Mets Rumors: Delgado, Francoeur, Non-Tenders

Wonder how many fake rosters / mock lineups where gunna see proposed in this thread....

As a Braves fan, I hope all of the Mets fans out there enjoy the hell out of it if Minaya gives that POS Francoeur an extension. You'll soon see just how terrible of a player he really his once his BABIP regresses back to the mean, which it will. He is truly a horrid baseball player.

I don't see why people are so critical when comes down to Frenchy. Sure he doesn't have the best plate discipline, but he showed a lot of bright spots for the Mets in his time with team. To my knowledge, he had the most HR's on the team, has a cannon arm, the grit factor is there, and he's young. Baseball nerds need to take it easy with the irrelevant stats. Some things players provide, aren't always in the numbers.

I would hope that Omar takes "a hard look" at anyone who's available. Mets have a lot of holes to fill.

Jeff Francoeur is a platoon player at best. No extension, please.

"do you believe Francoeur's 308 plate appearances with the club represent a reformed hitter?"

Really?

The only thing that changed was luck:

2009 ATL: 3.8% BB%, 15.1% K%, .281 BABIP

2009 NYM: 3.7% BB, 15.9% K%, .343 BABIP

His walk-to-strikeout ratio GOT WORSE. His BABIP skyrocketed in New York, partially thanks to hitting the ball harder, his line drive rate is much better with the Mets.

Not to mention that he's posted UZR/150's of -4.9 and -5.9 in the past two years, which covers 306 games, a pretty decent sample size to indicate that maybe Francoeur isn't even the defensive player that he once was.

Sorry, but I can't believe that they're tendering him a contract at possibly more than $3.375M, given that he may be able to get a raise through arbitration.

What bright spots does he provide? He's an average fielder AT BEST (below average the past 2 seasons), even with his good arm.

Grit factor? Really? This is a guy who refuses to even acknowledge OBP as a relevant stat. I don't want him on the team, I think he has a horrible attitude and quite frankly he's a terrible baseball player.

"I think he has a horrible attitude and quite frankly he's a terrible baseball player."

As a Braves fan, I know he has a horrible attitude and work ethic. When we demoted him to the minors in '08 he said that it "hurt his relationship with the Braves" and that he was "angry". When he was doing poorly with the Braves this season, he blamed it on the guys hitting behind him offering him no protection.

The guy has all the raw talent in the world and if he'd get past his huge ego he'd make a very good ball player. Its a damn shame that he's shown an inability to do that to this point in his career.

To Atobe, Where do you get the idea francouer has a bad attitude? He goes all out and is a good clubhouse guy. him and wright became pretty good friends, and he isn't a bad 6-8 hitter if they get bay or holliday or someone like that. Yeah he strikes out a ton but he has power and drives in runs. I just don't see how people see players are bad because they have a bad "BAPIP". Does that win you games or does runs??

I don't see why people are so critical when comes down to Frenchy. Sure he doesn't have the best plate discipline, but he showed a lot of bright spots for the Mets in his time with team. To my knowledge, he had the most HR's on the team, has a cannon arm, the grit factor is there, and he's young. Baseball nerds need to take it easy with the irrelevant stats. Some things players provide, aren't always in the numbers.

Posted by: ABisNYC | November 13, 2009 at 03:02 PM

Let me correct you. He doesn't just not have the best plate discipline, he has NO plate discipline. I don't hate the guy and for my part I was rooting hard for him to stop sucking and be that RH power bat we all thought he would be and really needed.

At first he raw power and talent showed but as soon as pitchers found out that he will swing at anything, he stopped getting good pitches to hit. That continues today.

@Atobe

When our guys were dropping like flies and we traded Church for Frenchy, was he not a big part of our offense?

Go look it up, his numbers were better than Ryan Church.

I'm not saying he's the greatest player in the world, but what more do you want at this point? With all of these holes to fill on this team, you're more concerned with Jeff Francoeur?

"To my knowledge, he had the most HR's on the team, has a cannon arm, the grit factor is there, and he's young."

Well, if he has "grit", then I'd say that's worth a five-year deal.

Go look at Frenchie's 2005 season and compare it with his 2009 season with the Mets. Eerily similar.

Needless to say, he won't be so popular after next year.

There are a good couple of non tenders out their this year.
Ryan Garko may be the platoon player with Murphy that the Mets are lookin for. He hit lefties to a .308/.391/.479 line.

"Francoeur will be back and also mentioned that an extension is a possibility"

NOOOOOOOOOOOO

I really hope the plan isn't to give Frenchy 500-600 PAs in RF. Because if it is, you might as well blow up the team and trade away all the valuable pieces right now. I think it would be almost impossible to contend with that out machine holding down a corner OF slot and batting near the middle of the order.

As a half-year stopgap while Fernando Martinez or Ike Davis is ready, okay, sure, I'll live with Frenchy. Give him an extension and I'm out. Seriously, I'll go find another team to root for.

1.Reyes
2.Murphy/ RH BAT (Garko?)
3.Holliday
4.Beltran
5.Wright
6.Francoeur
7.Molina
8.Hudson

Where do I sign? I love it.

lol I love how people are saying how hes gonna do terrible next year when those same people said the braves got the better deal in the church frenchy trade. Obviously hes not an all star but ill take him over church any day especially when he's younger and has more potential

I think the Mets should try to trade for both Vasquez and Edwin Jackson.. and i feel they should sign molina and hudson and holliday.. trade away the farm.. this team had to win now..

"FRENCHY IS A GOOOD PLAYER REGARDLESS OF THE STATS!!!!!!"

HA HA HA HA.....no really, you cant be serious? Jeff Francouer is a good athlete, not a good baseball player compared to his level of competition. Good throwing arm and does have power, but thats it. Bad obp, bad plate discipline, terrible route running, no speed anymore. At league minimum to about $2 mil, he's a useful player. Would be a very good platoon player while looking at his splits. Definitely not someone you want to pay a lot of money to and have him trotting in RF everyday

Francoeur probably won't improve significantly from his time in Atlanta; however, he will be 26 at the start of next season, which makes him fairly young for how much major league experience he has and leaves the possibility of improvement. He wouldn't be the first player to flounder on one team and flourish with another. Plus the Mets have bigger areas of concern. With just one season with a negative WAR, the Mets won't be destroying their team by making Francoeur the everyday right fielder.

What we know about Jeff Francoeur:

1. He is going to be among the league's worst in BB%.

2. He is going to put the ball in play at a rate right around average, aka he'll strike out around 15% of the time. Not bad, not great.

Here's what we don't know, and the difference between the awful Francoeur from Atlanta and the decent but upspectacular player from his most recent half season in NY:

1. How much power will he hit for?

2. What will his rate of hits on balls in play be?

His career BABIP trends look fairly typical. He's consistently been within about a standard deviation of his career average. So in this regard, we can project he'll likely be in a similar range, anyhwere from .270-.340, which may seem like a large range, but the point is projecting on either end is a question more of random variance than change in talent.

So that leaves us with power. Where has Francoeur's power been? Its been dangerously low in each of the last two seasons. He just doesn't have the additional skills to support an ISO below .160 or a HR/FB below 9%, and those marks were .161 and 6.5% in 2009, and even worse in 2008.

If we look at the partial seasons, the signs are encouraging. His ISO did jump to .187 and his HR/FB to 9.6% after the trade. In 300 PAs, the sample size is small, particularly for that ISO mark. However, HR/FB actually does stabilize to a correlation greater than 0.70 at 300 PAs, so the number is significant enough to talk about.

First, what's that, a right handed hitter having a substantial boost in HR production as a result of coming to CitiField? I was lead to believe such a thing was impossible.

Seriously though, if this is the result of a legitimate adjustment Frenchy's made, great. There's a good enough chance his ISO and/or his BABIP will be high enough so that he's even ::gasp:: a useful player at his salary. He won't be great, and there's a chance he'll be terrible, but I don't see the $4 or $5 million he'd make as less than his projected value, even if the possible outcomes are erratic and mediocre at best. And his expected value is almost certainly higher than his trade value right now. So for the time being, I say just keep him where he is. Pay him his due in arbitration, and take it from there. There's absolutely not reason to talk about giving him any more money or years. Lets give him another 500 PAs before we jump to any firm conclusions here.

I know one thing for sure..After watching Church play here for a year plus, and watching Frenchy play for half a season..give me Frenchy.

Mets fans arent expecting him to be our number 4 or 5 hitter with crazy power numbers..but the 6 or 7 hitter with numbers that are very reasonable.

He must of really burned his bridges in Atl. The Francoeur we seen in NY was a breathe of fresh air to this team. He played hard and didnt miss 3rd base

At league minimum to about $2 mil, he's a useful player

Some people are just soo stupid it makes you wanna kill somebody. League minimum??? Do you even know how much that is??? Now listen dumb ass Braves Fans, Hes not Oedipus, to have killed his father and married his mom. Hes a 25 year old "kid" in a sense that he has not yet found out what a Ball/Walk is. other than that. This guy is a solid bat that on some bad teams(The braves for the last 5 years) He could bat 4th or 5th. Mets dotn suck that much, Hed be a 7th hitter. He is a 20 HR, 100 RBI, 40 Double, .270 AVG, Javelin Throwing RightFielder.... (which i think, has 30 HR Potential) that is worth at least 6M-9M. Look at the contracts of some similiar batter, even older with that type of money

Wow, I did not realize that there were so many stupid Mets fans, that though Francoeur is a solid bat.

While Francoeur is young, he is also a dim bulb and seems to have either a learning disability or is simply incompetent.

No worries, by all means extend arbitration to this boob. In fact, if Frenchy has a hot April, maybe Minaya can give him and extension.

Then about the all-star break, let's see where Frenchy is. The objective Braves fans would really enjoy having a former Brave set the Mets back a few years with a bad contract.

But I am sure we are wrong, as it is not like we saw this chump for 4+ years.

“His career BABIP trends look fairly typical. He's consistently been within about a standard deviation of his career average. So in this regard, we can project he'll likely be in a similar range, anyhwere from .270-.340, which may seem like a large range, but the point is projecting on either end is a question more of random variance than change in talent.”

Francouer is a statistical dream. He is nearly the exact same player every year sans BAbip. Break down Francouer and baseline the BAbip to see what I mean.

(we will use his career average of .304 BAbip)
2005 - .276/.314/.525/.839
2006 - .275/.308/.464/.771
2007 - .266/.313/.417/.731
2008 - .262/.316/.382/.698
2009 - .278/.307/.422/.729

(because .304 BAbip is his average, those produce his real career .271/.311/.432 line)

You can see that the BA and OBP are always within 20 points of eachother. Meanwhile, the slugging stop varying over the last 3 seasons – a 40 point difference in SLG is nothing.

Basically, you can project what his BAbip will be next season and know within .020/.020/.040 what his line will be.

Now, since 304 is his average BAbip, that is the most likely 2010 outcome. And a .304 BAbip is roughly a .270/.310/.410 line. That is what people should expect (within .020/.020/.040) in 2010. Expecting anything more is anticipating him playing outside the career average he has provided. A Career average that he matched just short of perfectly in 2009 I might add.

Jeff Francouer is so consistent with this, that it really becomes a pretty safe bet that he will hit a combined .270/.310/.410 over the next 3 to 4 seasons. Afterall, check this out using his real stats

4 years:
2005-2007 - .268/.312/.434/.746
2006-2009 - .268/.309/.420/.729

3 years:
2005-2007 - .280/.319/.463/.782
2006-2008 - .264/.309/.419/.727
2007-2009 - .271/.314/.409/.724

The only real deviation is SLG when 2005 is included because of the huge SLG he showed that one year. Otherwise, he is that .270/.310/.410 hitter constantly.

Jeff Francouer. The .270/.310/.410 man

I got a bad feeling about Holliday. I like the guy I just don't think he's worth the 20 mil/yr. Better off spreading that money out on 3-4 good players. I say go for Bay, Hudson, Lackey, Piniero, Molina. I actually think that in order for the Mets to be true contenders they're gonna have to get at least 4/5 of those guys.

Just got news the Mets want to shop Castillo badly. I knew this was coming after I saw him drop that flyball in the subway series, its almost like I could read the Mets organization's mind that that was the very end for him, no matter how good he did the rest of the season. Now its either CHone Figgins or Orlando Hudson coming to 2nd base.

About Delgado, I wouldn't mind at all if they brought him back on an incentive based short term contract.

Francour was a great addition to the team, I think the Mets will sign him long term.

SuzysMan,
Interesting case. I don't essentially disagree, but I think you're underselling Frenchy on one point:

"Meanwhile, the slugging stop varying over the last 3 seasons – a 40 point difference in SLG is nothing."

I'm not sure this is a fair assumption. The reason we typically use the three most recent years of data when establishing a baseline talent level is that, prior to the last three years, we might have data that is no longer relevant. For many players in their mid-20s, data from three years prior will weigh down regressed means more than they should, since the player has not remained at a constant level of talent, he has improved. In Francoeur's case, being that he's 26, and the data prior to the last three years reflects a higher talent level, it is important to consider it. At the time the trade was made, perhaps this wouldn't have been so necessary, since the earlier part of Francoeur's career still fits the BABIP model you describe pretty well, his BB% hasn't changed, and the other element of production free of BABIP, power (specifically ISO and HR/FB) was trending consistently negative. But since the trade, we have reason to question this trend, which is what I was trying to establish above. We know Francoeur has hit for more power in the past. And we now have a tolerable sample size suggesting he's bucked the trend of diminishing power, and perhaps even made an adjustment to turn it around.

Take a look at the Bill James projections. They match your model in BABIP, AVG, and OBP almost perfectly, at .307 (which is also his fangraphs listed career mark), .276, and .318 respectively. However, where they disagree is on SLG on ISO. James projects a .437 SLG and .161 ISO, which is greater than one standard deviation higher than your projection by your model, which makes it a significant difference. A .140 ISO is about replacement level for a corner outfielder who doesn't walk. In the James projection, that's about Frenchy's floor. In yours, thats his expectation. If you're right, he should absolutely be non-tendered. He won't be worth $5 mil if he hits .270 / .310 / .410. But in the James model, if he hits .276 / .318 / .432, that will probably be very close to his actual value.

Also, its a little unfair to compare overlapping three year ranges. Of course 2006-2008 is going to look similar to 2007-2009, since 66% of the set is weighted to the exact same data. There's only so much difference 2006 and 2009 can make between the two sets.

well if that's gonna be the roster then you can expect a 75-80 win season and Minaya a gonner at the end of the year. There's no way the Mets go above .500 with that team setup. Although I think they should go after Wolf, I think the Dodgers will claim him first.

“and the other element of production free of BABIP, power (specifically ISO and HR/FB) was trending consistently negative. But since the trade, we have reason to question this trend, which is what I was trying to establish above.”

Yeah, his SLG was in a free-fall prior to the trade and it did increase. But let’s think about it with the big 3 questions

1 – was it a real indication that he changed? Did he develope more power at this time? No, obviously not. Maybe adrenalin from the trade? But that wouldn’t be sustainable. Maybe weight off his back from being out of Atlanta? That might be sustainable for a little while – maybe? Does that mean it is just a matter of “don’t do anything to upset him or he will lose his power again”?

2 – was it just a result of his normal or expected correcting itself? He ended with a .304 BAbip/.307 ROE included (his career average) with a 7.1% HR/FB (inline with 08) and 143 ISO (inline with career trend, where 08 seems an outlier). Or let me pose it like this. Had he not been traded, what would people be thinking? Normal unpredictable season-long fluctuation resulting in the expected in the end? Would people really question it at all if there wasn’t a trade?

3 – straight fluke? We are talking merely like 2 Dbl and 2 HR having a rather extreme difference here. (28 after-trade ISO points to be exact) The time poses a SSS, and every extra base hit has a fairly profound affect. The .060 BAbip swing along means a higher percentage of extra base hits are inevitable. So we know at least some of it wasn’t a real difference in him no matter what.

Honestly, with a .270/.310/.410 line you are getting a 140 ISO and he provided an overall ISO of 143 in 2009. 143 is consistent with the downward trends he showed previously if 2008 is considered an outlier. 140 range is probably in line with his production at this point. I don’t see him reverting to his highest ISO since 2006 solely because of a trade – I refuse to believe he lost all those ISO points because he was dragging his feet for 4 seasons for whatever reason (that would point to some pretty extreme psychological issues). And while I can see the possibility he posts a season of a .432 SLG (that isnt a very big fluctuation – within the 20 points above BA fluctuation I would leave open for) it seems more then unlikely this will be that season solely because of said trade. Even if he bucked a trend, it doesn’t mean he reversed it or nearly completely reverted back to what he was prior to the trend beginning. Honestly truly expecting a 155+ ISO is saying just that though, that he is magically better then his previously 3 seasons because he averaged out to his expectation after a trade in his most recent season.

The Mets need a catcher big jay, can you name a better one that's available on the market other than Molina?

Posted by: Mac | November 13, 2009 at 11:04 PM
mac,
exactly my point. why go out and waste money on a 37 y/o catcher? if the mets are that in need of a catcher, wait until the trade deadline next year and go for mauer, someone 10 yrs younger than molina.

Good conversation.

So, let’s see. First

“No its not, that's the LEAST nitpicky part of my argument”

No, I meant it as if you were picking at the least important part of what I said. Honestly, I only included that stuff at the very last minute and didn’t have the mid one or second 4year to begin with. But no matter, life goes on.

“Not sure this is a provable claim. He may have. 26 year old players make adjustments, and improve all the time.”

A change in approach is possible, but not change in ability overnight like we saw. (.345/.345/.517 in first week alone) And crediting something as a change in approach would dictate fluctuation to a norm doesn’t exist. So is it fluctuation to a norm or a change in approach? Well, since it happened instantly, not allowing time for an approach change to develop one would have to lean towards fluctuation or possibly adrenalin from the trade. We will get to this more in the next paragraph though.

“Flawed assumption. You cannot determine causation from correlation alone. It could just as easily be that the BABIP swing was a result of him hitting the ball harder rather than the other way around.”

To assume BAbip increased from a change other then correlation, then you would need account for that going forward. Bill James does not – he projects a .307 BAbip (career average and 2009 accumulative total) and expects the .270/.310 range that BAbip brings. He, by his projection, tells us that a change was not present in his opinion. You were the one to bring his opinion into the conversation as a base, and his base indicates there wasn’t a change in Francoeurs approach. If there were a change in approach then a BAbip much closer to the .360 shown in NY would have to be expected, which would lead to a BA pushing 300 and SLG in the high 400 range.

“And the extra HR have nothing to do with the BABIP set, since HR are not balls in play.”

A higher BAbip will lead to more Doubles and Triples which adjusts ISO just the same. I didn’t state that HR were the only thing that could have been/likely were out of whack.

“That's why its important here to incorporate the previous data. His career HR/FB is still about 10%. Given that, and the fact that he's still such a young player (i.e. not a player in his mid-late 30s, expected to experience natural decline) there's some reason to lean towards the explanation that something has, in fact, changed.”

He has yet to have a single season where his HR/FB didn’t fluctuate greatly month to month. 2007 saw a 7.7% in September but 12.9% in Aug and July after a 3.1% in June, 6.1% in May and 17.9% in April. Overall that is a 9.8%, but he didn’t get anywhere near that any single month. In 2009 he actually had 3 months which got fairly close to his overall average though – April, June and post-trade August (right in the middle of the supposed change period)

But why is that really? Mainly because we are talking the most minute of SS here - something around 30 FB and 3 HR being the normal he sees on the average month. During his time in NY he only saw 104 FB and 10 HR over nearly 3 Months. That is an average of 35 FB and just over 3 HR a month. 1 HR is going to have a profound effect – one month with 35 FB and only 2 HR is merely a 5.7% HR/FB. If he had just 2 lucky shot HRs out of those 10 then the overall 9.6% HR/FB becomes 7.7%, which is perfectly in line with his overall 7.1%. Well, according to HitTracker he had 4 lucky and 6 just enough HRs in 2009 – 67% of which came over the second half after the trade. The HR/FB difference between his great looking post-trade and his overall is a whopping 2 HR where he had a very high percentage of lucky-shot/just-enough HRs over that time. You really, honestly believe that indicates a real “change”?

I agree with whoever thinks the Mets should go for Phillips, Ive wanted him To become a Met for a long time, but do you really think it could happen? He's been talked about before as a possible trade but Minaya never showed any interest and he's still not showing any. So. Nice thought but Minaya as always is in a world of his own, a lousy GM with a fruity mind.