Phillies lefty Cole Hamels has no deadline in contract extension talks, he told reporters today at a press conference. MLB.com's Todd Zolecki has a transcript.
Asked whether Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are good contract comparisons, Hamels didn't say much to reveal his asking price in years or salary. He also didn't give a "yes" or "no" when asked if he'd take less to stay in Philadelphia, replying, "The only way to answer that is I don’t know any better." When asked whether his agents are currently in negotations with the Phillies, Hamels said, "I know they're supposed to."
The Phillies will have every opportunity to extend Hamels, explained agent John Boggs in January, though not at Jered Weaver money. Team president David Montgomery expects it to come down to what each side considers an appropriate length. I imagine Hamels expects at least six guaranteed years, though that's a guess.
I don’t think this guy with be a FA
he said he hasn’t even thought about becoming a free agent. he’s re-signing, and soon.
You hope don’t you???
“I imagine Hamels expects at least six guaranteed years, though that’s a guess.” That’s probably a pretty good guess.
I’d guess that the chances of Cole resigning with the Phils is about 90% right now. An estimated $5 or $6B deal in the near future certainly helps with the finances.
I know this is probably the minority opinion around these parts, but I’m not as certain that Hamels will avoid free agency. He seemingly wants the Weaver deal as a starting point, wants 6 years, and hasn’t indicated (nor should he) that he would take a hometown discount. Yet the Phillies have never sent any signal that they would do 6 at Weaver’s AAV.
The Phillies have a boatload of money…tons of $$ coming off the books in Victorino, Polanco, Blanton, and Ruiz…two ace SP who are approaching their mid-late 30s and won’t be around for much longer…and a home grown player who hasn’t indicated that he wants to leave.
That seems to indicate to me that he’s staying.
Sounds to me like Hamels would like to stick with the familiar, as long as they don’t lowball him on the financial end. Maybe he’d give a discount, but not to the magnitude Weaver did. IMO weaver left millions on the table.
Hamels n Company may have said there is no deadline, but if a deal doesn’t get done before Opening Day, I find it hard to imagine the two sides hammering out a deal of this magnitude during the season. This, in my opinion, would mean Cole would definitely test free agency and get Cliff Lee type money from a team other than the Phillies…the ‘no deadline’ likely means there is no ‘official’ deadline on the calendar, but the end of spring training I think really signifies a deadline of sorts for the Phils and Hamels
Adrian Gonzalez’s deal was announced 2 weeks into the season in order to avoid the luxury cap hit. Chances are that if the deal is struck, it WILL be announced after the season starts.
Very true. My money’s on it becoming official the first day that it doesn’t affect the 2012 CBT balance.
Yes it is . Keep em coming 😉
Hamels and Cain are very close, and I think neither will hit FA.
Yeah but look at their histories, xfip is an excellent predictive stat for pitchers not named Matt Cain. 1300 IP and Cain has outperformed his xFIP by .91 runs to the tune of a 3.35 ERA. Cain is also trending right as his xFIP has gone down every year for the last 5. Hamels is trending right as well and xFIP predicts his performance well (career xFIP 3.42, era 3.39). xFIP works well for figuring out most pitchers. Matt Cain for whatever reasons keeps flyballs in the yard at a high rate, continually posts low babips and strands runners. It happens year after year after year. xFIP does not work for Matt Cain. Bottom line 1300 career IP, 3.35 ERA, Hamels 1150 IP 3.39 ERA. xFIP does work well for Hamels so his babip is likely to jump considerably fro .255 last year. That would men a egresion in his stats obviously. Only Matt Cain continually puts up babips in the .260 range.
By now, it’s pretty obvious that Cain outperforms his xFIP, year in and year out. The only difference between FIP and xFIP, as far as I know, is normalizing the HR/FB rate. Cain has consistently been able to suppress home runs and it isn’t solely a product of AT&T park (check home/away splits HR/9 vs. the same from Hamels).
I’m sure nm344 was referring to your statement “cole is by far the biggest FA of next off-season.” That is clearly a false statement, and I’m referring to the “by far” portion. They are almost certainly 1A and 1B in the SP field, and I tend to believe that teams would prefer Cain due to his consistency and and the fact that he is physically built for the long haul.
I would imagine the size of the yard in which Cain regularly pitches might have something to do with that.
Except for the fact that Cain’s road HR/9 is 0.78 and Hamels’ is 1.07. So, there goes that argument…
Hamels’ road stats have nothing to do with Cain’s road stats. My argument was that one possible reason for why Cain’s xFIP isn’t indicative of his actual results is because he plays in a very pitcher-friendly stadium most of the time (home and away games). The NLW in general is full of pitcher-friendly stadiums (except Colorado), while only Citi and maybe [whatever sponsor the Marlins managed to get in whatever year] stadium even approach pitcher-friendly in the NLE.
Which is why you would look at their road stats. It is a broader view of the isolated stat (HRs) that causes that significant difference in their xFIP. If Cain is legitimately suppressing home runs, even on the road, then it is proving, albeit not conclusively, of course, that it is a skill for him and not just a product of his home ballpark.
You would probably be interested in some of the stuff that has been written over at fangraphs about this. Somehow, Dave Righetti pitching staffs, whether it be at home or on the road, are excellent at limiting home runs to opponents.
Hmm… Well, that is interesting, but to be fair, the Giants play opponents in the NLW more than in the NLC or NLE, and – as mentioned – the NLW tends towards pitcher-friendly parks. Even if a Giants pitcher isn’t in AT&T, he might be playing in Dodger Stadium, Petco Park (admittedly, right field line isn’t too bad there), or Chase Field (not super pitcher-friendly, but more so than Nationals Field, Turner Field, or Landshark/Sun Life Field). Yes, there is Coors Field, but there’s also Citi Field for the Phillies (the lone pitcher-friendly park in the NLE).
Unlike Cain, Hamels has never put up a +5, so I don’t know what you’re arguing there. As for comparing their builds, it’s going to be a hard sell convincing anyone that the lanky lefty is likely to be more durable over the long run than the guy who is built like an ox and has an easy, repeatable delivery (read: NOT a power pitcher). They’re both fantastic pitchers and I assume that they will both re-sign with their clubs, but the fact that this discussion is even still going on proves that your original statement about Hamels being the best free agent “by far” is blatantly false.
Notice I said “They are almost certainly 1A and 1B in the SP field.” My point was not who is better, but that saying one is by far better than the other, either way, is simply not correct. That’s all.