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Playoff Odds Update

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 12, 2009 at 6:32pm CST]

It's been a while since we last checked in on the playoff odds. Lots of teams say they expect to contend, but let's take a look at which teams have fallen out of the pennant race. These clubs have less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus.

Reds - 4.5%
Astros - 4.4%
Blue Jays - 2.8%
Pirates - 0.9%
Royals - 0.8%
Indians - 0.5%
Diamondbacks - 0.3%
Athletics - 0.3%
Orioles - 0.0%
Padres - 0.0%
Nationals - 0.0%

None of these teams are close and eight of them have less than a 1% chance. It would take a surprisingly good second half for one of these clubs to make the playoffs, but that doesn't mean the Reds and Astros are sellers, since they're close enough to contention that firesales would be tough to justify to the fans.

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Comments

How can a team be 0%? Even though that is probably the case, as long as there are more games left than how far behind they are, then they can still make the playoffs..

Posted by: RJA87 | July 12, 2009 at 07:24 PM

Well, those are rounded figures.
To be more precise,

Orioles - .02560 %
Padres - .01073 %
Nationals - .00055 %

Posted by: Jaybird | July 12, 2009 at 07:30 PM

how does cincy have a better shot than houston? houston is 1.5 games ahead of them. also, cincy's only 4.5 back of st. louis, and houston is 3 out. they're only 2.5 out if the cubs beat the cards tonight. neither of them are out of it, although i don't think they really have much of a shot.

Posted by: stephen | July 12, 2009 at 07:49 PM

Does this take into account strength of schedule at all while calculating these? I know it sounds weird to say it for baseball, but if you compare the Cubs and Cardinals schedules after the all-star break, the Cardinal's schedule is ten times easier.

Posted by: ibleedcubbieblue | July 12, 2009 at 08:00 PM

The Reds have lost 4 of their last 5. Houston has won 3 of their last 4. These Baseball Prospectus calculations could be from a couple days ago, when the Reds were leading the Strohs.

Posted by: Know ID yuh | July 12, 2009 at 08:46 PM

They also take into account strength of schedule as well as measures of a teams ability via runs scored and runs allowed. The standings are up to date, but Houston has been "lucky" according to Baseball Prospectus and played over their heads a bit. The Cubs have a 15% chance and are behind the Astros as well.

On a separate note - what is KC doing trying to trade this year? On the Red Sox broadcast today, Eckersley was really giving it to them.

Posted by: J | July 12, 2009 at 08:53 PM

thanks for the explanations

Posted by: stephen | July 12, 2009 at 10:29 PM

Isn't this pretty obvious? I don't really understand the purpose of this post.

It shouldn't be any surprise that these teams have little chance to reach the playoffs. They're all pretty much in rebuilding efforts at varying levels of success.

Posted by: basemonkey | July 12, 2009 at 10:47 PM

I think The Reds percentage is a little lower than it should be. Of course i really dont think they will make the playoffs, but...

5 Games behind isnt bad, i understand that there are 4 teams ahead. Reds have 9 against cubs, at least 6 vs cardnials, and another 9 vs Houston.

5% seems too small IMO

Posted by: GmblngPtchr20 | July 13, 2009 at 09:05 AM

"The standings are up to date, but Houston has been "lucky" according to Baseball Prospectus and played over their heads a bit."

The reason for their huge run differential is games like the other night where they completely fall apart. There are at least 3 games in the past week and a half that have been losses by 9 or more runs. That alone takes up almost all of the run differential for them.

Posted by: H-Town-Baller | July 13, 2009 at 11:05 AM

Funny how the Cubs are tied with the Stros in 3rd place but their chances are sooooo much better than Houston. This is a BS post, odds on baseball teams, please!!

Posted by: mitch4ya | July 13, 2009 at 11:49 AM

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