Five Facts About The Elias Rankings
If you’re interested in free agency or the draft, chances are you’ve heard about the Elias rankings. The Elias Sports Bureau takes player stats from the previous two seasons and classifies all players as Type A or B or unranked. If Type A or B free agents turn down their teams’ offers of arbitration to sign Major League deals elsewhere, the clubs collect picks in the upcoming Rule 4 draft.
But there’s a lot of history to the rankings, which are now in their 30th edition. Here are the essential facts about the Elias rankings system:
How did it all begin?
Free agent compensation was at the center of the 50-day strike that took place between the teams and the players in 1981. Baseball owners wanted compensation for losing top free agents, but the players association was reluctant to diminish free agents’ bargaining power. The association argued that teams would be less eager to bid on free agents if that meant surrendering a big league player or amateur draft choice.
The sides determined statistical formulas through collective bargaining and hired the Elias Sports Bureau to track players’ stats and provide rankings. The rankings aren’t exactly the same as they were 30 years ago and teams don’t approach the rankings as they did in the early ‘80s, but the Elias Bureau has tracked them the entire time.
Then and now
The rankings are not much different now than they were 30 years ago. Players are still ranked on their stats from the previous two seasons and divided by position (for example, catcher) or position group (for example, second base, third base and shortstop). The stats used have been tweaked, but the MLBPA and MLB have generally asked the Elias Bureau to track the same stats. For example, plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, home runs and RBI still figure prominently into the rankings for non-pitchers.
The rankings themselves haven’t changed much in 30 editions, but signing ranked free agents used to have significantly different consequences for clubs. Teams that signed ranked free agents once had to expose major league players to a winter draft. The clubs that had lost top free agents would select players from a pool created from unprotected players on the rosters of teams that decided to pursue that year’s crop of top available players. Teams could opt out and protect all of their players, but that would prevent them from signing the top names.
For example, the Mets decided to pursue free agents after the 1983 season and left Tom Seaver, unprotected in January of 1984. The White Sox pounced on the future Hall of Famer, who had just posted a 3.55 ERA (103 ERA+) in 231 innings in his age-38 season. Seaver would spend two and a half years in the White Sox rotation, pitching deep into games with ERAs slightly better than the league average.
Draft pick compensation, always an element of the system, became more prominent once major league players were no longer exposed to MLB teams.
The top 20% of players are still Type As if they’re free agents, but the remaining players are now categorized differently. There were once Type C free agents, but that classification no longer exists; it’s now Type A, Type B or unranked.
Changes in compensation
Today, teams obtain two draft choices for losing Type A free agents who turn down arbitration and one draft choice for Type Bs who turn down arbitration.
Teams once obtained amateur draft choices and professional players for losing Type A free agents, as explained above. But after the 1985 strike, big league players were no longer involved in compensation.
In the early 1980s, teams obtained two amateur draft choices for losing Type B free agents (now they just get one pick).
Bargaining Power
Players would occasionally use the rankings to prove their worth in negotiations with teams. After the 1986 season, for example, Blue Jays catcher Ernie Whitt was acting as his own agent. And as he explained to the Toronto Star, he used the Elias rankings in negotiations with Toronto GM Pat Gillick.
“Out of the 63 catchers who were ranked," Whitt said, "my client, Ernie Whitt, is No. 6. The rankings are based on the performances of the last two seasons – plate appearances, on-base percentages, RBIs, home runs, defense – the works. I got this information through the players' association. Naturally, I feel it's powerful information."
Next up…
Steve Hirdt has been a statistician at the Elias Sports Bureau since the rankings were implemented and he expects the bureau to continue producing the rankings.
“As long as they’re a part of the CBA and we’re baseball’s official statistician, we’ll produce them as we’ve continued to for the last 30 years,” Hirdt told MLBTR.
Data compiled from the Elias Sports Bureau and historical reports in the New York Times, the Toronto Star, the Globe and Mail and the Miami Herald.
Cubs Get Commitment From Matt Szczur
THURSDAY: The Cubs announced that they have reached an agreement with Szczur. He will fully commit to baseball and set his pro football career aside. "We look forward to supporting and fostering [Szczur's] continued development as a baseball player,” Cubs GM Jim Hendry said.
TUESDAY: Outfielder Matt Szczur has verbally agreed to a deal worth $1.5MM with the Cubs, tweets Jim Callis of Baseball America. Tony Pauline first reported the deal (on Twitter).
Szczur, 21, was the Cubs' fifth round pick in the 2010 draft. He agreed to a $100K signing bonus at the time and hit .347/.414/.465 in 116 A-ball plate appearances after signing. Szczur then returned to Villanova for his senior football season, and this new contract buys him away from a potential NFL career.
The original contract called for a $500K bonus if Szczur committed to the Cubs in writing before the NFL combine in February, but it's unclear if that money is still in play. Baseball America recently ranked Szczur as Chicago's seventh best prospect, though that was before the Matt Garza trade thinned their system.
Mets Sign Scott Hairston
The Mets have officially signed Scott Hairston, according to MLB.com's Anthony DiComo (on Twitter). Like his brother Jerry, who signed with the Nationals yesterday, Scott is a CAA client.
Hairston spent the 2010 season in San Diego, where he hit .210/.295/.346 in 336 plate appearances. The 30-year-old, who played all three outfield positions last year, has a .278/.331/.498 line against left-handed pitching in his career. Willie Harris and Hairston should provide manager Terry Collins with alternatives to Carlos Beltran, Angel Pagan and Jason Bay in the outfield.
AL Central Notes: Tigers, Meche, White Sox, Indians
The Twins grabbed headlines yesterday, finally agreeing to terms with Carl Pavano after months of discussions. Here's the latest on the Twins' AL Central division rivals:
- John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press explains that Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has avoided arbitration hearings since taking over the team.
- The Royals didn't expect Gil Meche to walk away from his $12MM salary without asking for some sort of settlement, but that's just what the right-hander did, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney. GM Dayton Moore says we shouldn't expect the Royals to go out and spend for the sake of spending, even though they have money.
- White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune that he likes the looks of Chicago's rebuilt bullpen, which features newcomers Will Ohman and Jesse Crain.
- Indians GM Chris Antonetti told MLB.com's Jordan Bastian that he would still like to add a starter who can provide reliability, stability and leadership. Manager Manny Acta and pitching coach Tim Belcher told Bastian that they expect a lot from the Indians' young starters.
The Rays’ 2011 Draft
The Rays will select eleven players before the Tigers choose once in this year’s amateur draft. It seems like Detroit’s at a colossal disadvantage, but the Tigers have shown that teams can draft well without first round selections.
They have spent big on players who price themsleves off of other teams’ draft boards in recent years. Detroit paid up for Rick Porcello and Jacob Turner after other teams shied away from their demands. This year, the Tigers spent $3.45MM on prep third baseman Nick Castellanos, a potential star who slipped out of the first round.
“I don’t think spending has anything to do with it at all,” Tigers executive David Chadd said after locking up Castellanos, Chance Ruffin and Drew Smyly last summer. “You have to take the right players. It comes down to the players, not the money.”
But one National League executive told MLBTR last month that it would be naive to leave money out of the equation. As the Tigers have shown, teams with more draft picks don't necessarily emerge with more talent.
“You’ve got to think about it like what’s your draft budget,” the executive said. "You have a finite amount of money that you can spend on the draft. And you can spend $15MM on 50 picks or you can spend $15MM on 55 picks.”
With ten selections before the beginning of the second round, the Rays will have the chance to infuse their highly-regarded farm system with even more high-upside players.
But like every team, they operate on a budget and in 2010 they allotted $7.15MM for draft bonuses. This year, it would cost $9.1MM for the Rays to spend slot money on the picks they have in the first, supplementary and second rounds alone.* So the picks themselves are not enough to assure the Rays of a strong draft.
“The way you get extra talent in the draft is either having extra picks that you paid slot for or by going over-slot for fewer picks,” the executive said. “But it’s really all about money you spend.”
The Rays will be picking early and often this June, an advantage that will give them more choice than any other team. But to fully take advantage of the many early picks, the team will have to spend more than it did in 2009 or 2010.
*Unless Felipe Lopez signs a major league deal. In that case the figure drops to $9MM. Thanks to MLBTR’s Mike Axisa for the calculations.
Mets Sign Chris Young
The Mets completed their one-year deal with Chris Young, according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork, who first reported the deal (Twitter links). The agreement guarantees the right-hander $1.1MM, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). Agent Lon Babby represents Young, who can earn up to $4.5MM if he reaches all the deal's incentives.
Injuries have limited Young to just 36 starts in the past three seasons, but he was durable and effective from 2005-07, when he started 30 or more games per season. He has always been hard to hit (7.4 H/9), but vulnerable to walks (3.5 BB/9). In 135 career starts (751 2/3 innings), the 6'10'' right-hander has a 3.80 ERA. He missed most of last season with a shoulder strain before pitching for the Padres in September.
Young will join Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey and Chris Capuano in the team's rotation if the pitchers remain healthy this spring. Johan Santana should join the group midway through the season.
The deal reunites Young with two of his former Padres bosses, current Mets execs Sandy Alderson and Paul DePodesta.
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Quick Hits: Duchscherer, Damon, Gorzelanny
Happy birthday to Astros manager Brad Mills, who was born 54 years ago today in Exeter, California. Here are some news items to help the 'Stros skipper celebrate his big day…
- Justin Duchscherer recently held private workout sessions for two American League clubs, tweets ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick. The Yankees, known to be interested in the right-hander, weren't one of the two teams. The Pirates, Red Sox and Athletics (Duchscherer's former club) have all expressed some degree of interest in the free agent hurler this winter.
- As part of an mailbag piece, MLB.com's Lyle Spencer discusses the Angels' search for a leadoff hitter and notes that "it doesn't appear that the Angels are in play" for Johnny Damon. Spencer also raises the point that if there actually is a rift between the Halos and Scott Boras, signing Damon could be an important olive branch between the club and the agent, esepcially given that Kendry Morales and Jered Weaver are both Boras clients.
- Did the Cubs really need to trade Tom Gorzelanny? ESPN.com's Justin Havens asks this question and points out that Gorzelanny and Matt Garza had surprisingly similar 2010 seasons.
- Sean Marshall's two-year contract is examined by Jack Moore of Fangraphs, who compares it to Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes' recent deals with the Athletics. While Moore thinks the Cubs should probably have not made a multi-year commitment to Marshall, "if a team is going to go multiple years with a reliever, better to do so with young, arbitration eligibles like Marshall than veterans like Balfour and Fuentes."
- MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez looks at how various teams filled the holes left behind by departing free agents this winter.
Diamondbacks Sign Cody Ransom
The Diamondbacks have signed Cody Ransom, according to MLB.com's transactions page. The veteran utility infielder has a career .702 OPS accumulated over eight Major League seasons with the Giants, Astros, Yankees and, most recently, the Phillies.
Ransom, who turns 35 in February, is a native of Mesa, Arizona. He is the second utilityman the D'Backs have signed in the past week, following their acquisition of Willie Bloomquist. This could be a minor league depth move for the Snakes, since the club already has Bloomquist, Tony Abreu, Ryan Roberts and others battling for a backup infield spot.
East Notes: Jones, Buchholz, Papelbon, Rizzo, Jays
Some news about the various beasts of the eastern baseball world…
- Adam Jones doesn't believe the Orioles discussed a multi-year extension with his CAA representation before the two sides agreed to a 2011 contract, the outfielder tells MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli.
- The Red Sox haven't discussed a long-term extension with Clay Buchholz this offseason, reports Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. Last September, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith explored what a Buchholz extension might cost Boston.
- Also from MacPherson, he points out that the Red Sox could wind up letting Jonathan Papelbon leave for nothing next winter. Papelbon would have to turn down an arbitration offer from Boston in order for the Sox to receive compensatory draft picks if he signed elsewhere as a free agent. However, by offering arbitration, the Red Sox would be making "a $14-$15MM gamble" that Papelbon wouldn't accept, since he's unlikely to find that much salary elsewhere.
- GM Mike Rizzo discussed several Nationals-related topics during a conference call with reporters today. Mark Zuckerman of the Nats Insider blog has a partial transcript.
- Alex Anthopoulos tells MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm his philosophy about not publicly disclosing whether or not the Jays are negotiating multi-year contracts, be they with Jose Bautista or any player.
- Brett Lawrie tells MinorLeagueBaseball.com's Robert Emrich that he has been working out at third base and believes he will play the position during Spring Training. When Toronto acquired Lawrie in the Shaun Marcum deal, there was speculation to whether Lawrie would stay at second base or be moved to third or even a corner outfield spot. The Jays are, obviously, set at second (at least in the short term) with Aaron Hill.
- In an interview with Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio (Twitter link), Phillies assistant GM Scott Proefrock says his club does not have to deal Joe Blanton or Kyle Kendrick. Proefrock also said the Phillies will look within the organization for right-handed hitting help.
- The Orioles are lacking in Major League third base depth, writes Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.