this winter is to sign Manny Ramirez, but only for three-years and an option.
  • River Ave. Blues agree that Manny should only be signed by the Yankees if it can be done for less than five years.
  • MetsBlog calls Orlando Hudson a "must sign" this off-season.
  • The Chuck Knoblog doesn't see how the Yankees can sign two big free agent pitchers and a first baseman and still get the payroll down to $180-185MM.
  • Drunk Jays Fans does not see any way A.J. Burnett will return to the Jays next season.
  • First And Goal From Second Base wants to see the Twins trade Jason Kubel for a reliever.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.


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"a Johan Santana type deal"

So he's saying Greinke can be had for a weak-hitting OF and three average pitching prospects? Where do the Indians sign up?

Dear Royals Authority,

I get your point, but I think you should be saying that Greinke will be costing a Haren or Bedard-type deal. I think the Johan Santana deal is a little bit of an underestimate.

The guys Twins got arent panning out but they still all were top 100 prospects at the time. 4top 100prospects with one of them being top 50 or top 30 guy would probably get Greinke as well

Top 100 NL East prospects?

Top 100 Mets prospects.

Johan pretty much demanded to be traded to NY or Boston. The Twins wanted to move him to the NL. The Mets were in a great spot, because the Twins had no other choice, in a sense. Even if only one of those guys works out, it is well worth one year of Santana.

The Twins other choice was to hold Santana. Granted, this is hindsight analysis, but Minnesota is a playoff team with 2 picks coming this offseason if Smith hadn't settled for the Mets deal.

Is it worth a playoff spot, and a possible pennant or WS championship, in addition to the 2 first round compensation picks?

Because that's what the Twins gave up with Santana.

And Metsblog is quickly becoming sort of a joke. Atleast to me. They're writers, besides Matt, are pretty awful. They post nonsense there, and the annoying part is that a lot of the posters seem to have less knowledge of the game then the readers. I barely go over there anymore. I checked in today, and the first thing I see is a "rumor" about the Mets trading Beltran for Cano and Ian Kennedy. Seriously? This is a rumor?

And yes, according to Metsblog, a weak hitting 2B coming off two season ending injuries in a row, asking for over 10 million a year is a "must have guy". Listen, I love Hudson, but is his glove/ comedic ability in the clubhouse really worth 8 figures? Especially when you would have to eat Castillo's 6 mil just to get him here? So we are paying atleast 16 million a year for a 2B who is on the wrong side of 30, coming off back to back hand/wrist injuries, which may weaken his already questionable offense, instead of using that money to fix the bullpen, sign a LF, sign a SP or two, and upgrade 2B? I dont know. I would rather go after Mark Ellis I think. Less hype, less money, same production.

Agreed on Ellis. Great glove, could be the bargain of the winter.

"The Twins other choice was to hold Santana. Granted, this is hindsight analysis, but Minnesota is a playoff team with 2 picks coming this offseason if Smith hadn't settled for the Mets deal."

Exactly. It is monday morning QBing. Nobody thought the Twins would make the playoffs, even with Santana. Santana put them into a horrible situation, and a rookie GM possibly panicked. But going back to last year, I would have taken Gomez, Humber, Guerra and Mulvey over 2 picks (or possibly one second round pick), especially on a team that wasn't going to compete anyway (which is what everybody thought. Everybody thought Detroit/ Cleveland would run away with the division and nobody even mentioned the Twins). And one year into the deal, it isn't as if these guys are all busts.

It is just hard for me to figure out that many teams that would be willing to give up more then the Mets did for Santana, knowing that you had to commit an insane and dangerous amount of money to him. This is franchise killing money is Johan gets hurt. The kind of deal that is really hard to recover from, even for a big market club. Having the chance to have Santana is a great oppurtunity, but the deal he was demanding to seal the trade is not an oppurtunity, it is more of an obligation.

If i were the Mets, and I REALLY needed to sign Manny, i wouldnt even even bother with the option year for his contract, id try to get him for 3 for more money or bite the bullet and give him a 4 year deal and hope the numbers stay productive. if you leave anything to chance with manny, anything, hes gonna make you pay for it later with his nonsense

Any team that signs Manny has to be completely devoted to keeping him happy through the duration of his contract, no matter what. In signing Manny, you make that decision. Whatever that takes, you do. A happy Manny is worth almost any amount of money.

If I am Dayton Moore, an offer for Greinke starts with a Top 10 pick and also includes a Top 30 pick and at least a Top 100 pick. That's probably too little, now that I think about it.

"That's probably too little, now that I think about it."

Yes and no. Greinke has a few major problems, first of which is being in Kansas City where he's almost unknown. And unfortunately perception of value is included in actual value. His second major problem is it doesn't seem like he's hit his full potential yet. This year was a huge step forward, but he still is pretty far from being an ace.

Point being, I think it's not a good idea to trade Greinke now. Of course a Dan Haren or Eric Bedard style package would be the argument of taking the bird in hand. I kinda like the idea of shopping him during the all star break next year.

That Twins blog advocates trading Jason Kubel for Robinson Tejada. As a Royals fan, where do I sign up?????

I would think that Laffey, Betancourt, Francisco/Guiterrez, Tice and Shoppach would be enough for Greinke.

And I would be more than willing to acquire a legit starter for the push in 2009.

moving greinke would not be a good move. a mid-season deal for a pitcher of caliber would get more value than trading him in the off season, i think you could get a haren/bedard deal possibly more depending on the desperation of the team. it is ashame that he does pitch in kc because he is a very good pitcher that many people do not get to see

us royals fans need to get overselves for a couple of reasons:

A) We're not going to get all of the Rangers Top 10 players for Grienke. Maybe a few but not all of them as some fans seem to believe. and...

B) Trading Grienke won't be a sign of the Royals being the Royals. When Beltran was traded there was no "real" plan-certainly no minor leagues. If we can get some guys that can play along with a team of Hosmer, Moustakas, Melville, Duffy, Cortes, Soria, Gordon and Butler... well that would be better than a Grienke who would likely be on the down side come 2011 or 2012.

basicslop-

1. Greinke will easily net a Haren-type return. A little primer: Anderson, Carter, Gonzalez, and Cunningham are all top prospects. Eveland and Smith are 4-5 starters who both put up low/mid 4 ERAs (with some control struggles) in full seasons as starters for the A's. Greinke might net slightly less, but not significantly less. Depending on the team, it might be "the entire farm system".

2. Why would Greinke be on the down side come 2011-2012? Unless the Royals extend him, he'll hit FA after 2012, but that can be fixed by an extension. He'll be 27 in 2011. Not really the average age in which pitchers start declining (although there are exceptions).

Look, Royals fans, I hate to break it to you, but Zack Greinke is not in Johan Santana's league, in every sense of the word. A career 34-45 record with a 4.28 ERA and 1.34 WHIP is not worth 4 solid minor leaguers, including 1-2 top prospects. And don't use the usual "you've never seen him pitch" excuse. I have MLB Extra Innings on DirecTV, and watch every game I possibly can. I saw at least 6 of his starts this season, and was all but impressed. Is he a good pitcher? He can be. Is he an Ace? Oh, hell no. His career will be as a solid #3 or a shaky #2 at best.

Some other stats:

FIP: 4.09
DICE: 4.02

soxfan93- Who said Greinke was comparable to Johan Santana? I said Greinke's trade value was through the roof, which is true. Young, team controlled, relatively healthy TOR starters are very rarely moved, and when they are, they fetch big bounties. Haren is better than Greinke, but Greinke shouldn't fetch significantly less. I'd wait one more year to trade Greinke if the offers weren't of a similar (but slightly lower) nature.

Santana fetched less in a deal because of the extension that reduced the number of bidders to essentially 2-3 teams. Greinke won't require a mandatory extension.

nrmax--

I'd say Ellis is NOT similar offensively right now to Orlando Hudson. Career stats are similar, but in recent years, Ellis is an offensive downgrade from O-Hud. And, he's coming off that shoulder injury that caused him an early exit from the 2008 season. But then, he is an amazing defender. He might be a better value than Hudson, but he's not better with the bat. His value to the A's is HUGE in what good defense does for that young pitching staff.

I do agree that O-Dawg is NOT a must-sign for the Mets though. I dont see the DBacks doing the Castillo for Byrnes swap, and thus I'm thinking the Mets will have to eat salary to move Castillo. 16MM++ per year to cover 3B with that kind of offensive production is just not worth it.

And, isn't Daniel Murphy playing 2B at winter ball?

melonis rex, that wasn't directed towards you. It was meant more for people like George Purcell. I'm sick and tired of Royals fans talking like Zack Greinke is the best pitcher in baseball. Actually, he isn't even the best pitcher in his own rotation.

Again, this wasn't directed towards you, but Royals fans in general.

soxfan93, you sir, are an idiot. It's simply called a pitcher growing as they get older and more mature, which is exacty what Zack has done. Zack Greinke, who had one of the 20 best FIP's (this is the point where I'd rattle off names of who he is better than, but you don't reveal which "sox" you root for) in baseball this year, is yes, an ace. I guess you think pitchers at 24 and 25 years old stall out in production? Using career stats for a young pitcher is pretty stupid, FYI.

And he is most DEFINITELY the best starter in his rotation. A #3 starter? So you disagree with about everyone in baseball who thinks he's a TOR starter in the making (and he's already there)? And which starting pitcher in his own rotation is better than him? If you say Gil Meche, please take a drink of your own medicine and look at the career stats of the two.

One last thing. Why do you think all the Royals fans are going off and saying they should get a ton? Perhaps it's because they are under ZERO pressure to trade him? Because the only way Dayton will deal him is unless he is blown away (which he has admitted, BTW) by a deal he'd be dumb to refuse?

jason kubel for one reliever? that's lunacy. kubel was a top prospect in the vein of mauer/morneau when he was first coming up. then he got hurt, and now he's finally putting full seasons together, the power numbers are rising, and he's entering his year 27 season. and someone would think it logical to trade him for a relief pitcher? no wonder these guys aren't actually running teams. i'm all for trading kubel, but for a young third baseman or shortstop. you find relievers in the minors, through the rule 5 draft, or the waiver wire. you don't trade outfielders with power (30+ HR power to be exact) for a reliever.

I wonder how Jim Hendry and Dayton Moore would match up a deal for Grienke? I know it's not going to happen but im just curious.
Maybe Donnie Veal, Tony Thomas, Tyler Colvin, Sean Marshall

"I know it's not going to happen but im just curious."

Unless Hendry got Moore really, really drunk, you are right, that would never happen.

The way I see it, Zack isn't getting traded unless part of the package is with a player you don't want to see go anywhere (from the other sides perspective). Obviously I don't know that for sure, but DM's quotes make is seem like the haul will have to be utterly ridiculous for a trade to go down.

What is Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders worth? Wow, I'm ready to trade both of those guys, rebuild a good farm system over night and put some cash towards CC to shore up the open spots.

I'm one of the skeptics. I don't see ace when I look at Grienke. I see a good pitcher who could be great or could be mediocre. Only time will tell if he reaches his potential.

"I don't see an ace when I look at Greinke."

I'm exactly the same way. Personally, from what I have seen, I'd rather have Luke Hochevar.

nrmax88 - completely agree with you about metsblog. a bunch of buffoons over there on a daily basis. there are maybe three posters in total whose posts are cogent.

disagree on mark ellis. i'm not an o-dawg fan especially at that price but i think omar can do better than ellis.

melonis - yes, murph is playing at the afl.

soxfan you are oblivious. KC does not make Greinke sound amazing, he is. Greinke can throw 100 mph out of the pen. Greinke has a curveball that runs up about 59 mph. He just completed his second full year in the starting rotation and his first was when he was 21 years old. Greinke has the stuff. His first senior high school game 40 scouts came to see him play. We positively know he has the stuff. Also Greinke is very young. He would be hitting the market at a strong time and given his age: which is 25 this october he would draw in a great amount of "close to ready" prospects. But i don't even see it happening after Moore saying his time to win is now. Greinke hits the bank this winter one happy man.

soxfan by the way want to know how he did in that high school game? he threw a no hitter.

I don't care what he did in HS. Anyone can excel in HS and burn out in the pros. When/If he throws a no-hitter in the majors, like Jon Lester, or even Clay Buchholz, then we'll talk.

Right...because no hitters in the MLB determine success. Should have known better. You too royalswin...don't say stupid crap like what he did in high school. I had a buddy who threw a no hitter in high school but didn't even go to college to play baseball.

Did I just read Hochevar > Greinke? That's probably one of the funniest things I've read in a while.

your missing the whole point in all of this. Greinke has the stuff, the tools, and the ability to be a staff ace for any team in the majors. Greinke's 13-10 record would have been much better had he had some more run support. And have you even seen Hochevar pitch? The kid barley throws over 90. Grienke is leaps and bounds ahead of Luke.

"Boston would not even trade Lester for Johan straight up from a value standpoint alone and thats a fact."

You say this as if you are saying something bold and controversial. What you just said is every bit as obvious as saying 1 plus 2 equals 3. But if Johan was being traded now, nobody would expect them to get a package of Masterson, Lowrie and Lester, so I dont really have any idea what you're getting at. I bet you were just dying to trade that package for Johan. Looking back one year later and saying you are glad they didn't pull the trigger doesn't make you smart or anything. Lots of things change in a year. Lester, Lowrie, and Masterson have all increased their value dramatically in the last 12 months.

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