Dunn Seeks Four Years, $60MM

The agent for Adam Dunn is telling teams that he expects the bidding for the free agent to start at four years and $60MM, according to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. Dunn settled for a two-year, $20MM deal the last time he was a free agent, but two years and 76 homers later, Greg Genske is looking to triple his client's previous contract.

Dunn has been one of baseball’s most dangerous sluggers since breaking into the majors a decade ago. The 31-year-old, who has hit at least 38 homers in each of the past seven seasons, will likely decline the Nationals’ offer of arbitration later tonight. That will mean the team that signs him will have to surrender a top draft pick (assuming he leaves Washington).

Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports examined potential suitors for Dunn earlier today.


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125 Comments on "Dunn Seeks Four Years, $60MM"


4 years 9 months ago

He doesn’t want to DH but can’t play in the field. 4/60 = Pass

Brad426
4 years 9 months ago

Dunno, he still had a 3.6 WAR last year. If you listen to the $4M per win theory that is about what he deserves. I bet somebody gives it to him.

That’s based on his “best” defensive season in 6 years though. Granted, it was the first time he’d ever been at 1B full-time, but you really need more than a full year of UZR to get an accurate read, so who knows if he’s really that much better at 1B than the outfield or if it’s just a weird UZR blip.He might reconsider DHing when he sees the offers he gets.

EDIT: actually, can see you’re using BR’s WAR, which is based on total zone, I think. Same still stands, although the fact that the two stats agree might mean something.

Brad426
4 years 9 months ago

I agree you need more than a year to make a real determination. Bottom line the guy is a butcher on defense no matter where you put him, but he nets wins with his crazy offensive numbers.

Brad426
4 years 9 months ago

I agree you need more than a year to make a real determination. Bottom line the guy is a butcher on defense no matter where you put him, but he nets wins with his crazy offensive numbers.

airohpue13
4 years 9 months ago

I don’t buy into that theory. Ryan Raburn of the tigers had a 2.1 WAR last year so does that mean he deserves over 8 million a year? No.

Brad426
4 years 9 months ago

No, it says that was his value.

bjsguess
4 years 9 months ago

If you believe in Fangraphs and use WAR as your argument here is what Dunn’s value has translated to over the past 5 years:

2006 – 1.9 WAR / $6.9m
2007 – 3.1 WAR / $12.8m
2008 – 1.1 WAR / $5.0m
2009 – 1.2 WAR / $5.5m
2010 – 3.9 WAR / $15.7m

Let’s say that he had signed that same 4/$60m deal 4 years ago. He would have generated a total of 9.3 WAR for approximately $39m.

Dunn’s issue has always been his glove. His bat is strong but his glove is awful. The two years where his value has been highest is attributable to UZR. And in this case, UZR is probably wrong on the individual year basis. Taken as a whole, Dunn is a butcher with the glove. When you factor in -15 or so for defense he drops down to a 2 WAR player.

Couple other factors. Those were his prime years. Scouts have repeatedly expressed concerns based off his size and style. Typically sluggers like Dunn don’t age well. Throw in the fact that the acquiring team will also need to kick over a top pick and this is working out to be a terrible signing.

Brad426
4 years 9 months ago

You make good points. I will wager he still gets the 4/60 or real close to it, though.

Brad426
4 years 9 months ago

Dunno, he still had a 3.6 WAR last year. If you listen to the $4M per win theory that is about what he deserves. I bet somebody gives it to him.

4 years 9 months ago

dunn strikes out to much hes average at best in the field and cant hit his own weight and hes not a kid cubs made this mistake with soriano and got stuck may be worth some risk if the bulk of the money is incentive based

comish4lif
4 years 9 months ago

The mistake that the Cubs made was giving Soriano an 8 year deal – to a player turning 31. If they had given him a 4 year deal, it would not have been as bad. Still wouldn’t have been good…

4 years 9 months ago

I’d take Dunn at 4/60 long before I’d take Jeter at 4/60

And even if he’s only a DH, I’d say $15 million a year for someone who puts up the numbers Dunn does would be worth it… but I’d balk at 4 years… I’d go with 2 years/$15mil, and I’d be open to negotiating an option for a 3rd.

But if I was forced to pick between the 2 guys looking for the same contract… I’d go with Dunn in a heartbeat.

4 years 9 months ago

Not. Gonna. Happen.

4 years 9 months ago

Pfffffffft.

Fangaffes
4 years 9 months ago

For a guy who can’t field and won’t DH? Nah.

mrmoss
4 years 9 months ago

Dunn will end up being a Cub

4 years 9 months ago

Early Christmas present for Todd? 😀

4 years 9 months ago

Early Christmas present for Todd? 😀

4 years 9 months ago

Dear Orioles: GIVE IT TO HIM.

moonraker45
4 years 9 months ago

Thats my bet as well..

phizz127
4 years 9 months ago

Dunn stated that he wants to remain in the National League. But I don’t see him turning down 60mm over 4 years to stay there. He would make a good addition to the O’s line-up and put in that heavy hitting bat they need. I would probably work on keeping him at 1st and rotating Pie/Scott for LF, unless they sign some more outfield help after they are done with filling the infield situation.

4 years 9 months ago

What’s his nickname again?

nzmrmn
4 years 9 months ago

“Big Donkey”

4 years 9 months ago

What’s his nickname again?

4 years 9 months ago

A’s need to sign him. We deal with Cust in the OF, I think we can handle Dunn out there.

DMartAsFan
4 years 9 months ago

I was thinking the same thing. I wish we had a few more million to spend tho. It would be nice to get Beltre, Dunn, and Berkman. But one of Dunn or Berkman would have to DH. I don’t see us getting all 3 but if we did we could trade Barton for some bullpen help.

Red_Line_9
4 years 9 months ago

Watching Dunn and Custin the same outfield would be like watching an electric football game….players going all over the field until they jam into a wall.

With Dunn and Cust in the outfield I would tear up the grass and plant oats and sell tickets to watch them graze.

Red_Line_9
4 years 9 months ago

Last summer I watched Cust play the outfield at Comiskey. Reminded me of “Saving Private Ryan”…..he was running all over the outfield like he was dodging Nazi bullets on Omaha Beach.

4 years 9 months ago

A’s need to sign him. We deal with Cust in the OF, I think we can handle Dunn out there.

nzmrmn
4 years 9 months ago

Would be sweet if the Giants signed him and stuck him in left. Still short an SS, though.

Sixto_Lezcano
4 years 9 months ago

Dunn can play shortstop! Just give him a chance.

nzmrmn
4 years 9 months ago

Would be sweet if the Giants signed him and stuck him in left. Still short an SS, though.

Guest
4 years 9 months ago

3 years/40m…

Guest
4 years 9 months ago

3 years/40m…

4 years 9 months ago

Dear Someone Who Isn’t the White Sox – pay the man, please, please, keep him away from 1st at USCF!!!*snort* Seriously, 4 years, 60 million?

Red_Line_9
4 years 9 months ago

Yep…the Sox have options for a lefty power bat that won’t cost this much.

4 years 8 months ago

Oney Guillen is hinting strongly on twitter that the White Sox have acquired Dunn. I really, really hope this is a joke. :(

Red_Line_9
4 years 8 months ago

Well..we’ll see. Maybe Konerko has taken the Orioles offer.

Red_Line_9
4 years 9 months ago

Yep…the Sox have options for a lefty power bat that won’t cost this much.

coldgoldenfalstaff
4 years 9 months ago

Konerko, who’s 3.5 years older isn’t looking for much less, and arguably he’s just as bad defensively.

I’d prefer Pena over Dunn, since he’ll cost much less.

coldgoldenfalstaff
4 years 9 months ago

Konerko, who’s 3.5 years older isn’t looking for much less, and arguably he’s just as bad defensively.

I’d prefer Pena over Dunn, since he’ll cost much less.

4 years 9 months ago

Dear Someone Who Isn’t the White Sox – pay the man, please, please, keep him away from 1st at USCF!!!*snort* Seriously, 4 years, 60 million?

Natinals
4 years 9 months ago

When do winter meetings officially start?

Natinals
4 years 9 months ago

When do winter meetings officially start?

Ole_Nivek
4 years 9 months ago

VMart got four years 50mil to be a DH. Someone is gonna give Dunn the extra 10mil. He is a much better hitter than Victor

tiger313
4 years 9 months ago

you mean he hits more home runs and walks more, while vmart hits 300 and walks as much as he strikes out opposed to dunns 175 strike outs.

Infield Fly
4 years 9 months ago

Make that Dunn’s 199 strikeouts to V-Mart’s 52!Whew!!

Infield Fly
4 years 9 months ago

Make that Dunn’s 199 strikeouts to V-Mart’s 52!Whew!!

Brad426
4 years 9 months ago

Dunn had an OBP of .356 to V-Mart’s .351 last year. Career Dunn is .381 to V-Mart’s .369. Average matters not at all.

Career OPS: Dunn is .902 and V-Mart is .838.

BlueSkyLA
4 years 9 months ago

Average matters a lot. It still means what it has always meant. Dunn’s OBP is inflated because he’s a liability on the base paths, so he’s more likely than most to be passed with runners on. Walking Dunn with a runner on second is pretty much a no-brainer call for any manager.

4 years 9 months ago

…what?

Average does not matter a lot. SLG matters a bit. OBP matters more. wOBA renders them all irrelevant. Dunn is the better hitter without question, but probably will get less than V-Mart because he doesn’t even present the option of being an almost-tolerable catcher (or anything else). Finally, being a threat at the plate translates into walks/pitching around a lot more than being a liability on the bases does.

BlueSkyLA
4 years 9 months ago

Ah, the One Stat to Rule them All. I hadn’t reckoned with that.

BlueSkyLA
4 years 9 months ago

Ah, the One Stat to Rule them All. I hadn’t reckoned with that.

Brad426
4 years 9 months ago

With all due respect, I disagree. Average matters way less than OBP. And I also disagree that Dunn is a liability on the base paths. He is not a slow man for his size (and he’s a smart base runner, which is more important than speed), and he’s averaged 97 runs per 162 games in his career… that clearly is not a liability.

ugen64
4 years 9 months ago

runs matter even less than average because they’re so reliant on context, and they certainly aren’t a good way to measure speed. for instance Ichiro had only 74 runs last year, not through any fault of his own (and certainly not because he’s slow), but because the hitters behind him were terrible.

Dunn’s not slow for his size but he’s a big guy, so he’s certainly slow in general. I agree he’s a smart baserunner, and his speed scores with the Reds weren’t too bad, in the 3.5-4 range.

Brad426
4 years 9 months ago

I wasn’t saying he scores runs therefore he is fast, I was simply using runs scored as evidence that Dunn isn’t a liability on the base paths.

$5427573
4 years 9 months ago

That would depend on who’s coming up next for the teams batting order……

start_wearing_purple
4 years 9 months ago

Victor also will be able to catch for at least 2 years.

airohpue13
4 years 9 months ago

I’d still rather the tigers got Dunn and a defensive catcher, but I can’t complain. VMart was cheaper too.

tiger313
4 years 9 months ago

just imagine if we sign werth/crawford or trade for someone, thats a pretty nice 1-4 we have.

Ole_Nivek
4 years 9 months ago

if he catches, teams will run wild on him

start_wearing_purple
4 years 9 months ago

Victor also will be able to catch for at least 2 years.

Ole_Nivek
4 years 9 months ago

VMart got four years 50mil to be a DH. Someone is gonna give Dunn the extra 10mil. He is a much better hitter than Victor