Official Elias Rankings

MLBTR has obtained the official Elias rankings for the upcoming offseason. The list below includes all ranked free agents, including those who have already signed, those who say they'll retire and those whose options will likely be picked up.

Once the regular season ended, the Elias Sports Bureau took all players over the 2009-10 period, divided them into five groups for each league, and ranked them based on various statistics.  Each player was labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

The numbers beside the players' names represent their rankings. If teams sign more than one Type A free agent, one team gets a top compensation pick and other teams lose out. The team losing the highest-ranked free agent obtains the best pick the signing team can offer and other teams fall in line behind the team that loses the top-ranked player.

Type A

Bronson Arroyo — 80.033 – club option
Grant Balfour — 72.923
Adrian Beltre — 81.633 – player option
Carl Crawford — 85.128
Jorge de la Rosa — 74.422
Scott Downs — 76.352
Adam Dunn — 74.167
Frank Francisco — 73.171
Jason Frasor — 73.383
Vladimir Guerrero — 80.000 – mutual option
Matt Guerrier — 79.569
Ramon Hernandez — 74.517
Derek Jeter — 91.304
Paul Konerko — 78.095
Jason Kubel — 80.000 – club option
Cliff Lee — 87.500
Derrek Lee — 74.167
Ted Lilly — 80.116
Victor Martinez — 87.054
Bengie Molina — 72.321
Magglio Ordonez — 77.436
Carl Pavano — 75.568
Andy Pettitte — 80.492
A.J. Pierzynski — 80.804
Manny Ramirez — 76.154
Arthur Rhodes — 72.229
Mariano Rivera — 88.830
Takashi Saito — 69.657
Rafael Soriano — 91.799
Miguel Tejada — 76.720
Matt Thornton — 86.214 – club option exercised
Billy Wagner — 83.313
Jayson Werth — 91.807
Dan Wheeler — 74.673 – club option

Type B

Rod Barajas — 59.459
Joaquin Benoit — 66.879
Lance Berkman — 64.762 – club option declined
John Buck — 67.411
Orlando Cabrera — 66.667
Randy Choate — 62.460
Kevin Correia — 57.591
Jesse Crain — 60.657
Johnny Damon — 74.359
Octavio Dotel — 66.473
Chad Durbin — 57.471
David Eckstein — 65.801
Mark Ellis — 74.405 – club option
Pedro Feliciano — 66.855
Brian Fuentes — 67.055
Jon Garland — 71.947 – mutual option
Alex Gonzalez — 61.376 – club option
Kevin Gregg — 66.967 – club option
Brad Hawpe — 70.769
Aaron Heilman — 58.420
Trevor Hoffman — 62.829 – club option
Orlando Hudson — 70.238
Aubrey Huff — 60.000
Omar Infante — 62.338 – club option
Brandon Inge — 67.347
Hiroki Kuroda — 68.152
Gerald Laird — 60.045
Adam LaRoche — 61.667 – mutual option
Felipe Lopez – 67.532 -  club option
Mike Lowell — 62.585
Hideki Matsui — 73.333
Kevin Millwood — 58.617
Miguel Olivo — 65.251 – mutual option
David Ortiz — 75.000 – club option
Vicente Padilla — 58.168
Carlos Pena — 64.762
Jhonny Peralta — 62.585 – club option
Scott Podsednik — 69.880 – club option
J.J. Putz — 62.213
Chad Qualls — 56.168
Aramis Ramirez — 63.187 – player option
Jon Rauch — 69.088
Jose Reyes — 62.434 – club option
Hisanori Takahashi — 58.650
Yorvit Torrealba — 63.900 – mutual option
Koji Uehara — 68.010
Juan Uribe — 65.608
Jason Varitek — 64.732
Javier Vazquez — 71.970
Kerry Wood — 62.778 – club option declined

Eddie Bajek reverse-engineered the Elias rankings for MLBTR and was right on every free agent except for Derrek Lee, Adam Dunn and Mark Ellis, who were all on the bubble at their respective positions.


Full Story | 65 Comments | Categories: Elias Rankings

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65 Comments on "Official Elias Rankings"


Guest
Upperdec
4 years 8 months ago

Adam Dunn is an A? Isn’t this also a difference?

Guest
$1529282
4 years 8 months ago

Dunn wasn’t a Type A under Eddie’s last projections either. He fell off at the end of the season. Makes the Nats’ decision to not trade him even worse.

Guest
Upperdec
4 years 8 months ago

He is listing as a Type A free agent on this list… This is different than the projection

Guest
$1529282
4 years 8 months ago

Haha, I suppose I could’ve actually read the post. I misunderstood Upperdec’s comment. My mistake. Oops.

Guest
4 years 8 months ago

LOLNats.

But seriously, his B rank makes him even more valuable to prospective teams, because they don’t have to give up their first rounder to get him. Rizzo will have to pay even more to keep him in Washington.

-C

Guest
gwells
4 years 8 months ago

except he’s actually an A, not a B. but thanks for playing.

Guest
airohpue13
4 years 8 months ago

Doesn’t it make their decision to not trade him better. Now they get a first rounder when he declines arb.

Guest
coachofall
4 years 8 months ago

everyone of those relief pitchers with the Type A designation better be saying their prayers that they aren’t offered arbitration; and if they are offered they should accept it as soon as possible. I don’t see a single name on the RP list, or on the SP list (other than Lee), who I would forfeit a draft pick for. There may be a lot of unemployed pitchers going late into the off-season this year

Guest
moonraker45
4 years 8 months ago

Nah, I don’t think so. You’re forgetting that if teams sign quality FA’s and then some relief help, they would be giving up a 2nd or 3rd rounder making the decision extremely easy.

I agree that a guy like Jason Frasor has no hope as a Type A

but Scott Downs would and should generate plenty of interest and get himself a nice contract.

Soriano is more difficult because he is ranked so high very few players are slotted in front of him, but maybe a team with a protected pick takes him

Guest
coachofall
4 years 8 months ago

If guys like Downs and Soriano are offered arbitration they will get higher salaries upon their acceptance than they will if they enter into free agency. TB will not offer Soriano Arbitration, no way they want to get stuck again wtih a high priced closer. Downs has no chance of getting an annual avg salary over what he would get wtih arbitration, and a less likely chance that a team will commit more to him than his arb number over multiple years and yield any sort of draft picks. This is one issue that needs to get addressed by the MLBPA in the next collective bargaining agreement, they are costing a lot of their members a large amount of freedom and money

Guest
moonraker45
4 years 8 months ago

are you insane?… sure he might not get more then 5 million a year, but he will EASILY get a 3/12 contract for one of the best non closing relievers in the league.

You can’t compare year by year. Scott downs would probably get a raise if he accepts arb to if he goes through free agency, but if he blows his arm out the second game he’ll have no contract to fall back on.

There is no chance that Scott Downs accepts arbitration, many teams are interested in him, and especially teams with protected picks wouldn’t mind losing a second rounder to solidify their bullpen.

Guest
coachofall
4 years 8 months ago

Insane? not really…but some have questioned. How many of these teams with protected picks are going to forfeit an early pick AND commit 3 years to a RP? Makes no sense for a team that isn’t close to competing (protected pick), to give that much up in a commitment. Injury could happen to any player that is always the risk with a one year arbitration deal, pitcher, catcher, SS or any position. My point was IF he is offered Arbitration that will limit his market and drop his annual price and i stand by this.

Guest
moonraker45
4 years 8 months ago

He will be offered arbitration, and he will not accept it. I am willing to bet any money on this.

Teams outside of the AL east have a chance to go from ‘protected picks’ to playoffs teams. . Not to mention teams like the phillies, tampa, nationals, texas, etc who may lose Type A free agents, would be more willing to sign a type A because they have another pick coming there way.

Also teams like the yankees, red sox, etc who go after werth, crawford, lee or any other fa would be giving up a second or third round pick for the best non closer in the game. I mean imagine Downs setting up for philly or the yanks?

Guest
WagsFromLB
4 years 8 months ago

So I take it Vicente Padilla is unranked?

Guest
4 years 7 months ago

Error of omission on our part, he’s on there now.

Guest
4 years 7 months ago

Error of omission on our part, he’s on there now.

Guest
4 years 8 months ago

They are several teams that could use those relievers that didn’t have winning records. Therefore they’ll only lose second/compensation selections)

Also Saito was released so he wasn’t offered Arbitration.

Guest
Encarnacion's Parrot
4 years 8 months ago

Maybe I’m just failing to understand this, but are you by chance suggesting that some relievers aren’t type A because of their W-L records? If so, please delete this comment.

EDIT: Apparently I’m a numpty and misread your comment. Thanks to those below for correcting me.

Guest
0bsessions
4 years 8 months ago

Read it again. Typo on the first word aside, he’s clearly referring to the fact that plenty of teams with protected first round picks might have use for one of those Type A relievers.

Guest
Encarnacion's Parrot
4 years 8 months ago

It was a crude way of saying it though, as Detriot finished 16th [tied] yet weren’t under .500. That’s how I was thrown off.

Guest
WagsFromLB
4 years 8 months ago

No he’s saying that there are a bunch of teams with losing records that would be interested in type A free agent relievers because they wouldn’t have to forfeit their first round pick

Guest
moonraker45
4 years 8 months ago

I think he’s saying the teams don’t have winning record there for have a top 15 pick which is protected regardless of who they sign.

Guest
4 years 8 months ago

I think the White Sox have an interesting option on AJ Pierzynski. The guy had an off year, but he makes only around 7 million, which is not a ton. I think it makes a lot of sense for the Sox to offer him arbitration, as he’s better than any potential replacement they have in house, so unless they think they can sign V-Mart, why not?

Guest
coachofall
4 years 8 months ago

if they offer arbitration he will get a raise. They are better off not offering and letting him walk. He will not get 7 mil in the open market

Guest
$1529282
4 years 8 months ago

They’ve got Tyler Flowers and $7.5MM or so for AJ coming off a season that bad is awful. AJ would accept it in a heartbeat, and they’d be stuck paying about $7MM more than they could be paying Flowers. They’re better off saying bye and letting AJ go his own way.