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Archives for September 2010

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jorge Cantu

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When the Marlins traded Jorge Cantu to the Rangers before this year's July 31st deadline, it was a prime opportunity for Cantu to turn his season around. Playing for a postseason contender in a hitter-friendly park, the 28-year-old was in a good position to improve his stock with a productive stretch run. It's still possible that Cantu will come up with some timely hits in the playoffs for the Rangers, but so far, his time in Texas has been a major disappointment. In 75 plate appearances, Cantu has hit .206/.270/.265 and has yet to drive in a run.

Prior to the season, Cantu was coming off a two-year stretch in Florida in which he hit .283/.336/.462, averaged over 20 homers per season, and logged playing time at both corner infield positions. His performance earned him a $6MM contract for his final year of arbitration eligibility, but his discouraging 2010 campaign doesn't bode well for his impending free agency.

When teams consider Cantu this winter, one thing working in his favor is his history. This isn't the first time the infielder has had a letdown year following a successful one – in 2006, on the heels of a .286/.311/.497, 28-homer season for the Rays, Cantu hit just .249/.295/.404. His drop-off in OPS that season (.808 to .699) looks awfully similar to his decline from 2009 to 2010 (.788 to .691). Cantu rebounded nicely after signing with the Marlins, and he's still young enough that he could do so again.

Even if a club takes a chance on Cantu's ability to bounce back though, it's hard to imagine him landing more than a short-term deal. The first base market is flush with alternatives, and Cantu has never been a strong defensive third baseman, according to UZR. Cantu's best option may be signing an affordable one-year deal in the hopes that he can rebuild his value and ink a long-term contract next winter, entering his age-30 season.

Stark On Crawford, Werth, Beltre, Torre

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Commissioner Bud Selig told ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark that he’ll consider expanded instant replay and adding a second Wild Card team. Stark also passes along news on the player-agent industry and rumors from around the league:

  • The MLBPA and MLB have agreed to move up the date by which teams have to tender contracts and offer arbitration to free agents in an attempt to hurry the offseason along. This development could mean that we see fewer unsigned players late in the offseason.
  • The players’ association is working to better regulate interactions between players and agents. For example, agents can’t promise anything of value to players who they don’t represent. No more free trips or cars from rival agents!
  • Players who can go to arbitration or file for free agency will now have to check in with the MLBPA before changing agents.
  • Five of the six executives Stark surveyed named Carl Crawford this year’s best free agent position player (Jayson Werth received one vote).
  • The Yankees are more likely to bid aggressively on Crawford than Werth, but Cliff Lee figures to be their top free agent target.
  • Stark says the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Tigers and Giants seem like the best bets to pursue Werth this offseason.
  • Adrian Beltre puzzles Stark’s sources, since he has so much upside, but tends to flash his ability most tantalizingly in contract years.
  • Three baseball people who are all acquainted with Joe Torre say the Dodgers manager would like to manage the Mets next year, but they don’t think it’ll happen.
  • Atlanta GM Frank Wren anticipates that the Braves will be in the market for a veteran reliever again this winter.

Extension Candidate: Shin-Soo Choo

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When Chris Antonetti officially becomes the Indians GM this offseason, he'll probably consider extending Shin-Soo Choo. It would mean working with agent Scott Boras on a multi-year deal and while that may sound intimidating, there's precedent for this kind of contract. Early in 2009, Prince Fielder, another Boras client, signed a two-year deal that bought out a pair of his arbitration seasons.

Choo will be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason and Boras has hinted that he'd be open to a multi-year deal. Boras clients, Fielder included, aren't generally easy to sign long-term, so the Indians may have trouble locking Choo up beyond his three arbitration seasons. Here's a look ahead to a potential three-year deal between the Indians and their right fielder.

Let's start by estimating what Choo would make if the Indians don't extend him. Three other outfielders (none of them super twos) match up reasonably well with Choo if you compare his stats to what they had accomplished heading into their first arbitration seasons. B.J. Upton ($3MM), Josh Willingham ($2.95MM) and Ryan Ludwick ($3.7MM) all signed deals worth $3MM or so for their first arbitration seasons. 

You could make the case, as Boras may, that Choo has accomplished more than any of those three players at comparable stages in their careers. When you compare Choo to the other three players in home runs, RBI, runs, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage and steals, it becomes apparent that the Indians outfielder has a strong case to earn over $3MM next year. Upton beats Choo in steals and runs scored, but loses in every other category; Willingham loses to Choo in every category but home runs and Ludwick loses in every category but home runs and slugging percentage.

Choo's defense is also strong; he has a 7.7 UZR this season and leads all MLB outfielders in assists with 13. He was among the top ten MLB outfielders in assists last year and consistently gets to more balls than most AL right fielders. He doesn't head into arbitration with quite the same platform year that Ludwick did, but Choo will be coming off a second consecutive 20 homer, 20 steal season. A $3.5MM payday in 2011 seems within reach.

If Choo is making $3-4MM next year and is set to receive raises in 2012 and 2013, the Indians would likely have to be prepared to spend considerably to sign Choo for the next three seasons. Antonetti could go year to year, especially if it looks like Choo will have to serve in the South Korean military, but if the Indians do sign their right fielder for the next three years, it probably won't be for less than $20MM.

Nick Markakis, who signed a long-term extension with the Orioles after the 2008 season, then had remarkably similar numbers to the ones Choo has now. Markakis, who also has a strong throwing arm and plays right field, edges Choo in average, runs and homers, but Choo has more RBI and steals and better on base and slugging averages. Markakis' extension could be a model for Cleveland and he will earn $20MM for his three arbitration seasons.

Odds & Ends: Kasten, Pirates, Rolen

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Links for Thursday as we congratulate Jose Bautista and Ichiro Suzuki. Bautista hit his 50th homer of the season in Toronto today and soon afterwards, Ichiro reached the 200-hit plateau for the tenth time in his ten-year career…

  • Nationals president Stan Kasten will not return to the team after the season, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (Twitter links). Owner Ted Lerner released a statement saying the organization respects Kasten's decision and "will continue to call upon him for his vast knowledge of the game."
  • Pirates manager John Russell tells MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch that the Pirates are closer to respectability than some think. Russell, who faces speculation that he could be dismissed, says he isn't worried about his job security.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports admits that his initial assessment of the Scott Rolen trade was off-base. Like many analysts, Morosi questioned the Reds' decision to give up top prospects (Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke) for a third baseman who appeared to be past his prime.

Mike Adams & Michael Wuertz

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Mike Adams was never going to match the 0.73 ERA he posted for the Padres in 2009, but his 2010 season hasn't been bad at all. In a career high 63 appearances, Adams has a 1.79 ERA and he's striking out more than a batter per inning. If the Padres choose to extend Adams this offseason, they could model a deal after one signed by another right-handed setup man who strikes out tons of batters without the benefit of an upper-nineties fastball.

When Michael Wuertz signed an extension with the A's last offseason, he had similar career numbers to the ones Adams has now. Adams has a lower ERA than Wuertz did and he walks fewer batters, but he hasn't pitched as much as Wuertz had. As the table below shows, Adams is now in a similar position to the one Wuertz found himself in a year ago.

Wuertz & Adams
Wuertz ultimately signed a two-year $5.25MM extension that covered his remaining two arbitration seasons. The Padres could look to buy out Adams' remaining two arbitration seasons for a similar amount this winter. Given the pitchers' remarkably similar rate stats, service time and salaries, a two-year deal worth $5MM or so would be fair value for both sides.

D’backs Notes: Padres, Maddux, Towers

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New Arizona GM Kevin Towers told reporters yesterday that he intends to get to know the existing D'Backs front office within the next couple of weeks. But after decades in the game, he has lots of connections of his own and some of them could end up in Arizona. Here's the latest on which former Padres people Towers may add to the Diamondbacks front office:

  • Towers has targeted Padres scout Bill Bryk and assistant GM Fred Uhlman Jr, according to Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse.
  • Towers told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he'd like to hire Greg Maddux as the team's next bench coach or pitching coach. "I told Greg two years ago as soon as you want to be on the field please make me the first call," Towers said. The bullpen will be a priority for Towers, who signed Maddux as a free agent twice.
  • MLB.com's Fred Claire says the GM-manager combination of Kevin Towers and Kirk Gibson provides the D'Backs with the "detail-oriented, passionate" leadership the organization needs. I'm willing to take Claire's word for it, since he was Gibson's GM in Los Angeles and worked opposite Towers as Dodgers GM early in Towers' tenure with the Padres, from 1995-1998.

Poll: The Next Losing Team To Make The Playoffs

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Eight teams have assured themselves of losing records in 2010, but they're all trying to turn things around and reach the postseason. Could the Diamondbacks, under new GM Kevin Towers, be the first to reach the playoffs? What about the Royals, who have so much minor league talent? Or the Cubs, a big-market team with a number of pieces already in place? It's time to vote on those teams, plus the Nationals, Pirates, Mariners, Indians and Orioles.

Which losing team will reach the playoffs first?

Click here to vote and here to see the results.

Angels Rumors: Rivera, Abreu, Crawford

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Angels manager Mike Scioscia and GM Tony Reagins told Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times that offense is not necessarily the team’s biggest issue heading into the offseason. Here are the details on the Angels’ winter plans:

  • Reagins and Scioscia gave DiGiovanna the impression that the Angels will look to sign a reliable veteran reliever.
  • It appears that the Angels will look to trade Juan Rivera and move Bobby Abreu to DH, according to DiGiovanna.
  • That would leave Peter Bourjos in center, Torii Hunter in right and a Carl Crawford-sized opening in left. The Angels are expected to pursue the Rays outfielder, who hits free agency after the season. Crawford fits on the Angels if Hideki Matsui leaves via free agency and the Angels bench or trade Rivera.

Red Sox Rumors: Ortiz, Papelbon

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Imagine the Red Sox without David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon. Heading into the 2010-11 offseason, it's hard to do, but not utterly impossible. As you'll see below, it now looks like both will be back in Boston next year…

  • David Ortiz told Mike Petraglia of WEEI.com that he'd like to retire in Boston, but he realizes it's out of his control. "Sometimes, I feel like I'm part of the family and I'm going to stick around longer but I'm not the one who takes that decision," Ortiz said. The Red Sox can bring Big Papi back for $12.5MM next year, though he has expressed interest in a long-term deal.
  • Red Sox GM Theo Epstein told John Tomase of the Boston Herald that he'd like to bring back Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon in 2011. “Having two really good pitchers is better than one,” he said. “Sometimes you don’t want to overcomplicate things.” Both pitchers are under team control, but Papelbon has struggled this year and will make an eight-figure salary in 2011, so he's a trade candidate.

Cardinals Notes: Westbrook, Carpenter, La Russa

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In a recent chat, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post Dispatch writes that few appreciate how much turnover could occur if Tony La Russa does not return to the Cardinals next season.  Let's see what else he has for us..

  • Offering Jake Westbrook arbitration would be a risky move for the Cards as he is virtually guaranteed to receive an increase over this year's $11MM salary.  If St. Louis does want to keep the soon-to-be 33-year-old in the fold, Strauss believes that they will open talks before the free agency filing period like they did with Joel Pineiro and and Kyle Lohse.  However, the club locked up Pineiro and Lohse with multi-year deals at market or above-market rates, something that they're probably not capable of doing at this time with Westbrook.
  • Speaking of starters, it's hard to imagine the Cardinals giving Chris Carpenter similar money to what he makes now if they re-sign Albert Pujols.  Carpenter's contract calls for him to earn $15MM next season with a $15MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2012.
  • It's fair to say that Felipe Lopez found himself unmotivated to perform after the Cards acquired Pedro Feliz last month.  The infielder struggled at the plate this season, hitting just .231/.310/.340 with seven homers in 425 plate appearances.  The club sent Lopez packing yesterday afternoon.
  • Strauss expects to see La Russa back in St. Louis unless he hears something that he doesn't like from the ownership or front office.

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