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Rays Have Little To Spend

ESPN's Keith Law has some Rays info in today's blog.  He says the Rays want to address holes at right field and DH, but are willing to use a platoon in one of those spots.  They don't have much money to spend.

Cork Gaines at Rays Index projected the '09 payroll, arriving at $54.5MM.  A few million could be saved if the arb-eligible Edwin Jackson is traded for a cheaper player.  What kind of payroll increase are the Rays comfortable with?  They were at $43.7MM on opening day.  My Pat Burrell prediction may be unreasonable.


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Francouer for Edwin Jackson.

I guess the question is whether the Rays would be willing to offer a better package via trade if the other team ate some salary?

If this were the case, I see Randy Winn as a nice fit in Tampa. That would also provide them with the best defensive OF in baseball hands down. The $9 million dollar price tag is steep, but if it were in exchange for one of their top 7 prospects I could see it happening.

Another possibility is the Tigers with Magglio, but they would have to eat a ton of that salary, and I don't know if they have the payroll flexibility to do that. Dombrowski has said he wanted to cut $ so it may be unlikely.

Jermaine Dye.

Give me Hunter Pence and Billy Butler.

Cheap, young, very high ceiling.... pretty much defines the players the Rays go for.

Pat Burrell's looking for a salary around $11 million a year for 3 years...Try and do a trade for Matt Holliday the Rays have the prospects it would take to get him.

RaysFan - what do you think the Rays should give up for Pence? I've actually been peddling a trade prosposal around the internets that would send Peavy to the Astros, Pence to the Rays, and prospects from both to the Padres. But what is a fair package for Pence?

Dye or Swisher for EJax and FPerez ... but for both the Sox would have to eat some money!

Sox would get speed and a pitcher (whom they need if they trade VAzquez) and the Rays would get their everyday RF!

Other possibilites:
- Giles (and a B-/C+ prospect) for EJax (but the Padres won't eat any money)
- Butler for EJax + ?
- L. Scott for EJax (I know ... same division)
- Mc Louth for EJax and Brignac

Pat Burrells looking for a 3 year contracts around $11 million a year...Try and do a trade for Matt Holliday the Rays have prospects to get him and he would put em over the top.

I am still shocked at the pitching depth that have in the minors/majors. When you have Jackson/Davis/McGee(currently down with injury)/Niemann without a spot in the rotation you are in very good shape. Even with their holes i still can see them doing well next year.

I actually dont see them making a major move this offseason, they could instead trade their young arms for either young position players, or better yet younger arms, and keep the system going. Say trade Jackson for 1-2 arms with good/high upside that are in Rookie and low A, that way they can keep the system stocked.

Either that or Pence is a nice target, but he is going to cost more than a simple one for one, they are going to want Jackson and something else for him.

mymrbig

I was thinking something like

Astros Get: Jake Peavy
Rays Get: Hunter Pence
Padres Get: Wade Davis, Reid Brignac, something from Astros

No way the Rays trade Wade and Reid for Pence!

I could honestly see the trade looking more like Niemann and Reid Brignac, for Pence. Since Niemann is out of options anyways and they dont have place for him in the rotation.

Little money to spend and no top ten draft picks to shoot through the majors

uh oh

haha noooo way. Davis and Brignac for Pence? I think not. Definately not Davis. It would start with Jackson or Sonnanstine, likely because the Rays want to trade one of them, and the Stros need starting pitching. I could see Jackson and Brignac.

RaysFan - interesting, that is more than I was thinking of the Rays giving up. Don't know if the Rays would actually give up that much, but I have to believe the Padres would jump all over an offer that included Davis and Brignac.

I was tossing around the idea of one elite prospect (Davis, Brignac, or Hellickson) and one good player/prospect (Sonnanstine, Niemann, or Barnese).

I could see Hellickson and Niemann being part of the deal. I think the Rays hold onto Davis.

Heres the issue with the 3 teamer.

Davis and Brignac is too much for Pence but Padres are not gonna trade Peavy and only get Niemann and Brignac back.

The Astros farm is depleted so I don't know how they can make it work. Maybe the Padres trade a good spect of their own and then we can give Davis, Brignac and Niemann

"Give me Hunter Pence and Billy Butler.

Cheap, young, very high ceiling.... pretty much defines the players the Rays go for."

I agree. Though Im not sure the rays would be willing to give up all the prospects and players it would take to get both. Butler would be my first preference. Both would be amazing, but Im not counting on it. I agree though, I dont think they will go after any high priced free agents or trade for anyone with a large contract.

Davis and Hellickson are pretty darn close to untouchable. Both will be top 20 prospects. Guys like jackson, Sonny, Niemann, Talbot, Hammell will be considered waaaaay before Davis and hellboy come into conversation. I guarentee neither of those will be traded.

"I could honestly see the trade looking more like Niemann and Reid Brignac, for Pence. Since Niemann is out of options anyways and they dont have place for him in the rotation."

Niemann is actually a front runner for the bullpen next year, either as a long reliever or middle reliever. Last year in pen he was touching 98 and looked great.

Again, Jackson is who they are trying to move.

I agree Delmonmvp, and i am not sure where the Padres would come into play in these talks. Since the player we would target from the Rays would be Brignac. And some good arms, and not sure that the Astros have the arms to get a deal done.

Alright, if its only Jackson, then it wouldnt work for the Padres. They want players with little to no service time. He doesnt fit the bill.

Would the Astros do a straight up trade with the Rays?

That makes a deal a lot easier to figure out.

Jackson and Brignac for Pence? That sound close or am I off again?

is Juan Rivera too costly?

Jackson still has 3 years left till free agency, thats not bad. But I know what you are saying. Someone like Niemann or Talbot would be better for the Pads.

delmonmvp - I don't think Niemann would work in the bullpen, I've heard he takes way too long to warm up.

I don't think the Astros would move Pence for prospects. They might not even do it for Peavy, but they are too much of a "win now" team.

nahh Rivera wont be too costly, but I could see him getting 2-3 years 3-5 mil annually. Maybe 3 years 12 mil.

Yes, that is true about Niemann. He still has a great arm and he can be a SP for some team. Maybe the Royals would take him for Butler and then we can trade Jackson and something for Pence.

Ehh Niemann has had mixed results. yeah I know about the warming up issue, thats why I suggested him for the long relievers spot. Then again, if he isnt going to be starting, his value might not be any higher than it is now. When he did pitch out of the pen this year, he looked good and threw much harder than he did earlier in the year.

Yeah Im not exactly suggesting the Stros move Pence for prospects, but major league ready players in a different animal all together. With jackson, they get a mid-back of the rotation starter, probably #3 on the Stros (assuming they resign Wolf) and a major league ready shortstop. Maybe then they can flip Tejada for more pitching.

I agree. I want to be selfish and keep Niemann, especially since I have followed his whole career (and ran into him at a 711 when he was buying condoms and gum), but its probably in our best interest to trade him. His value is very high and what he might get in return for him (Butler? Pence?) could be more valuable to us than him in a long relief role or starting in Durham.

What delmonmvp said.

Jackson and Brignac for Pence makes a lot of sense for both teams and Jackson has been improving every year, he will never be the ace that he was once projected to be, but the ERA can continue to drop and be under 4 next season.

Meanwhile the Rays just have Jackson as a MR for next year and this turns Gabe Gross/Fernando Perez RF platoon into Hunter Pence who I have a man crush on.

Delmonmvp, he can not start for you in Durham, he is out of options, which is why i thought he would be trade bait to begin with.

And if anything the Astros would not trade Pence unless they were getting an impact arm in return, would be my opinion. Makes no sense otherwise. Though good, Jackson is not an impact arm.

Just throwing this out there, here is my open-ended prediction:

- Trade for one outfielder/DH involving Jackson/Niemann/Brignac

- Trade for one closer (Street, Gregg, Putz) involving Jackson/Niemann/Brignac

- Sign one loogy (Beilmel, Ohman, Shouse)

- Resign Baldelli on an incentive based contract

Thats my prediction. I would absolutely love if they got a DH AND right fielder, but I dont think they will. I think which ever spot they dont fill, they will use a platoon, with Aybar getting the majority of the at bats of the platoon. I still think the priorities are ONE DH/RF and ONE set up/closer. Any thing after that, whether it be another DH/RF or loogy is gravy.

Delmonmvp, I would like to know your opinion on something.

Considering they are all young, cheaply signed and our extremley deep farm system, you think we have any chance at getting Pence, Butler AND Street? Those are my top 3 targets, getting 2 of those would still be incredibly awesome.

And your other suggestions, I agree 100% and it should be cheap to sign Rocco to incentives and find some loogy

I used to have a man crush on Pence and Corey Hart until they burned me in fantasy baseball this past year. Ugh. Pence reminds me of Baldelli a lot. I think Baldelli was the better athelete, but everything from the low walks, high K's, decent BA, good power, speed, athletic ability.

Airman, you caught me. I dont know why Niemanns options slipped my mind for a second. Not sure what I was thinking. IMO, I think a guy like Jackson would be more appealing to the Stros because of the win now mentality. Niemann may be better, but hasnt proven a thing in the majors, whereas Jackson was a solid starter, above average to average, in the toughest division in baseball, including a 3.97 ERA before the break. Plus he still has loads of untapped potential. I agree though, that Niemann would definately make much more sense for the Padres. Speaking of man crushes, I have always had one on Heath Bell. I have lobbying for the rays to trade for him for years now, before the Mets traded him in fact.

"you think we have any chance at getting Pence, Butler AND Street?"

Yes, and I'll tell you why. First off, the A's are an interesting team to deal with. Rather than asking for 1-2 of our top prospects, they have made it known that they would rather have 3-4 B level prospects. Its actually a great way to trade, and worked well in the Haren deal. So concievably, we might only have to give up a few guys like Royster, Barnese, and Ruggiano. As for Pence and Butler, the centerpiece in both deals would either be Jackson or Niemann. I could see Jackson to the Stros, and Niemann to Royals.

I'll break it down like this:

Huston Street for Ruggiano, Cobb, and Barnese

Butler for Niemann

Pence for Jackson and Brignac

All three of those are feasible, but thats a lot of prospects to give up, even if they are expendable. I could see 2 of these three happening. With the third need being filled by a F.A.T (Freely Available Talent), such as a Hinske, Pena, Wigginton type signing.

Heath Bell, we i dont know if the Padres would really trade him given the Hoffman situation and Adams being out for most if not all of next year. That leaves us kinda thin on the back end of the bullpen. But it would make more sense for the Rays to get more than Pence if they were involved in a three team trade with the Padres and Astros.

Still the hold up would be a top pitching prospect, which is what is the hold up on all of the Peavy deals, and their unwillingness to take back players with service time.

F.A.T

dude, delmonmvp, are you a member of DRaysBay? If you are, I go by joeybw.

Also if we get those 3 while keeping Davis AND Hellickson, we are even more awesome than I thought.

haha yeah. sn is bossmanjunior333. We have gone back and forth a few times on draysbay. Im so bored I decided to try out writing on here haha.

I like the Niemann for Butler suggestions. Royals are down on Butler and have done everything possible to block him. Niemann is also blocked and the Royals could use another good rotation arm.

Niemann might also interest the Astros since he played college ball at Rice in Houston. I think Houston probably overvalues Pence by a lot since he is an engergetic player and came up through their farm system. I think Pence for Brignac and Niemann would make some sense (if possible).

But Ed Wade and Drayton McLane (owner) don't seem like the kind of guys to trade a more established player like Pence for prospects, even if they should.

Lets put it this way - the Astros ownership and leadership are daft, not deft. The Rays ownership and leadership are deft, not daft.

Ok so here is my bold prediction...

- Trade Street for 3 B to C+ level prospects

- Trade Jackson for Butler

- Sign Juan Rivera for 2 years 7 million

- Sign Joe Beimel (former Ray) for 3 years 9 million

That adds roughly 11.5 million dollars towards next years payroll, minus 2 million for Jackson, bringing the payroll to roughly 61 million dollars, which is right around the expected payroll. Done.

"The Rays ownership and leadership are deft, not daft."

Andrew Friedman, Execuative of the Year Woo! Woo!

"Davis and Hellickson are pretty darn close to untouchable. Both will be top 20 prospects. Guys like jackson, Sonny, Niemann, Talbot, Hammell will be considered waaaaay before Davis and hellboy come into conversation. I guarentee neither of those will be traded."

Hammel has minimal trade value.

For top players, it might be necessary to give up one of Davis or Hellboy (I love the comic book, so I dig the nickname), but they by no means should give up both. Obviously, Jackson, Talbot, Niemann, Sonny (although don't trade both Jackson and Sonny) will be closer to the chopping block.

Niemann's value isn't that high right now. He's 25, and hasn't cracked the ML club. Not too high.

"With the third need being filled by a F.A.T (Freely Available Talent), such as a Hinske, Pena, Wigginton type signing. "

I thought fat was a word to describe such players like Big Papi, Carlos Zambrano, Joe Blanton, CC Sabathia, and Prince Fielder. :-)

I'm just throwing a name out there, but why not try platooning Hinske with Emil Brown at RF? Emil is a FA, and I don't think he gets more than what he got this year (1.5MM).

Geren misused him by playing him way too much against righties. He is a platoon player, and should stick to hitting against lefties only. Just bring in another RH bat for DH/wherever.

Could Crawford play RF against LH pitching, so Emil could play LF (Emil in RF could be disasterous).

"it might be necessary to give up one of Davis or Hellboy"

We dont NEED anyone bad enough to give them up. And we have too many expendable pieces (Jackson, Sonny, Niemann, Brignac, Zobrist, etc) and the best farm system in baseball, we dont have to give up our best prospects. Our third or fifth or whatever best prospect would be a number 2 in most organizations.

"We dont NEED anyone bad enough to give them up. And we have too many expendable pieces (Jackson, Sonny, Niemann, Brignac, Zobrist, etc) and the best farm system in baseball, we dont have to give up our best prospects. Our third or fifth or whatever best prospect would be a number 2 in most organizations."

You're right, to an extent.

If the Rays played in an easier division, I'd agree. That division will be a three team horserace, with the Yankees and Sox bound to make some serious improvements and big splashes. You don't make the playoffs by standing pat.

So, I would say that the Rays NEED to bolster their offense and NEED to reinforce that pen from any nasty regression that might happen. With that pitching, a masher would give them a HUGE step forward. Friedman can build a bullpen. We both know that.

And, the big knock working against the Rays are payroll limitations, which could bar them from signing most of the power FAs out there. They could trade for Magglio, but it would cost both money and prospects.

I agree that Davis and Hellboy shouldn't be traded for rentals, but if its absolutely necessary to give that team the boost it needs, so be it. The Rays' depth is an advantage, but the only truly elite prospects in the system are Price (untouchable), Davis, Hellboy, Brignac, and Beckham (not going anywhere). EJax or Sonny will be a trade chip as well, preferrably EJax.

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