Email a copy of 'Free Agent Profile: Ervin Santana' to a friend
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By Tim Dierkes | at
Email a copy of 'Free Agent Profile: Ervin Santana' to a friend
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Flash Gordon
“I’m predicting a four-year, $56MM deal this time around. Combined with the 2014 one-year deal, Alou would be able to say he ultimately got Santana five years and $70MM, not far off Steve Adams’ original estimate from last off-season.” Mularkey- Could Alou really say that with a straight face? I think Santana could say he earned that contract by pitching relatively well 2 seasons in a row. I hope it’s a big ballpark for Santana that’s for sure.
martinfv2
Alou could at least make that case.
Flash Gordon
Agents will be agents. “Mularkey” was too strong of language and it wasn’t a shot at the moderator even though I mistakenly made it sound that way. I was thinking of Alou even claiming it after leaving his agency. Sure Alou can claim it and I’m sure it will help him get clients. Still who knows where Santana would be if Medlen’ s elbow never popped at the moment it did. Perception is reality I suppose and if agents are good at anything it’s shaping perception in advance.
Metsfan93
I don’t think predictions work that way. Predicting 5/75 last offseason isn’t the same as predicting 1/14.1, 196 IP of 3.63 SIERA ball to silence some doubters, then 4/56 this year after the market is already set this time around. 5 years @ 15 MM per year last offseason would’ve taken assumptions about how the market would develop. A year later, GMs know more about how the market is going to develop. It’s apples to oranges because Santana still had to pitch on a one-year deal with an uncertain future and prove 2012 was the outlier, not 2013.
That said, I do agree with the 4/50-60 ballpark for Ervin’s new contract, and I also can’t believe if the predicted 56 MM contract comes to pass that Ervin Santana will earn at least 113 MM in MLB salary, unless he retires before the end of the contract or something.
Tko11
Came in for the Pedro Martinez mention but clicked on Edwin Jackson’s stats out of curiosity and now my mind is blown that he was born in Germany.
bobbleheadguru
What is more mind blowing:
1. He was traded (with some others involved) for Max Scherzer.
2. He owns perhaps the least impressive no hitter of all time. Look up the stats for that game.
Erik Trenouth
I think AJ Burnett’s was less impressive. 9 walks, 1 hit batter and 65 strikes to 63 balls. But a no-hitter none-the-less. Which is 1 more walk and 20 fewer pitches than Jackson
RyÅnWKrol
Santana has to be one of the more baffling and sometimes frustrating pitchers to watch. He has ace stuff but has a tendency to give up the long ball. In fact, if you look at his 2012 campaign, which many thought was his worst season, his peripherals were not much different from previous good seasons. But he have up a ton of HR’s that year and it ruined his season. His improvement in 2013 was pretty much about harnessing the long ball. Nice to see his K rate back to where it was during his best season. I say he’s worth the gamble for a team that needs a durable #3 starter to log innings. That’s the one thing Santana has always been able to offer, even if it’s a not so good season.
Cooperbmp
Do you really think there’s a good possibility of the Santana accepting the QO? Could really throw off the Braves offseason financially.
TDKnies
I’m curious to see if the Braves even risk offering it because of the potential financial handcuffing. $15mil for a guy that’s only their 3rd best starter (at best) on an extremely offensively challenged team isn’t great resource allocation. Any idea if you can quickly turn around and trade a guy that accepts a QO?
Up Up and a Hey...for now
Braves did it with Rafael Soriano not too long ago in the Jesse Chavez trade…not sure if the QO rules have changed since that time, but it was at one point doable.
TDKnies
That’s what came to my mind but like you said, the system has changed since then. If they can still trade him if he accepts (albeit for a weaker return because money) then that’s better than nothing.
UK Tiger
Personally i think theres a real chance the Bravos dont give Santana a QO, based on the danger that he was burnt last year by it, leaving a small (yet possible) chance he might take it this year, leaving them paying over $15m for a guy who put up only just a tad more than 1 WAR last year.
If they offer it, he takes it, they definitely handcuff themselves on the offensive spending they need (a point TDKnies already made) and may then have to rely on the trade market to shore up that end.
Ultimately however i agree with the approximate 4/50 guesses, because he is proven, he is durable (last time he started less than 30 games was 2009) and, frankly, hes a better pitcher than Jackson and we know what he got, albeit in a different market.
But yes, i return to my opening line, ive got a real feeling the Braves may NOT go with a QO, something Santana would probably himself approve of.
Another interesting FA case.
tomymogo
I think the QO kills Santana’s market. That combined with what happened last year to him, I think he would take the QO.
In that case Braves would have to trade him which is not a bad idea. He does have trade value at 1 yr 15 mill.
One thing I’m sure of, is that the Braves will not keep him
bobbleheadguru
Tigers lose Scherzer. Price not interested in an extension. Could this be Plan C?
Ausome7
They’re are so many options to fill in that last spot. I could easily see Ervin or Liriano, Masterson or even a trade. Ultimately, worst case scenario they have a competition like in 2012, which wouldn’t be so bad.
bder19
The Braves have never had a super large payroll. If they give Santana a QO, there is a chance he’d take it. Can they afford tying up $15MM in Santana with their arbitration costs going up and not being able to move BJ Upton?