Jake Peavy Rumors: Tuesday

Doesn't make sense for the Dodgers to deal Billingsley. The guy is a straight up stud making no money, who has proven his stuff at the major league level. It makes no sense to trade him, especially if you have to include other players to get it done.

I proposed this idea yesterday. My guess is it would not happen, but how about 3 top line prospects kotchman and KJ, for Adrian Gonzalez and Peavy. There would be the power hitter and we would still have cash to throw at a number 2 starter and a good to average left fielder. I know am in dreamland.... but it would be nice.

I'd like to see a deal along the lines of McDonald, Elbert, Hu and Ethier for Peavy and Greene, with Greene becoming the 2B for the Dodgers next year.
That would give a rotation of Peavy, Bills, Kuroda and Kershaw, with Penny/ Schmidt as potential 5th starters before even hitting the FA market.

"He says Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, and Rich Hill are available from the Cubs."

Of course they are available. Why would the Padres, or any team, want these players, let alone want to trade an ace like Peavy for players of this ilk?

Think the Padres would take Corey Patterson, Hee Sop Choi, and Matt Clement?

They aren't getting Billingsley.

Just plz keep him in the NL, Towers.

They should go after Kershaw and McDonald, true stud potential and at least a chance they are moved, Billingsley isn't going anywhere.

Yeah, I'm guessing Towers wasn't really bowled over when he read who the Cubs were making available.

Towers has no other choice, but to trade Peavy, at the orders of the owner, since the owner wants the payroll cut now.

Nixa,

You are absolutely right that Towers got caught. I still think you guys have the best chance at landing Peavy, but, it does help to know that if your GM wants to hold on to your top prospects and chooses not to deal for Peavy, at least the Astros aren't totally out of it yet.

It was Towers who contacted Hendry. If it were the other way around, it would make more sense that Dempster and Hendry are bluffing. I agree Dempster testing the market is just trying to drive up his Cub contract he likely (not a sure thing) signs.

Several posts rip Hendry and the Cubs on possible names floated and they are 'garbage' and how dare the Cubs think they can land Peavy. Read above, Towers called Hendry. Jim is not going to tell Kevin he really dosen't have any use for Jake because he has trash. Hendry is just doing his job. It has been mentioned the Braves, Dodgers and Cubs are teams Towers has talked to about Peavy. I think we all know the Braves could land him if Wren wanted to do it. I think we all know Colletti could land him if he wanted to vastly overpay to do it. So far, Frank has said he will not trade certain players for Peavy and so has Ned. Besides, Towers is not overly thrilled to trade a guy like Peavy in his division. The Cubs are high on Peavy's wish list. They just don't have the horses like the other two teams do. Like I and a few others have said previously, it would likely take a three way deal for the Cubs to pull off a Peavy trade, if at all. Even that would be slim. But don't blame a GM when the other guy called asking.

Oh boy! Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, and Rich Hill?! Gee golly! Would they throw in a signed Mark Prior rookie card too?!

Seriously, it's just annoying to hear the Cubs even mentioned in these talks until someone actually coughs up a decent name.

Felix Pie is about as wanted in Major League Baseball right now as Felix Hernandez would be in the NBA.

Seriously, at least we're hearing good names in the Braves and Dodgers scenarios. Until a Cubs writer coughs up something actually plausible, I'm just going to assume they're in there because Peavy said he likes the Cubs, but that there's no real possibility for a match.

If they're not going to suggest Marmol, Ceda, Vitters, Soto, etc. (in other words, someone with actual value), then why bother even taking these bits seriously?

At least Pageian and 100 and a few others understand the real situation. Also, you are correct 100. The divorce is a factor. They say she is going after a lot of coin. But hey, the Cubs have baseballs 'trash'. No other team has that to worry about it. Please...

The divorce is a factor in their Payroll but they could just as easily not exercise Brian Giles' option and not attempt to sign Hoffman which would more than cover the expense of Peavy. They have offered a contract to Hoffman and are planning on picking up Giles option so the money is there.

cwilli,

While those moves might allow the Padres to keep Peavy while keeping payroll low this season, there are still 3 more seasons on Peavy's deal at significantly higher salaries than his 2009 salary. That also wouldn't allow the Padres to add any young talent to the farm system that needs to be the basis of their rebuilding project.

While the Padres may be able to keep Peavy this year, it makes little since to do so assuming they can find a reasonable offer somewhere. They don't NEED to trade Peavy, but its obviously the smartest course of action, all things considered.

This isn't that hard:

1. Towers called Hendry!!!! Lets all repeat that...TOWERS CALLED HENDRY! There is something that Towers would like that the Cubs had. It may be Cedeno, or it may be Marmol and Soto..who knows??? But the fact is that Towers doesn't make the frickin call if he doesn't have interest in something the cubs have.

2. Hendry saying Cedeno and Pie are available in the trade? Does that surprise ANYONE? They are the two guys that Lou has voted off the island...Cedeno isn't goint to replace Theriot, and Pie isn't going much time because of the Fukudome/Johnson platoon, and they are both out of options! Pie probably has the biggest upside of any of the Cubs CF options, but they can't afford to not have a spot for a 48 mil contract in Fukudome. Pie is the odd man out...whether I like it or not.

Pie probably would do very well in San Diego, with the big field where he can use his legs offensively and defensively. And I still can't believe people are giving up on a former blue chip prospect because he hasn't done very well in 200+ at bats. Thats very, very shortsighted. Lets take a look at Ryne Sandberg's first half a season...he must be "trash".

I think Hendry is probably saying "Who do you like from our system?" Towers answers and tells him, and Hendry responds "You can have any 3 or 4 guys in our minor league system not named Josh Vitters". Then, Towers looks for another team, and just keeps the Cubs in the back of his mind in case no one else will beat that offer...which they almost certainly will...oh well. But please stop the contant stereotyping of Cubs fans...its really old and pathetic.

rollingdeuce,

Not that I don't agree on the Colvin name drop issue you clearly need to read what the quote says, "Not much, and probably not enough to get Peavy on their own" he is saying that the names he is dropping still are not good just that they have some value. so your are getting annoyed by someone saying that the Cubs still don't have enough to get Peavy buy they have more than everyone says they do. I personally think the Cubs farm system sucks and it has for years they clearly don't produce major league talent all that often, becuase most of it has to leave and produce somewhere else to be any good. I would love to have Peavy in the cubs rotation, but I just don't think it will happen. So stop getting angry at dumb trade rumors thats what this blog is about a wish list for baseball fans.

"I personally think the Cubs farm system sucks and it has for years they clearly don't produce major league talent all that often, becuase most of it has to leave and produce somewhere else to be any good."

Frank - While I would tend to agree with you (usually), all you have to do is take a look at the Cubs roster this year to know that is not really the case lately. Wood, Marmol, Soto, Theriot, Samardzija were all guys from the Cubs system. Thats a pretty good crop of talent from the farm system. The Cubs would have been lucky to win 70 games this year if it werent for their "sucky" farm system.

if the Padres don't get exactly what they want for Peavy, i.e, Hanson or some other top level prospect, is it even worth thier time?

Alright there is a lot of bickering about the Padres Payroll here. For starters, its going to be 50-55 million dollars. Which is a 23-28 million dollar reduction. But even keeping Peavy and Giles, we have just over 40 million committed to next year. So payroll is not a major factor as you are all making it out to be.
The motivation for moving Peavy is that he signed his deal expecting to compete every year, something that the Padres can not do in the current state. Its not a must to trade him, but it would benefit the team greatly by moving him. But that still mean that it has to be done.

Corey Brock had those figures about projected payroll, and look at the Tim's offseason outlook for the Padres salary figures (keep in mind Bard was released, and rumor has it Hairston is not far away).

Correction:
Paylast year was 73 million dollars, so the reduction is 18-23 million.

Also with Arb raises to Gerut and Hensley it will be about 42-43 million committed, 45ish if Hairston is not released. Still below what the projected payroll.

Unfortunately for all of us MLB teams spend millions of dollars on scouting and do not use trade rumor blogs when figuring the value of prospects. I highly doubt that after one bad year with limited ABs at the major league level a player like Pie loses as much value as some people on here think. There are a lot more factors to consider.... He has tore up AAA and has far above average defense for an MLB Center Fielder. The Cubs have soured on Pie because they are in must win mode and can not afford to play him consistantly if he doesn't produce, but I think it is safe to say most MLB Scouts still see the upside to taking on a young player such as Pie, espeically if they are in a rebuild mode and have the luxury of getting him the ABs he needs. I'm not saying he is going to headline a Peavy deal, but I think it ridiculous how people on here talk about him like he is worthless. As much as us Cub fans over value our prospects (every teams fans do) the opposite to that arguement is how other teams fans under value prospects. Most prospect names that get tossed around on these blogs are because they are the flavor of the month or year usually after they put up big numbers in the minors... I just think it is funny how most of you talk like you have actually done the scouting.

JP,

Red Sox will not get Peavy. No chance, no way, not happening. I don't see Yankees and Angels overpaying for Peavy. Braves are considered still the favorites.

gch,

Every now and again your type of post is given and needs to be eched in some people. Good points. Where is a fan's REAL evaluation. Let's take Pie. I would bet you in Hendry's heart he has not given up on Pie. Lou seems to have had with Pie, but I bet not Jim. The team is not looking 3-4 years from now.

Now it is up to another team's scouting department to analize what they feel about Pie or whomever. Then trade talks can include or exclude that given player, or simply move on. Guys like Felix Pie and Rich Hill are no longer top tier Cub prospects, but they are still young enough to get their act together for the Cubs or another team that thinks they can 'flip the switch' on their potential. Would they be center pieces for say a Peavy trade, no. But it is not unrealistic to believe Pie can still make it happen. Every team has timeframes and the Cubs are in a win now mode, as you point out. Pie was rushed to MLB and so was Hill. In Hill's case, it is documented lefties take longer to develope. Then again, Hill and/or Pie could end up on that long list on every team's history of 'could of beens'. The real scouts of another team will determine a player's value. Again, good points.

"If the Padres are smart, they will wait for at least a month or more before trading him. Once some of the big name FA starting pitchers get signed, Peavy's price tag will go up."

Or, the few teams Peavy will approve will move on (Cubs: Dempster; LAD: Sabathia for ex.), and the Pads will lose whatever leverage they have now.

Ask the Twins about that re: Santana.

Felix Pie still has some trade value, coming from a non-Cubs fan. He plays a premium defensive position in CF at a high level. The further baseball gets away from the steroid era the more defense at premium positions will be valued. He also still has the potential to turn into a decent hitter with good speed. The Padres could give him a full season to prove his worth.

Rich Hill does not have much, if any value, he is going to be 29 when the season starts and is not showing that he is going to be able to figure things out based on his recent performance.

Just to elaborate on cwilli's comment above --

I read someplace that the Pads have wised up to the notion that their team needs to be built around speed and defense, given the way PETCO and the other NLW ballparks play.

Say what you will about the guy's production, but Pie's skillset is a perfect fit for the direction the Pads want to take their roster.

If Hanson and Heyward are not included in Wren's offer and the Padres accept, Towers will have just gotten fleeced at his own game. LOL

100, I've made that same post about stupid cubs blanket statements hundreds of times... and then get ripped on for yelling at someone about making blanket statements. As frustrating as it is to hear, it just doesn't go away.

Now, as far as Marmol being the centerpiece for a Peavy deal, it doesn't make sense for the Cubs. Wood is already a free agent, so if for some reason we didnt get him, Marmol becomes the closer.

Let's even say we resign Wood. The advantage to getting Peavy over another top arm is his friendly contract. The only reason i'd even consider this as a Cubs fan is if it meant giving up Marmol to get Peavy AND being able to sign a big lefty bat. It does us no good to lose Marmol and prospects for Peavy on a friendly deal if we don't do more with it.

Although I like the thought process, way too much would have to happen first for that to be realistic, just doesn't work for us.

I don't understand why Sean Marshall is often discarded as close to worthless in trade talks, and a guy like McDonald is so highly regarded. There minor league stats are actually very close.

I understand Marshall has struggled a bit over the past few years in the MLB, but on the flipside he has also had some encouraging outings.

I'm not saying one is better than the other, but who knows what McDonald will do once he reaches the majors, or whether something will click with Marshall allowing him to be more consistent.

Point is that Marshall should get more credit than he gets on these chains.

McDonald
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/M/James-McDonald.shtml

Marshall
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Sean-Marshall.shtml

mmontice,

Statistics are not the only thing that is looked at when evaluating prospects. If they were I could make a good argument that the following two prospects have equal value:

Will Inman
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/I/Will-Inman.shtml
Tommy Hanson
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Thomas-Hanson.shtml

The scouting of the players combined with the statistics are how a prospect is evaluated, thus the difference in value.

Those stats tell me that Inman allowed 1.5 extra hits, walked 1 extra batter and struck out 1 less guy per 9 innings than Hanson.

He's on the wrong side of all the stats, I don't see how you can make a good argument that they're equal based on that.

I laugh when fans over value players they don't want like pie, dumb cub fans, yanks do it to. Why don't the cubs trade half there team for a goat cause the don't have a chance if they keep believing in the curse.

mmontice,

Why should Hanson be the next coming of Tim Lincecum?

"I laugh when fans over value players they don't want like pie, dumb cub fans, yanks do it to. Why don't the cubs trade half there team for a goat cause the don't have a chance if they keep believing in the curse."

I laugh when people who don't have any idea what they're talking about make blanket statements about prospects and entire fan bases. You're officially an idiot...

People who trash the Braves for not making Hanson available need to understand... the Braves have very little proven starting pitching on the roster. They've got Jurrjens, who is solid, but is only 22 years old; and Hudson, also solid, but just had TJ surgery, and will probably have no impact in 2009. Even after that, he's only under contract for one more year.

That's about it.

If we had 3 or 4 solid starters under control for 2-3 years, I think the Braves would consider trading Hanson.

But the fact is, even if we add Peavy, we NEED Hanson in 2010 for sure, and probably in 2009.

Sometimes prospects are seen as trading chips. I'd say Tyler Flowers, a catcher with a great bat, is in that category, because he's never gonna replace Brian McCann. But Hanson is seen as a part of the Braves rotation, and as such is not expendable. (and if he flops, it's the Braves' error, not San Diego's or someone elses').

Frank Wren was interviewed on XTRA 1090 sports talk today and said that Hanson was NOT...and I suppose I should repeat NOT untouchable.

He seemed as if he would prefer not to trade him, but stated that (and I am paraphrasing) he would be willing to listen to any package offers.

Now that does not mean that he would agree to trade Hanson, but please, all you Braves fans, get off the "untouchable" rants.

This comes from YOUR GM, not a fan, not a talk show host, THE MAN. So we shall see what happens...

Maybe the Rangers? Short down the lines, definitely hitters park and a team with the prospects to get the Padres interest.

Boston has the need for a fifth starter, why not make him an ace? Peavy look a hell of a lot better than Buchholz going into 09. They have the prospects. It makes sense. Of course, the White Sox could have pulled it off if they pulled out all the stops.

Well.... Towers just keeps trying to unload/trade Peavy to teams where he really doesn't want to go. If Towers makes him mad.... I can see Peavy saying one team ( astros since he wants to pitch with oswalt) or no one else.... Since he does hold the cards... I'm just saying.... It could happen if Towers keeps pushing.

And I read on the Atlanta Braves home page that the sports writer said Peavy said he doesn't think the Braves will contend with him... And do remember he wants to be on a contender.

It shall be interesting.... And Pie and Cedeno for Peavy? LOL that would be the worst trade for the Padres.... Especially for Peavy... Since the Braves/Angels and Astros could out do those 2....

Nixa, I've actually never once made a post like that about Braves being so hesitant about trading Hanson, so I don't see where I "constantly mention how Peavy is signed below market value."

No one can be convinced he will develop into ANYTHING, because he has never pitched in the majors, and that is all that matters. I can give you a list of 50 pitchers projected to do well in the majors that never broke into a rotation... it happens constantly. The fact is prospects are prospects because they arent proven... it's risk/reward, and Peavy is a big reward at a low price.

Anyway, moving on... Gogo, he wont pitch in Boston, that's already been established, so it doesn't even matter.

Elcaballo, It's safe to assume the Pie, Cedeno and Hill mention were simply the tip of the iceberg for any type of deal. It's not as if Towers called Hendry and Hendry offered that package. We don't know details, laughing at incomplete rumors is pretty pointless.

bdlugz,

You described him as being signed below market value twice in four sentences...that's all I meant.

Also, I'm not trying to convince you or anyone else of what Hanson will become. What random fans on a internet rumor site think about prospects is irrelevant. My point was that the Braves put a ton of confidence in their scouting, and if they are convinced Hanson will develop into at least a #2, its questionable which of the two would hold more value for them.

You also act as if there is no risk that comes with Peavy, which simply isn't the case. He experienced some elbow problems this season and posted his worst numbers since his rookie year in K/9, BB/9, and HR/9. He also doesn't come with anything close to a low price. Below market sure, but a minimum of 60+ million over 4 years is still a pretty large contract to take on.

Off all the teams still in the Peavy race, the Angels may have the best shot to get him...

Pitchers:
Weaver
Adenhart
Walden
Green

C:
Conger
B. Johnson

1B:
Morales

2B,SS,3B:
Wood
Aybar
S. Rodriguez
Brown

OF:
Willits
Bourjos
Evans
Pettit
Pavkovich

Any possible package of these players might entice the Pads...

Here's my offer:

PADS GET:
Weaver
Aybar
S. Rodriguez
Morales
Bourjos

ANGELS GET:
Peavy
L. Rodriguez
Kyle Blanks