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Discussion: Changes Coming In Boston?

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Following the Red Sox' three-game sweep at the hands of the last-place Baltimore Orioles, GM Theo Epstein insinuated that the team may need to make roster changes. In a piece by John Tomase of the Boston Herald, Epstein assesses the current state of his club:

"We’re still playing bad baseball. Unintelligent, undisciplined, uninspired baseball. It’s got to change…. It either changes itself or we have to do something to change it."

The Red Sox ranked first in baseball in offseason spending, investing in players like John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, and Marco Scutaro. The on-field product has underperformed so far though, looking up in the standings at the Rays, Yankees, and even the Blue Jays.

As Tomase suggests, it's hard to single out one player or even one aspect of the team as the root of the problem. However, when considering the likelihood of a drastic roster move, it's worth noting that many of the struggling players are in the final year of their contracts. Victor Martinez has had trouble throwing out basestealers and is hitting just .233/.298/.314. Designated hitters David Ortiz (.159/.254/.381) and Mike Lowell (.222/.300/.333) are underachieving and overpaid. Even Beltre, despite a .330 average, has yet to homer and has played mediocre defense by his standards, committing his sixth error of the season tonight.

The Red Sox are, of course, unlikely to become sellers, but they'll need to turn things around soon or risk falling from contention in a competitive division. If the Sox fail to make up ground on the Rays and Yankees in the AL East, what moves could you see the club making in the coming weeks and months?

What To Expect In May

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With the trade deadline still off in the distance, and few names remaining on the free agent market, May generally isn't one of the most exciting months for baseball's hot stove. However, as the month progresses, the standings will continue to take shape, and buyers and sellers should begin to emerge. With a look back at May 2009, let's predict the sort of stories we can expect this May….

  • Underachieving teams will often show their managers the door around this time of year, with a few weeks of action in the books. Last season, the Diamondbacks fired Bob Melvin and the Rockies parted ways with Clint Hurdle. This year? A recent hot streak eased the pressure on the Mets' Jerry Manuel a little, and the Orioles' Dave Trembley is likely hoping for a similar run. His O's completed a sweep of the Red Sox yesterday, but are still just 7-18.
  • A few deals that eventually took place prior to July's trade deadline were foreshadowed in May: the Phillies, reeling from the loss of Brett Myers, were aiming for a high-impact starter and would later land Cliff Lee. The Red Sox were considering moving Brad Penny, and ultimately released the right-hander in August. And, of course, Jake Peavy nixed a blockbuster deal that would've sent him to the White Sox, but eventually ended up in Chicago anyway.
  • Speaking of Peavy, he was baseball's most-discussed trade target last May, an honor that this year could go to another Padre: Adrian Gonzalez.
  • Occasionally, we'll see an under-the-radar early-season trade that ends up making an impact. On May 9th last year, the Athletics' acquisition of Adam Kennedy didn't turn many heads, but Kennedy enjoyed one of his best seasons, hitting .289/.343/.410 and stealing 20 bases for Oakland.
  • We were already speculating last May about what Joe Mauer's next contract might look like, though Mauer didn't sign an extension until the spring of 2010. Cardinals fans hoping to hear good news about an Albert Pujols extension in the near future, take note. Your patience may be tested.
  • The case of David Ortiz provides an explicit case of history repeating itself. A year ago, there was speculation that the Red Sox would have to explore other options to replace Ortiz's dwindling production. Big Papi turned things around in 2009, but similar opinions are being expressed this season after the 34-year-old once again started slowly.
  • Don't forget that June's First-Year Player Draft is right around the corner. Last May, Stephen Strasburg dominated pre-draft coverage, while this year it's Bryce Harper's name that keeps popping up.

2011 Contract Issues: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds face a slew of contractual options after the season:

  • Aaron Harang has a $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  The option price increases by $250K if Harang reaches 210 innings.  Plus, both the option price and buyout increase if he's traded.  If Harang stays with the Reds through the season, they'll decline.
  • Bronson Arroyo has an $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  The option can increase to $13MM based on innings pitched.  I envision the Reds declining this as well, giving them flexibility to sign a veteran replacement.
  • Shortstop Orlando Cabrera has a $4MM mutual option, with a buyout that can be worth either $0.5MM or $1MM.  It'll probably be the latter, assuming the player exercises and the club declines.
  • Catcher Ramon Hernandez has a $3.25MM option that vests with 120 games.  Assuming Ryan Hanigan stays healthy, this won't vest.
  • Outfielder Jonny Gomes has a $1.75MM club option with a buyout ranging from $50K to $200K based on plate appearances.

The Reds have three other free agents in Arthur Rhodes, Mike Lincoln, and Miguel Cairo.  The trio earns $5MM this year.  All told the Reds will clear just under $30MM if all of these players are allowed to leave, accounting for buyouts.

The Reds have $4.76MM in increases to players under contract, most of it going to Brandon Phillips.  They'll also owe first-time arbitration raises to Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Micah Owings, and Bill Bray.  Jared Burton and Laynce Nix will be in the second-time class.  It'll cost over $10MM extra to retain the key players, with Votto getting the biggest bump.

Holding payroll steady and allowing all free agents to leave, the Reds should have over $10MM to work with.  They'll have a lot of holes to fill.  If the Reds are out of the race in a few months, saving $5-10MM in salary dumps would go a long way for 2011.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Bengie Molina To Retire After Season?

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MONDAY, 2:19pm: FOX Sports' Jim Bowden tweets that Giants manager Bruce Bochy says Molina was just posturing.

SATURDAY, 8:37pm: Giants catcher Bengie Molina says that he will likely call it a career in the majors after the 2010 campaign, tweets Sean Farnham of FOX Sports Radio.  Molina added that he is unhappy with the way the Buster Posey situation has been handled.

The news is surprising considering Molina's play so far this season.  The 35-year-old is hitting .344/.403/.422 in 72 plate appearances.  With that kind of offensive production, it's hard to imagine that the veteran really wants to retire.

A shade over two weeks ago, Molina expressed his frustrations with how his free agency played out this offseason.  After turning down a $5.5MM offer from the Mets, Molina ultimately chose to stay in San Francisco for $1MM less.  While his 80 RBIs impressed some, his .265/.285/.442 slash line didn't lead to a multiyear offer.

Heyman On Harper, Werth, Rollins

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SI's Jon Heyman has word on Bryce Harper's expected demand after the 17-year-old catcher is drafted next month.  Heyman says the Scott Boras advisee "will seek to break last year's record $15.67 million bonus set by Stephen Strasburg."  It should be noted that in most places Strasburg's big league deal is reported as $15.1MM.  That deal included a $7.5MM bonus.  Back on April 20th, Baseball America's Jim Callis predicted Harper would sign for eight figures but less than Strasburg.   For more on the largest contracts in draft history, check out Mike Axisa's recent post.  On to Heyman's other rumors…

  • Heyman writes of pessimism that the Phillies can re-sign Jayson Werth.
  • Heyman adds that "People around baseball do expect the Phillies to make a huge effort to extend Jimmy Rollins beyond 2011, though there's no evidence there's any progress on that front."  Perhaps as a sign of goodwill, the Phillies exercised Rollins' $8.5MM club option for 2011 in December of '09.  Will the Phils give Rollins the Ryan Howard treatment, and extend him well before they need to?

Mariners Release Ricky Orta

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The Mariners released righty Ricky Orta to free up a 40-man roster spot for one of their recent call-ups, according to a team press release.

Orta, 25, posted a 1.94 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in 41.6 Double A innings last year.  Baseball America ranked Orta 27th among Mariners prospects heading into the season, expecting him to reach the big league bullpen.  However, he had Tommy John surgery in the spring.

Impending Free Agents By WAR

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You can't do much with a month's worth of data, but we like to look anyway.  Wins Above Replacement is a good way to boil down any player's contribution to one number.  Pulling data from FanGraphs, these 2011 free agents are potentially raising their stock.  Of course, WAR isn't everything, as Felipe Lopez can attest after signing for a million bucks following a 4.6 win season.

2011 Vesting Options Update

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We entered the season with nine 2011 vesting option situations to watch.  With one month in the books, several have already been pretty much decided.  Let's take a look.

  • Brian Fuentes, Angels.  A back strain put Fuentes on the DL for a little while, making it unlikely he reaches 55 games finished.  He'd need 51 in the team's remaining 136 games to cause his $9MM option to vest.
  • Billy Wagner, Braves.  Wagner's $6.5MM option vests with 50 games finished.  He's finished eight games so far, and would have a shot at 50.  However, the 38-year-old lefty recently told Braves manager Bobby Cox he'll retire after the season.
  • Trever Miller, Cardinals.  His $2MM option vests with 45 games, and he's appeared in seven so far.  That's behind Miller's typical pace; he's averaged 71 the last three years.  It's probably random, and Miller should still reach 45 games. 
  • Matt Cain, Giants.  The $6.25MM option probably would've vested, but the Giants decided to guarantee Cain's 2011 salary at $7MM as part of an extension.
  • Kerry Wood, Indians.  His $11MM option vests with 55 games finished, but a back injury has Wood just now approaching his 2010 big league debut.
  • Alex Cora, Mets.  His $2MM option vests with 80 starts.  He's started ten games so far.  With Luis Castillo and Jose Reyes in the Mets' middle infield, we can't rule this one out yet.
  • Darren Oliver, Rangers.  His $3.25MM option vests with 59 appearances.  He's already made a dozen, so this is looking likely.
  • Ramon Hernandez, Reds.  His $3.25MM option vests with 120 games played.  Hernandez is at 16 so far, with the red-hot Ryan Hanigan getting more playing time recently.
  • Magglio Ordonez, Tigers.  His $15MM option vests with 135 starts or 540 plate appearances.  He's at 25 games started and 113 plate appearances, so he'll get there barring injury.
  • We're down to five vesting options to monitor: Miller, Cora, Oliver, Hernandez, and Ordonez.  Also keep an eye on Francisco Rodriguez, whose scary $17.5MM option for 2012 vests with 100 games finished in 2010-11, 55 games finished in '11, and a successful physical after the '11 season.  K-Rod has finished nine games on the young season.

2011 Contract Issues: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays face two contractual options after the season:

  • Reliever Dan Wheeler has a $4MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  Wheeler is homer-prone, but he's somehow kept hits off the board in his best years.  He's also struggled against lefties at times.  The Rays may have better ways of spending the $3MM net price.
  • Infielder Willy Aybar has a $2.2MM club option with a $275K buyout.  For the Rays this is a matter of determining what Aybar would otherwise earn as a member of the third-time arbitration class.

The Rays have a huge slate of important free agents, headlined by Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, and Rafael Soriano.  Grant Balfour, Gabe Kapler, and Randy Choate will also be eligible.  The group earns about $40.4MM this year, more than half the Rays' payroll.  If Wheeler departs, $43.4MM will come off the books.

Increases to players under contract check in around $7.9MM, led by Ben Zobrist.  The total increase would reach $8.7MM if Aybar's option is exercised.  The Rays arbitration-eligibles include Andy Sonnanstine as a first-timer and Matt Garza, B.J. Upton, and J.P. Howell as big-name second-timers.  Jason Bartlett and Dioner Navarro would go for a third time, Lance Cormier a fourth.  The Rays may be inclined to lock up Garza.   They could potentially tack on $10MM retaining their key arbitration-eligibles.

Rays owner Stuart Sternberg said in February payroll will drop back under $60MM next year, from this year's $72.8MM range.  Holding payroll steady would've given the Rays over $20MM to fill vacancies from Crawford, Pena, or Soriano, or retain one or two of them.  Most of that free cash could disappear with a payroll cut, leading the Rays to turn to their deep farm system for the next wave of cheap talent.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Latin Links: Guerrero, Livan, Scutaro, Velazquez

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Links in Spanish from both sides of the Atlantic …

  • At a time when some Spanish-speaking players are feeling threatened by the political climate stateside, Vladimir Guerrero told Impacto Deportivo's Franklin Mirabal that the international makeup of the Rangers' roster contributed to his intradivisional move. "In Anaheim they treated me well, but in Texas I've found a lot of friendships, a lot of Latin players, and that makes me happy here. Right now, I don't think about retiring," he said. Guerrero is off to a strong start after managing only 407 PAs last season, his fewest since 1997.
  • Resurgent 35-year-old Livan Hernandez predicts to El Nuevo Herald's Luis Rangel that a rigorous offseason racquetball regimen could extend his career another five seasons and allow him to achieve his ultimate goal of breaking Luis Tiant's mark for most wins by a Cuban pitcher (he's 70 back at the moment). A little further in the future, Livan says he is seriously considering an attempt at cracking the PGA Senior Tour. He adds that he personally called the Marlins this offseason to offer his services, saying he "always wanted to return" to the site of his World Series MVP triumph, but he received no response from the team.
  • Small world: Marco Scutaro tells Lider en Deportes' Octavio Hernandez Pernia that he was in the gym with fellow free agent shortstop (and Caracas Lions teammate in the Venezuelan League) Alex Gonzalez at the precise moment when Gonzalez received a call from the Blue Jays expressing their desire to sign him as a replacement for Scutaro. "I think that was when I knew I was out of there," Scutaro says. Nevertheless, Gonzalez adds that Scutaro's praise for the city of Toronto and manager Cito Gaston helped steer him toward accepting the Blue Jays' one-year, $3MM offer.
  • Braves minor league affiliates are looking downright NBA-esque after the team signed a fifth European player from their team academy in the Spanish Canary Islands. The latest addition is catcher Victor Velazquez, who will join outfielder Deion Galvan, catcher Roberto Machado, infielder Alejandro Sanchez Martinez, and Dutch outfielder Ruben Rijkhof in the Braves system.
  • The Yankees signed 19-year-old Dominican RHP Erik Olivo for $300K out of the Dominican Prospect League, according to the league's Web site. The DPL also announced last week that it would once again resume play on Thursday after having been banned from Major League-affiliated facilities for the time being over a feud with the MLB Dominican office and its overseer Sandy Alderson.

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