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Archives for November 2010

Odds & Ends: Mets, Blue Jays, Wood, Jenks

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Congratulations to the 2010 World Champion San Francisco Giants! Here are your links as the celebration begins…

D’Backs Rumors: Konerko, LaRoche, Padres

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As soon as he took over in Arizona, GM Kevin Towers said he intended to improve the team's bullpen and bench. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic hears that the D’Backs still plan to spend on those areas. Here are the details on the club's offseason plans:

  • Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago reported over the weekend that the D’Backs will pursue Paul Konerko, but Piecoro suggests a deal with Konerko “probably won’t happen.” The first baseman is in position to demand a lot of money and D’Backs people aren’t sure he can provide enough defense at first base.
  • Piecoro says it sounds like the D’Backs won’t pick up their part of the $7.5MM mutual option for Adam LaRoche this winter. That suggests that Towers is willing to pay a $1.5MM buyout instead.
  • Expect the D’Backs to add Padres executive Bill Bryk, who worked with Towers in San Diego.

Giants Don’t Intend To Trade Zito

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Giants GM Brian Sabean told Bill Shaikin of the LA Times that he does not intend to trade Barry Zito this offseason. The Giants owe the left-hander $64.5MM over the course of the next three years – a lot of money for someone who hasn’t pitched like a $20MM player. Zito struggled down the stretch and is not on the Giants’ World Series roster, but Sabean says he likes having him on the team.

"We like Barry's contribution as far as the innings he pitches and the starts he makes," Sabean said. 

Zito, who is in the fourth year of his seven-year $126MM deal, logged just under 200 innings this season. He posted a 4.25 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 overall, but pitched to a 6.14 ERA in August and September. Zito makes his starts, but it's not as if teams are lining up to acquire the former Cy Young Award winner. The Giants couldn't trade him without taking on $40MM or more.

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and last night's hero, Madison Bumgarner, occupy four spots in San Francisco's rotation. Sabean said lefty reliever Dan Runzler may get the chance to start, according to Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse (on Twitter).

Recent Non-Tenders

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About a month from now, a new class of non-tenders will hit the free agent market. We've been breaking down the cases for and against tendering players contracts, but let's take a look at the players who were non-tendered from 2007-09.

This list doesn't have tons of predictive value, since some teams (like the one atop the list) now have new GMs and others have simply had bigger arbitration classes than others. That said, the results are still interesting:

Rangers Notes: Payroll, Lee, Washington

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The offseason isn't far away, so the Rangers are thinking ahead, even though they can continue their bid for a World Series title with a win against the Giants tonight. Here's the latest on the AL Champs:

  • GM Jon Daniels says the Rangers may be able to increase payroll next year, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter). The Rangers intend to bid on Cliff Lee, who won't come cheap, so it's not surprising to hear that the club has the flexibility to spend.
  • Yankees people are angry that Rangers owner Chuck Greenberg called Yankees fans "an embarrassment," according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). Heyman says the Yankees will return fire after the World Series. The best way of retaliating would probably be to lure Lee to the Bronx if you ask me.
  • Daniels left no doubt that the Rangers will sign manager Ron Washington to a multi-year deal after the World Series, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (on Twitter).

A User’s Guide To MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker

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MLBTR is introducing a database that sorts transactions by player, date, team, transaction type, GM, agency and more. Here are some guidelines to the transaction tracker:

Features & Tips

  • Hover over the leftmost column for more detailed info on a transaction, such as who a player was traded for and a link to the MLBTR post on the deal.
  • You can link to results or share them on Facebook and Twitter by clicking on the “Link Results” button once you complete a search. 
  • You can search for transactions between teams or GMs with this database.
  • We highly recommend searching for different contracts. For example, if you want to know how many teams handed out two-year extensions worth at least $10MM and no more than $12MM between 2008 and 2010, this is the tool for you.
  • Some searches yield hundreds of transactions and they don’t all show up at once. Click “Load More Transactions” at the bottom of the page to ensure you’re seeing complete results.
  • Click on the columns to sort according to different categories.

What The Database Can And Cannot Do

  • We have made every effort to add as much data as possible, but the database does have limitations.
  • We have extensive trade, signing, release and waiver claim data that dates back to 1900 thanks to the help of Sean Forman and Baseball-Reference.com. We don't have complete data for that entire period, though.
  • We have GM data from 1980 on, thanks to Baseball America’s fantastic executive database.
  • Signings before 2006 do not all have dollar figures attached.
  • We have non-tender data from 2007 on.
  • Extension data for non-current players is incomplete.
  • International signing data is incomplete.
  • Agent data is incomplete.

Feedback

  • Send questions or corrections to mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Acknowledgements

  • Many thanks to Mike Melusky, Cale Cox, Daniel Lowenstein and Tony Bennett. Without their considerable skill and hard work, Tim Dierkes and I would not have come close to completing this database.

Trade Market For Right-handed Starters

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It's a murky trade market for right-handed starters.  We can assume certain pitchers with burdensome contracts can be had, but the availability of the more interesting names is unknown.

Bad Contracts

Derek Lowe ($30MM through '12), A.J. Burnett ($49.5MM through '13), Daisuke Matsuzaka ($20MM through '12), Aaron Cook ($9.75MM through '11), Carlos Zambrano ($35.875MM through '12), Kenshin Kawakami ($6.667MM through '11), and Gil Meche ($12MM through '11) fill out this group.  Some contracts are worse than others, and names like Lowe and Zambrano are not necessarily on the market.

Are They Available?

We've got six interesting righties who could hit the market: Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Garza, James Shields, and Jeff Niemann.  Greinke would really shake up the pitching market, though the price would be huge and he has a partial no-trade clause.  The Rays are at least six-deep in their rotation, causing many to wonder if Garza, Shields, Niemann, or at least Andy Sonnanstine could be available.  The Orioles might prefer the stability Guthrie adds, though this could be a sell-high opportunity.  Marcum is under team control for two more years; is there any good reason to flip him?

The Marlins' Ricky Nolasco could be a name to watch this summer, as could Chicago's Edwin Jackson.

Non-Tender Candidates

We mentioned Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister, Jeff Karstens, Dustin Moseley, John Maine, Sergio Mitre, and Brandon McCarthy as non-tender candidates earlier.  If a team is willing to tender a contract, we could see trades in advance of the December 2nd non-tender deadline.

Summary

The free agent market for right-handed starters is uninspiring, but names like Greinke, Garza, and Shields would spice up the landscape considerably.

Free Agent Market For Right-handed Starters

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The free agent market for right-handed starters features an array of mediocrity.  Let's break it down.

The Best Available

Five healthy right-handed starters jump out from this year's free agent class: Carl Pavano, Bronson Arroyo, Jake Westbrook, Jon Garland, and Hiroki Kuroda.  Arroyo is expected to be retained by the Reds, however.  All five pitched 195+ innings, with Pavano actually tallying 227 including the playoffs.  Pavano also leads free agent righties in innings per start by a wide margin at 6.91.  As a Type A free agent, he'll likely carry the added cost of a draft pick.

Out of this group no one posted an ERA above Westbrook's 4.22, but Baseball Prospectus' cool SIERA stat suggests no one deserved one below 4.00 except Kuroda.  Aside from Arroyo, they're all groundballers.  Kuroda is the only thing close to a strikeout pitcher here, and his control and groundball rate were strong too.  Though he turns 36 in February, Kuroda is my pick from this group.  They're all capable innings eaters, though.

Teams willing to spend $8MM+ per year on one of these guys should look at Japanese righty Hisashi Iwakuma.  He may require a $16MM posting fee plus a contract, but he's only 30 and had pretty good numbers in Japan this year.

Back-End Rotation Types

Rodrigo Lopez, Kevin Millwood, Dave Bush, Jeremy Bonderman, and Freddy Garcia profile as 4.75 ERA, back-end rotation types.  Lopez and Millwood can chew up innings better than the others.  All five are prone to the longball.

Bounceback Candidates

Javier Vazquez, Kevin Correia, Aaron Harang, and Rich Harden are a year removed from useful seasons.  All four had attractive strikeout rates as starters this year.  Correia, with a 48.9% groundball rate, could be a sleeper.

Injured In 2010

Vicente Padilla (forearm) and Brad Penny (back) had strong but abbreviated seasons.  Brandon Webb (shoulder), Justin Duchscherer (hip), and Chris Young (shoulder) barely pitched at all.  Many millions will be guaranteed to these guys in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.

Non-Tender Candidates

Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister, Jeff Karstens, Dustin Moseley, John Maine, Sergio Mitre, and Brandon McCarthy are candidates to be cut loose next month by their teams.  They've all had their moments.

Outside The Box Options

Pedro Martinez and Braden Looper sat out the 2010 season; perhaps they could still help at the back-end of an NL rotation.  Koji Uehara spent the year as a reliever but would be an interesting starting candidate if he could stay healthy.

Fighting For Innings

Jeff Suppan, Todd Wellemeyer, Brian Moehler, Ian Snell, and Micah Owings will have to battle for opportunities and will have to be open to the bullpen or minor leagues.

Summary

As always, there's a handful of pitchers coming off solid seasons and a larger group of injured or ineffective hurlers.

Odds & Ends: Long, Romanick, Falkenborg, Carlin

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Links for Monday, as Cliff Lee looks to leave a strong last impression on his 2010 season against Tim Lincecum and the Giants…

Non-Tender Candidate: Casey Kotchman

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The Mariners acquired Casey Kotchman from the Red Sox in January, installing him as Russell Branyan's replacement at first base.  457 plate appearances later, Kotchman is a lock to be non-tendered next month.

Kotchman, 28 in February, hit .217/.280/.336 for the Mariners this year.  He's known for his defense, but more was expected offensively.  He earned $3.5175MM in 2010, but may have to settle for a minor league deal this time around.

There is some silver lining for Kotchman's bat.  In 2007 for the Angels, Kotchman hit .296/.372/.467 in 508 plate appearances.  Drafted 13th overall in '01, Kotchman had seemingly recovered from a bout with mononucleosis and broken through in the bigs.  He was the centerpiece of the Angels' trade with Atlanta for Mark Teixeira in July of '08, but his power slipped into reserve territory from that point forward.

Next month expect to see many of the up-and-comers of several years ago non-tendered, such as Kotchman, Conor Jackson, John Maine, Zach Duke, Jeff Francoeur, and Brandon McCarthy.

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