Rockies To Acquire Guthrie For Hammel, Lindstrom

"Toto, I have a feeling we're not in Baltimore anymore," tweeted righty Jeremy Guthrie this morning after learning he'd been traded from the Orioles to the Rockies.  The clubs reached an agreement that sends Guthrie to Colorado for pitchers Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun first reported the near-deal, which has now been officially announced. 

Guthrie's arbitration hearing against the Orioles was scheduled for this morning with a $7.25MM-$10.25MM spread, but his agent Brodie Van Wagenen of CAA Sports tweeted today he reached an agreement on a one-year deal that fits "within the Rockies' payroll structure" and is "a showing of good faith."  Connolly says Guthrie settled with the Rockies at $8.2MM, which is $550K below the midpoint.  With the Orioles, a hearing had "seemed possible and even likely," tweeted Van Wagenen.

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Guthrie, 32, had been a regular in Baltimore's rotation since being claimed off waivers from the Indians five years ago.  Last year he posted a 4.33 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9, and 39.6% groundball rate in 208 innings for the Orioles.  His skills suggest a 200-inning, 4.50 ERA guy in the AL East.  Guthrie (pictured) will be a useful addition for a Rockies rotation long on options but short on stability, assuming his proclivity to surrender home runs doesn't worsen in Coors Field.  Guthrie will be eligible for free agency after the season, and I would not expect draft pick compensation.

Hammel, 29, posted a 4.76 ERA, 5.0 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9, and 43.9% groundball rate in 170 1/3 innings last year.  Acquired from the Rays three years ago, Hammel has given the Rockies 170+ innings in each season since the trade.  Prior to 2011, Hammel's skills suggested a pitcher capable of a sub-4.00 ERA.  In 2011, however, he was demoted to the Rockies' bullpen in August.  He'll earn $4.75MM in 2012 and will be arbitration eligible for 2013.

Lindstrom, 31, posted a 3.00 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, and 47.3% groundball rate in 54 innings last year for the Rockies.  His strikeout rates have always seemed low for someone averaging a 96 mile-per-hour fastball.  Lindstrom, who was acquired in December 2010 from the Astros, is owed $3.6MM for 2012 and has a $4MM club option for '13.  Interestingly, Guthrie and Lindstrom both put their baseball careers on hold for two-year Mormon missions in their lives.    

With the trade, Orioles vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette has subtracted his rotation's one sure thing in favor of Hammel, who was demoted from the Rockies' rotation last summer.  He did acquire two pitchers for the price of one, as well as potential 2013 control for each.  Noted Duquette on today's conference call, "We didn't have any offers of young prospects for Jeremy."  Duquette has hooked up with Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd for trades twice before, when the former was at the helm of the Red Sox.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.


176 Responses to Rockies To Acquire Guthrie For Hammel, Lindstrom Leave a Reply

  1. goredsgo 3 years ago

    that was fast

  2. I’d rather take my chances with Hammel than Guthrie, seems like a win for the Orioles.

    • Hoosier_Oriole 3 years ago

      I think you’ll be extremely glad you have Guthrie. I can find no reason, other than salary, to have made this trade. The O’s have not improved. They have traded a sure thing for two more of what they already have about 8 of. I can only see this as a way of getting Wada into the rotation. Good luck, Guts. You will be missed.

      Go O’s!

      • SwingtimeInTheRockies 3 years ago

        It’ll depend on which Hammel we sent you.  He’s been brilliant but inconsistent.  He had a down 2011.  Plus Lindstrom is as solid as a brick wall.

      • SwingtimeInTheRockies 3 years ago

        It’ll depend on which Hammel we sent you.  He’s been brilliant but inconsistent.  He had a down 2011.  Plus Lindstrom is as solid as a brick wall.

  3. I’d rather take my chances with Hammel than Guthrie, seems like a win for the Orioles.

  4. I’d rather take my chances with Hammel than Guthrie, seems like a win for the Orioles.

  5. Hmmmm very interesting.

  6. Hmmmm very interesting.

  7. Monday morning zombie haze: For a split second, I thought Guthrie just got dealt for Cole Hamels.

    • vtadave 3 years ago

      If you really thought that, you must have had a lot to drink during the game yesterday.

    • vtadave 3 years ago

      If you really thought that, you must have had a lot to drink during the game yesterday.

    • GlassJawn 3 years ago

      Don’t give Ruben Amaro anymore bad ideas, please.

  8. Monday morning zombie haze: For a split second, I thought Guthrie just got dealt for Cole Hamels.

  9. Monday morning zombie haze: For a split second, I thought Guthrie just got dealt for Cole Hamels.

  10. Hank Li 3 years ago

    Chen got a chance now .

    • PhilR8 3 years ago

      And Wada chance he’ll have!

    • PhilR8 3 years ago

      And Wada chance he’ll have!

    • Chen was probably the #2 guy before this happened.  I guess he now has a chance to start opening day?!?!

    • Hank Li 3 years ago

      no ~ I don’t think so .. He has to prove himself before becoming the Ace of Orioles.

    • Hank Li 3 years ago

      no ~ I don’t think so .. He has to prove himself before becoming the Ace of Orioles.

  11. Hank Li 3 years ago

    Chen got a chance now .

  12. This seems unnecessary for either side, doesn’t it? Baltimore gives up their only steady pitcher for a guy who was cut from the rotation and a reliever, while Colorado further depletes its bullpen depth for a 32 year old with no upside.
    I find it hard to believe that either team will contend, and while I find it reasonable that the O’s move salary, I’m scratching my head about Colorado’s pick up.

    • Hawkeye250 3 years ago

      I’m scratching my head here as well…a team that needs starters trades their most consistent one to a team that already has too many starters? Who wins here?

    • ld303 3 years ago

      Saying “Colorado further depletes its bullpen depth” is a poor characterization of the situation.  Their bullpen is incredibly strong and deep, it’s probably the best part about the team except for Cargo and Tulo even after the Street deal and this.  They won’t miss Lindstrom much even though he was relatively good last year.

      Betancourt
      Beslile
      Reynolds
      Brothers

      Are as good as any top 4 in the NL outside of San Fran and Atlanta.  The rest of the depth can be filled in by the losers of the competition for back of the rotation slots.

      • slasher016 3 years ago

        How about Madson, Marshall, Bray, Chapman?  I’d say that’s better.  And if Chapman isn’t in the bullpen, you slot in Ondrusek, Masset, or Arredondo there.

      • slasher016 3 years ago

        How about Madson, Marshall, Bray, Chapman?  I’d say that’s better.  And if Chapman isn’t in the bullpen, you slot in Ondrusek, Masset, or Arredondo there.

    • ld303 3 years ago

      Saying “Colorado further depletes its bullpen depth” is a poor characterization of the situation.  Their bullpen is incredibly strong and deep, it’s probably the best part about the team except for Cargo and Tulo even after the Street deal and this.  They won’t miss Lindstrom much even though he was relatively good last year.

      Betancourt
      Beslile
      Reynolds
      Brothers

      Are as good as any top 4 in the NL outside of San Fran and Atlanta.  The rest of the depth can be filled in by the losers of the competition for back of the rotation slots.

    • If you ask me, the point is to keep the team from rushing guys to the majors.  I mean, I’m not sure why Hammel couldn’t have done that, but I understand the desire for reliable guys that can throw 200 IP to keep from calling up young pitchers too early.

      • alan104 3 years ago

        Good point. Hamels is an innings eater.

      • bleedrockiepurple 3 years ago

        He’s never thrown over 200 innings in his career, and took a huge step back in 2011. He’s exactly what you described, but no way in hell he reaches 200 innings in the AL East when he couldn’t do it in a much weaker division, where 3 of the the divisional foes plays in pitcher friendly parks and without the DH.

        • I was referencing Guthrie who has thrown 200 IP like it’s nothing the past few years.

          • bleedrockiepurple 3 years ago

            Ah makes sense now, my mistake.

    • If you ask me, the point is to keep the team from rushing guys to the majors.  I mean, I’m not sure why Hammel couldn’t have done that, but I understand the desire for reliable guys that can throw 200 IP to keep from calling up young pitchers too early.

  13. This seems unnecessary for either side, doesn’t it? Baltimore gives up their only steady pitcher for a guy who was cut from the rotation and a reliever, while Colorado further depletes its bullpen depth for a 32 year old with no upside.
    I find it hard to believe that either team will contend, and while I find it reasonable that the O’s move salary, I’m scratching my head about Colorado’s pick up.

  14. Hellobrooklyn 3 years ago

    Why do the Rockies continue to move ground ball pitchers and insist on acquiring flyball/hr pitchers Don’t the know where half their games are played by now?d

    • Thomas Wilson 3 years ago

      Hammel had similar FB% in TB before coming to Denver

    • Thomas Wilson 3 years ago

      Hammel had similar FB% in TB before coming to Denver

  15. Hellobrooklyn 3 years ago

    Why do the Rockies continue to move ground ball pitchers and insist on acquiring flyball/hr pitchers Don’t the know where half their games are played by now?d

  16. I agree with the idea of trading him but was hoping the O’s would get more for Guts.. I hope this wasn’t more about moving his salary than the players they got in return..

    • GoRav114 3 years ago

      salary went up from 8.2 to 8.5 so that is not it. 

  17. I agree with the idea of trading him but was hoping the O’s would get more for Guts.. I hope this wasn’t more about moving his salary than the players they got in return..

  18. stovin 3 years ago

    The Orioles have to find someone who can be their ace now. If they can do that this was a good trade. I see the Orioles signing Cespedes for CF and trading Jones for a ace. I think Hammel and Lindstrom will fit nicely in our bullpen.

    • GoRav114 3 years ago

      It does seem like the obvious answer but I wouldn’t rate the chance of getting Cespedes higher than 25%, unless maybe you guarantee him he won’t be sent down but that is real risky.  Would like to see Cespedes in Center to replace Jones with getting back Jair for Ace, Prado for second, and a third pitching prospect. 

  19. stovin 3 years ago

    The Orioles have to find someone who can be their ace now. If they can do that this was a good trade. I see the Orioles signing Cespedes for CF and trading Jones for a ace. I think Hammel and Lindstrom will fit nicely in our bullpen.

  20. This makes a ton of sense, because the Orioles needed veteran relievers and the Rockies needed a flyball pitcher.

    Wait, what?

  21. Kyle Smith 3 years ago

    Normally, in salary dumps you should take back minor leaguers who are making almost nothing, not guys like Hammel (who sucks) making $4mm+ and Lindstrom (who really sucks).  

  22. Guest 3 years ago

    I bet Guthrie is excited about a change of scenery. I could only imagine how annoying it would be playing for a team like the Orioles who haven’t had a winning season in over 10 yrs. I could almost guarantee that he’s got a smile on his face knowing that he won’t have to pitch against the likes of the Yanks and Red Sox again.

    • Hank Li 3 years ago

      totally agree ..

    • Brian 3 years ago

      Not only that, he’ll get to pitch in Dodger Stadium, Petco Park, and AT&T Park on a consistent basis. Plus, Coors Field isn’t the launching pad it used to be anymore.

    • But he’ll lose that smile when he realizes he needs to pitch in Coors.

      • GoRav114 3 years ago

        I think he will be okay though when he faces Cameron Maybin, Rob Johnson, and Mat latos at the bottom of SD lineup instead of Russell Martin, Brett Gardner, and Curtis Granderson at the bottom of the Yanks lineup. 

        • mypoorbuccos 3 years ago

           go check what team latos plays for

          • GoRav114 3 years ago

            haha, cmon u get the point.  AL east teams, with the exception of the O’s of course, are stacked 1-9 while a lot of National League teams have a few soft spots at the bottom.   

  23. Guest 3 years ago

    I bet Guthrie is excited about a change of scenery. I could only imagine how annoying it would be playing for a team like the Orioles who haven’t had a winning season in over 10 yrs. I could almost guarantee that he’s got a smile on his face knowing that he won’t have to pitch against the likes of the Yanks and Red Sox again.

  24. Guest 3 years ago

    I bet Guthrie is excited about a change of scenery. I could only imagine how annoying it would be playing for a team like the Orioles who haven’t had a winning season in over 10 yrs. I could almost guarantee that he’s got a smile on his face knowing that he won’t have to pitch against the likes of the Yanks and Red Sox again.

  25. Brian 3 years ago

    Good move for Guthrie and the Orioles, and a big ? for the Rockies.

  26. BoatsAndOs 3 years ago

    Was really hoping we would get some youth with this trade

  27. So what did the O’s really get here? One is a relief pitcher and the other is a failed starter. The Rockies get an innings eater, who didn’t get any run support in “Charm City”. That shouldn’t be a problem in Colorado though.
    Why couldn’t Duquette dump Gregg on them as well?
    PS The nice thing is the Rockies actually play in front of their own fans. Guts either pitched in an empty stadium or Red Sox or Yankees fans depending upon who was in town.

    • Over/Under 5 for Guthrie’s ERA next year?

      • Under

        • I’ll take the over.  Loser has to take next offseason off from commenting.

          Agreed?

          • Rabbitov 3 years ago

            Can’t you guys come to a different arrangement, O’s posters are already outnumbered. We can’t afford to lose any more. 

          • Hahahaha. I could use the time off :p

            PS I think I incite the classroom too often that’s why. I dunno.

          • I enjoy your presence here Lefty.  If for no other reason than to have someone to have a good natured argument with.

          • Hahahaha. I could use the time off :p

            PS I think I incite the classroom too often that’s why. I dunno.

        • I’ll take the over.  Loser has to take next offseason off from commenting.

          Agreed?

      • Under

    • Over/Under 5 for Guthrie’s ERA next year?

    • Rabbitov 3 years ago

      O’s gave up 1 year of a 200 inning pitcher for 2 years of a 170 inning one and a reliever with one good year under his belt.  I don’t get it. 

  28. Rabbitov 3 years ago

    Don’t get this trade at all.  Duquette’s first really bad move, and the second time he’s overpaid in a trade (see Teagarden). 

    • orioles 3 years ago

      Third time.  See Eveland.

      • So that makes all his trades!

        Oh And Rabbitov above, I think I am either suspended from “The School” or Expelled. I made it clear the other day as to how I felt about Ownership and the kind of job Duquette is doing. While my classmates might have dug what I said, the teacher wasn’t as enthused.

      • So that makes all his trades!

        Oh And Rabbitov above, I think I am either suspended from “The School” or Expelled. I made it clear the other day as to how I felt about Ownership and the kind of job Duquette is doing. While my classmates might have dug what I said, the teacher wasn’t as enthused.

    • orioles 3 years ago

      Third time.  See Eveland.

  29. Rabbitov 3 years ago

    Don’t get this trade at all.  Duquette’s first really bad move, and the second time he’s overpaid in a trade (see Teagarden). 

  30. bvw87 3 years ago

    Both teams lose one Mormon only to gain another. The Lord works in mysterious ways.

    • Eugene_in_Oregon 3 years ago

      You keep up with players’ religions?  Wow.  Not sure what to make of that.

    • Eugene_in_Oregon 3 years ago

      You keep up with players’ religions?  Wow.  Not sure what to make of that.

    • Eugene_in_Oregon 3 years ago

      You keep up with players’ religions?  Wow.  Not sure what to make of that.

  31. Vinnie White 3 years ago

    For me this is a change of scenery move for both parties.  Gutherie gets to leave the Brutal AL East and come out west.  To those who are bemoaning Coors, what exactly are the Yankees stadium, Toronto, Finway and even his own home park but hitters parks?  He now gets to pitch in SD, LA, SF and Coors is no different than any other parks he has been in.  Good move.

  32. Vinnie White 3 years ago

    For me this is a change of scenery move for both parties.  Gutherie gets to leave the Brutal AL East and come out west.  To those who are bemoaning Coors, what exactly are the Yankees stadium, Toronto, Finway and even his own home park but hitters parks?  He now gets to pitch in SD, LA, SF and Coors is no different than any other parks he has been in.  Good move.

  33. optionn 3 years ago

    Addition by subtraction by getting rid of Guthrie.  The guy is a classic hanger on.  Now if the Orioles had the fortitude to get rid of Matusz they might start making headway in that division.

  34. I’m guessing the Rox made this trade because Hammel is unreliable and Guthrie looks better when the Rox trade him at the ASB. Lindstrom never really worked out here. As a Rox fan I didn’t trust Lindstrom or Hammel

    The Rox look like they are stock piling pitchers for the inevitable “Boston/New York” Needs 1 more pitcher to make a run. At the end of the season.

    IF the rockies make the playoffs this year it would be pretty lucky. Young team lots of new faces. Next year though they could be a powerhouse IF they can unload some of these pitchers they have stockpiled.

    Just my opinion

  35. Tim 3 years ago

    OK.  Now trade JJ Hardy, Weiters and all of your other SURE players.  Sign Manny.  That will be the perfect off-season.

    14 years of losing makes all of us fans a bit cynical.  

  36. Tim 3 years ago

    OK.  Now trade JJ Hardy, Weiters and all of your other SURE players.  Sign Manny.  That will be the perfect off-season.

    14 years of losing makes all of us fans a bit cynical.  

  37. Stuart 3 years ago

    Guthrie has a walk in safe for his shoe collection

  38. Runtime 3 years ago

    I can’t believe they traded their “ace” for practically nothing…

    At least the Jays got Lawrie back when they got rid of Marcum (and then in turn… Romero improved a ton… but still)

  39. JaysNesan 3 years ago

    I think O’s did not get the right return in this trade. Even though Guthrie’s winning records were not impressive, he pitched well in AL east. The team offence and the  bull pen were also reason for his loosing records. Now Orioles don’t have a pitcher who can reasonably gives a chance to compete and can pitch at least more than five innings in a game. Orioles will have to carry six men rottation and no pitcher in the current rottation has the ability to pitch five innings in consistent baisis. I think 2012 will be worse than 2011.

  40. The_Porcupine 3 years ago

    I do not get this trade at all.  Guthrie isn’t a world beater type pitcher, but I expected to get a little more than this.  Maybe a “B” level prospect or 2.  Instead, they get 2 re-treads (with limited upside) who are not suited for the American League.  And from Colorado’s side, the plus is that Guthrie will give you innings and some rotation stability (the same things he did for the Orioles).  I’m not sure he is significantly better than Hammel though.

  41. Am I crazy to suggest that Camden yards especially in the AL East is a bigger hitters park then Coors?

    • Vinnie White 3 years ago

      As well as Houston, Philly, Cinci, Boston, NY, Toronto

    • notsureifsrs 3 years ago

      kinda. coors is definitely a more extreme hitters’ park than camden, but 4 out of 5 AL East parks are hitter friendly and the lineups are relentless. 2 of the 5 AL West parks are quite pitcher friendly, another is neutral, and the lineups aren’t nearly as strong

  42. BTW Guthrie just changed his Twitter AV to John Denver….lol and he posted a picture Tebowing

  43. don17048 3 years ago

    An Ace that lost 34 games in the last 2 years.

    • rundmc1981 3 years ago

      Still better than who’s now their ace, Zach Britton – who ended the year in AA – or Brain Matusz (10.69 ERA in ’11). Maybe they’ll give the Opening Day start to Chen, who has never thrown a MLB pitch.

      I know there’s long-term implications, but they just completely blew up fielding a MLB pitching rotation. I’d be surprised if they don’t ask Adam Jones to make a few starts, based on how much they overvalue him.

      • Matt Bennett 3 years ago

        Britton did not end the year at AA. He came up in August and made 9 starts. Brian Matusz will start the year in AAA and we’ll have to dominate there to get called up. A guthrie trade was probably going to happen from the beginning of the offseason. Probably why we have added so many starters.

  44. FS54 3 years ago

    Orioles need to trade Markakis and Jones as well. Get whatever return they can and try to build a solid minor league system. They may not have any type A players and new CBA is not favorable to them either, but building through the system is their best option.

  45. Chillin_in_California 3 years ago

    Guthrie has always given up a ton of homers. Its going to be BP when he pitches at Coors field

    • bleedrockiepurple 3 years ago

      He’s going to a much weaker division without the DH and gets to travel, consistently to 3 of the most friendly hitters parks in baseball in Petco/dodger stadium/AT&T, not sure I agree.

  46. I’m glad they traded Guthrie.  He’s a good pitcher but he’s a free agent at the end of the season.  They needed to either trade him or sign him to an extension and it didn’t seem like they were close to signing him. 
    I think they would have done better trading him at the deadline last year but they were worried about having warm bodies in the rotation.  I’m not crazy about the guys they received in return but DD says they were never offered prospects.  So better to get something for him now then to just let him walk at the end of the season.

  47. Mike1L 3 years ago

    I recall that Baltimore was asking for a lot for Guthrie last year in June, so this trade, which looks like getting a little younger and a little cheaper, might be a good step if it shows that the O’s have a better handle on their talent’s worth on the trade market.  

    • bleedrockiepurple 3 years ago

      Not saving any money. Guthrie will earn 8.2 MM with Rox and Hammel/Lidstrom earn a combined 8.5 MM in 2012.

      • Mike1L 3 years ago

        Rapada was DFA’d (not that he was making much) and Baltimore is filling two roster spots, and getting an extra year of control out of both.  Might help. 

        • bleedrockiepurple 3 years ago

          Yeah definitely. Not saying it was an awful deal for the O’s just filling you in on the financial side of the deal.

  48. What about the Nationals bullpen?  I don’t think the Rockies’ bullpen is stronger by any stretch of the imagination.

  49. AlKelz 3 years ago

    Gutherie has more class than the organization which just traded him. Good luck with the Rockies ” Guts ” , and from a life long O’s fan , Thank you 😉

  50. JacobyWanKenobi 3 years ago

    I’m reserving judgment until I see how Guthrie does in Col. I think the change of scenery, and pitching against lighter hitting league will help a lot.

    • JacobyWanKenobi 3 years ago

       By that I mean on Guthrie as a pitcher, not the deal itself.

  51. Chillin_in_California 3 years ago

    I guess the rockies philosophy is that you can never have enough 4th starters

    • Trushgandor 3 years ago

      You sign enough starters some of them have to be good….at least they will have mediocre calibre depth in Colorado Springs when guys go down.

  52. tomymogo 3 years ago

    Hammel and Guthrie are pretty much the same, and O’s also got Lindstrom, Orioles won the deal from my perspective

  53. xnick777x 3 years ago

    Rockies have way too many starters… last thing we need is more players for tracy to switch in and out every day.

  54. Given how Hammel has looked great and Lindstrom hasnt allowed a run yet this season, this trade looks phenomenally favorable to the Orioles

  55. As an O’s fan it is kind of interesting.  Moving our staff ace is kind of a big deal.

  56. As an O’s fan it is kind of interesting.  Moving our staff ace is kind of a big deal.

  57. Thomas Wilson 3 years ago

    Lindstrom was good last year, Hammel was good in 2009-10 should be a win for Baltimore

  58. Thomas Wilson 3 years ago

    Lindstrom was good last year, Hammel was good in 2009-10 should be a win for Baltimore

  59. You don’t find it concerning that over the past 3 years his K/9 has gone down and his BB/9 has gone up?

  60. You don’t find it concerning that over the past 3 years his K/9 has gone down and his BB/9 has gone up?

  61. monkeyking42 3 years ago

    I agree about Hammel being a bit underrated, but FIP and fWAR probably aren’t the best ways to evaluate Guthrie.  His career BABIP is .273, and never higher than .286 in a full season.  He’s as good an example as anybody that limiting hits on balls in play is a repeatable skill for some guys.

  62. bigpat 3 years ago

     Hammel will NEVER post an ERA under 3.5 unless he’s strictly a reliever. Sorry, advanced metrics are very useful in many situations but when you consistently underperform, I think it’s more than just bad luck every year. He is a poor man’s Ricky Nolasco. These guys will always be overvalued because they have decent secondary stuff yet can’t get their fastball by hitters on a consistent basis and get hit hard.

  63. GoRav114 3 years ago

    I am happier hearing you saying that as an O’s fan who feels hosed.  Guts took the ball every fifth day for several years going against the other teams #1.  Guthrie is an incredible guy and a great clubhouse guy to go along with consistency and aggression.  He should have never been the O’s ace but that is how terrible we are.  If you expect him to be the Rox ace no way, he is a great #3, good #2, and below average #1. 

  64. I could see that.  I’m just not so sure it’s a slam dunk as you suggest.

  65. ld303 3 years ago

    2011 looks like an outlier year because you want it to.  It wasn’t just some BABIP outlier.  He had mechanical problems, couldn’t strike anyone out, and walked a ton more than he did in 2009 and 2010.  He’s a serious risk going forward and you’re wrong to ignore that.

  66. notsureifsrs 3 years ago

    it’s an outlier, but a concerning one

    k%: 17.3 18.3 12.7
    bb%: 5.5 6.1 9.2
    swstr%: 9.5 7.2 6.5

  67. Yeah I mean, if Hammel returns to his previous form I’ll be quite pleased.

  68. Kyle Smith 3 years ago

    His fip and xfip last year were awful, just like his ERA, and the good ones in the past are more likely a mirage. due over park adjustment and just a case of the opposite of out performing your peripherals. I do not know how war is calculated, but giving him 3.9 war in 2010 is a travesty. He is john lannan or maybe worse.

  69. Thomas Wilson 3 years ago

    He pitched really well after getting sent to the pen to work some things out over his final seven games including 2 starts he had a 1.85 ERA with 17K/5BB over 24 innings so if whatever it was that had him screwing up was fixed he could easily return to form

  70. notsureifsrs 3 years ago

    “just go back to being good, kid. then you’ll be fine”

  71. Good to hear.

    Are you a rockies fan?

  72. Good to hear.

    Are you a rockies fan?

  73. Kyle Smith 3 years ago

    in what way? All he was worth was a lot of innings and some groundballs.  When looking backwards to evaluate performance ERA is all the matters because it is what happened in the games, not what should have happened (not xFIP or FIP), and Hammels sucked in 09 and 10. He was close to 5 era both years.

    Now if you were saying that maybe Hammels could potentially pitch to his xFIP and FIPs and you liked the trade because of that then all right, enjoy some potential and hope for the best.

  74. Kyle Smith 3 years ago

    in what way? All he was worth was a lot of innings and some groundballs.  When looking backwards to evaluate performance ERA is all the matters because it is what happened in the games, not what should have happened (not xFIP or FIP), and Hammels sucked in 09 and 10. He was close to 5 era both years.

    Now if you were saying that maybe Hammels could potentially pitch to his xFIP and FIPs and you liked the trade because of that then all right, enjoy some potential and hope for the best.

  75. Thomas Wilson 3 years ago

    FIP is not Park Adjusted

  76. notsureifsrs 3 years ago

    a dropping swinging-strike rate is much more damning than k/9, which can vary a bit

    bridging the gap between fixable and fixed is just not always easy. some of hammel’s numbers suggest his talent level may be closer to 2011 than 2009-2010. look at this pitch values over the last 3 years:

    fastball: -12 -11 -11 (crazy)

    slider -2.6 +5.4 -2.4

    curve +14 -0.7 -3.3

    change -8 -1 0

    even in good years, most of his pitches are not effective. he lived on his curveball in 2009, his slider in 2010, and had nothing in 2011. that’s a pretty erratic profile

    maybe a change of scenery and some new coaches will do him good. someone pointed out that after tweaking some things near the end of last season he had a solid final month. but that’s about the only reason for optimism i can find in his numbers so far

  77. notsureifsrs 3 years ago

    you don’t understand what you’re talking about. FIP doesn’t tell you “what should have happened”. it tells you what did happen – it just doesn’t tell you everything that happened. neither does OBP, for example, but that’s still a useful stat

    the purpose of FIP is to separate [what the pitcher did] from [what the pitcher and his defense did]. your claim that “ERA is all the matters because it is what happened in the games” is ludicrous because ERA is not being used to evaluate game performance or team performance, but pitcher performance. by itself, ERA is poorly suited for that purpose

  78. notsureifsrs 3 years ago

    you don’t understand what you’re talking about. FIP doesn’t tell you “what should have happened”. it tells you what did happen – it just doesn’t tell you everything that happened. neither does OBP, for example, but that’s still a useful stat

    the purpose of FIP is to separate [what the pitcher did] from [what the pitcher and his defense did]. your claim that “ERA is all the matters because it is what happened in the games” is ludicrous because ERA is not being used to evaluate game performance or team performance, but pitcher performance. by itself, ERA is poorly suited for that purpose

  79. rockvssingleparents 3 years ago

    Yeah, being the ace of a Major League Baseball team is overrated. 

  80. rockvssingleparents 3 years ago

    Yeah, being the ace of a Major League Baseball team is overrated. 

  81. vtadave 3 years ago

    I’d take being a #4 any day….

  82. alan104 3 years ago

    Come on. Guthrie has been though on alot of teams. I’m glad he’s going to the NL.

  83. Rabbitov 3 years ago

    Call me old school.  I think W-L has at least SOME bearing in what the pitcher does.  Now if a pitcher gets the worst run support in the league all year, then ok.  Or the most, then ok.  But those games, when the game is 3-2, and the starter shuts down the other team.   Or when your team gets a 1-0 lead, and you need the shutout or nothing.  That’s earned, thats competitiveness.   Getting the outs when you need them.

    As for ERA, that isn’t a team stat.  Obviously other factors will affect it, but not enough to make the stat completely unreliable or inconsistent.  

  84. FacelessGeneralManager 3 years ago

    Heck, ill even take being a #5 any day

  85. OhthePossibilities 3 years ago

     Mechanical problems, meet Rick Peterson.

  86. Vinnie White 3 years ago

    I just don’t think that Coors is the best hitting park any more.  Houston, Philly, Cinci, Boston, NY, Toronto are all just as good now, I believe.

  87. FS54 3 years ago

    I will even take being a middle inning reliever.

  88. No, Millwood was worse for us as “Staff Ace”, he was like 0 and 10 before his 1st win. Plus, what’s your beef with Guthrie? He should have never been a #1, but in Angelos/MacPhail world he was.

    PS I just hope he isn’t flipped like Napoli was Blue Jays to Rangers.

  89. rainyperez 3 years ago

    Oh he’s going to benefit by pitching in AT&T, Dodger Stadium, Petco, and a humidor-ized Mile High. I see a turn around for him.

  90. FS54 3 years ago

    good? maybe good for hitters, not for baseball.

  91. Thomas Wilson 3 years ago

    Since the days of David Nied and Doug Million

  92. Well, I wish I could give you good news but I’m not sure I can.  Guthrie is solid but unspectacular.  He has a good fastball, but sometimes it straightens out and is a little too hittable.

    That said, he tends to out-pitch his peripherals, so there’s hope.

  93. I think his point is that those stats ignore the situations involved in pitching.

    For exmaple, CC Sabathia has mentioned that he doesn’t pitch as hard when he’s up 5 or 6 runs.

  94. es0terik 3 years ago

    That’s implying that the Baltimore Orioles are a Major League Baseball team.

  95. Thomas Wilson 3 years ago

    Well the Rockies are aiming more for 2013-2020 than for 2012 but Guthrie should be fine in the role Jason Marquis filled back in 2009

  96. Rabbitov 3 years ago

    I am in no way saying your argument or the arguments against me are invalid.But are you really saying, that a pitcher’s own performance has nothingto do with their wins or era?  I will never buy that. 

  97. GoRav114 3 years ago

    The O’s and Rox GM were sitting around smoking stogies trying to figure out how to make both teams worse at once.  Brilliant!

  98. Vinnie White 3 years ago

    Yes, I meant that those parks are good hitting parks.

  99. FacelessGeneralManager 3 years ago

    Obviously nothing. Do you not see that? 

  100. OhthePossibilities 2 years ago

    Let’s hear it for NEVER!

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