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Arbitration Eligibles

Arbitration Eligibles: Toronto Blue Jays

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We've covered the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays in our arbitration eligibles series.  Let's finish off the AL East by discussing the Blue Jays players who will be eligible for arbitration after the season.

Carlson and McGowan are non-tender candidates, though on the other hand neither would cost much more than the league minimum.  Carlson's season ended with a torn rotator cuff, while McGowan is expected to pitch for Toronto next month for the first time since 2008.

Overall it's an affordable arbitration group.  We've got Morrow at $4.1MM, Rasmus at $2.8MM, Villanueva at $2MM, Janssen at $1.5MM, and Litsch at $1.3MM.  Rasmus switched agencies partially because of this upcoming arbitration case.

Arbitration Eligibles: Tampa Bay Rays

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We've covered the Orioles, Red Sox, and Yankees; now it's time to look at Rays players who will be arbitration eligible after the season.

Sonnanstine and Howell are potential non-tender candidates, as both have had rough years.  Sonnanstine is currently at Triple-A.

Price and Upton will be a relatively expensive pair.  Price, an expected Super Two player, comes with a projected $5.9MM salary that would be a first-time starter record if we didn't expect Clayton Kershaw to do even better.  Price's days as cheap ace are ending.  Upton, a trade candidate, projects in the $7MM range.

Niemann and Peralta are worth retaining as well.  Niemann is looking at a first-time salary in the $2.7MM range, while Peralta could come in at a still-affordable $1.8MM.

Arbitration Eligibles: New York Yankees

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We've looked at the Orioles and Red Sox so far; now let's look at the Yankees players who will be arbitration eligible after the season.

I expect all six players to be tendered a contract.  Robertson, Logan, and Chamberlain should all come in under $2MM.  Gardner looks to be in the $2.4-3.3MM range for his first time through; a stolen base title would put him toward the higher end of that range.  Hughes will get a mild raise, perhaps to $3.4MM or so.  We have Martin around $5.2MM, though his is a little tricky to determine because he's coming from a free agent salary.

Arbitration Eligibles: Boston Red Sox

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We looked at the Orioles yesterday; now it's time to discuss Red Sox players who will be eligible for arbitration after the season.

Aceves and Bard seem likely to be arbitration eligible as Super Two players.  My non-tender candidates are Miller, Aviles, and Hill.  Miller projects to an arbitration salary around $1.7MM; I'm not sure how his club option compares to that.  Aviles hasn't done much with Boston, and I'm not sure whether they value him around $1.5MM.  Hill, who had Tommy John surgery in June, is probably someone the Sox could non-tender and then re-sign to a minor league deal.

Ellsbury is easily the team's biggest case.  His MVP-caliber campaign, coupled with his stolen base tally, could result in a salary over $6MM by our calculations.  That'd exceed even Hunter Pence's second-time raise won through a hearing last year.  The Boras Corporation probably won't be shy about trying to set a new precedent.  Most of the team's other arbitration eligibles project to make less than $2MM.

Arbitration Eligibles: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles kick off our series taking a look at players who will be arbitration eligible for 2012.

Projected potential Super Twos such as Bergesen and Simon may not end up with enough service time to be arbitration eligible.  If the projected 2.145 cutoff holds up, Bergesen will be arbitration eligible and Simon will not.

Scott had shoulder surgery in July and is a likely non-tender.  Pie is possible given his terrible offensive season, as are potential first-timers Eyre, Reyes, and Bergesen.  Accardo is another non-tender candidate.

The key cases for the Orioles are Jones, Guthrie, and Johnson.  Jones should exceed $6MM.  Guthrie is in lightly charted waters as a third-time starting pitcher, and the cases of 2012 peers like John Danks, Matt Garza, and Joe Saunders will be relevant here.  $9-10MM is possible.  Johnson will be coming off a solid season, but still figures to come in under $2MM.

Arbitration Eligibles Series

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Players with at least two years and 125 days but less than six years of Major League service time are arbitration eligible.  A player usually goes to arbitration three times in his career, though those classified as Super Two go four times. 

On December 2nd, each team will decide whether to tender contracts to their arbitration eligible players.  Those who are non-tendered become free agents.  Players who are tendered contracts are automatically under team control for 2011 at a yet to be determined salary.  Many players will reach an agreement before exchanging salary figures, which is formally done in mid-January.  Others will exchange figures and meet somewhere in the middle.  A handful of players will fail to reach an agreement with the team, resulting in an arbitration hearing in February.  In an arbitration hearing, an independent three-person panel hears cases from both sides and picks which of the two salary submissions they find appropriate.

MLBTR's arbitration eligibles series examines all 30 teams; links are below.  By our count there are 227 arbitration eligible players.  Click here to download an Excel spreadsheet listing all of them.  The Blue Jays lead with 14; the Cardinals trail with two.  Our speculative non-tender candidate list will come later, but that group should contain around 90 players.

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Arbitration Eligibles: San Francisco Giants

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Giants fans aren't thinking about the offseason right now, but let's finish off our arbitration eligibles series.

Torres hasn't done much in the postseason, but the 31-year-old's impressive regular season work will get him a contract.  His salary will remain low, as he hasn't piled up big career numbers.

Had Ross remained with the Marlins, he probably would have been non-tendered this winter.  He's already earning $4.45MM and his power slipped in 487 Marlins plate appearances this year.  The Giants snagged Ross as a waiver claim in late August.  His performance picked up with his new team, and he even won NLCS MVP.  About a week ago, Giants GM Brian Sabean implied that he will tender a contract to Ross.

Ramirez, another midseason pickup, allowed only two earned runs in 27 innings for the Giants despite unimpressive peripherals.  He'll likely be retained.  Lopez, who came over from the Pirates, actually does have the peripheral stats to support his strong Giants ERA.  He's been a postseason force and should be tendered.  Ray is a borderline case – he'll remain affordable, but his performance this year was only passable.  Yet another acquisition, Fontenot, has been a useful backup infielder even if his '08 slugging percentage appears to have been a fluke.  He'll probably stick around.

Casilla represents one of the year's better minor league deals, as he compiled a 1.95 ERA and 9.1 K/9 in 55.3 innings.  He's staying.  Sanchez is a lock to be tendered, and is in line for a multimillion dollar raise following a 13 win, 205 strikeout breakout campaign.  He doesn't have the career numbers to get the $6MM salary other second-time arbitration eligible starters such as Jered Weaver, Matt Garza, John Danks, and Chad Billingsley will make.

It's possible the Giants will tender contracts to all eight of their arbitration eligible players, though contracts for Ray and Fontenot are less certain.

Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres

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The Padres are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Denorfia, Mujica, Stauffer, Adams, and Bell are highly likely to be tendered contracts.  Adams and Bell should get noticeable raises, with the latter in line for a salary in the $7MM range.  Bell hopes for a three-year deal, though a trade can't be ruled out given the Padres' strong bullpen.  Ludwick disappointed after coming over in a deadline day trade, hitting .211/.301/.330 in 239 Padres PAs.  Still, it appears he'll be tendered a contract.

Gwynn and Hairston are non-tender candidates.  Gwynn hit .204/.304/.287 in 339 plate appearances, missing time due to wrist surgery.  Ludwick staying would increase the chances of Hairston going; last month 69% of you predicted a non-tender for Hairston.

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Billingsley and Kuo will certainly be tendered contracts this offseason.  Billingsley trimmed walks, home runs, and ERA this year and is operating from a strong first-time salary of $3.85MM.  Agents will be rooting for second-timers Billingsley, Jered Weaver, Matt Garza, Joe Saunders, John Danks, and Jeremy Guthrie to jump to the $6MM range and raise the bar for others.  Kuo has a strong case as well, with a fantastic, healthy platform year in which he took over at closer.

Loney, Martin, Theriot and Sherrill form an interesting group of non-tender candidates for the Dodgers.  We discussed Loney's case a week ago; about 82% of you expect him to be tendered a contract.  A trade is more likely than a non-tender.  Martin is in a similar situation - ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted last month that "the perception among rival GMs is that he will have some (but not great) trade value."  It doesn't help that Martin is coming off a broken hip.  For a look at the trade market for catchers, click here.

MLBTR's Mike Axisa looked at Theriot's case on September 4th, at which point 42% of you predicted he'll be cut loose.  Looking at Theriot's numbers since then, a non-tender is even more likely.  Sherrill is a lock to be let go after his tough year.  He was placed on outright waivers in July and cleared.

Arbitration Eligibles: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

The Rockies have two non-tender candidates: Delcarmen and Barmes.  They have to decide if Delcarmen is worth a $1MM+ gamble for 2011 after his struggles in 2009-10.  The righty dealt with a forearm strain prior to his August 31st trade from Boston.  Barmes, operating from a $3.325MM salary this year, is almost certain to be cut loose.  He'll improve the free agent market for second basemen, though he'd like to return to the Rockies if he can't find an everyday job.

Stewart's playing time was limited this year due to an oblique injury and the occasional benching against a lefty.  He won't be too expensive, and will be retained.  Hammel had a solid year, better than his 4.81 ERA suggests.  He'll still provide value in 2011.  The Rockies' decision to tender Belisle a contract last winter paid off, as he led MLB with 92 relief innings.  Belisle posted a 2.93 ERA with strong peripherals, and the Rockies will be glad to have him back.

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