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Archives for February 2008

Baseball Prospectus Projects The Standings

By Tim Dierkes | February 16, 2008 at 10:38am CDT

Always interesting when Baseball Prospectus uses their PECOTA system to project the standings.  Click here to take a look, and consider subscribing if you haven’t.

PECOTA sees the Yankees winning the AL East and the Angels taking the AL West.  They have the Indians and Tigers playing a tiebreaker for the AL Central and the Red Sox as the league’s wild card entry.

As for the NL, the Mets take the East.  The Cubs win the Central, while the D’Backs and Dodgers tie for the West.  The wild card would be the Brewers.  BP’s Nate Silver discusses the standings a bit more here.

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Baseball Prospectus

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Baseball Prospectus Projects The Standings

By Tim Dierkes | February 16, 2008 at 10:08am CDT

Always interesting when Baseball Prospectus uses their PECOTA system to project the standings.  Click here to take a look, and consider subscribing if you haven’t.

PECOTA sees the Yankees winning the AL East and the Angels taking the AL West.  They have the Indians and Tigers playing a tiebreaker for the AL Central and the Red Sox as the league’s wild card entry.

As for the NL, the Mets take the East.  The Cubs win the Central, while the D’Backs and Dodgers tie for the West.  The wild card would be the Brewers.  BP’s Nate Silver discusses the standings a bit more here.

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Jim Bowden Trade Profile (Reds)

By Tim Dierkes | February 15, 2008 at 2:36pm CDT

If James Gordon Bowden III knows how to do anything, it’s working under circumstances that would make most people run, screaming, for the door. From the time the mercurial Marge Schott hired him to run the Cincinnati Reds to the start of his current term as GM of the orphaned Washington Nationals, he has been able to remain focused on wheeling and dealing.

We’ll split Bowden’s tenures with the two teams into separate posts, starting today with his Cincinnati tenure.  Download reds_trades_under_bowden_iii.xls here –  a spreadsheet listing all of Bowden’s trades as the Reds’ GM.

For a guy who eventually earned the nickname “Trader Jim,” Bowden’s career as a trafficker in baseball players began inauspiciously. His first deal after taking over the Reds in 1992 sent outfielder Paul O’Neill to the Yankees. O’Neill, a key member of Cincy’s 1990 World Series champions, went on to become the heart and soul of the end-of-the-century Yankees’ dynasty.

Bowden was only 31 years old when Schott hired him. At the time, he was the youngest general manager in Major League history. Perhaps his inexperience provided a built-in alibi for the swap, which sent O’Neill and a minor-leaguer to New York for the eminently forgettable Roberto Kelly.

If Bowden’s first deal was a disaster – try to find a Reds fan who doesn’t think it was – it didn’t stop him from making 100 other trades in his 10½ years at the Cincinnati helm.

Former Mets GM Steve Phillips once told Tim Kurkjian of ESPN: The Magazine, “Jim Bowden is the guy who will call you at 1:30 in the morning and say, ‘I have the deal that will win the World Series for you.’”

Bowden took over a 90-win team and watched them lose big in 1993. Then the Reds ruled the newly-formed NL Central for a couple of years. They won the division in ’95 with a top-tier salary structure but Schott ordered a payroll cut in the off-season and drove manager Davey Johnson out of town.

Bowden managed to keep the Reds’ core together but Cincinnati dropped to a .500 record in 1996 on the way to a stretch of sub-mediocrity until a brief revival five years later. After this blip, the Red spent the 2000s far out of contention.

In 2002, Bowden came under heavy fire for comparing a potential players walkout to the 9/11 attacks, with the public pillorying him for insensitivity to the victims of terrorism and MLB thrashing him for speaking publicly about labor negotiations.

He was fired along with manager Bob Boone in July 2003 and then spent a year and a half doing occasional studio analysis for ESPN until the Montreal/Washington opportunity opened up.

As the Reds’ GM, Bowden established some productive relationships with a handful of other GMs, notably John Hart of the Indians, Woody Woodward of the Mariners, Randy Smith of the Tigers and John Schuerholz of the Braves, all of whom are out of the business as of this time.

Several of Bowden’s preferred trading partners in the Reds years still run MLB teams, though. Bowden engineered six swaps each with Dave Dombrowski (five with the Marlins and one with the Tigers) and Dan O’Dowd of the Rockies. Bowden also worked four deals with Bill Bavasi, GM of the Angels at the time.

O’Dowd clearly was a favorite dance partner. During a year and a half span after O’Dowd took over the Colorado operation in 1999, he and Bowden traded a total of 17 players.

The Rockies (nine trades) were Bowden’s favorite team to deal with overall from 1993 through 2003. The Indians came in a close second with eight trades. As a trader, Bowden split his deals evenly between the leagues (51 with the AL; 49 with the NL.) He swung 21 deals with teams in the National League East teams (19 after the six-division set up was introduced), his favorite division.

Bowden seems not to be terribly shy about acquiring controversial or troubled players, dealing for Deion Sanders in Cincy and Jose Guillen in Washington. He often sought established veterans whose better days had passed, including Kevin Mitchell twice, Lee Smith, Ruben Sierra, Greg Vaughn and Dante Bichette. Only Bichette and the second Mitchell acquisition could be considered stretch drive deals.

Sean Casey and Danny Graves flowered after Bowden trades brought them to Cincy. Bowden missed recognizing Paul Konerko’s potential, getting him from the Dodgers, then sending him to the White Sox for Mike Cameron. After one year, Bowden turned Cameron around, peddling him, Brett Tomko and a couple of palookas to the Mariners for Ken Griffey, Jr.

The February 2000 Griffey deal was Bowden’s biggest in Cincinnati. A native of Cincinnati whose father was part of the Big Red Machine, Griffey was brought in to jumpstart a revival that, it was hoped, would put a contender in Great American Ballpark when it opened in 2003. It wasn’t a bad gamble, considering that Griffey at the time of the trade was acknowledged as one of the two or three top players in the game. Additionally, the Reds had just come off two straight second-place finishes. Griffey’s subsequent streak of injuries played a part in Bowden’s demise in Cincinnati.

Bowden called the shots in 11 entry drafts for the Reds. Only Austin Kearns (1998) became a productive big leaguer. (Incidentally, C.J. Nitkowski, selected in 1994, started one of the very first pro athlete personal websites, offering stream-of-consciousness in diary form that presaged blogs.) Among Bowden’s later Reds draft choices, only Jeremy Sowers (2001, first round) and Joey Votto (2002, second round) seem to offer promise. Bowden apparently was impressed with a Long Island high school left handed pitcher named Nick Markakis, drafting him twice, in 2001 and 2002. Markakis declined to sign both times, converted to the outfield in college and eventually signed with the Orioles.

Tainted by the 9/11 remark and saddled with a team that would go on to lose 93 games, Bowden was fired in mid-season 2003 along with manager Bob Boone. His reputation as a glib bargainer was well-established, his survival through the Schott years was a testament to his resilience, but even after a decade at the helm, no one could say if Bowden had the capability of building a contender with staying power.

Next up: the Washington experience.

By Big Mike Glab

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Cincinnati Reds GM Trade Profiles Jim Bowden

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Kinsler Talking Long-Term Deal

By Tim Dierkes | February 15, 2008 at 2:17pm CDT

2:17pm:The Rangers signed Kinsler for near the minimum for ’08, which doesn’t really affect the long-term discussions.

10:40am:According to Anthony Andro of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, the Rangers have made little progress on a long-term deal with second baseman Ian Kinsler.  Jon Daniels was positive about it, however.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News does see progress – he spoke to Kinsler and learned that talks for a five-year pact are ongoing.  A sixth-year option could be included as well.

Kinsler has two years of service time, so a five-year deal would buy out one year of free agency.  Grant believes a five-year deal for Kinsler would be for less than the $30MM Robinson Cano received.  Kinsler, 25, has a career line of .274/.351/.447 in 250 games.  The average AL second baseman hit .284/.339/.416 last year.  Kinsler’s probably not among the top ten defensively at his position, if you go by the Fielding Bible awards.

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New York Yankees Texas Rangers Ian Kinsler Robinson Cano

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Brandon Phillips Signs Four-Year Deal

By Tim Dierkes | February 15, 2008 at 1:53pm CDT

According to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News, the Reds have agreed in principle to a long-term deal with second baseman Brandon Phillips.  The arbitration hearing is off.  The AP says it’s a four-year, $27MM contract.  There is also a fifth year option that becomes mutual if he’s traded.

The deal buys out one year of free agency.  Sometimes I have trouble evaluating deals of this nature, I’m not going to lie.  The question is, what is the projected amount of savings the Reds are getting here?  Chase Utley signed his extension in January of ’07.  For his fourth through seventh years in the bigs he’ll get $38MM, plus a $2MM signing bonus.  Robinson Cano will make $39MM for the same slice of his career if his 2012 option is exercised.  Viewed that way, the Phillips deal seems solid.

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Cincinnati Reds Brandon Phillips

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Astros Beat Jose Valverde In Arbitration Case

By Tim Dierkes | February 15, 2008 at 12:17pm CDT

Another reliever bites the dust; Jose Valverde will receive $4.7MM rather than the $6.2MM he was after.  That $1.5MM could go toward another starter, as could another $2.15MM saved in the event the Astros beat Mark Loretta (I think they will).  Of course, the list of remaining free agent starters ain’t pretty.  It shouldn’t be on February 15th.

Valverde is under the Astros’ control through the 2009 season.  If he has another 40 save season, he can probably vault past $10MM for ’09.

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Houston Astros Jose Valverde Mark Loretta

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Astros Beat Jose Valverde In Arbitration Case

By Tim Dierkes | February 15, 2008 at 12:13pm CDT

Another reliever bites the dust; Jose Valverde will receive $4.7MM rather than the $6.2MM he was after.  That $1.5MM could go toward another starter, as could another $2.15MM saved in the event the Astros beat Mark Loretta (I think they will).  Of course, the list of remaining free agent starters ain’t pretty.  It shouldn’t be on February 15th.

Valverde is under the Astros’ control through the 2009 season.  If he has another 40 save season, he can probably vault past $10MM for ’09.

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Houston Astros Jose Valverde

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Rockies Win Arbitration Case Against Fuentes

By Tim Dierkes | February 15, 2008 at 11:49am CDT

The Rockies beat Brian Fuentes in their arbitration hearing, with the panel choosing the team’s $5.05MM figure over Fuentes’ $6.5MM.  Can’t hurt his trade value.

Fuentes, a 32 year-old southpaw, is set to enter 2008 as a setup man for the first time in quite a while.  Given that this is his contract year, it’s not ideal for him.  He’ll get paid regardless, but I’m sure he’d prefer to hit the market with another 30 saves in his pocket.  Here’s a look at the pecking order for saves on each of the 30 clubs.

The Braves were interested in Fuentes in December, but didn’t want to take on his entire salary.  The Mets and Red Sox also reportedly inquired that month.

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Colorado Rockies Brian Fuentes

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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana’s Contract

By Tim Dierkes | February 15, 2008 at 11:27am CDT

The biggest move of this year’s Hot Stove League was clearly the trade of Johan Santana. The subsequent contract given to Santana by the Mets set a new benchmark for pitchers and could have a lasting trickle-down effect on other pitchers in baseball. The players most likely to cash in on the Santana deal are other young lefties with strong track records. The first fallout appears to be in Cleveland, with the recent news that C.C. Sabathia has broken off contract talks. With pitchers and catchers conducting their first workouts in many camps today, let’s take a look at how Santana’s deal is affecting other pitchers in the blogosphere.

  • Let’s Go Tribe feels that Sabathia could command $150MM on the open market and breaking off contract talks means Sabathia will not be a member of the Indians in 2009.
  • Indians Confidential agrees that Sabathia is "as good as gone."
  • Tribe Report does not think the Indians should give Sabathia a seven-year deal as it is a stretch to think he will be worth $20MM at age 35.
  • MLB Fleece Factor calls it "The Santana Effect" and believes that Santana’s new deal means that A.J. Burnett will likely opt out of his contract in Toronto following the 2008 season. In addition, they believe that there is a possibility that the Jays will look to trade Roy Halladay prior to his 2010 free agency.
  • Rays Index believes there is a good chance the Rays will look to trade Scott Kazmir following the 2008 season. They feel that Santana’s deal will make it nearly impossible for the Rays to sign Kazmir to an extension prior to his 2010 free agency. In addition, the recent bounty obtained by the Orioles for Erik Bedard and the pipeline of top pitching prospects in the Rays’ system, suggest that it is in the best interest of the franchise to move their young ace.

by Cork Gaines

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Baseball Blogs Weigh In New York Mets Johan Santana

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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana’s Contract

By Tim Dierkes | February 15, 2008 at 11:26am CDT

The biggest move of this year’s Hot Stove League was clearly the trade of Johan Santana. The subsequent contract given to Santana by the Mets set a new benchmark for pitchers and could have a lasting trickle-down effect on other pitchers in baseball. The players most likely to cash in on the Santana deal are other young lefties with strong track records. The first fallout appears to be in Cleveland, with the recent news that C.C. Sabathia has broken off contract talks. With pitchers and catchers conducting their first workouts in many camps today, let’s take a look at how Santana’s deal is affecting other pitchers in the blogosphere.

  • Let’s Go Tribe feels that Sabathia could command $150MM on the open market and breaking off contract talks means Sabathia will not be a member of the Indians in 2009.
  • Indians Confidential agrees that Sabathia is "as good as gone."
  • Tribe Report does not think the Indians should give Sabathia a seven-year deal as it is a stretch to think he will be worth $20MM at age 35.
  • MLB Fleece Factor calls it "The Santana Effect" and believes that Santana’s new deal means that A.J. Burnett will likely opt out of his contract in Toronto following the 2008 season. In addition, they believe that there is a possibility that the Jays will look to trade Roy Halladay prior to his 2010 free agency.
  • Rays Index believes there is a good chance the Rays will look to trade Scott Kazmir following the 2008 season. They feel that Santana’s deal will make it nearly impossible for the Rays to sign Kazmir to an extension prior to his 2010 free agency. In addition, the recent bounty obtained by the Orioles for Erik Bedard and the pipeline of top pitching prospects in the Rays’ system, suggest that it is in the best interest of the franchise to move their young ace.

by Cork Gaines

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Cleveland Guardians Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays A.J. Burnett C.C. Sabathia Johan Santana Roy Halladay Scott Kazmir

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