Trade Market: Shortstops

"He was very valuable in 2007-08, and the 27-year-old is easily the prize among all available shortstops (considering both trade targets and free agents)."

The next available guy you name is Stephen Drew...are you really saying Hardy is "easily" better than Drew?

Well I think it's obvious- release that POS SS Derek Jeter and pick up that future HOF Cristian Guzman.

Surprised to read that Izturis has accrued enough service time to be a free agent after next year.

It's hard to see Brignac with much of a role on the Rays next year or in any year for that matter. Guessing they won't bring Iwamura back and shift Zobrist to 2B. That would open up an OF slot for Desmond Jennings. Alternatively, they could leave Zobrist in the OF and use Sean Rodriguez at 2B. Love to see S-Rod get a chance after hitting .299/.400/.616 in Triple-A this season.

I'm not trying to be a "dumb" Red Sox fan, but I have a question about Hardy.

Melvin has mentioned that the Brewers will be looking to add two starting pitchers this offseason. Would Michael Bowden for Hardy straight up be a good deal for both sides?

how can we leave out the big Kahuna- H Ramirez to the Red Sox.

I think there is a real possibility of this. Thnk of the package of players the Marlins could get for Uggla, Ramirez, Cantu, and Hermedia. Lock up the pitchers now with the money saved, and in a couple of years be in a position to contend.

I would think that one of Kendrick, Izturis or Wood would be available if the Angels resign Figgins. That's 3 guys fighting over 2B and utility infielder.

Normally I would assume that Kendrick is a lock at 2B but the Angels sat Kendrick quite a bit in the post season to let Izturis start.

@ johns:

Hardy had a down year offensively, but still had a better year than Gonzalez. Although a little surprising, Gonzalez was barely better than Hardy defensively. Gonzalez posted a 6.9 UZR in 09 while Hardy posted a 6.6.

Hardy could have a bounce back season in Fenway with the Green Monster. If the cost is Bowden, Theo should make the deal. Have him and Lowrie platoon based off of pitching matchups.

Shortstop would be about average compared to last year, when it was a black hole. Stick with the platoon until Iglesias is ready.

WOW, a SS trade thread and no mention of Yunel Escobar. Glad we've finally moved past that one

I'm not sure how come JJ Hardy isn't anywhere near the performer of Alex Gonzalez defensively. UZR would beg to differ. Actually, in the last 3 years they have been almost identical in the field. Now, where there aren't anywhere close is offensively, where Hardy has an absolutely massive advantage over Gonzalez.

Even if you want to judge solely by 2009 (and completely ignore Hardy's two consecutive 4 WAR seasons), as bad as Hardy was, he was still better then Gonzalez, despite a .260 BABIP. Hardy is a very good player, it is just complete folly to say Gonzalez is more preferable. He isn't, anyway you cut it, especially if Hardy is a buy low possiblity.

"It isn't a good idea to judge how good a defensive player is by one season. Gonzalez has been better than that over his career, and I agree with Johns, if the Sox can get Gonzalez for 3 mil on a one year deal, it is better to go after him than give up a prospect like Bowden.
"

Who cares what he has done over his career? He is now a 33 year old shortstop with a laundry list of injuries in his past. Soxcurse nailed it. The last 3 seasons, Hardy and Gonzalez have been almost exactly the same defensively. Where they aren't even close to the same is offensively. Somebody please tell me, with all of the quality arms that Boston has both in their rotation and in their system, are they really going to let Michael Bowden stop them from getting JJ Hardy? I wouldn't. I would make that deal in a second from a RS point of view.

Tulowitzki is a great young player but I'm not totally sold on him yet. For one, he is 6'4 and I wonder if he will be able to stay on as a shortstop for his whole career. Two, is that he went from a good, solid year in 2007, to a very bad year in 2008, to an absurd year in 2009 (though this was largely a product of an enormous spike in his HR/FB rate, which went from 13 in 07, down to 6.7 in 08, up to 18.5 in 2009. I'm not sure he can sustain that.) He also jumped up from a .138 iso to a .250(!!) iso since last year. I'm not saying I don't think he is very good, I just don't know if he is the 2009 version of Tulo or more like the 2007 version. His terrible season last year can't be completely thrown out either.

Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to dog the guy, he was outstanding this year, I just want too see a bit more from him.

With a .300 wOBA and a negative UZR, I have an idea the feeling is mutual.

lol, nrmax, who cares if Tulo is a SS 10 years from now. He can easily move to 3rd with his rifle.

He's the real deal as much as any player is at 25.

A lot of players struggle in their 2nd year, thats why they name it the "sophomore slump".

His defense is GG calibre and his hitting is Silver Slugger calibre too. He is the real deal. I'm just surprised no Red Sox fans on this board think they deserve him like they do for every good player.

I really do not want to see the Red Sox trade for a shortstop. I think they should sign shortstop through free agency for a 1-2 year deal. Re-signing Alex Gonzalez would be good too.

"lol, nrmax, who cares if Tulo is a SS 10 years from now. He can easily move to 3rd with his rifle."

Yes, well, you should care, because while moving off SS to go to 3B isn't anything horrible, you lose value moving off of shortstop.

"A lot of players struggle in their 2nd year, thats why they name it the "sophomore slump"."

Maybe so, that doesn't mean that it didn't happen though.

"His defense is GG calibre and his hitting is Silver Slugger calibre too."

Forgive me if I don't care at all about 2 pointless awards voted on by writers who don't even understand the game.

If you are trying to say that he is the best SS in the league, or among them, he isn't. He ranked 14 in UZR/150 this year. He is basically an average SS on the defensive side.

Again, I like Tulo, but I see that while you argued almost all my points, you had nothing to say about the huge spike in HR/FB. 6.8 to 18.5!!!!! That is enormous. If he can sustain the numbers he put up this year, then sure, he will be a top 3 shortstop. Either way, he is still really good. I just don't think that he is the player we saw in 2009. More like the 07 version. Again, either way still really good but just don't expect another .390 wOBA next year.

Slowey for Hardy would be great...for the Brewers. I dont think the Twins would go for that. Although I would sure like that trade. I think Hardy for Liriano would be a little more reasonable. Hardy for Brandon Morrow would also be great. Morrow has some sick stuff if he can stay healthy. I think the Brewers would have to throw in a little bit extra to get Morrow though.

I really don't see the Marlins being that stupid to trade away HanRam he is an elite guy and the pride and joy of the Marlins organization. Then again, they are about to long-term Josh Johnson so they might need to dump a little salary. But who knows? The Marlins have got to be the most mind-boggling organization in baseball!! Look at some of the guys who have gone through their organization that they have just dumped!!!

bjsguess - we had gonzalez for a full season, and got rid of him because of his bat, we know very well his skills with the bat.

Why i said what I did is I have a bit of faith that if healthy Lowrie can hit like he did in the minors, or to the tune of a .270 - .280 average.

You are putting way too much value on Hardy, both Gonzalez and Lowrie are better fielders which the Red Sox need at SS if Lowell is at 3B, and Hardy was terrible with the bat this year, his OBP doesn't fit the Red Sox mold at all. Harddy doesn't fit the mold of an accomplished ML Shortstop. Accomplished ML players do not get sent back to the minors. If this was last year you would be right but he isn't anywhere near the player he was last year or has anything near the same value. 5-6 years of Bowden for 2 years of whatever you get from Hardy - the Brewers would jump all over that.

Sage:

2009 UZR
Hardy - 6.1
Gonzalez - 8.3
Lowrie (all be it limited time) 23.1 - but also in limited time in 2008 he was at 24. So all indications are he is a good.

------

I am not doubting that at the moment Hardy is a better option - what I said was I back Lowrie, him and Gonzaelz are better fielders, but what I meant was the difference between what we have and Hardy isn't worth Bowden.

If you want to package Hardy in with Fielder then yes you can have Bowden, and plenty more.

You are also not going to get any pitching out of Baltimore. They will need every arm they can get.

If I were Balitmore I would rather have the pitching. Yes a SS and 3B for years to come would be great but you need so much pitching in the AL and especially AL EAST.

They have a good everyday core in Wieters, Roberts and one of the best outfields in the game that is only going to get better and better. They could pick up a SS and 3B from the Free agent market a lot easier than you could get a decent pitcher.

It all comes down to value - i just don't think Hardy is that valuable to the Red Sox to warrant Bowden.

Sox pitching has some holes to fill, Beckett, Lester, Buchholz are locked in. Then hopefully Wakefield 4 and then really its either a FA signing or Matsuzaka at 5. Bowden is currently 6/7 in depth chart. Red Sox will need at least 7 good starters next year.

Also remember seeing you guys are not likely to keep Hardy on your roster, needing to trade him and free up that money for Fielder - that reduces his price.

If The Tigers ate like $7M - $8M of his salary does anyone think a Bonderman for Hardy trade is reasonable?

So here I go again with my predictions:

Of course JJ Hardy is going to be traded and the team I think he gets traded to is Toronto. If you look at Dave Bush who came over and has pitched decent for the Brewers then obviously the Brewers would love to send Jj over and get a good starter. Who they get will be the more interesting question. I'm thinking they might go after either Ricky Romero or Brett Cecil.

Stephen Drew is staying in Arizona.

Cristian Guzman will hit the road and go to the Giants to help form a better double play combination. I don't think Renteria is helping. The Nationals will look for a young pitching prospect in this trade possibly Madison Bumgarner (not sure if I spelled that right).

Izturis will most likely stay with the Angels.

Brandon Wood will be swapped for a 3B maybe a trade with the Twins and receive Brendan Harris (though personally I don't see a trade like that happening).

Reid is Tampa's future at SS.

Alvies I see getting trade to Boston. I believe he is young and can cover the infield if needed. Gonzales is not getting any younger and that is what exactly the Bo Sox need. The Royals will look towards acquiring Michael Bowden if they do try to trade (though I would rather see the Yanks make a move on him because he is from the Bronx and he is really good).

Thoughts?

Whalersfan, you really have no idea what you are talking about if you think Christian Guzman and his $8M salary for '10 in the last year of his contract gets you Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Why would the giants trade him for another overpriced, old shortstop with no range, one of which they already have in renteria? If bumgarner progresses as the giants hope he does, they have the potential to have a 3 ace rotation. They should give that up for the luxury of having $17.5M locked up in the SS position in two guys who, combined, wouldn't even form a decent platoon? C'mon...

"They could pick up a SS and 3B from the Free agent market a lot easier than you could get a decent pitcher."

Posted by: quintjs | October 30, 2009 at 09:37 PM

Don't tell me you actually believe that. There isn't a single free agent shortstop this offseason who is younger than 30, and all of the available ones are not exactly very good, with the possible exceptions of Jerry Hairston Jr, Miguel Tejada, and Jack Wilson. The third base market is just terrible, with Adrian Beltre being the best option at 31 years old and coming off an injury.

However, I see your point about pitching. And, it just occured to me, the Orioles do have Josh Bell, a big 3B prospect waiting in the wings, do they not? If that's the case, then I see how a short free agent third baseman deal would serve as a stop gap to Bell, and be better than trading away a pitcher or two.

You don't think that Hardy is valuable enough to warrant Bowden? Hardy is, as I have already said, a great player with great defense, he has a cannon for an arm, and it's accurate, too. He can hit around .270 with 20-some homers and 70-80 RBIs in a season when he's right. You would get two years of that, and possibly more, as, if it goes well there, Hardy would probably want to re-sign with the Red Sox. How can you turn that down for only Michael Bowden, who hasn't proven to you yet that he can pitch in MLB, or at least in the American League?

If you still think Bowden is too much for Hardy, then tell me something. What do you think the Red Sox would be willing to give up for Hardy?

I would trade any combination of Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Armando Galarrage, Alfredo Figaro, and/ or Dontrelle Willis for JJ Hardy. Or any other SS on that list, but I'd go hard after Hardy. The Tigers need ABE at SS next season (anyone but Everett).

I would trade any combination of Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Armando Galarrage, Alfredo Figaro, and/ or Dontrelle Willis for JJ Hardy. Or any other SS on that list, but I'd go hard after Hardy. The Tigers need ABE at SS next season (anyone but Everett).

Posted by: Tigerdog | October 31, 2009 at 12:15 PM

I'm sure you would. I would also trade any combination of Brandon Moss, Jason Jaramillo, Steve Pearce, and Kevin Hart for Zack Greinke but would it happen? NO!