Eight Teams Express Interest In Billy Wagner

They can't. The window is 15 days after the WS, I believe, that teams can offer arbitration. During that time, only that team can negotiate a deal with him.

I think Cubs223425 is right, unless his contract states otherwise...He is a Type A FA...so I believe the way it works is if the Sox offer him arbitration, and another team signs him, the Sox would get compensaion in a supplemental 1st rd pick, and whoever signs him would loose their fist round pick...someone with more knowledge about this please correct any of this...Im not 100% sure if thats right either...also, do the Red Sox still get compensation if they do NOT offer him arbitration ? Maybe a stupid question, but I need a refresher on the rules...Thanks

Deanezag-

Every year teams sign Type A free agents that aren't gonna put them over the top, Wagner will be no different. Teams trade boatloads of talent for half year rentals, stuff happens. The Red Sox traded a first round pick (David Murphy) and more for a half season of Gagne. It didn't work out, but at the time no one thought it was that crazy, I don't think it's good value to sign Wagner either, but it's gonna happen.

1. Assuming he gets arbitration

2. Assuming he declines ( he said he may think about a return to BOS now).

3. The Yanks gave theirs up for one player, but needed 3 to get to WS-contention, so you are wrong.

If they gave up the pick for a veteran with closer experience that could be a 'leader to a 'pen with young arms and got a decent trade or FA, that #1 pick seems like a nice trade-off.

Acquiring that closer may not take you from playoffs to WS, but not having a closer can take you from WS to playoffs REALLY FAST.

I cant see him signing for anything more then a 1 year 3mm plus incentaves deal. Cubbies gotta be the best bet, but I wouldnt count out the Nats they have some money burning a hole in their pocket and they really want to spend it on whatever they can

Thanks for the Help tmengd and bjsguess. A few more things Im not sure I have right is...The Sox would NOT recieve compensaion if they do NOT offer arb. Right ? And if thats the case, Does the signing team just forfit their pick ? And, not sure about the Supplemental picks after the 1st round ? Is that what a team recieves as compensation if a team that has a top 15 pick signs a Type A FA ? Once again, thanks for any imput !

"I think Cubs223425 is right, unless his contract states otherwise.."

No he isnt.

Arbitration has to be offered prior to December 1st, with the player needing to accept or decline by December 7th.

Meanwhile, other teams can make offers to free-agents 15 days after the conclusion of the WS. (this year the date is November 20th)

So, any Type-A/B signed between November 20th and November 30th is basically a free DP. Teams would still be able to offer arbitration and know for a fact that the player couldnt resign.

I believe Jeremy Affeldt is the only player to fall under this auto arbitration-decision last season. He was signed on November 17th by the Giants and offered arbitration by the Reds sometime between the 18th and December 1st for them to receive the Type-B compensation.

"They can't. The window is 15 days after the WS, I believe, that teams can offer arbitration. During that time, only that team can negotiate a deal with him."

Okay, I guess that makes sense. For some reason I thought the deadline for offering arb was sometime in Dec. Maybe I confused that with the deadline for accepting arb? When do we usually find out who was offered arb and who wasn't?

If the Sox are willing to bring Wagner back in a non-closing role, and if most of his value, and incentive for trading for him, lies in his ability to bring a high draft pick back to Boston, why in the world would the Sox not offer arb?

Seems like a win win situation, either you get the pick or you get a solid arm at the back of the pen. Obviously no team wants to shell out 10 mil for any reliever, but Boston is one of few who could afford it.

Thaks for the Correction SuzysMan...I think I remember reading about the Affeldt situation last year, that makes sense. Ill do some research on the rules and quit waasting everyones time.

Back to topic...the phillies do make sense, but they have alot going on this O.S. too...Im tinking the Astros may get in the mix...especially if Valverde gets away. If healthy, i think he has a season or 2 left. It would be good to see him get a chance to close.

one more note though. If Tejada were to be signed by another team before Dec 1st the Astros would get that extra pick whereas the team that signs them would lose nothing. So you can bet the Astros are praying someone signs him before Dec 1

Correction on tmengd ...

The Supplemental picks are for both A's and B's.

If you offer arb, the player declines, and then signs with a team, his original team will receive a 1st round supplemental pick + either the new teams 1st or 2nd round pick (depending on whether the pick was protected or not).

For example, using the Angels last year, they received the 1st round pick from the Yankees (for Teixeira), 1st round pick from the Mets (for K-Rod), and 1st round supplemental picks for Tex, A-Rod, and Garland (who was a Type B).

"The chances of Boston NOT offering Wagner arbitration are slim and none. Remember, Epstein has offered arbitration in in the past to non performers who were Type A Free agents Tony Graffanino, Paul Byrd and Jason Varitek. Wagner is far and away better than any of those."

Graffanino was only a B, as was Byrd. Since there is no draft forfeiture for a B, they are a lot easier to sign, hence lower risk. Plus, they were both market priced, so even if they accepted, the RS would've been stuck with two okay players at okay prices. Plus Byrd had already agreed to decline arb.

IRT Tek, the RS got really lucky. Boras said Tek was looking for a Posada package, which was ludicrous. Arb would've almost guaranteed Tek $10M for one year, and he wound up with $8M/2. It was a bad move by the RS, but an even worse move by Boras/Tek. There was virtually a -0- chance anyone else was going to give the RS their #1 for Tek.

IRT Wagner, I'm confident the RS will offer the arb, otherwise, I don't see why they traded for him. I think he'll certainly get an offer of about $16M/2, with a vesting option for a 3rd year. He'd likely get about $8M in arb, so he should do better on the outside. And as you said, the risk for the RS is low. $8M is too much for a lefty setup guy, but even if he got it, we probably still got a $5M setup guy, and it would give as flexibility if we wanted to move Paps, or if Paps gets injured.