By Tim Dierkes | at
Must read:
Wow. Bonds sounds like a chemistry experiment. Could the publicity surrounding this drive him into retirement?
Interestingly, ESPN and Fox Sports haven’t picked up on this, probably because they don’t want to drive traffic to SportsIllustrated. C’mon guys, you can’t ignore this for much longer. Even MLB.com still hasn’t mentioned the story.
UPDATE: Now that the major outlets have begun discussing the new evidence, we should make a tally of how many times the word "damning" is used.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Rangers’ starting rotation currently consists of Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton, Vicente Padilla, Kameron Loe, and Juan Dominguez. Guys like C.J. Wilson, John Wasdin, and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey could enter the picture as well.
The front three, while health risks, are fairly solid. I know the Rangers are enamored of Loe following his 3.42 ERA in 92 innings last year. But the lack of Ks and abnormally low accompanying hit rate spell darker days ahead. Still, if Loe can keep his ERA in the low 4s the Rangers would be ecstatic. So he’s not a problem.
Dominguez just needs to keep his ERA under 5 to maintain the fifth starter spot. I think he’s capable of that. Still, if he or Loe flames out or one of the front three gets injured, the Rangers would hate to turn to Wilson, Wasdin, or Dickey again. I think it’s highly likely that they’ll need to get a lot of starts out of someone not in the current front five.
The safe bet: acquire another veteran starter and use Dominguez in a swing role. The Rangers have several options here that could be helpful.
According to this morning’s Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Texas is interested in reacquiring John Thomson. Thomson is a control pitcher who’s been about league average in preventing the longball. He ate 217 innings for the Rangers in 2003 while posting a 4.85 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. The 32 year-old makes $4.75MM and is in his contract year. The Braves are considering moving him and putting Kyle Davies into the rotation. In 2005, Thomson missed several months after tearing a tendon in his middle finger.
Then there’s Jason Marquis, also an impending free agent. He can probably provide 200 innings of a 4.50 ERA, which means a lot in Texas. Swapping Kevin Mench for Marquis could make some sense.
Other than those two, there’s the pie-in-the-sky idea of luring Roger Clemens. Seems quite unlikely but would obviously be ideal. Jose Contreras, Erik Bedard, Matt Clement, and Bronson Arroyo are on the market for the right price. And though it’s a slim chance, if there’s one team for which Kerry Wood might waive his no-trade clause in July, it’s probably the Rangers.
By Tim Dierkes | at
More and more, it’s looking like the Reds will deal one of their outfielders before the season begins. First off, Jon Heyman’s column from yesterday:
"Now that Scott Hatteberg has been signed for first base, the Reds might shop that extra outfielder they’ve been carrying for a while. They have Adam Dunn, Wily Mo Peña, Austin Kearns and Ken Griffey Jr., with Peña most likely to go for young pitching. Previous owner Carl Lindner rejected deals for Griffey (including one with the Cubs last year), but maybe new owner Rob Castellini will do the right thing."
I must say, I hadn’t heard about that Cubs/Griffey offer before now. Griffey to the White Sox, yes. Anyway, Will Carroll also got in on the act today:
"Adam Dunn in left field? Who’s headed out of Cincinnati?"
I agree with Heyman – Wily Mo seems most likely to go. But we should start with the Reds when figuring this one out. The Reds need pitching. Surprisingly, their rotation is actually already five-deep if Paul Wilson is able to take the hill. The Reds won’t put a timetable on his return.
Possible matches: Boston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Anaheim, Florida, and Los Angeles. OK, that didn’t exactly narrow it down. But all these teams could use an outfielder and could probably come up with a youngster to get it done.
By Tim Dierkes | at
On a slow trade rumor day, I figured it would be fun to take a good look at Nick Johnson. Johnson will be a free agent after the 2006 season, and his name was previously bandied about in a trade rumor involving the Red Sox. However, Nationals GM Jim Bowden has expressed a desire to re-sign his oft-injured first baseman.
Johnson is entering his age 28 season. Last year he set a professional career high in at-bats, with 453. He hit .289/.408/.479 with an extreme pitchers’ park as his home stadium. His OBP was ninth in baseball. Given his playing time and relatively mediocre slugging percentage, you might think Johnson isn’t a top ten 1B. Baseball Prospectus says think again – including defense, they ranked him as baseball’s 6th best first baseman by WARP in 2005. That’s ahead of players like Carlos Delgado and Richie Sexson.
According to Will Carroll, Johnson was sidelined by a bone bruise in his heel in 2005. Unlike his previous back problems, the bruise isn’t expected to bother him in 2006. This is Johnson’s time to shine before he hits free agency. My hunch is that the Nationals will re-sign him to a one or two year contract worth maybe $7MM annually. It doesn’t seem like a team would commit more than two years to a player who’s never healthy. In addition to the Red Sox, the Devil Rays have expressed interest in Johnson in the past. Don’t be surprised if the Indians and Giants make a play for him this summer as well.
Projection wise, PECOTA thinks Johnson will hit .265/.385/.436 this season and be worth a little more than four wins. ZiPS expects more: .283/.402/.475. Ron Shandler projects .279/.385/.467. My projection is a .284 average with 20 HR and 66 RBIs in 412 ABs. For you concerned fantasy geeks out there, Johnson whiffs a tad too much to hit in the .290s. I doubt his employer cares about that in real life though.
It’s conceivable that Johnson could turn himself into a $10MM player with a single fully healthy season, taking a page from J.D. Drew. He was worth a lot more than that in 2005, and should be a hot commodity at the deadline. Problem is, the Nats don’t have anyone in the system to replace him.
By Tim Dierkes | at
You can’t help but be a little skeptical that the Cardinals plan to go with Larry Bigbie and So Taguchi as their left fielder all year long. Bigbie’s had a few tolerable years in ’03-’04, but let’s face it: he’s basically Todd Hollandsworth. You want him coming off the bench. Taguchi is in his mid-30s and certainly won’t manage league average production for a left fielder. Not to mention he’ll be needed to back up Jim Edmonds for a signficant amount of time. And third-stringer John Rodriguez may be on the outs.
I did what I always do when I want to dissect the Cardinals – I talked to Larry of Viva El Birdos. Most of the following is culled directly from Larry, who has his finger on the pulse of the team.
About a week ago, Cardinals’ beat writer Matt Leach opined that by the time the playoffs roll around, an impact bat or at least someone else will be starting in left field. According to Larry, other journalists covering the team are on the same page.
I threw out five guys that I thought could fit the bill: Luis Gonzalez, Carlos Lee, Kevin Mench, Ryan Church, and Jay Payton.
Larry considered Mench the frontrunner, saying, "Mench could come over during Spring Training; I
have this feeling a Mench-for-Marquis trade has been sitting there, shrink-wrapped and ready to be run through the bar-code reader, for two or three months. If the Cards decide in the next 2-3 weeks that Ponson-Reyes-Wainwright can cover them, they’ll pull the trigger."
I agree entirely. It’d be a deal that would help both teams, and Jason Botts could probably approximate Mench’s numbers for the Rangers. Botts’s 2005 season in Triple A was roughly the equivalent of a .252/.315/.444 line in the Majors. I have a lot of faith in Reyes, so the only wild card would be Ponson in the fifth spot.
On Gonzo, Larry said: "If they add Gonzalez, it won’t be until mid-season due to his large 2006 salary." That’d be $11.5MM, and don’t forget that Luis has trade veto power. My hunch is that he’d be willing to come to St. Louis if the D’Backs aren’t contending. A very solid candidate to be acquired by the Cards.
Larry rightfully dismissed Payton, Lee, and Church. The Cards don’t really have anything the A’s need for Payton; Lee presents a division rival trade, something that Jocketty hasn’t done for quite some time (perhaps dating back to Fernando Vina). He said that the front office may not see Church as a major improvement over what they have, though we both agree that he would be. Jose Guillen’s current status doesn’t look too bad, but the Nats will still have a strong need for Church unless Soriano moves to center field.
To throw one more name into the mix, Cardinals Diaspora was researching a possible Craig Wilson trade. In a nutshell, Ryan says that while Wilson seems like a good fit, the Cards may be looking for a lefty and the Pirates may prefer to deal Sean Casey at the deadline. Good read.
There you have it. Granted this is all just educated speculation, but we did unearth the Cards’ interest in A.J. Burnett the last time we put our blogs/heads together.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Alright, here’s a new one. I can’t really verify the source, but it still seems ripe for discussion.
Word is that the Mets could send Xavier Nady, John Maine, and Jeff Keppinger to the Nationals for Alfonso Soriano, Bill Bray, and Jason Bergmann. Let’s discuss.
Could the Mets do without Nady? Absolutely. Wright doesn’t need much time off, and Franco can spell Delgado. I’m of the opinion that Victor Diaz does not need a platoon partner in right field. Nady would be more useful for Washington. He could handle right field for three months while Jose Guillen is out, and Matt LeCroy could spend more time backing up Brian Schneider than Nick Johnson. Plus, Nady could take over first base in 2007 if Johnson leaves via free agency.
I’m not sure that John Maine figures into the Mets’ rotation plans. He didn’t make their depth chart, which goes eight-deep on starting pitchers. Maine already has Triple A experience and could probably manage a mid-4 ERA pitching half his games in RFK. That’d be a more adequate replacement for Brian Lawrence than some sort of Drese/Rauch experiment.
Jeff Keppinger has most certainly been passed by Anderson Hernandez on the Mets’ 2B depth chart, and so the Mets wouldn’t really need him even if they let Soriano walk after 2006. Keppinger is probably best served as a utility man anyway, and he’d get a decent opportunity backing up Jose Vidro. Brendan Harris might already fill this role for the Nats, but he’s no sure thing.
To recap: the Nationals would receive a borderline backup in Nady, a back-rotation starter in Maine, and a utility infielder in Keppinger. It’s quantity over quality, but Bowden is between a rock and a hard place here with Soriano.
Speaking of which, Soriano would fit nicely into the Latino core Omar Minaya is building. I don’t know whether the Mets would try to keep him long-term, but even a player with his flaws is a good pickup for the cost outlined here.
College product Bill Bray isn’t too far off from being a Major League setup man. I’m not so sure Bowden would need to give him up in this deal. It seems to tip the scales too far towards the Mets.
Likewise with Bergmann, who had a nice year last year and figured to slot into the Nats’ big league bullpen. That’s two valuable relievers going to New York, and it seems like too much.
Admittedly the Nationals are giving up a lot of value for some questionable prospects. On the other hand, Bowden’s trade for Soriano is Exhibit A that he is capable of making trades that do not favor the his team at all.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Looks like Kerry Wood will have minor arthroscopic knee surgery. Chicago radio station The Score speculates that it could put him back another couple of weeks. Wood apparently threw this morning, so the need may have popped up today.
It seems that a June return to the Majors may be Wood’s new target.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Will Carroll’s report about possible shoulder problems for Mark Prior raised quite a hubbub around the Chicago area, perhaps approaching the level of a ruckus at one point. Will was kind enough to answer every question I could think of on the topic.
MLBTradeRumors: Why isn’t Prior on the same course as the Cubs’ healthy pitchers? Can a December illness really set a pitcher back like this?
Will Carroll: Good question and one I don’t have a good answer to. Prior almost certainly was sick and almost certainly had some effect. We don’t know how serious — ER sick is a pretty broad range — but given that Mark is a young, healthy, well-conditioned athlete, you’d think he could bounce back. Most pitchers don’t do much in December anyway; there was an article, I think by Jayson Stark, that talked about a pitcher picking up the ball in early January.
Every pitcher’s different. Back in 2003 when we were working on Saving The Pitcher, Mark was throwing in December, but if I recall correctly, Christian Ruzich (of Cub Reporter and the photographer for that session) said it was a long toss session.
MLBTR: Has there been any interaction between you and Prior/Baker/Cubs front office since the big media blowup about his shoulder? If so, how’d it go?
WC: Yes, but it was a private conversation. Some were dismissive, some were angry, some just nodded and went on with life.
MLBTR: Do you think the "weak and sick" look could be related to Prior’s December illness? [whoops, I asked this twice.]
WC: Again, it’s possible, but you’d think a young, healthy, well-conditioned athlete like Prior would bounce back more quickly. I’m not a stalker so I don’t know exactly what Mark was doing, but we do know a couple things — 1) there were no reports of anything this winter. That’s normal, we don’t hear a lot about lots of players. Prior’s offseason was — well, I don’t know. He could have sat in his house, gone to Aruba, or spent the winter throwing in his back yard. The Cubs know, but we don’t.
All that we *know* changed is that he didn’t work with Tom House and I didn’t even know that until he mentioned it during an interview Friday. 2) I know, for a fact, that a major Chicago writer agrees with me. In fact, he was the source for "sick and weak."
MLBTR: The closest thing to a thumbs up from Prior that I’ve found in the media is him telling George Ofman his shoulder is OK and without discomfort. Has Prior blatantly said to anyone that his shoulder and elbow are completely 100% healthy?
WC: Not that I’m aware of.
MLBTR: Based on this incident, the Achilles thing last year [whoops, two years ago], and tons of missed timetables would you agree that the Cubs have been less than forthright about pitching injuries? Is this simply to withold injury info from other baseball teams a la Oakland, or do the Cubs have some other motivation?
WC: That’s correct, but this isn’t something we can blame on the Cubs solely. You mentioned the A’s, but it’s every team. There’s a grand total of one team that’s always been open and honest about every single request I’ve made. I think that’s mostly because that team isn’t very good. The Cubs have done a very poor job of managing information, odd since they’re owned by the very media company that provides a great deal of their coverage.
MLBTR: Which members of the Chicago media contacted you about your report? I know you’ve spoken on the Score and with Teddy Greenstein; anyone else?
WC: Easier to say who didn’t — no one from the Sun-Times or ESPN 1000 contacted me.
MLBTR: Has the majority of the Chicago media treated you well other than Paul Sullivan’s shot? You mentioned that you don’t think there’s any "ink vs. Internet" divide.
WC: Yes. You know, it’s funny — I only spoke to Teddy Greenstein because a few years ago, the first time I was in the Cubs clubhouse, Teddy was nice to me. He pointed out who was a good interview, introduced me to a couple people, knew where the bathroom was. He misquoted me, but that’s more my choice of wording than anything else. Heck, here’s the email:
From Will to Teddy Greenstein, 2/22: "Teddy — I went back through my emails and realized why the Achilles stuff isn’t on the site until after it was publicly announced: I didn’t run it. The source, at that time, was unknown to me. Sorry for the confusion; blame my failing memory."
As you can see there, I said I didn’t run the information from the source because I didn’t know how accurate the information was until proven true, not that I didn’t know the source. It existed, it was accurate, and in fact, I’d think my reluctance to use it without proof of accuracy speaks pretty well to my standards.
Ink vs pixels? As false as stats vs scouts. I read all the reports – Kiley, Rogers, Greenstein, Miles, Muskat, DeLuca, the guy from Gary – on the internet.
MLBTR: Has your source given you anything new on Prior since the injury report? Has that source scooped anything besides Prior’s Achilles issue from last year? Can you give us anything about your source’s relation to Prior and/or the Cubs? (I had to try).
WC: No. Yes (and it was two years ago). Nice try.
MLBTR: There have been whispers of a need for TJ surgery in Prior’s past, which were squelched. Would you take the elbow inflammation and reduced control in recent years as warning signs for a future TJ?
WC: Those rumors were pretty spurious, if I remember correctly. They came out of New York — Larry Rocca — and were shot down. The Cubs reacted to that by laughing it off. Reduced control? I don’t see that in the stat line and given Mark’s traumatic elbow injury last year, I think we could forgive him a little wildness in the second half.
By Tim Dierkes | at
I hate to keep plucking info from ESPN, but I can’t ignore some good stuff from Peter Gammons’s blog this morning. Gammons quotes Billy Beane as saying this about Barry Zito:
"I have not had one call on Barry, nor have I made any inquiring about interest."
I find it hard to believe that Omar Minaya and Jim Hendry didn’t do so much as place a single phone call about Zito’s availability. Were a dozen different sources misinformed about Zito trade rumors, or is Beane using Gammons to transmit a message? We know Beane rarely talks to reporters other than Gammons. The two have a quid pro quo type of relationship, according to Moneyball.
Gammons also mentions that MLB may already have a plan in place to contract four teams. In addition, the Joey Gathright for Scott Olsen trade is still under consideration. A no-brainer for the D-Rays in my opinion.
By Tim Dierkes | at
ESPN’s Buster Olney has the scoop on Zack Greinke’s mysterious departure from spring training. Sounds to me like he doesn’t like his bosses and has perhaps lost the desire to play baseball:
"Talked to several folks in baseball yesterday about Zack Greinke’s departure from Kansas City’s camp. Greinke, according to these sources, was going through some drills halfheartedly last week, and K.C. manager Buddy Bell got on him, pushing him to improve his effort; Greinke, displeased, later met with Bell. And then, a couple of days later, he packed up and walked out of camp.
According to one source, Greinke indicated that he felt the team’s new pitching coach had nothing to offer him. Greinke’s discontent was felt last year, as well, when he repeatedly indicated to others that he was fed up with the way his baseball career was going. He told others he was ready to walk away."
This blog posting kind of implies that Greinke was considering walking away sometime during 2005, but it’s news to me either way. According to Olney, this wouldn’t be unprecedented:
"This reminded me of a former Mets prospect, Ryan Jaroncyk, who simply decided he didn’t enjoy baseball that much."
Jaroncyk, a shortstop, was selected 18th overall by the Mets in 1995 and didn’t make it past A ball. Jaroncyk never actually liked baseball (he actually grew to hate it), and was playing for the sake of his father. I hate it when parents force stuff on their kids. Word is that Jaroncyk threw his equipment in a dumpster and walked out for good.
Michael Barrett was the only useful Major Leaguer taken after Jaroncyk in the first round (although Roy Halladay was selected 17th by the Jays). Interestingly, Carlos Beltran was taken 49th overall that year by the Royals, directly after the Mets grabbed the immortal Brett Herbison with their second pick.
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