Aroldis Chapman In New York

$40-$60 million?? Who on Earth do they think this kid is, Nolan Ryan's illegitimate son?

I will concede that the kid has a butt load of talent. The kid throws smoke and he'll rack up the K's, but he'll also rack up the BB's as well. Any team that's willing to shell out 40-60 mill for raw talent with poor control really needs to get a reality check.

I love how when people here at MLBTR plan their team's offseason's moves, many of the posters here have their teams throwing big money at Chapman and slotting him in at the 3 spot in their respective rotations. The guy is obviously electric, but from everything I've read, the only way he would be in MLB next year is coming out of someone's bullpen, considering how unpolished his secondary stuff is at this point in his career.

Then again, I've read far more ludicrous things here lately.

Um I am pretty sure the Sox can afford $60 million mistakes...See Lugo,Renteria, Clement, Smoltz, Penny, Dice K, Piniero and it goes on.

This kid maybe the real deal but how any one wants to (not afford) pay this kid that much without seeing him against MLB hitters is beyond ridiculous. However everyone wants the big next thing so they will.

but i get the point your trying to make. signing old or guys that dont have it anymore in hopes in getting them back to what they once were but still 5mill for smoltz is a chance im sure many teams would take if he wasnt comming off surgery

i also doesnt get how people are saying he wil get 60mill when strasburg only got 15? i understand that it would have been higher if he was a free agent but not anywhere close that size

60mill is just too ridiculous. he might finish being a closer. Boston focus on something else and don't lose your time and/or money on this kid

White sox should be in the mix....

Well the agent is going to produce a number that is about 1/3 higher than his bare minimum. So I think he takes 3/4 years at 24MM to 32MM or 8MM a year on average. The Cuban's coming over have been much better bets than the Japanese that have tried their hand in America. Yuniesky Betancourt, Kendry Morales, Alexei Ramirez, Yunel Escobar. Yadel Marti notched over 12 scoreless innings in the 2006 World Baseball Classic and is a free agent, along with .300 hitting centerfielder Yasser Gomez are free agents that escaped Cuba also and have adopted a country to play ML baseball. Marti will get $5 MM and Gomez at least $1 for three years each.

He isn't worth that now as he still has to learn some. I would give him a 5 year 35 million deal in a heartbeat but 40-60 seems to be a little bit much especially knowing that he hasn't pitched in the majors yet.

Watching him pitch reminds me somewhat of CC Sabathia. He could very well be "CC like" in a few years.

@Outsking
Chii-Sox like, high priced, unproven talent with a Cuban flare. Perfect! See giving up the farm for Peavy (high priced), coming off injury AND from the NL and then picking up Rios. Also see all the Cuban born players Chi has signed. We all know Kenny Williams loves Cuban born players and spending money with no return, this would be ideal! Pony up 70Mil just to get it done!

Way over priced. I hope he has to "settle" for a comparable deal to Strasburg.

This is the part of MLB that's broke, all players should have to be in some sort of draft system.

Signing Chapman would be a disaster.

That being said, I hope he signs with the Yankees.

@scribbletone

After this year, Oakland loses the Chavez contract then suddenly has a large amount of money to play with, in addition to having strong, high-ceiling prospects at every single position. Chapman at $40M for 4 years makes sense. He's mlb-ready and there IS an open spot in the A's rotation, especially if Outman never comes back to form.

@scribbletone

After this year, Oakland loses the Chavez contract then suddenly has a large amount of money to play with, in addition to having strong, high-ceiling prospects at every single position. Chapman at $40M for 4 years makes sense. He's mlb-ready and there IS an open spot in the A's rotation, especially if Outman never comes back to form.

Posted by: PL | October 21, 2009 at 02:31 PM"

40/4? That does not sound like something the A's would do. I cannot believe this kid is ready.. Hell Stratsburg is not even ready and he is a better pitching prospect right now.

If the A's signed Chapman and he was stellar it'd be a waste of talent. They don't have the necessary pieces to win around him. Kinda like Greinke on the Royals.

"After this year, Oakland loses the Chavez contract then suddenly has a large amount of money to play with, in addition to having strong, high-ceiling prospects at every single position. Chapman at $40M for 4 years makes sense. He's mlb-ready and there IS an open spot in the A's rotation, especially if Outman never comes back to form."

First off, Chapman IS NOT MLB-ready, he essentially has one pitch, his fastball, and even his command of that pitch isn't particularly good.

Second, with Anderson, Braden, Cahill, Mazzaro, Gonzalez, Simmons, Mortensen, Eveland, and possibly Outman, it's not like the A's have a big need for MLB-ready young pitching.

The fact of the matter is that given the state of their organization and their payroll structure, spending $40M+ on a pitching prospect just isn't a smart risk to make, especially given that they have numerous high-upside pitchers already in their farm system, and that's excluding the guys that are already contributing in Oakland.

Yanks will stay away from this guy. If Andy Pettite comes back there is no reason for the yanks to go sign another pitcher.

Posted by: Adam Dunagan | October 21, 2009 at 01:57 PM

Again, the guy is not ready to be slotted into any team's rotation. Not even on a team like the Pirates whose rotation is far from overly impressive. Every scouting report I've read on the guy says the only major league ready pitch he has is his fastball.

He's mlb-ready and there IS an open spot in the A's rotation, especially if Outman never comes back to form.

Posted by: PL | October 21, 2009 at 02:31 PM

Why do I even try?

If the A's signed Chapman and he was stellar it'd be a waste of talent. They don't have the necessary pieces to win around him. Kinda like Greinke on the Royals.

Posted by: BomberMan26 | October 21, 2009 at 02:58 PM

You're crazy if you think the Athletics won't be competing for years to come. They've got plenty of talent they've acquired these past few years. They should be very exciting to watch these next few years.

I notice that the Giants realize that with Bumgarner being in the majors now, Alderson and Barnes traded away, that their minor league pitching is becoming more thin. Which is why they are in on Kikuchi and Chapman. I fully expect they will be a finalist for one or both.

I just hope the money is already set aside from the money to spend on a big hitter.

I agree with what you're getting at scribble but its a bit different. If strasburg were to negotiate on an open market rather than exclusively with the nationals, I'd expect he'd be a lot closer to $60m than chapman. Anyway, I hope for the good of baseball, he doesnt sign for more than 20mm.

Posted by: ECT | October 21, 2009 at 03:11 PM"

I just can't see a Kid who has never thrown a pitch in the MLB getting paid that much money, DiceK is different.. Him just being in a Red Sox uniform draws money and media and warm fuzzy thoughts.

If the A's signed Chapman and he was stellar it'd be a waste of talent. They don't have the necessary pieces to win around him. Kinda like Greinke on the Royals.

Posted by: BomberMan26 | October 21, 2009 at 02:58 PM

So by your logic any team thats not the Yankees shouldn't even bother trying?

"I agree with what you're getting at scribble but its a bit different. If strasburg were to negotiate on an open market rather than exclusively with the nationals, I'd expect he'd be a lot closer to $60m than chapman. Anyway, I hope for the good of baseball, he doesnt sign for more than 20mm."

Strasburg signing for less than $20M isn't good for baseball, it's good for Major League Baseball and the owners. I'm still trying to figure out why fans insist that amateur players get less than market value.

The problem isn't that amateurs are making too much, because the returns on those investments is exceptional, the problem is ineptitude in front offices and owners trying to finagle ways into pocketing their profits.

The only way that it's different is that the MLB designed a draft that systematically suppresses the bonuses of amateur players. The owners wanted amateurs to make less money than the market actually deemed that they were worth, so they created the draft.

The problem is that it shouldn't be different for Strasburg and Chapman, not only does the system screw the players, but it specifically screws American players.

Yeah, but the upside is absolutely tantalizing, he only needs to be a great pitcher for two seasons to match the value of a $40M contract, and he'd be under team control for at least six MLB seasons.

The return of value on amateur investments is significantly higher than the return on free agent signings, and spending big money to accumulate young talent generally yields more value in the end than spending big money on a few established players.

The fact of the matter is that MLB needs to expand the revenue sharing system significantly, eliminate free agent compensation, eliminate the draft, and establish an amateur player budget system.

With an amateur player budget system, the league would calculate how much money each team gets to spend on amateur players each year, based on their performance at the ML level in the past X amount of years. The teams with the worst performance get the highest budgets, and therefore the opportunity to pursue the best amateur players, while the best teams have far less money to play around with. This gives players the freedom to negotiate with any team that they want, and it gives MLB and the owners the secure feeling of knowing that amateur signing bonuses can't really get out of hand.

The current system used to distribute amateur players into the majors and minors is completely broken.

"Chapman will not be ready to start the season in MLB. I t would take him at least 1 year in the minors. How many more seasons will Pettite play, 1-2?"

You have absolutely no idea how long it will take for Chapman to be ready to pitch every five days in a ML rotation without getting shellacked.

The guy has one legitimate pitch, a 96-100 fastball, and below-average command of that pitch as well. He needs to work on his offspeed stuff and his command, and it wouldn't surprised me if that took two years, at least.

I don't see Chapman as a good signing for the Yankees. The guy might have good stuff, but he there are too many unknowns to sink that much money into him. The Yankees don't really have a pressing need for starting pitching.

The Yankees currently have Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Chamberlain, Gaudin and Hughes. Pettitte might retire within the next couple years.

Before the 2011 season they could sign Roy Halliday or Josh Beckett, or Cliff Lee. That's a really strong year for top notch Free Agent pitchers with strong resumes. Plus it might not be a bad thing to reunite Burnett with Halliday.