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By Steve Adams | at
Email a copy of 'How Have 2015's Worst Bullpens Improved Thus Far?' to a friend
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bobbleheadguru
I am biased, no doubt, but the Tigers turned a big weakness into a big strength, without a lot of financial or prospect cost.
If they can pick one young arm (like they did with Smyly) and if Rondon can be get on track somewhat, their RP will be very solid.
A'sfaninUK
A big strength? My poor fellow poster, it appears as a Tigers fan you have forgotten what actually-good bullpen looks like anymore! No one blames you, but your bullpen as it currently stands is ROUGH. Please don’t go around calling it a “big strength” – its by the weakest point about the Tigers right now.
All this can change however, there’s still 4 months left.
bobbleheadguru
Look at the THREE Pitchers they got in FIP/WHIP/K per 9 in 2015:
K-Rod: 2.91/0.86/9.8
Lowe: 2.57/1.06/10.0
Wilson: 2.69/1.13/9.7
Name any other team that has brought three innings of production like that in MLB. Their total prospect/dollar cost of those three guys is lower than JUST Kimbrel (who can only pitch one inning most games).
By any measure “on paper”, that bullpen is a strength now.
Los Calcetines Rojos
pretty ignorant there man.. They improved their bullpen big time. not a top 5 bullpen by any means but they added some awesome guys so to ignore that was quite wrong on your end. K-Rod, Lowe, and Wilson will pay major dividends for the Tigers
yanks26
Yankees
bobbleheadguru
Yankees were already excellent. They got whipped cream, nuts and a cherry on their already nice sundae.
The Tigers bullpen on the other hand had all of the appeal of a block of boiled tofu last year.
thecoffinnail
I usually agree with most of your observations and comments Just Another Fan but I think you are wrong calling the Detroit pen “rough”. How K-Rod still manages to put up those numbers amazes me but somehow he does and from watching Wilson many times last year when he was with the Yanks I can tell you they are miles beyond what they were last year. Is their bullpen now a ” big strength”? Absolutely not, but they are definitely middle of the pack and with one more solid addition (Storen would be ideal) they could be top 10. Rough is what I would call the Jays pen.
BoldyMinnesota
you sure about that
Bransonreynolds
I’ll agree they improved for sure. Big strength i think is a stretch. As a royals fan i’ll be sad to see their bullpen improve!
stymeedone
It’s a new cast. Hopefully, it will work out better than past fixes. I’m more impressed that they finally chose to part with with some of the same old, same old, than I am with what they added. Considering what the cost of relief pitching was this off season, Avila made the most out of what he had to work with. I would like to still see a couple more additions. I would not count on Rondon at all.
kingfelix34
The mariners should be in there
MB923
They traded their best reliever though.
Bransonreynolds
and WIlhelmsen
harmony55
The 2015 Seattle bullpen ranked 26th in combined fWAR at 1.1 and is projected by FanGraphs depth charts to post a combined fWAR of 1.8 in 2016:
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&…
fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&t…
Bransonreynolds
So which side are you on?
MB923
Which isn’t that much of an improvement. Projections mean absolutely nothing.
thecoffinnail
Why does someone always bring out WAR and WAR projections? Are real stats really that hard to understand?
Bransonreynolds
But i agree they were one of the worst.
kingfelix34
As one of the worst bullpens not most improved
gobraves46
Red Sox improved the most by far. Kimbrel alone gives them one of the best pens in the game, but the also added Carson Smith who is great, and on the rise. Elias provides good depth either in the back end of the rotation or as a swing-man, and a full season(?) of Koji Uehara is a plus. Also, Heath Hembree looks really good. They have a complete bullpen:
Loogy- Tommy Layne
Swingman-Robbie Ross/Roenis Elias
Middle innings-Heath Hembree/Brandon Workman/Matt Barnes
Set-up guys-Uehara/Junichi Tazawa/Smith
Closer-Craig Kimbrel
*they could also use whoever doesn’t make the starting rotation in the pen. Joe Kelly, Stephen Wright, Brian Johnson, Edwin Escobar, etc.
harmony55
The Red Sox bullpen finished a distant last in fWAR last season with a negative 1.4:
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&…
The projected 120 innings from Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith at a combined 2.7 WAR essentially replaces last year’s 121 innings from Craig Breslow and Alexi Ogando at a negative 1.5 fWAR:
fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&t…
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&…
That’s a significant improvement but not enough to lift the Red Sox bullpen into baseball’s elite.
adyo4552
Well researched harmony55. But keep in mind these mitigating circumstances:
1) Uehara, their best pitcher, was missing for a large chunk of the season. Although re-injury can’t be ruled out, it can’t be assumed either. If he remains healthy, that alone is a big upgrade to their bullpen.
2) Uehara’s absence pushed lesser relievers into higher-leverage situations where they frankly didn’t belong. and caused them to be used more than they should have been (Tazawa in particular was overworked and ill-suited to a closer’s role). The added depth of the bullpen will minimize the chances of these factors recurring next season.
3) The Sox, well out of playoff contention, used many young relievers to get them some experience or showcase them for trades (e.g., Noe Ramirez, Matt Barnes). If the Sox can contend, don’t expect these young guns to get much time on the mound next season.
In sum, injuries and rebuilding-mode attributed to a poor bullpen last season; two factors that will have changed for next season with their added depth and win-now mentality. Kimbrel and Smith are not going to be the only differences to their bullpen performance.
yankeesfan681202
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, Red Sox fans value Koji too much after the 2013 run, he got injured and at 40 years old is not likely to get any better, and even though his 2015 numbers, I have to admit weren’t that bad, they were average at best, I doubt he will repeat his past performances, even 2015 for that matter.
Also, you say that the Red Sox have a win-now mentality after the acquisition of Kimbrel, Smith and the rest of their haul, but I don’t think that’s very accurate, the Red Sox were never in rebuild mode, they always had that win-now mentality, they wanted another worst to first season like in 2013, which was why they signed Sandoval (who could have a bounce back season) and Ramirez (bad contract, already a bust) last season, in the hopes that they could lead the team back to the postseason.
So don’t go and say the Sox were rebuilding and that’s why they had another last place finish, they tried to contend and failed (again), and now they are in better shape with Price (who looks good now but pretty soon the Sox are gonna have their own CC with a 37 year old Price towards the end of that contract (better pray he opts out Sox fans). If not, you just signed a lefty workhorse who strikes 200+ a season (sound familiar?) While also IMO overpaying for Kimbrel, I mean he’s good but that’s too much talent to give up for 3 years of a closer who had a down year in one of the most pitching friendly venues (granted, a down year for Kimbrel means an ERA over 2.00), but who is to say he won’t crack under the media in Boston, with all the pressure after back-to-back last place finishes, all while moving to one of the lesser pitcher-friendly parks in MLB.
Anyway, I’m getting ahead of myself, as a Yankees fan I tend to try and find flaws in moves the Red Sox make, but if I have to be honest, Red Sox definitely improved (hard for a last place team not to improve), and it will be a much more competitive division now. But me being a Yankees fan, I’ll just say, you’ll contend, till the injury bug comes and you can watch it all crumble, (2013 Yankees season).
Anyway, I got sidetracked, don’t overvalue the Sox bullpen just yet, you can do that when you have the best late inning trio in the game (Betances, Miller, Chapman; Murderers’ Throw, The K9 Unit, whichever you prefer)
GO YANKEES!!! Can’t wait for 28 (and may I remind the Sox fans, just cuz, 19 more WS rings that you guys, and you had 5 before we even had 1, think about that for a second, oh, and it won’t take us 86 years to win our next one ✌
Again, GO YANKEES!!!
Los Calcetines Rojos
I would be shocked if Kelly isn’t at least the no.5 starter. With the way its shaping up it is a much improved bullpen but it is back heavy with the set-up guys and obviously Kimbrel. Hope they add a depth piece there because I’d rather Johnson stay a starter than be pushed as a stretch man
MeowMeow
Am I the only Red Sox fan who’s really nervous about Kimbrel? His numbers last year weren’t as good as they had been, and in a more pitcher-friendly park. Plus, he’s never pitched in the AL. Not to say that the Sox haven’t rebounded from disappointing closers (look at 2013), but I’m not counting him as a given to be the shut-down guy in Boston that he was in Atlanta.
andrewc62
I kinda agree, nervous, but confident in a way. However -Andrew Bailey/Joel Hannrahan
stymeedone
Nathan was quite the model of consistency before being acquired by DD. I’d worry too.
adyo4552
Its paranoia more than anything. Kimbrel wont be cursed by the failures of previous closers; there isnt something in the water that drags closers into the mud. Also I think the NL/AL difference is much less significant for relivers than starters. Kimbrel wont be facing any pitchers. If anything it could be an advantage, since the hitters wont be familiar with him, and closers dont need to gameplan based on hitters tendencies the same way a starter does. Gas and a hook, thats the gameplan. The only major obstacle, barring some statistically tiny yet nonzero chance of a garbage year, is that he gets hurt. Thats the real concern to me.
YourDaddy
Don’t be nervous. The Padres pitching staff’s numbers were down for everyone. A very small part of that can be attributed to the lack of defense. A larger portion can be attributed the game calling of Norris.
stymeedone
Even before you threw in the players who failed to make the rotation, I must congratulate you for coming up with the idea for a 10 man bullpen. DD never could build a conventional pen in Detroit, so kudos to out of the box ideas.
kingfelix34
This doesn’t really have much to do with what you said, but Elias will really surprise you as a starter.
bobbleheadguru
How did the Red Sox “improve the most by far”?
The Tigers got THREE guys that were interchangeable statistically with Kimbrel. THREE.
And the Tigers were a lot worse that the Red Sox.
stymeedone
Kimbrel is one of the two most dominant relief pitchers in Baseball. Chapman being the other. Who would you rather have pitching the ninth, Kimbrel or K-Rod? Smith was used in the closers role for Seattle. Justin Wilson was set up for NYY. Lowe had a good year in “15, but his performance prior, was not quite as good. ON PAPER, there are some comparisons, but the players Boston acquired were used in higher leverage situations and still provided similar (if not better) results. I am a Tigers fan, but have to give Dave his due, even in Boston. I don’t think anyone believes the Tigers gave up too much for K-Rod. There are lots of Boston fans that think they gave up too much for Kimbrel. I will settle for that victory.
bobbleheadguru
A closer typically pitches one inning.
The Tigers got THREE guys to cover 1/3rd of the game.
Even if they are not quite as good as Kimbrel, they will collectively cover 3x the innings and replace really bad relievers on the roster.
My point is that the incremental improvement for the Tigers is much greater than that of the Red Sox.
YourDaddy
When talking about the worst bullpens of 2015, don’t forget the Padres. They were 13th in the NL before trading away Kimbrel, Benoit and Rzepczynski, losing Kelley to FA and Mateo and Jacskon to Japan, and DFA Garces and Thayer. They have replaced those 6 with Rule 5 draft picks, Baumann and Pomeranz. All in all the Padres have lost 269 or the 495 relief inning the bullpen pitched in 2015. The guys that are gone accounted for a 3.12 ERA on a bullpen that had a 4.02 ERA on the season. As of today they are by far the worst in the NL.
Bransonreynolds
This is only for the worst bullpens that have made improvements
cbwalradth
I disagree, the Reds just traded chapman and have no one at all! Reds have by far the worst TEAM I’ve seen on paper in the last 15 years…
greatd
They needed quality not quantity out of the Chapman deal which they failed to do.
Bransonreynolds
Has any bullpen been as bad as the ’06 royals? first in IP, last in ERA with a 5.40 and last in BAA with like a .281
jakegreenberg24
Reds are clearly taking Cubs stance on rebuilding. Only it is underrated that many of the Cubs top prospects in their rebuild were huge busts (Josh Vitters, Brett Jackson, etc.)
stymeedone
That was a different rebuild. The cubs have a long history of them.
Omarj
I like what the Tigers did. They didn’t give up much and their pen has a ton of upside. Give Detroit more credit. I’m concerned with Boston as previous closers have had tough ones adapt, but I also note that the Padres defense was subpar especially in a pitchers park.
yankeesfan681202
If I were a Sox fan I’d be more concerned with the starting rotation behind David Price, they traded away Miley, who led the team in ERA (4.46), Buch can be dominant but can’t stay healthy, sort of like Pineda, and then there are even more question marks there than there are with the Yankees, then only difference is David Price, who made a horrible rotation filled with #4/5 starters a formidable rotation, for the time being, since he is a true ace and workhorse.
redsox2323
The rotation goes
1 price
2. E-rod
3. Bucholtz
4. Porcello
5. Kelley/owens/johnson
Im not worried at all you might say that porcello was a bust but come on now when he was with the tigers and pitched really good he was behind verlander and sherzer and maybe even behind sanchez as a number 4 starter and in his 1 year in boston he was a 2 for most of the season
You cant expect a young starter to perform high in his first year in a place like boston once he becomes a 4 behind a solid starting 3 he will perform good
Kelley pitched good down the stretch but i have confidence that Owens will have a break out year and become a star
yankeesfan681202
Porcello may have a bounce back as you say, but that’s a lot of pressure you are putting on 2 young arms, to not only pitch and expect them to be a top of the rotation starter when the games mean more to the Red Sox, you don’t know how they will handle the pressure, and the increase in workload, plus their sample sizes were roughly 10-20 starts and they weren’t that effective, some outings were good, some of them not so good, but you are expecting them to improve a lot, from an ERA around the high 4’s to go to the low 3’s maybe high 2’s, is a lot to ask from 2 young arms who haven’t proved they can pitch effectively.
I know that every fan grows attached to their farm system and believe that their prospects are the ones that will breakout, but at this point Price is the only reliable starter.
redsox2323
1.price
2.e-rod
3.bucholtz
4.porcello
5.kelley/owens/johnson
Porcello was behing verlander sanchez and sherzer in detroit dont expect him to be great last year as a 2 i expect him to have a great year set way back as a 4
Kelley pitched good down the stretch but i have faith that owens will have a breat out year i saw him down in tripple a he was dominant he will be good
yankeesfan681202
Pitchers can be dominant in AAA but that doesn’t always translate to the big leagues, and when Owens was up in the Majors he didn’t pitch quite well, along with E-Rod with both of them combined pitching a season’s worth of starts that didn’t look too promising.
rhiatt
I LOVE my Tigers but our lineup and S/P is weaker. Zim vs price.#4 is a joke and no #5 yet.the tier 2, 30 y.o. relief picks will burn out in Aug. no bat to replace Cespedes. No Raburn. We already have Aviles. Maybin and Davis a wash. AA better learn his ABC’s of building a team or is he keeping it a secret. I still LOVE and support my Tigers. See you at tigerfest!!!