Braves Sign Ervin Santana

Having seen their rotation come into question due to a host of injuries, the Braves made what would have been a relatively shocking move just one week ago; Atlanta announced this morning that they have signed right-hander Ervin Santana to a one-year deal that is reportedly worth $14.1MM — the exact amount of the qualifying offer he rejected back in November.

Santana-Ervin

It's been a rocky offseason for Santana to say the least. Coming off one of the finest seasons of his career, the 31-year-old entered free agency with his eyes on a large multi-year contract, but like fellow free agents Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez, found that teams preferred to wait out the Masahiro Tanaka signing before turning to that trio of top MLB free agents.

Jimenez and Santana, in particular, found suitors difficult to come by due to the compensatory draft picks attached to their names after rejecting qualifying offers. When Jimenez eventually struck a four-year deal worth $50MM (the same amount Garza was guaranteed), Santana was left as the odd man out on the free agent market. He held out for his four-year deal shortly but ultimately set a new course and targeted a one-year deal with an eye toward signing as quickly as possible. That new goal came with the news that he was splitting from agent Bean Stringfellow of Proformance. However, Santana (and Jose Bautista) stuck with agent Jay Alou, who resigned from Proformance shortly after the news.

Santana posted a 3.24 ERA with 6.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a career-best 46.2 percent ground-ball rate in 211 innings for the Royals last year — his lone season with Kansas City. Royals GM Dayton Moore acquired him from the Angels last offseason in what amounted to a salary dump after Santana posted an ERA north of 5.00 in 2012 and was rewarded for his faith in a bounce-back campaign. Santana now has a sub-4.00 ERA in three of his past four seasons and has seen his ability to produce ground-balls steadily increase since 2011.

The Braves didn't look like a team that needed a great deal of pitching after a 2013 season in which their starters finished sixth in the Majors with a combined 3.51 ERA, tied for sixth with a 3.58 FIP and also tied for sixth with a 3.65 xFIP. However, the team saw Tim Hudson depart via free agency and sign with the Giants, and more recently, they've been beset by injuries in their rotation. Kris Medlen left his Sunday start and is believed to have ligament damage in his right elbow that could require surgery. Brandon Beachy is experiencing tightness in his biceps after undergoing a pair of elbow surgeries (one of which was Tommy John) in the past two years, and Mike Minor could miss a couple of weeks to open the season after urinary tract surgery this offseason.

By making this signing, the Braves are sacrificing their No. 26 overall selection in the draft, though that loss is lessened somewhat by the fact that they will have the No. 32 overall pick after losing Brian McCann to the Yankees as a free agent. The signing also means that Royals will now gain the No. 28 selection in the 2014 draft, as Yahoo's Jeff Passan tweeted over the weekend. That will give Kansas City four of the first 58 picks in this year's draft.

Santana also drew heavy interest from the Blue Jays, Orioles (even after the Jimenez signing) and the Twins late in his free agency. Minnesota even offered a three-year deal believed to be worth $30-33MM, but Santana held firm to his desire for a one-year deal, believing himself capable of posting a big season and re-entering the free agent market next offseason. Santana, of course, could find himself in the same situation next year, but the value of next year's qualifying offer could be north of $15MM. As such, he's likely to earn at least $29MM over the next two seasons anyway, meaning Minnesota's offer is just $1-4MM greater over one more year.

Beyond that, the Braves have a tight payroll and had to make a clear exception to sign Santana this season; they may not be able to afford the risk of extending a qualifying offer, even after a solid season. Finally, another strong year would give Santana back-to-back seasons of well above-average performance and four seasons of a sub-4.00 ERA in five tries. That could be enough to persuade teams that were wary of his rough 2012 and/or the medical reports on his elbow to show interest.

MLB.com's Mark Bowman first tweeted that the two sides were nearing completion on a deal, and David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted that the Braves would announce the signing of Santana this morning. Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes confirmed that it was a one-year pact (Spanish Twitter link). Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported Santana's salary (via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.


154 Responses to Braves Sign Ervin Santana Leave a Reply

  1. NL_East_Rivalry 1 year ago

    14 mil, guess he thinks Braves have a good chance to boost his value next season.

  2. FTNS 1 year ago

    This move simply had to be done

  3. Jack Cox 1 year ago

    Frank Wren can go jump in a pit of fire. Seriously, I’m just absolutely ill right now, We would have had him if it hadn’t been for those Medlen kids.

    • MB923 1 year ago

      After all the good extensions he gave out, you’re suddenly saying he should jump in a pit of fire?

      Now I don’t think this is that great of a move (mostly cause of the draft pick loss for a 1 year player), but the Braves had a fine offseason

      Edit – Didn’t read it right. Too early in the morning.

      • NL_East_Rivalry 1 year ago

        I think he is a fan of another team and is mad Braves signed him, not one of the Braves fans that flame Wren.

      • Jack Cox 1 year ago

        Dude, I’m a Jays fan. I have a right to be livid.

        • MB923 1 year ago

          My mistake. It’s early in the morning and I’m still not fully up yet. Sorry man.

        • Ruben_Tomorrow 1 year ago

          With his fly ball rate, you should be thrilled he’s not going to the AL East, let alone the team you like.

          • kcstengelSr 1 year ago

            NL East at least has the bigger parks of Miami and Washington, so Santana might survive better in Atlanta.
            I guess Ervin will have to practice his bunting skills.

          • Teufelshunde4 1 year ago

            And some pretty bad offenses to boot. Mets and Phillies will struggle. Marlins have some young talent. Nats have decent offense if LaRoche hits and Harper stays healthy.

          • TheRealRyan 1 year ago

            Over the past 3 seasons, Santana has a better GB% rate than Oriole starting pitchers Norris, Jimenez, Tillman and Chen, as well as Blue Jay SPs Morrow, Buehrle and Happ.

        • MB923 1 year ago

          Though as Ruben Tomorrow just pointed out, I think he’d be a disaster in the AL East.

          • mwagner26 1 year ago

            “Ruben Tomorrow”

            Nice.

        • Ray Tran 1 year ago

          I’m a jays fan too but his number against the AL East is brutal. I would of been happy if he signed with us though..

        • publius varrus 1 year ago

          I’m a Jays fan, too, and I’m a little disappointed that nothing substantial was done to the rotation or 2B. What I really apppreciate, though, is the Scooby Doo reference. Nice one. :)

        • TheoHoyer 1 year ago

          You want Jeff Samardzija?

        • Peterborough Dave 1 year ago

          Yeah but now maybe the Jays can actually SIGN their first-round picks with 14 big ones floating around.

          Thoughts?

          • TheRealRyan 1 year ago

            If that was the reason, I would think Blue Jay fans should be even more angry. There is a very good chance that both of their first round picks never become average MLB players ever. To think that they would pass up on an above average MLB player today, that could help an overall decent team contend, for a potential upgrade 3-5+ years down the road would be extremely foolish in my opinion.

        • Teufelshunde4 1 year ago

          Man you guys were signing AA’s praises just a year ago. AA proly doesnt have much job security unless Jays take a step forward this season. Another last place finish and AA is proly finished as a gm in Toronto.

        • BobMarley22 1 year ago

          Look in the Brightside, at least we have Tomo Ohka. Or better yet, the jays could sign Tracey McGrady.

    • bobbie922 1 year ago

      “If it hadn’t been for those Medlen kids”. Totally caught that haha. Awesome! Sorry your Jays didn’t get him, I really thought he was going there…

      • MB923 1 year ago

        If I was a Jays fan, or any fan of any AL East team (and I am as you can see), I’d be glad we didn’t sign Santana.

        • bobbie922 1 year ago

          Same. But it sounds like he wanted him pretty bad haha. I think that the NL East is actually a solid fit in the end. Personally I thought he’d end up in Washington until they traded for Fister.

          • MB923 1 year ago

            NL East is arguably the weakest hitters division in baseball. If not then 2nd to the AL Central.

        • Karkat 1 year ago

          As a Sox fan, I was very hopeful that the Jays or Orioles would sign Santana >:3

          • MB923 1 year ago

            Haha, well of course you would want another team in that division to sign him.

          • TD272 1 year ago

            As an O’s fan I’m thankful he didn’t sign with us.

          • cyyoung 1 year ago

            Not me, they were targeting Medeiros in the Draft.

  4. blovy8 1 year ago

    Tough for them to give up the pick for one year of the guy though.

    • Quikmix 1 year ago

      my thoughts exactly. Santana has no particular attachment to anything but contract size. If his season is good and he can sign a deal elsewhere, it’s an instant walk.

    • NL_East_Rivalry 1 year ago

      If he does well they could possibly get another pick for him or just get him again at a good rate. Although if Braves pitchers are healthy by then, Braves may be nice and just let him walk.

      • MB923 1 year ago

        The qualifying offer is just going to increase each year with payrolls increasing more and more. The free agent market next year for SP I believe is even better. If the Braves decided to give him a QO, I think Santana should accept it. It took him this late to sign, it would take even later next year if he turned down a QO.

        We’ll see what happens though.

        • Bronx Bombers 1 year ago

          Although that is true, I think more teams will be looking for starting pitching next off season, not only because there will be more of a supply but the number of teams looking for starting pitching this offseason seemed small until recently with all the injuries. But also the pitching market was held up this offseason because of Tanaka.

          • MB923 1 year ago

            “Although that is true, I think more teams will be looking for starting pitching next off season”

            True, but there are better SP on the market next year than there are this year, unless some are to get extensions which is certainly possible (like Lester and Scherzer). You’re right about the injuries, but those are things we can’t predict.

            “But also the pitching market was held up this offseason because of Tanaka.”

            True but not every team was in on Tanaka, and of all the teams who were in on Tanaka (Yankees, DBacks, Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners, Astros, White Sox….maybe another team I left out), none of those teams as far as we know showed any interest in Santana (at least based on reports, which is why I said as far as we know). Maybe the Yankees if they had missed out on Tanaka, but after Tanaka was signed, they showed no interest in signing Santana

    • Nick 1 year ago

      They got a first round pick for McCann, so not too much lost

      • MB923 1 year ago

        It’s technically a Supplemental pick for McCann, not a first round pick. The supplemental pick will be the Braves first overall pick I believe

  5. Jack Cox 1 year ago

    I’m just about done, this is going to be an utterly miserable year for the Jays. This team’s rotation has so many question marks and AA sat on his hands and did nothing except sign Dioner Navarro this year.

    • robbyb 1 year ago

      Not to be bashing, but do you think Santana was the difference maker that was going to make the Jays not have “an utterly miserable year?”

      • Jack Cox 1 year ago

        It was worth giving it a shot while he has protected picks.

        • Baseball Realism 1 year ago

          They did give it a shot and a real good one too. It was down to 2 teams until the Braves jumped in last minute.

          • Torontopoly 1 year ago

            Which is exactly why he should have just got the deal done when he had the chance. AA had a strategy; wait out the market until value drops considerably. That happened and instead of pulling the trigger he waited even longer and Atlanta managed come in to the fold in two days and get something done. Had AA offered $15MM a week ago like he should have Atlanta never would have been a factor.

          • RetortForm 1 year ago

            Santana and his reps can read the same stats the rest of us can. They never intended to sign a 1 year deal in the AL East. They know as well as anyone that it would have been the last good payday he got. He’d be out of the rotation by June with an era in the stratosphere. He’d be going from this to accepting a minor league deal next year. The Jay and Os were just negotiating ploys until someone got hurt in a location where he could succeed enough to get another QO. If ATL offers one next year, you can bet he’ll snatch it right up.
            TL;DR: don’t be mad at AlexA on this one.

          • Torontopoly 1 year ago

            I agree with much of what you said but unless Santana had a time machine and saw the future, I can hazard to guess that he wouldn’t have sat around much longer banking on some unlucky team to have injury problems.

            I still believe AA et. al. could have got this done had they thrown in some more cash a week ago instead of continuing a slow play until someone hit on the river.

            Atlanta is unlikely to offer a QO due to internal financial restrictions which actually probably plays well into Santana’s plans (if he has a good year). It will remove the draft pick considerations from him signing elsewhere to a longer term deal.

        • Peterborough Dave 1 year ago

          Brother, they are FAR from a contending team. Santana may have bumped them from 74 to maybe 78 wins, all things being equal. It wasn’t like he was the final piece of the puzzle. The allocation of 14 million at this stage is better spent on scouting, player development, and signing draftees- the one absolutely proven way of building a winner (and yes, I regret the Dickey trade). But hey, if they finish 3-4 games out of a playoff spot, I’ll happily eat my hat :)

    • I’m sure the Jays will miss you and Santana. Maybe you’ll get a poster as well.

    • LazerTown 1 year ago

      Yes, did not like the inactivity. They emptied out their farm last winter for a few additions, and then do nothing? Have to do something, not just empty it and when it fails give up, they are going to be set back quite a bit and they not even trying now.

    • Matt 1 year ago

      Guess waiting till March to try and sign a starter is a bad idea. AA is a joke hopefully this will be his last off season because he is the only one who didn’t think signing a starter was necessary. Guess Toma Okha is our pitching upgrade for the year

  6. Mil8Ball 1 year ago

    Not really improving the team after Medlan went down. Best case scenario is he is similar to Medlan…worst case, well we all know.

    • disadvantage 1 year ago

      I can’t deny we’ve seen Santana at his worst, but most teams would be thrilled if a replacement player was “similar to Medlen.”

  7. kcstengelSr 1 year ago

    Surprised he did not sign with Philadelphia. Cole Hamels is a question mark and the Braves were hurting if 3/5 of the rotation is on the DL. The Phillies playoff hopes just sunk a bit more.

    • Ron Loreski 1 year ago

      He’s too young.

    • BCleveland3381 1 year ago

      Lets be honest here. The Mets have more of a chance at the playoffs than the Phillies do. And the Mets have almost no chance.

    • Nathan Justice 1 year ago

      What playoff hopes?

  8. I’d say this worked out for everyone, but I’m sure that the Braves would’ve preferred Medlen.

  9. Good deal for Atlanta. Anytime you can get a solid arm for one year, it’s seldom a bad move. They lose a pick, but stand to gain one with a qualifying offer next year. For a team that lost Hudson and has some injuries to Medlen and Beachy, they could use a guy who can usually be counted on for 30+ starts

    • MB923 1 year ago

      “They lose a pick, but stand to gain one with a qualifying offer next year”

      Only if he turns it down. And the amount of $ for it is going to increase next season. Going forward, I think we might see more players accept the QO.

      • Then they get Santana essentially on a 2-year deal. When Ricky Nolasco gets 4 years, I would take Santana for half the years and a few more million a year in almost every instance

        • MB923 1 year ago

          Of course. The Nolasco deal was terrible.

          • bravo_84 1 year ago

            You can just as easily say the same thing and input Ubaldo or Garza. Would rather have Santana on 1/14 than any of those other deals. Sure the deal cost us a pick, but it would’ve cost a lot more in terms of potential prospects to make a trade.

          • MB923 1 year ago

            My point is not about how good or bad the contract is or compared to the other contracts. My point is that he might accept the QO next year. And yes it looks like it will be a better deal than the other ones (this is assuming he has a 2013 performance again) if he did accept it next year

          • bravo_84 1 year ago

            From a front office standpoint you just have to consider the lost pick a sunk cost and not even think about the prospect of recouping it. If it works out that they do get one back next year great, but with Santana’s age and volatility through this point of his career I wouldn’t hang my hat on anything other than innings pitched.

          • Bronx Bombers 1 year ago

            While I agree with that, historically and statistically pitchers are usually better when they switch from the AL to NL. I would almost hang my hat on that even though I’m not saying he will have a better season, but if his numbers regress they shouldn’t be by much. I wouldn’t be surprised if his ERA were below 3.50.

      • Bronx Bombers 1 year ago

        But Santana is going to realize if he has a down season he could risk that, most players are looking for years even if the AAV of the contract is lower then the QO. Alot of players want security but I bet he was looking for a contract for 5+ years. I bet he had many offers for 2-4 year contracts but passed on them. And earlier this offseason it was reported he was asking for around 75million which is too much for him.

        • MB923 1 year ago

          If he does have a down season, then I can’t expect the Braves to give him a QO. If he has a good but not great season (say like 2010) and if he was to get a QO, I think he’d take it

          But we won’t know until next offseason. So we wait and see

          Is it Opening Day yet?

        • Plus, if he accepts the qualifying offer after this season, he’d be trying to get a big payday at age 33 for 2016 and beyond. It’ll be tougher to land his target of 4-5 years at that age. He’s not getting any younger

          • Bronx Bombers 1 year ago

            Right that the other thing is that he’s getting older so not only will it be tougher for him to piece together a good season but teams won’t want to sign him for too many years as he approaches 35.

          • TheRealRyan 1 year ago

            Yeah, but if he throws 200 IP and say an ERA of 3.90, he would be a 5 year younger, slightly better version of Bronson Arroyo. Bronson Arroyo got 10-12 million for his age 37-39 seasons. Santana will be going into his age 32 season after next year.

          • Collateral96 1 year ago

            Should have just taken the 33 million he’s been good and bad for years and he’s always given up more than 25 home runs per year. Solid the past few years but not 5 years worth at 15 million.

      • Karkat 1 year ago

        If he does, then Atlanta gives ~2/30 for Santana, which is not bad at all given the market and his pre-FA expectations.

        • MB923 1 year ago

          Agreed

        • oh Hal 1 year ago

          It depends on what sort of pitcher he is going forward. Seems as if everyone assumes that he’s new and improved.

  10. WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 1 year ago

    That was a long road back to 1/14.1

    • MB923 1 year ago

      Just under $86 million of what he originally wanted

    • RetortForm 1 year ago

      I’d say anyone in his shoes would have taken that gamble.

  11. jon_ullman 1 year ago

    The loss of the 26th pick is not lessened by having the 32nd pick! The value of the 26th pick has nothing to do with whether or not you have the 32nd pick.

    • itstheduke 1 year ago

      Disagree. His point is that losing the 26th pick is worse if you don’t have that near-slot pick than if you do. If the Braves are eyeing a particular player in that range (lower first round to upper second round), then by having the 32nd pick they still have somewhat of a chance of getting that player. But without the 32nd pick they have no chance.

      • jon_ullman 1 year ago

        Your argument assumes that is one specific player that is both available in the late first round and much better than other players available in the late first round. If this were true then you’re right, having two picks in 26-32 is largely redundant but having one is very valuable. In principle it could be true but more likely it’s not. In reality there are a large number of players who are about equally good and are available at that part of the draft. Having the 26th pick increases the number of such players you draft by 1, regardless of whether or not you also have the 32nd pick. In hindsight there will likely be one player in the late first round who is dramatically better than everyone else but that doesn’t mean you would have known to draft that player.

  12. Nathan Justice 1 year ago

    Well paint me red and shove a crowbar up my nose. They signed him. I think this means Beachy has a bit more than tightness……………..

    • bravo_84 1 year ago

      I said the same yesterday. That “routine tightness” ended his season last year, and let’s not forget even if he was healthy he has never thrown more than 141 innings in any season of his professional career.

      • Nathan Justice 1 year ago

        Yes I do remember you mentioning that. Santana at least pitched 211 last year at 3.24. I think he’ll do alright at Turner. He also wants to do well do he can get that big money contract next year.

        • bravo_84 1 year ago

          I’m really hoping he comes in with a chip on his shoulder. He could be a much better addition than people think if he has a little fight in him and comes in and really listens to Roger.

  13. bravo_84 1 year ago

    I’m pretty pumped that Liberty Media bit the bullet and made this happen. I really didn’t expect it to work out for financial reasons, but from a pure economic standpoint the opportunity cost of not doing this could’ve been much higher. This is a risk well worth taking.

  14. TimotheusATL 1 year ago

    good move in a tight spot by Wren (I’d always rather them cough up cash than sell the farm), and equally good move for Santana. only one bonafide bandbox in the NL East (Philly) versus three launchpads in the AL East…good opportunity to re-establish his value. and, even if Santana earns and accepts a QO, having him on a two-year deal instead of an inflated 4- or 5-year deal is still a win for the Braves.

    (edited for “too early in the morning” typo disease)

    • Nathan Justice 1 year ago

      It’s a one year deal and yes I agree about him being able to handle the NL East better than AL.

      • TimotheusATL 1 year ago

        the “two year deal” comment refers to him potentially accepting a QO next go-around if he earns one from the Braves…sorry for not being more clear. it’s too early in the morning.

  15. Torontopoly 1 year ago

    Braves owe this one to our bush league front office.

  16. Quipex 1 year ago

    Good move for Santana. He has a much better shot at building value for next season by pitching for the Braves than he would if he went to the AL East.

  17. Nathan Justice 1 year ago

    Apparently the Braves have just blown their budget on this signing.

  18. orangeoctober 1 year ago

    after last nights news about medlen probably missing the season, i figured he was probably going to end up in atlanta. good move for braves and prob the best move santana couldve made i suppose. decent money, good team, not in the AL east, and im not sure if turner field is a bandbox but prob not as much as camden yards or rogers centre.

    • Nathan Justice 1 year ago

      Turner is certainly not a band box. I think he is gonna do well there.

  19. Seamaholic 1 year ago

    There you go. Example #500 of why good free agents should never sign QO’s, and never will: They can always get their money.

    • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 1 year ago

      Nelson Cruz would like to talk to you

      • bravo_84 1 year ago

        Steroid infused Free Agents could definitely be the exception to this rule. So could light hitting shortstops, and maybe a no glove DH type. We’ll know more on exceptions B & C in the next couple weeks.

        • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 1 year ago

          If you add enough conditions any statement becomes true. So far I see 1 player who settled for half as much, 2 unsigned players and 1 player who got his money. Thats pretty far from “they can always get their money”

          • bravo_84 1 year ago

            Agreed. I was being facetious.

      • Drew M 1 year ago

        He said “good” free agents.

        • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 1 year ago

          Since 2007, Cruz has average 1.9 fWAR per season and Santana has average 2.0 fWAR. They are equally “good”

    • Teufelshunde4 1 year ago

      Drew and Morales will not get 14 million per. Cruz took a discounted deal. Santana got lucky with ATL having some catastrophic injuries to key pitchers. The one rule that needs to be changed with QO is no one year contract can a team make a QO. Only contracts with two or more years are eligible for QO. That would eliminate teams taking advantage of players who are on one year deals.

      • ubercubsfan 1 year ago

        I wouldn’t mind seeing something like that. But if they did make it a 2 year QO, it better be from average of top 150 or 175 instead of top 125 salaries to bring down the salaries a tad. Teams usually give more years with less per year.

        • kcstengelSr 1 year ago

          I agree more with Teufel because large market teams can throw money around. Look at the current system with the Yankees getting more extra picks last year than anybody and the Red Sox getting more extra picks next year than anybody.
          Actually, a small market team needs to keep some “franchise” fellow more than a large market team, so restrict all teams to one QO player per year maximum and make the two-year-offer in the average of, let’s say, the top 60 players in baseball. If the offer is only some one-year deal, prohibit QOs in consecutive years. Kuroda might be a Yankee forever on one-year QO deals, but small market teams can’t compete with that.

  20. Zak Arn 1 year ago

    He’ll do well – Marlins will be in the bottom tier in BA, Mets are the Mets, and he can throw breaking balls to the Phillies all day long. Only has to face WAS a handful of times.

  21. Mike1L 1 year ago

    Fascinating end-game. Works for everyone (unless you were expecting a 100M contract.) If he’s mediocre, he hits the market again. If he’s solid but not great, he gets the QO and can take it, making close to $30M in two years. If he’s really good, he gets the QO with a rebuilt resume and a better chance at a very large contract. Brave fill the slot for the year, and can make an economic decision next year. And he’s on a real contender, and it’s not clear to me that either Toronto or Baltimore would have an easy time making the playoffs.

    • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 1 year ago

      No team has an easy time making the playoffs and the Braves are far from a postseason lock. The Nats have improved while the Braves have lost Medlen, Hudson and McCann.

      • Tim Creasy 1 year ago

        It will come down to the braves and nats like it has the last two years. Yes the nats got fister so in that regard yes they got better, but, it’s not like the nats don’t have questions also! I would be worried about the offense if I was a nats fans! Look no further than 1st base! And in case you didn’t know, Hudson was lost for about half the year last year, and McCann was on the dl for over a month at the beginning of the year, which is when the braves were playing some of the their best ball.

        • Natsfan89 1 year ago

          Why should we be worried about the offense? Nobody really had a bad year last year (outside of LaRoche who lost 20 something pounds because of his ADD medication). The Nats showed the kind of offense they can have in September. So long as Harper and Ramos stay healthy there’s no reason for Nats fans to be worried.

      • Nathan Justice 1 year ago

        Far from a lock? Hahaha. If I recall all the “brains” of the media last year practically gave the Nats the NL title. See how that worked out?

        • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 1 year ago

          That should tell you something about assuming Atlanta “would have an easy time making the playoffs.” My point was Baltimore has just as realist a shot at making the postseason as Atlanta does.

          • The Mets, Phillies, and Marlins are all improved too. The Nats and the Braves might be the only two serious contenders in the NL East, but the division will be tougher.

          • DK8 1 year ago

            How exactly are the Phillies and Mets improved? No Matt Harvey and no out-of-nowhere good performance from Marlon Byrd for the Mets. The Phillies just got a year older. The Marlins are probably better because it would be hard to be worse.

          • Burnett, Byrd, and a healthy Matt Adams should improve the Phillies even if none of their veterans bounce back.

            Colon and Granderson should make the Mets better as well as a full season of Travis d’Arnaud. Not big on the Chris Young signing.

            Neither one is very good, but they should be better than last year which will make it harder for the Braves to win. Not saying that the Braves won’t do it, but that wins will be more difficult to come by in the NL East.

          • DK8 1 year ago

            Burnett is good. He will help the Phillies.

            Byrd had a career year last year–he helped the Mets and Pirates, but I wouldn’t bet on him to contribute significantly to the Phillies.

            Matt Adams plays for the Cardinals.

            Mike Adams will be lucky to pitch 60 innings, which doesn’t help the Phillies very much, even if he is great.

            Utley, Rollins, Howard, and Ruiz are all a year older and are in their decline phases. Hamels has had arm soreness this spring. The Phillies are not any better than last year by any objective analysis.

          • Fangraphs has them as +12 WAR over last year. Are they not objective?

          • DK8 1 year ago

            That’s from regression to the mean. The models basically say “Those guys can’t be as bad as they were last year.” The reason they say that for 2014, is because the models assume that virtually every player will be replacement level or better. The Phillies had a bunch of guys that generated about negative nine WAR last year between pitching and hitting. If you remove those guys from 2013 and then compare the WAR with 2014, you are within 3 WAR. And I’m pretty sure we can find a bunch of guys on the Phillies who the models are overly optimistic on because the models don’t realize if Utley or Rollins (or various others) go down, the Phillies have zero depth, such that they will be giving significant playing time to guys that are below replacement level. And we know that management is ok with that, because Delmon Young got 291! plate appearances last year.

          • DK8 1 year ago

            The better way to evaluate it would be to compare the projections at this time last year to the projections this year. That would give you a better idea of the change in talent.

          • That doesn’t disprove anything I’ve said.

          • DK8 1 year ago

            Losing Matt Harvey pretty much cancels out any gains the Mets make by the Granderson and Colon additions. There will be no fluky good performance from Marlon Byrd either. The Mets might win more games than last year, but as far as talent? They are no better than last year.

          • If they win more games than last year, they will be a better team. If they are better, it will be harder for the Braves to make the playoffs. That is what I’ve been saying all along.

          • DK8 1 year ago

            The over/under on the Mets is currently 74.5. The Mets won 74 games last year.

            The over/under on the Phillies is 75.5. The Phillies won 73 games last year.

            Sportsbook basically says these teams look the same as they did last year. I agree–it’s nearly a coin flip as to whether those 2 teams can win a combined 147 games next year.

          • DK8 1 year ago

            That is actually not true. That is only true if they win more games against the Braves. The Braves were a combined 21-17 last year against the Mets and Phillies for a .553 winning percentage, which was lower than their winning percentage overall of .593. Most projection systems have the Braves pegged for 86-88 wins and the Phillies and Mets for 74-78 wins. Let’s say the Phillies and Mets both win 78 games for a .481 winning percentage, and the Braves win 86 for a .531 winning percentage. Using Bill James’ formula, we would expect the Braves to be a .549 team against the Mets and Phillies, which translates almost exactly to a 21-17 record.

            So, even if we assume that both the Mets and Phillies are better, and the Braves are worse, we would not expect the Braves to lose more games against those two teams.

          • Ron Loreski 1 year ago

            I’m pretty sure Matt Adams plays for the Cardinals.

          • DK8 1 year ago

            No, Baltimore does not have nearly as good a shot as Atlanta. Atlanta is a bit more talented than Baltimore, and has 3 patsys in their division. Baltimore’s division is far tougher.

        • 2cents 1 year ago

          They got 86 wins after, blew a bunch of late inning games and their best player was injured 2/3 of the season. Wasn’t a particularly bad season, just disappointing for them.

  22. Red_Line_9 1 year ago

    This was the best scenario possible for KC, outside of resigning Santana. He moves to the NL and away from another AL team the Royals might be competing with for a wild card.

    • kcpaul 1 year ago

      Plus, we get a first round pick which wouldn’t have happened with the Blue Jays or Orioles.

      • TheTruth 1 year ago

        …I don’t think you understand how QO’s work. If a player turns it down and signs elsewhere it means the team that signs him forfeits their highest unprotected pick. The team that lost him gets a supplemental pick between the first and second round, not the forfeited one.

        • kcpaul 1 year ago

          We get the 28th best pick of the draft. With 30 teams, almost the same as a late 1st round, but, yes it’s a supplemental.

    • kcstengelSr 1 year ago

      rather have santana with the Braves than facing us as a member of the Tribe, so correct.

      • Red_Line_9 1 year ago

        Or any projected 85-90 win AL team. Orioles and Jays might be alive in the wild card. I still think KC needs a #2 starter.

  23. UltimateYankeeFan 1 year ago

    This signing was pretty much inevitable with the latest injury news to Medlen.

  24. Buddy GO Braves 1 year ago

    Im glad that we got Santana.

  25. Buddy GO Braves 1 year ago

    Santana will do good all the other people on here are just mad because their team didn’t sign him..

  26. jimfetterolf 1 year ago

    Santana and Atlanta, a match made in mutual desperation. Pitching in the NL East will help Santana’s numbers and given the Braves’ pipeline and payroll constraints they may be the least likely team to put a QO on him next year. Fills a glaring hole in Atlanta’s rotation and enhances Santana’s chances for a better deal next year.

  27. Rafael Belliard 1 year ago

    I hate the circumstances that forced us to make this move, but I tip my hat to Wren and Schuerholz for getting it done. Welcome to Atlanta Ervin!

  28. 2cents 1 year ago

    GB pitcher moving to the NL East with one of the best fielding infields behind him… should be interesting. I’m curious what the effect of McCann to Gattis – I don’t know much about either’s defensive metrics but my perception is that McCann was proven decent while Gattis could be more of a wild card

    • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 1 year ago

      Since when is Santana a GB pitcher?

      • Kevin Sheets 1 year ago

        Hes Gb rate has steadily increased but id say he still more of a FB than anything

    • erm016 1 year ago

      Gattis did just fine catching, IMO.

  29. TheTruth 1 year ago

    It was a move I wish the Braves didn’t have to make. I’m hopeful that both Santana and Floyd can put together great seasons and turn down qualifying offers at the end of the year.

  30. scrand 1 year ago

    Why would a mediocre pitcher who wants to boost his numbers want to pitch in the American League (DH) when he could be assured of an easy out every third inning or so….stay in the NL Ervin and look for millions there.

  31. Trent 1 year ago

    Does this
    show a clear sign something wrong with Medlen?

    • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 1 year ago

      No but Medlen spending the past two days preparing himself for a second Tommy John surgery does

  32. Chad Woelk 1 year ago

    He could of just accepted the QO from the Royals and never had to deal with this mess. Now he arrives in camp late and I have a feeling he will end up having a bad year.

    • Oswald did not act alone 1 year ago

      He’ll be pitching against the NL, pitchers and in NL (L)East – Mets, Marlins, & Phillies. They’ll ramp him up slowly and he’ll be fine.

      • Chad Woelk 1 year ago

        If you look at his track record it can make one very nervous. At least it’s on a one year deal though but If I was Atlanta no way would I give up my first round pick for a one year deal.

        • Oswald did not act alone 1 year ago

          ATL has a slew of young talent, and they’re getting a compensation 1st round pick from Yanks for losing McCann. And they get Santana in another “contract year”.
          They had injuries that made this move necessary. I think it was a smart play.

    • Mil8Ball 1 year ago

      Really? Kyle Lohse did pretty darn good last year and signed way later than this…a good week I think. Kyle Lohse also started the Brewers 4th game of the season.

      You have no proof for your opinion.

  33. burnboll 1 year ago

    The best possible move for the Braves. Well played.

    IMO, they had the best off season of any mlb team. Considering their extensions galore and now this move to shore up the rotation.

    If they don’t win the WS, it’s not for not trying.

  34. Brad426 1 year ago

    The number 54 is already taken, Ervin.

Leave a Reply